Plasma ß-Amyloid, Total-Tau, and Neurofilament Light Chain Levels and the Risk of Stroke: A Prospective Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To unravel whether Alzheimer disease-related pathology or neurodegeneration plays a role in stroke etiology, we determined the effect of plasma levels ß-amyloid (Aß), total-tau, and neurofilament light chain (NfL) on risk of stroke and its subtypes. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2005, we measured plasma Aß40, Aß42, total-tau, and NfL in 4,661 stroke-free participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We used Cox proportional-hazards models to determine the association between these markers with incident stroke for the entire cohort, per stroke subtype, and by median age, sex, APOE ε4 carriership, and education. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 10.8 ± 3.3 years, 379 participants had a first-ever stroke. Log2 total-tau at baseline showed a nonlinear association with risk of any stroke and ischemic stroke: compared to the first (lowest) quartile, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for the highest quartile total-tau was 1.68 (95% CI 1.18-2.40) for any stroke. Log2 NfL was associated with an increased risk of any stroke (HR per 1-SD increase 1.27, 95% CI 1.12-1.44), ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.14-2.12). Log2 Aß40, Aß42, and Aß42/40 ratio levels were not associated with stroke risk. DISCUSSION: Participants with higher total-tau and NfL at baseline had a higher risk of stroke and several stroke subtypes. These findings support the role of markers of neurodegeneration in the etiology of stroke. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that higher plasma levels of total-tau and NfL are associated with an increased risk of subsequent stroke.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and the risk of stroke in the Netherlands: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Apart from blood pressure level itself, variation in blood pressure has been implicated in the development of stroke in subgroups at high cardiovascular risk. We determined the association between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and stroke risk in the general population, taking into account the size and direction of variation and several time intervals prior to stroke diagnosis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From 1990 to 2016, we included 9,958 stroke-free participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study in the Netherlands. This is a prospective cohort study including participants aged 45 years and older. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability was calculated as absolute SBP difference divided by mean SBP over 2 sequential visits (median 4.6 years apart). Directional SBP variability was defined as SBP difference over 2 visits divided by mean SBP. Using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, mean SBP, and cardiovascular risk factors, hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke up to January 2016 were estimated per SD increase and in tertiles of variability. We also conducted analyses with 3-, 6-, and 9-year intervals between variability measurement and stroke assessment. These analyses were repeated for diastolic blood pressure (DBP). The mean age of the study population was 67.4 ± 8.2 years and 5,776 (58.0%) were women. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years, 971 (9.8%) participants had a stroke, including 641 ischemic, 89 hemorrhagic, and 241 unspecified strokes. SBP variability was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke (HR per SD 1.27, 95% CI 1.05-1.54, p = 0.02) and unspecified stroke (HR per SD 1.21, 95% CI 1.09-1.34, p < 0.001). The associations were stronger for all stroke subtypes with longer time intervals; the HR for any stroke was 1.29 (95% CI 1.21-1.36, p < 0.001) at 3 years, 1.47 (95% CI 1.35-1.59, p < 0.001) at 6 years, and 1.38 (95%CI 1.24-1.51, p < 0.001) at 9 years. For DBP variability, we found an association with unspecified stroke risk. Both the rise and fall of SBP and the fall of DBP were associated with an increased risk for unspecified stroke. Limitations of the study include that, due to an average interval of 4 years between visits, our findings may not be generalizable to blood pressure variability over shorter periods. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study, we found that visit-to-visit blood pressure variation was associated with an increased risk of unspecified and hemorrhagic stroke, independent of direction of variation or mean blood pressure.

Impaired fasting glucose, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease among women and men: the Rotterdam Study.

