Confined animal feeding operations as amplifiers of influenza.

Influenza pandemics occur when a novel influenza strain, often of animal origin, becomes transmissible between humans. Domestic animal species such as poultry or swine in confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) could serve as local amplifiers for such a new strain of influenza. A mathematical model is used to examine the transmission dynamics of a new influenza virus among three sequentially linked populations: the CAFO species, the CAFO workers (the bridging population), and the rest of the local human population. Using parameters based on swine data, simulations showed that when CAFO workers comprised 15-45% of the community, human influenza cases increased by 42-86%. Successful vaccination of at least 50% of CAFO workers cancelled the amplification. A human influenza epidemic due to a new virus could be locally amplified by the presence of confined animal feeding operations in the community. Thus vaccination of CAFO workers would be an effective use of a pandemic vaccine.

Competing species models with an infectious disease.

The frequency-dependent (standard) form of the incidence is used for the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease in a competing species model. In the global analysis of the SIS model with the birth rate independent of the population size, a modified reproduction number R(1) determines the asymptotic behavior, so that the disease dies out if R(1) 1. Because the disease-reduced reproduction and disease-related death rates are often different in two competing species, a shared disease can change the outcome of the competition. Models of SIR and SIRS type are also considered. A key result in all of these models with the frequency-dependent incidence is that the disease must either die out in both species or remain endemic in both species.

Species coexistence and periodicity in host-host-pathogen models.

Models for the transmission of an infectious disease in one and two host populations with and without self-regulation are analyzed. Many unusual behaviors such as multiple positive equilibria and periodic solutions occur in previous models that use the mass-action (density-dependent) incidence. In contrast, the models formulated using the frequency-dependent (standard) incidence have the behavior of a classic endemic model, since below the threshold, the disease dies out, and above the threshold, the disease persists and the infectious fractions approach an endemic equilibrium. The results given here reinforce previous examples in which there are major differences in behavior between models using mass-action and frequency-dependent incidences.

A predator-prey model with infected prey.

A predator-prey model with logistic growth in the prey is modified to include an SIS parasitic infection in the prey with infected prey being more vulnerable to predation. Thresholds are identified which determine when the predator population survives and when the disease remains endemic. For some parameter values the greater vulnerability of the infected prey allows the predator population to persist, when it would otherwise become extinct. Also the predation on the more vulnerable prey can cause the disease to die out, when it would remain endemic without the predators.

Adolescent and adult pertussis vaccination: computer simulations of five new strategies.

Approximately one million adult pertussis cases occur annually in the US, and infants still die from pertussis. Computer simulations were used to predict the impact of vaccination of children, adults and/or adolescents, and household members of newborns (cocoon strategy). Childhood vaccination greatly reduced cases in children, but increased the incidence in adolescents and adults. Routine adolescent and adult vaccination had a large direct effect, whereas the cocoon strategy had a predominantly indirect effect on young infants. The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent a case of typical pertussis in the entire population was lowest for the adolescent strategy. The cocoon strategy had the lowest NNV to prevent a case of typical pertussis in young infants. The current vaccination schedule, local epidemiological data, age-specific cost of pertussis cases, and accessibility of the target population will determine which strategy has the highest likelihood of success in achieving the public health goal.

Using computer simulations to compare pertussis vaccination strategies in Australia.

High levels of notified pertussis in adolescents and adults, persisting severe disease (hospitalization and deaths) in infants despite high childhood immunization coverage, together with the availability of adult-formulated pertussis vaccines, have made alternate strategies for vaccine control of pertussis an important issue in Australia. An age-structured computer simulation model was used to compare the likely effects of adopting different vaccination strategies in Australia on pertussis transmission by age group over a 50 year time period. Epidemiological parameters and vaccination coverage in Australia were estimated from previous pertussis modeling studies and existing data. In the simulations, replacing the pertussis booster at 18 months with a booster dose for adolescents at an age between 12 and 17 years, assuming 80% coverage, led to decreases in pertussis cases of 30% in children of ages 0-23 months (who have the highest complication rates) and of 25% in adolescents, but an increase of 15% in cases in 2-4-year-old children. The simulations did not suggest any shift of pertussis cases into the adult child-bearing years. Varying parameter values in the simulations in a series of sensitivity analyses showed the model predictions to be robust over a plausible range. The results of these simulations suggest that the recent change in the Australian pertussis vaccination schedule, replacing the 18 month dose with a pertussis booster in 15-17-year-old adolescents, is very likely to reduce overall pertussis incidence in Australia without increasing the cost of the current vaccine program.