Trends in Survival for Adult Organ Transplantation.

Objective: Intent-to-treat analysis follows patients from listing to death, regardless of their transplant status, and aims to provide a more holistic scope of the progress made in adult solid-organ transplantation. Background: Many studies have shown progress in waitlist and post-transplant survival for adult kidney, liver, heart, and lung transplants, but there is a need to provide a more comprehensive perspective of transplant outcomes for patients and their families. Methods: Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to analyze factors contributing to intent-to-treat survival in 813,862 adults listed for kidney, liver, heart, and lung transplants. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to examine changes in waitlist, post-transplant, and intent-to-treat survival. Transplantation rates were compared using χ2 tests. Results: Intent-to-treat survival has steadily increased for liver, heart, and lung transplants. The percentage of patients transplanted within 1 year significantly increased for heart (57.4% from 52.9%) and lung (73.5% from 33.2%). However, the percentage of patients transplanted within 1 year significantly decreased from 35.8% to 21.2% for kidney transplant. Notably, intent-to-treat survival has decreased for kidneys despite increases in waitlist and post-transplant survival, likely because of the decreased transplant rate. Conclusion: Intent-to-treat survival steadily improved for liver, heart, and lung transplant over the 30-year study period. Continued advancements in allocation policy, immunosuppression, and improved care of patients on the waitlist may contribute to further progress in outcomes of all organs, but the increasing discrepancy in supply and demand of donor kidneys is alarming and has impeded the progress of kidney intent-to-treat survival.

Recipient Age Predicts 20-Year Survival in Pediatric Liver Transplant.

Introduction: Pediatric liver transplant recipients have demonstrated excellent long-term survival. The purpose of this analysis is to investigate factors associated with 20-year survival to identify areas for improvement in patient care. Methods: Kaplan-Meier with log-rank test as well as univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to retrospectively analyze 4,312 liver transplant recipients under the age of 18 between September 30, 1987 and March 9, 1998. Our primary endpoint was 20-year survival among one-year survival. Results: Logistic regression analysis identified recipient age as a significant risk factor, with recipients below 5 years old having a higher 20-year survival rate (p < 0.001). A preoperative primary diagnosis of a metabolic dysfunction was found to be protective compared to other diagnoses (OR 1.64, CI 1.20-2.25). African-American ethnicity (OR 0.71, CI 0.58-0.87) was also found to be a risk factor for mortality. Technical variant allografts (neither living donor nor cadaveric) were not associated with increased or decreased rates of 20-year survival. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that long-term survival is inversely correlated with recipient age following pediatric liver transplant. If validated with further studies, this conclusion may have profound implications on the timing of pediatric liver transplantation.

Trends in Survival for Pediatric Transplantation.

OBJECTIVES: Progress in pediatric transplantation measured in the context of waitlist and posttransplant survival is well documented but falls short of providing a complete perspective for children and their families. An intent-to-treat analysis, in which we measure survival from listing to death regardless of whether a transplant is received, provides a more comprehensive perspective through which progress can be examined. METHODS: Univariable and multivariable Cox regression was used to analyze factors impacting intent-to-treat survival in 12 984 children listed for heart transplant, 17 519 children listed for liver transplant, and 16 699 children listed for kidney transplant. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to assess change in waitlist, posttransplant, and intent-to-treat survival. Wait times and transplant rates were compared by using χ2 tests. RESULTS: Intent-to-treat survival steadily improved from 1987 to 2017 in children listed for heart (hazard ratio [HR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96-0.97), liver (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94-0.97), and kidney (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99) transplant. Waitlist and posttransplant survival also improved steadily for all 3 organs. For heart transplant, the percentage of patients transplanted within 1 year significantly increased from 1987 to 2017 (60.8% vs 68.7%); however, no significant increase was observed in liver (68.9% vs 72.5%) or kidney (59.2% vs 62.7%) transplant. CONCLUSIONS: Intent-to-treat survival, which is more representative of the patient perspective than individual metrics alone, steadily improved for heart, liver, and kidney transplant over the study period. Further efforts to maximize the donor pool, improve posttransplant outcomes, and optimize patient care while on the waitlist may contribute to future progress.

Donor Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase Is Associated With Liver Allograft Discard and Failure.

INTRODUCTION: The disparity between the number of individuals on the wait list and available liver allografts creates the need for a system that maximizes donor liver utilization and predicts graft failure. RESEARCH QUESTION: This study aimed to determine the relationship between donor Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase (GGT), liver discard, and graft failure. DESIGN: Through multivariate analysis from 53 966 deceased liver donors, we adjusted for donor clinical and demographic characteristics and compared donor GGT with allograft discard. We compared donor GGT ranges with graft failure and analyzed data from 47 269 liver recipients. RESULTS: After adjusting for other factors, donor GGT was significantly associated with liver discard, with GGT over 200 U/L being most significant (OR 2.74, CI 2.51-2.99). Donor GGT under 20 U/L was also found to be a protective factor for post-transplant graft failure (HR 0.91, CI 0.83 - 1.00). CONCLUSION: Going forward, GGT should be included among other characteristics associated with allograft discard considered during the procurement process.

Prediction of Kidney Allograft Discard Before Procurement: The Kidney Discard Risk Index.

OBJECTIVES: There is an 18.9% discard rate among kidney allografts. Here, we aimed to determine predictors of kidney discard and construct an index to identify high-probability discard kidney allografts prior to procurement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 102 246 potential kidney allograft donors from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database were used in this analysis. The cohort was randomized into 2 groups. The training set included 67% of the cohort and was used to derive a predictive index for discard that comprised 21 factors identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The validation set included 33% and was used to internally validate the kidney discard risk index. RESULTS: In 77.3% of donors, at least 1 kidney was used for transplant, whereas in 22.7% of donors, both kidneys were discarded. The kidney discard risk index was highly predictive of discard with a C statistic of 0.89 (0.88-0.89). The bottom 10th percentile had a discard rate of 0.73%, whereas the top 10th percentile had a discard rate of 83.65%. The 3 most predictive factors for discard were age, creatinine level, and hepatitis C antibody status. CONCLUSIONS: We identified 21 factors predictive of discard prior to donor procurement and used these to develop a kidney discard risk index with a C statistic of 0.89.