INTRODUCTION: Data on sex-specific lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) across the glycemic spectrum, in particular in impaired fasting glucose (IFG) state, are scarce. Whether overweight/obesity modifies the CVD burden also remains unclear. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using a prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, normoglycemia, IFG, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) were defined. First incident cases of coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke during a follow-up time until January 1, 2015 were identified and formed the composite CVD end point. The remaining lifetime risks of CVD were estimated in each glucose category at 55, 65, 75, and 85 years of age, using a modified version of survival analysis adjusted for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: Among 5698 women and 3803 men free of CVD at baseline, the mean age was 64.5 years (SD 9.6) and 60.0% of participants were women. At age 55 years, the remaining lifetime risk of any CVD event among women was 55.1% (95% CI 48.3 to 61.9) for IFG, compared with 52.7% (95% CI 49.5 to 55.9) for normoglycemia and 61.5% (95% CI 54.7 to 68.3) for T2D. For men, the remaining lifetime risk of any CVD event was 62.1% (95% CI 55.2 to 69.1) for IFG, compared with 59.1% (95% CI 55.5 to 62.7) for normoglycemia and 60.3% (95% CI 53.1 to 67.5) for T2D. At age 55 years, the lifetime risk for incident CVD was higher, although not statistically significant, among women and men with IFG who were overweight or had obesity compared with normal-weight women and men. CONCLUSION: IFG carried a large lifetime risk for incident CVD among both women and men compared with normoglycemia. In particular among men, the risk was comparable to that of T2D. Overweight/Obesity modifies the risk and conferred a larger burden of lifetime CVD risk among women and men with IFG.

Long-term trajectories of decline in cognition and daily functioning before and after stroke.

OBJECTIVE: Although knowledge on poststroke cognitive and functional decline is increasing, little is known about the possible decline of these functions before stroke. We determined the long-term trajectories of cognition and daily functioning before and after stroke. METHODS: Between 1990 and 2016, we repeatedly assessed cognition (Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), 15-Word Learning, Letter-Digit Substitution, Stroop, Verbal Fluency, Purdue Pegboard) and basic and instrumental activities of daily living (BADL and IADL) in 14 712 participants within the population-based Rotterdam Study. Incident stroke was assessed through continuous monitoring of medical records until 2018. We matched participants with incident stroke to stroke-free participants (1:3) based on sex and birth year. Trajectories of cognition and daily functioning of patients who had a stroke 10 years before and 10 years after stroke and the corresponding trajectories of stroke-free individuals were constructed using adjusted linear mixed effects models. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 12.5±6.8 years, a total of 1662 participants suffered a first-ever stroke. Patients who had a stroke deviated from stroke-free controls up to 10 years before stroke diagnosis in cognition and daily functioning. Significant deviations before stroke were seen in scores of MMSE (6.4 years), Stroop (5.7 years), Purdue Pegboard (3.8 years) and BADL and IADL (2.2 and 3.0 years, respectively). CONCLUSION: Patients who had a stroke have steeper declines in cognition and daily functioning up to 10 years before their first-ever stroke compared with stroke-free individuals. Our findings suggest that accumulating intracerebral pathology already has a clinical impact before stroke.

Circulatory MicroRNAs as Potential Biomarkers for Stroke Risk: The Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are post-transcriptionally regulators of gene expression that can be released extracellularly upon pathophysiological processes. By complementary binding of target transcripts, miRNAs can modulate the expression of an abundance of genes. Increasing evidence recognize miRNAs as promising biomarkers for complex traits, including cardiovascular disease and stroke. We conducted a longitudinal study to determine the association between circulatory miRNAs and incident stroke in a population-based setting. METHODS: Next-generation sequencing was used to measure expression levels of 2083 miRNAs in plasma samples, collected between 2002 and 2005, from 1914 stroke-free participants of the Rotterdam Study. Participants were assessed for incident stroke through continuous monitoring of medical records until January 1, 2016. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for age, sex, and vascular risk factors were used to investigate the association between the levels of 591 miRNAs well-expressed in plasma and incident stroke. Furthermore, stroke subtype analysis was performed to assess the link between identified miRNAs and ischemic, hemorrhagic, and unspecified stroke. Subsequently, post hoc analyses were conducted to gain insight into the association between putative target genes of miRNAs and stroke. RESULTS: Of 1914 participants (mean age 71.5 years ±7.6; 57.7% women), 138 were diagnosed with incident stroke during a mean follow-up of 9.7±3.2 years. After adjusting for potential confounders, we found plasma levels of 3 miRNAs to be associated with incident stroke (false discovery rate-adjusted P<0.05). These include miR-6124 (hazard ratio, 1.66 [95% CI, 1.31-2.09]), miR-5196-5p (hazard ratio, 1.90 [95% CI, 1.39-2.61]), and miR-4292 (hazard ratio, 2.65 [95% CI, 1.62-4.34]). In silico analysis of the putative target genes of these miRNAs showed associations of variants in several target genes with stroke. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that plasma levels of 3 miRNAs are associated with the risk of stroke, proposing them as potential biomarkers for early detection of the disease.

