ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Develop a predictive dynamic model to estimate future scenarios for the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: A retrospective ecological study was conducted in 2013-2015 in the city of San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Secondary official data from the 58 municipalities making up the state of San Luis Potosí were analyzed. Linear correlation, multiple linear regression, and structural equations were carried out, and four predictive dynamic submodels were developed: T2DM, urban population, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and population aged 45-49 years. A holistic model was also developed. RESULTS: The structural model explains 27.2% of total variance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Percentage of inhabited dwellings that have television weighs 4.46 non-standard units on diabetes; that of urban population, 2.84; and that of population aged 45-49 years, 156.69. Estimated scenarios for T2DM per 100 000 population for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 were 1,052.4, 1,413.7, 1,850.1, and 2,351.1 respectively. CONCLUSION: The T2DM scenario shows exponential growth from 2000 to 2030. Risk factors according to the weight they represent in occurrence of the disease were: population aged 45-49 years, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and urban population.
ABSTRACT
Objetivo. Desarrollar un modelo dinámico predictivo para estimar escenarios futuros de la tasa de incidencia de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 (TIDM2). Métodos. Se realizó un estudio ecológico retrospectivo durante el periodo 2013-2015 en la ciudad de San Luis Potosí, México. Se analizaron datos oficiales secundarios de los 58 municipios que integran el estado de San Luis Potosí. Se aplicó la correlación lineal, la regresión lineal múltiple, ecuaciones estructurales, y se desarrollaron cuatro submodelos dinámicos predictivos: TIDM2, población urbana, viviendas particulares habitadas que cuentan con televisión y población de 45-49 años de edad. Se desarrolló también un modelo holístico. Resultados. El modelo estructural explica 27,2% del total de la varianza de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2. El porcentaje de viviendas habitadas que cuentan con televisión pesan 4,46 unidades no estándar sobre la diabetes, el de población urbana, 2,84 y el de población de 45-49 años, 156,69. Los escenarios estimados de la TIDM2 por 100 000 habitantes, para los años 2015, 2020, 2025 y 2030 fueron 1 052,4, 1 413,7, 1 850,1 y 2 351,1 respectivamente. Conclusión. El escenario de la TIDM2 muestra un crecimiento exponencial del año 2000 al 2030. Los factores de riesgo según el peso que representan para la ocurrencia de la enfermedad fueron: población de 45-49 años, viviendas particulares habitadas que cuentan con televisión y población urbana.
Objective. Develop a predictive dynamic model to estimate future scenarios for the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods. A retrospective ecological study was conducted in 2013-2015 in the city of San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Secondary official data from the 58 municipalities making up the state of San Luis Potosí were analyzed. Linear correlation, multiple linear regression, and structural equations were carried out, and four predictive dynamic submodels were developed: T2DM, urban population, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and population aged 45-49 years. A holistic model was also developed. Results. The structural model explains 27.2% of total variance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Percentage of inhabited dwellings that have television weighs 4.46 non-standard units on diabetes; that of urban population, 2.84; and that of population aged 45-49 years, 156.69. Estimated scenarios for T2DM per 100 000 population for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 were 1,052.4, 1,413.7, 1,850.1, and 2,351.1 respectively. Conclusion. The T2DM scenario shows exponential growth from 2000 to 2030. Risk factors according to the weight they represent in occurrence of the disease were: population aged 45-49 years, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and urban population.
Objetivo. Desenvolver um modelo dinâmico preditivo para estimar cenários futuros da taxa de incidência de diabetes mellitus tipo 2. Métodos. Foi realizado um estudo ecológico retrospectivo no período de 2013 a 2015 na cidade de San Luis Potosí, México. Foram analisados dados oficiais secundários dos 58 municípios que fazem parte do Estado de San Luis Potosí. Foi feita a análise de correlação linear, regressão linear múltipla e equações estruturais e construídos quatro submodelos dinâmicos preditivos: diabetes mellitus tipo 2, população urbana, domicílios particulares permanentes com televisão e população com idade de 45–49 anos. Foi também desenvolvido um modelo holístico. Resultados. O modelo estrutural explica 27,2% do total da variança da diabetes mellitus tipo 2. A porcentagem de domicílios permanentes com televisão tem o peso de 4,46 unidades não padronizadas na diabetes, 2,84 na população urbana e 156,69 na população de 45–49 anos. Os cenários estimados da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 por 100.000 habitantes para 2015, 2020, 2025 e 2030 foram de 1.052,4, 1.413,7, 1.850,1 e 2.351,1 respectivamente. Conclusão. O cenário da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 mostra um crescimento exponencial de 2000 a 2030. Os fatores de risco segundo o peso representado na ocorrência da doença foram população com 45–49 anos, domicílios particulares permanentes com televisão e população urbana.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus , Risk Factors , Forecasting , Mexico , Risk Factors , ForecastingABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The natural history and its modulation by treatments administered for immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in the clinical practice remains unknown. In addition, little information is available on the characteristics and management of ITP in Spain. METHODS: We conducted an observational, multicenter, registry in 70 Hematology Services from Spain between 2009 and 2011, which included children from 2 months of age and adults with primary ITP or another ITP diagnosed within the last 6 months (platelet count [PC] < 100 × 109/l). Patients were followed-up at 6 and 12 months. RESULTS: 484 patients were included (median [Q1, Q3] age 52 [29,74] years, 87.6% adults), 56% women, 10.5% with secondary ITP. Median (Q1, Q3) PC at diagnosis was 12 × 109/l (4, 32); 72% of patients had bleeding symptoms (62% cutaneous bleeding, 29% oral cavity bleeding, 18% epistaxis). 81% of patients with primary ITP received first-line treatment, mainly with corticosteroids (>6 weeks in 59% of cases), either alone (41%) or associated with intravenous immunoglobulin (33%). The response (≥30 × 109/L) to first-line treatment was 92%. A total of 19% of patients received second-line treatment and 6% additional treatments. At 12 months, 74% of primary ITP patients maintained a PC ≥ 100 × 109/L in absence of treatment (10% still had hemorrhagic manifestations). CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of Spanish ITP patients are comparable to those from other countries. Although a high response rate to first-line treatments is observed, at 1 year, the disease persists in around one quarter of patients. Overall therapeutic management in Spain conforms to current recommendations, except for an excessive duration of corticosteroids therapy.
