Endovascular Thrombectomy Treatment Effect in Direct vs Transferred Patients With Large Ischemic Strokes: A Prespecified Analysis of the SELECT2 Trial.

Importance: Patients with large ischemic core stroke have poor clinical outcomes and are frequently not considered for interfacility transfer for endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). Objective: To assess EVT treatment effects in transferred vs directly presenting patients and to evaluate the association between transfer times and neuroimaging changes with EVT clinical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prespecified secondary analysis of the SELECT2 trial, which evaluated EVT vs medical management (MM) in patients with large ischemic stroke, evaluated adults aged 18 to 85 years with acute ischemic stroke due to occlusion of the internal carotid or middle cerebral artery (M1 segment) as well as an Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) of 3 to 5, core of 50 mL or greater on imaging, or both. Patients were enrolled between October 2019 and September 2022 from 31 EVT-capable centers in the US, Canada, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. Data were analyzed from August 2023 to January 2024. Interventions: EVT vs MM. Main Outcomes and Measures: Functional outcome, defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 90 days with blinded adjudication. Results: A total of 958 patients were screened and 606 patients were excluded. Of 352 enrolled patients, 145 (41.2%) were female, and the median (IQR) age was 66.5 (58-75) years. A total of 211 patients (59.9%) were transfers, while 141 (40.1%) presented directly. The median (IQR) transfer time was 178 (136-230) minutes. The median (IQR) ASPECTS decreased from the referring hospital (5 [4-7]) to an EVT-capable center (4 [3-5]). Thrombectomy treatment effect was observed in both directly presenting patients (adjusted generalized odds ratio [OR], 2.01; 95% CI, 1.42-2.86) and transferred patients (adjusted generalized OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.11-2.03) without heterogeneity (P for interaction = .14). Treatment effect point estimates favored EVT among 82 transferred patients with a referral hospital ASPECTS of 5 or less (44 received EVT; adjusted generalized OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 0.89-2.58). ASPECTS loss was associated with numerically worse EVT outcomes (adjusted generalized OR per 1-ASPECTS point loss, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.77-1.02). EVT treatment effect estimates were lower in patients with transfer times of 3 hours or more (adjusted generalized OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.73-1.80). Conclusions and Relevance: Both directly presenting and transferred patients with large ischemic stroke in the SELECT2 trial benefited from EVT, including those with low ASPECTS at referring hospitals. However, the association of EVT with better functional outcomes was numerically better in patients presenting directly to EVT-capable centers. Prolonged transfer times and evolution of ischemic change were associated with worse EVT outcomes. These findings emphasize the need for rapid identification of patients suitable for transfer and expedited transport. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03876457.

Endovascular thrombectomy plus medical care versus medical care alone for large ischaemic stroke: 1-year outcomes of the SELECT2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Multiple randomised trials have shown efficacy and safety of endovascular thrombectomy in patients with large ischaemic stroke. The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term (ie, at 1 year) evidence of benefit of thrombectomy for these patients. METHODS: SELECT2 was a phase 3, open-label, international, randomised controlled trial with blinded endpoint assessment, conducted at 31 hospitals in the USA, Canada, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, and New Zealand. Patients aged 18-85 years with ischaemic stroke due to proximal occlusion of the internal carotid artery or of the first segment of the middle cerebral artery, showing large ischaemic core on non-contrast CT (Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomographic Score of 3-5 [range 0-10, with lower values indicating larger infarctions]) or measuring 50 mL or more on CT perfusion and MRI, were randomly assigned, within 24 h of ischaemic stroke onset, to thrombectomy plus medical care or to medical care alone. The primary outcome for this analysis was the ordinal modified Rankin Scale (range 0-6, with higher scores indicating greater disability) at 1-year follow-up in an intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03876457) and is completed. FINDINGS: The trial was terminated early for efficacy at the 90-day follow-up after 352 patients had been randomly assigned (178 to thrombectomy and 174 to medical care only) between Oct 11, 2019, and Sept 9, 2022. Thrombectomy significantly improved the 1-year modified Rankin Scale score distribution versus medical care alone (Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney probability of superiority 0·59 [95% CI 0·53-0·64]; p=0·0019; generalised odds ratio 1·43 [95% CI 1·14-1·78]). At the 1-year follow-up, 77 (45%) of 170 patients receiving thrombectomy had died, compared with 83 (52%) of 159 patients receiving medical care only (1-year mortality relative risk 0·89 [95% CI 0·71-1·11]). INTERPRETATION: In patients with ischaemic stroke due to a proximal occlusion and large core, thrombectomy plus medical care provided a significant functional outcome benefit compared with medical care alone at 1-year follow-up. FUNDING: Stryker Neurovascular.