Orthostatic Hypotension: A Prodromal Marker of Parkinson's Disease?

BACKGROUND: Orthostatic hypotension is common in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). However, it remains unknown whether orthostatic hypotension is a marker of prodromal PD or more advanced disease. The objectives of this study were to assess whether orthostatic hypotension is a prodromal marker of PD in the general population. METHODS: This study was embedded in the Rotterdam Study, a large prospective population-based cohort in the Netherlands. We measured orthostatic hypotension in 6910 participants. First, we determined the relation between prevalent PD and orthostatic hypotension using logistic regression. Second, we followed PD-free participants for the occurrence of PD until 2016 and studied the association between orthostatic hypotension and the risk of PD using Cox proportional hazards models. All models were adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean age ± standard deviation of the study population was 69.0 ± 8.8 years, and 59.1% were women. Orthostatic hypotension was present in 1245 participants (19.8%), and 62 participants (1.0%) had PD at the time of orthostatic hypotension measurement. Participants with PD were significantly more likely to have orthostatic hypotension (odds ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-3.24). During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 16.1 years (8.5-22.7 years), 122 participants were diagnosed with incident PD. Orthostatic hypotension at baseline was not associated with an increased risk of PD (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-1.58). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that orthostatic hypotension is common in patients with PD, but that orthostatic hypotension is not associated with an increased risk of PD and thus is not a prodromal marker of PD in the general population. © 2020 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Physical Exercise Interventions Targeting Cognitive Functioning and the Cognitive Domains in Nondementia Samples: A Systematic Review of Meta-Analyses.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether physical exercise interventions improve cognitive functioning in nondementia populations. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of meta-analyses including only randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Two reviewers completed a systematic search of PubMed, Embase, PsychInfo, and Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials. Study characteristics, effect size data, and heterogeneity estimates were extracted and presented in tabular form. Methodological quality was assessed by 2 reviewers using the AMSTAR-2 checklist. The validity of results was considered based on AMSTAR-2 scores and study characteristics. RESULTS: We included 11 meta-analyses: 6 focused on disease-free older adults and 5 on mild cognitive impairment (MCI) excluding dementia. These meta-analyses summarized 97 unique RCTs. Methodological quality ranged from critically low to high. For overall cognitive functioning, which was the outcome of 6 meta-analyses, 1 showed improvement due to exercise interventions in disease-free older adults (g = 0.29, P < .01), while 2 reported nonsignificant effects. In patients with MCI, 3 meta-analyses reported significant benefits of exercise interventions on overall cognitive functioning (g = 0.25-0.57, P < .01). For cognitive domains such as attention and memory, there was limited evidence of beneficial effects of exercise demonstrated in either disease-free or MCI samples. CONCLUSIONS: Exercise may improve overall cognitive functioning in disease-free older adults, but there is too little high-quality evidence to conclude whether this is achieved through improvement in any of the specific cognitive domains assessed. There is clearer evidence that exercise may improve cognitive functioning in MCI, but again there is limited evidence across most cognitive domains.

Prion protein codon 129 polymorphism in mild cognitive impairment and dementia: the Rotterdam Study.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is a rare, fatal, neurodegenerative disease caused by the accumulation of abnormally folded prion proteins. The common polymorphism at codon 129 (methionine/valine) in the prion protein (PRNP) gene is the most important determinant of genetic susceptibility. Homozygotes of either allele have a higher risk of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Various studies suggest that this polymorphism is also involved in other forms of dementia. We studied the association between the codon 129 polymorphism of the PRNP gene and mild cognitive impairment in 3605 participants from the Rotterdam Study using logistic regression analyses. Subsequently, we studied the association between this polymorphism and incident dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, in 11 070 participants using Cox proportional hazard models. Analyses were adjusted for age and sex. We found the prevalence of mild cognitive impairment to be higher for carriers of the methionine/methionine genotype (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.78; P = 0.005) as well as for carriers of the valine/valine genotype (odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.97; P = 0.08). The codon 129 polymorphism was not associated with the risk of incident dementia or Alzheimer's disease. In conclusion, we found a statistically significant higher prevalence of mild cognitive impairment in carriers of the methionine/methionine genotype in the codon 129 polymorphism of the PRNP gene within this population-based study. No associations were found between the codon 129 polymorphism and dementia or Alzheimer's disease in the general population.

