An overview of the general practice nurse workforce in Australia, 2012-15.

Several surveys of the general practice nurse (GPN) workforce have been undertaken in Australia over the last decade, but they have limitations, which mean that the workforce is not well-understood. The aim of this study is to describe the profile of the GPN workforce using the dataset available through the Australia Health Practitioner Registration Agency and to explore how it differs from the non-GPN nursing workforce, and if this workforce is changing over time. Data from labour force surveys conducted from 2012 to 2015 were used. Variables examined were age group, gender, remoteness area, hours worked, nurse type (enrolled (EN) or registered (RN)), years in the workforce and also intended years of work before exiting the workforce. When compared with the broader nursing workforce, a greater proportion of GPNs in 2015 were older (60 v. 51%), worked part-time (65 v. 48%) and worked in regional areas (35 v. 26%). Additionally, the characteristics of GPNs has changed between 2012 and 2015, with an increased proportion of younger nurses, more registered nurses and fewer working in remote areas. To ensure a sustainable workforce, particularly in rural and remote areas, strategies to recruit and retain this workforce will be needed.

The never ending road: improving, adapting and refining a needs-based model to estimate future general practitioner requirements in two Australian states.

Background: Health workforce planning models have been developed to estimate the future health workforce requirements for a population whom they serve and have been used to inform policy decisions. Objectives: To adapt and further develop a need-based GP workforce simulation model to incorporate current and estimated geographic distribution of patients and GPs. Methods: A need-based simulation model that estimates the supply of GPs and levels of services required in South Australia (SA) was adapted and applied to the Western Australian (WA) workforce. The main outcome measure was the differences in the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs supplied and required from 2013 to 2033. Results: The base scenario estimated a shortage of GPs in WA from 2019 onwards with a shortage of 493 FTE GPs in 2033, while for SA, estimates showed an oversupply over the projection period. The WA urban and rural models estimated an urban shortage of GPs over this period. A reduced international medical graduate recruitment scenario resulted in estimated shortfalls of GPs by 2033 for WA and SA. The WA-specific scenarios of lower population projections and registrar work value resulted in a reduced shortage of FTE GPs in 2033, while unfilled training places increased the shortfall of FTE GPs in 2033. Conclusions: The simulation model incorporates contextual differences to its structure that allows within and cross jurisdictional comparisons of workforce estimations. It also provides greater insights into the drivers of supply and demand and the impact of changes in workforce policy, promoting more informed decision-making.

The general practice nurse workforce: Estimating future supply

BACKGROUND: General practice nurses (GPNs) form an important component of the general practice workforce in Australia. Despite this, there is limited research on estimating their future supply. This study aims to estimate the future GPN supply and the impact of a range of policy and non-policy changes on workforce balances. METHOD: A simulation model of the GPN workforce over the period 2012­25 was developed, with scenario analysis used to assess the effects of policy and non­policy scenarios. RESULTS: The baseline scenario estimated a shortage of 814 full-time GPNs by 2025. The non-policy single scenarios all projected shortages by 2025. The worst-case scenario was reduced working hours and best-case scenario was the retention scenario. DISCUSSION: Over the 13-year period considered, the Australian practice nurse workforce is predicted to move into a position of shortage. Retention and recruitment policies are shown to be effective in addressing these shortages.

How evidence-based workforce planning in Australia is informing policy development in the retention and distribution of the health workforce.

BACKGROUND: Australia's health workforce is facing significant challenges now and into the future. Health Workforce Australia (HWA) was established by the Council of Australian Governments as the national agency to progress health workforce reform to address the challenges of providing a skilled, innovative and flexible health workforce in Australia. HWA developed Australia's first major, long-term national workforce projections for doctors, nurses and midwives over a planning horizon to 2025 (called Health Workforce 2025; HW 2025), which provided a national platform for developing policies to help ensure Australia's health workforce meets the community's needs. METHODS: A review of existing workforce planning methodologies, in concert with the project brief and an examination of data availability, identified that the best fit-for-purpose workforce planning methodology was the stock and flow model for estimating workforce supply and the utilisation method for estimating workforce demand. Scenario modelling was conducted to explore the implications of possible alternative futures, and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to various input parameters. Extensive consultation was conducted to test the methodology, data and assumptions used, and also influenced the scenarios selected for modelling. Additionally, a number of other key principles were adopted in developing HW 2025 to ensure the workforce projections were robust and able to be applied nationally. RESULTS: The findings from HW 2025 highlighted that a 'business as usual' approach to Australia's health workforce is not sustainable over the next 10 years, with a need for co-ordinated, long-term reforms by government, professions and the higher education and training sector for a sustainable and affordable health workforce. The main policy levers identified to achieve change were innovation and reform, immigration, training capacity and efficiency and workforce distribution. CONCLUSION: While HW 2025 has provided a national platform for health workforce policy development, it is not a one-off project. It is an ongoing process where HWA will continue to develop and improve health workforce projections incorporating data and methodology improvements to support incremental health workforce changes.