Subject(s)
Purpura, Thrombocytopenic, Idiopathic/diagnosis , Purpura, Thrombocytopenic, Idiopathic/therapy , Adolescent , Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use , Adult , Aged , Algorithms , Biomarkers , Child , Child, Preschool , Comorbidity , Disease Management , Female , Hemorrhage/etiology , Humans , Immunoglobulins, Intravenous/therapeutic use , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Phenotype , Platelet Count , Purpura, Thrombocytopenic, Idiopathic/epidemiology , Purpura, Thrombocytopenic, Idiopathic/etiology , Registries , Spain/epidemiology , Treatment Outcome , Young AdultABSTRACT
RESUMEN Objetivo Desarrollar un modelo dinámico predictivo para estimar escenarios futuros de la tasa de incidencia de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 (TIDM2). Métodos Se realizó un estudio ecológico retrospectivo durante el periodo 2013-2015 en la ciudad de San Luis Potosí, México. Se analizaron datos oficiales secundarios de los 58 municipios que integran el estado de San Luis Potosí. Se aplicó la correlación lineal, la regresión lineal múltiple, ecuaciones estructurales, y se desarrollaron cuatro submodelos dinámicos predictivos: TIDM2, población urbana, viviendas particulares habitadas que cuentan con televisión y población de 45-49 años de edad. Se desarrolló también un modelo holístico. Resultados El modelo estructural explica 27,2% del total de la varianza de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2. El porcentaje de viviendas habitadas que cuentan con televisión pesan 4,46 unidades no estándar sobre la diabetes, el de población urbana, 2,84 y el de población de 45-49 años, 156,69. Los escenarios estimados de la TIDM2 por 100 000 habitantes, para los años 2015, 2020, 2025 y 2030 fueron 1 052,4, 1 413,7, 1 850,1 y 2 351,1 respectivamente. Conclusión El escenario de la TIDM2 muestra un crecimiento exponencial del año 2000 al 2030. Los factores de riesgo según el peso que representan para la ocurrencia de la enfermedad fueron: población de 45-49 años, viviendas particulares habitadas que cuentan con televisión y población urbana.
ABSTRACT Objective Develop a predictive dynamic model to estimate future scenarios for the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods A retrospective ecological study was conducted in 2013-2015 in the city of San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Secondary official data from the 58 municipalities making up the state of San Luis Potosí were analyzed. Linear correlation, multiple linear regression, and structural equations were carried out, and four predictive dynamic submodels were developed: T2DM, urban population, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and population aged 45-49 years. A holistic model was also developed. Results The structural model explains 27.2% of total variance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Percentage of inhabited dwellings that have television weighs 4.46 non-standard units on diabetes; that of urban population, 2.84; and that of population aged 45-49 years, 156.69. Estimated scenarios for T2DM per 100 000 population for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 were 1,052.4, 1,413.7, 1,850.1, and 2,351.1 respectively. Conclusion The T2DM scenario shows exponential growth from 2000 to 2030. Risk factors according to the weight they represent in occurrence of the disease were: population aged 45-49 years, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and urban population.
RESUMO Objetivo Desenvolver um modelo dinâmico preditivo para estimar cenários futuros da taxa de incidência de diabetes mellitus tipo 2. Métodos Foi realizado um estudo ecológico retrospectivo no período de 2013 a 2015 na cidade de San Luis Potosí, México. Foram analisados dados oficiais secundários dos 58 municípios que fazem parte do Estado de San Luis Potosí. Foi feita a análise de correlação linear, regressão linear múltipla e equações estruturais e construídos quatro submodelos dinâmicos preditivos: diabetes mellitus tipo 2, população urbana, domicílios particulares permanentes com televisão e população com idade de 45-49 anos. Foi também desenvolvido um modelo holístico. Resultados O modelo estrutural explica 27,2% do total da variança da diabetes mellitus tipo 2. A porcentagem de domicílios permanentes com televisão tem o peso de 4,46 unidades não padronizadas na diabetes, 2,84 na população urbana e 156,69 na população de 45-49 anos. Os cenários estimados da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 por 100.000 habitantes para 2015, 2020, 2025 e 2030 foram de 1.052,4, 1.413,7, 1.850,1 e 2.351,1 respectivamente. Conclusão O cenário da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 mostra um crescimento exponencial de 2000 a 2030. Os fatores de risco segundo o peso representado na ocorrência da doença foram população com 45-49 anos, domicílios particulares permanentes com televisão e população urbana.