Life expectancy of parkinsonism patients in the general population.

INTRODUCTION: Detailed data on the life expectancy of patients with parkinsonism from the general population are largely lacking. This study aimed to determine the absolute life expectancy of patients newly-diagnosed with parkinsonism. METHODS: This study was part of the Rotterdam Study, an ongoing, population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. We included 12,789 participants of 50 years and older, free of parkinsonism. Patients diagnosed with parkinsonism were matched to controls on sex, birth year, dementia status, cancer status, and coronary heart disease status. We used Gompertz regression and lifetables to estimate the remaining life expectancy per year of age. RESULTS: The mean age of our study population was 65.0 (SD 9.7) years and 57.6% were women. During an average follow-up of 12 years, 297 participants were diagnosed with parkinsonism. The mean age at parkinsonism diagnosis was 78.6 (SD 8.1) years. Once diagnosed with parkinsonism, the life expectancy was lower than matched controls across a wide age range. At 65 years, the life expectancy of patients with parkinsonism was reduced with 6.7 [95% CI: 2.4;10.7] years compared to controls. At 85, the difference in life expectancy was 1.2 [95% CI: -2.2;4.5] years compared to controls. CONCLUSION: Patients diagnosed with parkinsonism have a reduced life expectancy compared to their peers in the general population. The absolute life expectancy is mainly reduced if parkinsonism is diagnosed before the age of 70.

Quantitative Gait Impairments in Patients With Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: A Population-Based Approach.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Gait is a complex process involving various cortical and subcortical brain regions. An acute stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) may disrupt white and gray matter integrity and, therefore, affect gait in patients without evident neurological signs. We determined whether patients with stroke and TIA experience subtle changes in global gait and several independent gait domains. METHODS: In the population-based Rotterdam Study, 4456 participants (median age, 65 years; 55% women) underwent detailed quantitative gait assessment (GAITRite) between 2009 and 2016. We summarized 30 gait parameters into a global gait score and 7 mutually independent gait domains. First, we assessed the association between prior stroke or TIA and global and domain-specific gait using linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, vascular risk factors, and cognition. Subsequently, we repeated the analysis stratified by the presence of different neurological symptoms in a subgroup of participants with ischemic stroke after study entry. RESULTS: Compared with participants without prior stroke, patients with stroke had a worse global gait (SD, -0.49 [95% CI, -0.64 to -0.34]), especially in the gait domains Pace, Phases, and Turning. The detrimental effect of stroke on gait was amplified in participants with worse cognition. No gait differences were found between participants with and without prior TIA. Ischemic stroke patients without lower limb weakness, loss of coordination, or visuospatial problems still had a worse gait compared with participants without stroke. Stratification by different stroke symptoms showed that different gait domains were affected in each group. CONCLUSIONS: Prior stroke without neurological signs that affect gait is still associated with gait difficulties compared with individuals without stroke. Our study suggests that stroke not only has a direct impact on gait through neurological impairments but also includes an indirect effect possibly through disruption of gray and white matter integrity and accelerated neurodegeneration.

Unspecified Strokes: Time Trends, Determinants, and Long-Term Prognosis in the General Population.

INTRODUCTION: In the absence of neuroimaging, a stroke is typically labelled as unspecified. While the majority of clinic-based stroke research focuses on hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke, in the general population, a substantial proportion of strokes remains unspecified. OBJECTIVE: To investigate time trends in the occurrence and determinants of unspecified strokes and differences in patient characteristics and survival compared to ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. METHODS: We included 1,546 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study who suffered a first-ever stroke during follow-up (1990-2016). We calculated the proportion of unspecified strokes per year and compared their characteristics between 3 time periods (1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2016) using a chi-square test, and furthermore investigated differences between unspecified, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke in patient characteristics and survival using age- and sex-adjusted survival curves. RESULTS: The occurrence of unspecified stroke among all strokes decreased from 75% in 1990 to 16% in 2016. Compared to the first time period (1991-1999), diagnosis of unspecified strokes was more often done by nursing home physicians (13 vs. 40%) and unspecified stroke patients had more often dementia (30 vs. 43%) in the last time period (2010-2016). Compared to patients with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, patients with unspecified stroke were on average older (84.3 vs. 78.5 years) and had more often physical impairments and dementia. Furthermore, patients with unspecified stroke had a lower survival probability up to 10 years after stroke than those with ischemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of unspecified strokes decreased drastically from 75 to 16% in the last decades. Patients who do not undergo neuroimaging and therefore are classified as unspecified stroke represent an older, more frail patient group that suffers more often from multimorbidities and poor long-term prognosis than those who do undergo neuroimaging and are thus classified as ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke.

Time Trends in Survival Following First Hemorrhagic or Ischemic Stroke Between 1991 and 2015 in the Rotterdam Study.

Background and Purpose- The introduction of stroke units and the implementation of evidence-based interventions have been a breakthrough in the management of patients with stroke over the past decade. Survival following stroke is an important indicator in monitoring stroke burden. Recent data on survival by stroke subtype in the general population is scarce. We assessed (1) recent temporal time trends in survival; (2) age-standardized death rates; (3) survival probabilities at 6 months, 1, 2, and 3 years following first hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke. Methods- Within the population-based Rotterdam Study between 1991 and 2015, we assessed time trends in survival among 162 with first-ever hemorrhagic and 988 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke across 3 time periods (1991-1998; 1999-2007; 2008-2015) using time-varying Cox regression model and calculated age-standardized death rates according to the European 2010 census population. Results- In the hemorrhagic stroke group, a total of 144 deaths occurred during 386 person-years. Following a hemorrhagic stroke, we observed similar mortality rates over the years with 30 per 100 person-years in 2015 compared with 25/100 person-years in 1991. Similarly, compared with the earliest study period (1991-1998), mortality rates remained unchanged in the latest study period (2008-2015; hazard ratio, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.61-1.57]; P=0.93). In the ischemic stroke group, a total of 711 deaths occurred during 4897 person-years. We observed a decline in mortality rates in 2015 (11 per 100 person-years) compared with 1991 (29/100 person-years). This translated to favorable trends in the latest study period 2008 to 2015 (hazard ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.56-0.90]; P<0.01). Conclusions- Survival following ischemic stroke has improved over the past decade, while no change was observed in survival following hemorrhagic stroke.

Vitamin D Status and Risk of Stroke: The Rotterdam Study.

Background and Purpose- Recent findings suggest that vitamin D, a neuroprotective prohormone, is involved in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. However, previous studies investigating the association between vitamin D and stroke have shown inconsistent findings. In view of these discrepancies, we determined the association of vitamin D status with stroke using data from a population-based study. Methods- Within the RS (Rotterdam Study), an ongoing prospective population-based study, we measured serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations between 1997 and 2008 in 9680 participants (56.8% women) aged ≥45 years. We assessed a history of stroke at baseline and subsequently followed for incident stroke until January 1, 2016. Regression models were used to investigate the association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D with prevalent and incident stroke separately, adjusted for age, sex, study cohort, season of blood sampling, and other cardiovascular risk factors. Results- Of 9680 participants, 339 had a history of stroke at baseline. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was associated with prevalent stroke, adjusted odds ratio per SD decrease, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.14-1.51. After excluding participants with prevalent stroke, we followed 9338 participants for a total of 98 529 person-years. During follow-up, 735 participants developed a stroke. Lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was not associated with a higher stroke risk, adjusted hazard ratio per SD decrease, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.97-1.16. However, severe vitamin D deficiency did show a significant association: hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.50. Conclusions- In this population-based cohort, we found an association between vitamin D and prevalent stroke. Only severe vitamin D deficiency was associated with incident stroke. This suggests that lower vitamin D levels do not lead to a higher stroke risk but are instead a consequence of stroke.

Genetic variation underlying cognition and its relation with neurological outcomes and brain imaging.

Cognition in adults shows variation due to developmental and degenerative components. A recent genome-wide association study identified genetic variants for general cognitive function in 148 independent loci. Here, we aimed to elucidate possible developmental and neurodegenerative pathways underlying these genetic variants by relating them to functional, clinical and neuroimaging outcomes. This study was conducted within the population-based Rotterdam Study (N=11,496, mean age 65.3±9.9 years, 58.0% female). We used lead variants for general cognitive function to construct a polygenic score (PGS), and additionally excluded developmental variants at multiple significance thresholds. A higher PGS was related to more years of education (ß=0.29, p=4.3x10-7) and a larger intracranial volume (ß=0.05, p=7.5x10-4). To a smaller extent, the PGS was associated with less cognitive decline (ßΔG-factor=0.03, p=1.3x10-3), which became non-significant after adjusting for education (p=1.6x10-2). No associations were found with daily functioning, dementia, parkinsonism, stroke or microstructural white matter integrity. Excluding developmental variants attenuated nearly all associations. In conclusion, this study suggests that the genetic variants identified for general cognitive function are acting mainly through the developmental pathway of cognition. Therefore, cognition, assessed cross-sectionally, seems to have limited value as a biomarker for neurodegeneration.

Lifetime risk and multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases and disease-free life expectancy in the general population: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%-95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%-93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3-11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2-6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.

Lifetime risk of common neurological diseases in the elderly population.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the burden of common neurological disease in older adults in terms of lifetime risks, including their co-occurrence and preventive potential, within a competing risk framework. METHODS: Within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, we studied lifetime risk of dementia, stroke and parkinsonism between 1990 and 2016. Among 12 102 individuals (57.7% women) aged ≥45 years free from these diseases at baseline, we studied co-occurrence, and quantified the combined, and disease-specific remaining lifetime risk of these diseases at various ages for men and women separately. We also projected effects on lifetime risk of hypothetical preventive strategies that delay disease onset by 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. RESULTS: During follow-up of up to 26 years (156 088 person-years of follow-up), 1489 individuals were diagnosed with dementia, 1285 with stroke and 263 with parkinsonism. Of these individuals, 438 (14.6%) were diagnosed with multiple diseases. Women were almost twice as likely as men to be diagnosed with both stroke and dementia during their lifetime. The lifetime risk for any of these diseases at age 45 was 48.2% (95% CI 47.1% to 51.5%) in women and 36.2% (35.1% to 39.3%) in men. This difference was driven by a higher risk of dementia as the first manifesting disease in women than in men (25.9% vs 13.7%; p<0.001), while this was similar for stroke (19.0%vs18.9% in men) and parkinsonism (3.3% vs 3.6% in men). Preventive strategies that delay disease onset with 1 to 3 years could theoretically reduce lifetime risk for developing any of these diseases by 20%-50%. CONCLUSION: One in two women and one in three men will develop dementia, stroke or parkinsonism during their life. These findings strengthen the call for prioritising the focus on preventive interventions at population level which could substantially reduce the burden of common neurological diseases in the ageing population.

Endovascular thrombectomy in patients with acute ischaemic stroke and atrial fibrillation: a MR CLEAN subgroup analysis.

AIMS: Endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) improves outcome after acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) caused by an intracranial occlusion. The aim of the present study was to determine whether atrial fibrillation (AF) modifies the effect of EVT. METHODS AND RESULTS: MR CLEAN was a randomised clinical trial of EVT plus usual care vs. usual care alone for patients with an intracranial occlusion. The primary outcome was the modified Rankin scale (mRS) score at 90 days. The primary effect parameter was the adjusted common odds ratio (acOR), estimated with ordinal logistic regression and adjusted for age and stroke severity at baseline. Treatment effect modification by AF was assessed using a multiplicative interaction variable. We included all 500 patients. In total, 135 (27%) had AF. These patients were older, had a worse pre-stroke mRS score and were less often treated with IV alteplase. In patients without AF, the estimated treatment effect was similar to the overall treatment effect (acOR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3 to 2.7). In patients with AF, the treatment effect appeared lower (acOR 1.0, 95% CI: 0.6 to 1.9). The interaction of treatment effect and AF was not significant (p=0.09, after adjustment p=0.12). CONCLUSIONS: This study did not show significant difference in the EVT effect between acute stroke patients with and those without AF.