Endovascular Thrombectomy for Large Ischemic Stroke Across Ischemic Injury and Penumbra Profiles.

Importance: Whether endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) efficacy for patients with acute ischemic stroke and large cores varies depending on the extent of ischemic injury is uncertain. Objective: To describe the relationship between imaging estimates of irreversibly injured brain (core) and at-risk regions (mismatch) and clinical outcomes and EVT treatment effect. Design, Setting, and Participants: An exploratory analysis of the SELECT2 trial, which randomized 352 adults (18-85 years) with acute ischemic stroke due to occlusion of the internal carotid or middle cerebral artery (M1 segment) and large ischemic core to EVT vs medical management (MM), across 31 global centers between October 2019 and September 2022. Intervention: EVT vs MM. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was functional outcome-90-day mRS score (0, no symptoms, to 6, death) assessed by adjusted generalized OR (aGenOR; values >1 represent more favorable outcomes). Benefit of EVT vs MM was assessed across levels of ischemic injury defined by noncontrast CT using ASPECTS score and by the volume of brain with severely reduced blood flow on CT perfusion or restricted diffusion on MRI. Results: Among 352 patients randomized, 336 were analyzed (median age, 67 years; 139 [41.4%] female); of these, 168 (50%) were randomized to EVT, and 2 additional crossover MM patients received EVT. In an ordinal analysis of mRS at 90 days, EVT improved functional outcomes compared with MM within ASPECTS categories of 3 (aGenOR, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.04-2.81]), 4 (aGenOR, 2.01 [95% CI, 1.19-3.40]), and 5 (aGenOR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.22-2.79]). Across strata for CT perfusion/MRI ischemic core volumes, aGenOR for EVT vs MM was 1.63 (95% CI, 1.23-2.16) for volumes ≥70 mL, 1.41 (95% CI, 0.99-2.02) for ≥100 mL, and 1.47 (95% CI, 0.84-2.56) for ≥150 mL. In the EVT group, outcomes worsened as ASPECTS decreased (aGenOR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.82-1.00] per 1-point decrease) and as CT perfusion/MRI ischemic core volume increased (aGenOR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.95] per 10-mL increase). No heterogeneity of EVT treatment effect was observed with or without mismatch, although few patients without mismatch were enrolled. Conclusion and Relevance: In this exploratory analysis of a randomized clinical trial of patients with extensive ischemic stroke, EVT improved clinical outcomes across a wide spectrum of infarct volumes, although enrollment of patients with minimal penumbra volume was low. In EVT-treated patients, clinical outcomes worsened as presenting ischemic injury estimates increased. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03876457.

Trial of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Large Ischemic Strokes.

BACKGROUND: Trials of the efficacy and safety of endovascular thrombectomy in patients with large ischemic strokes have been carried out in limited populations. METHODS: We performed a prospective, randomized, open-label, adaptive, international trial involving patients with stroke due to occlusion of the internal carotid artery or the first segment of the middle cerebral artery to assess endovascular thrombectomy within 24 hours after onset. Patients had a large ischemic-core volume, defined as an Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score of 3 to 5 (range, 0 to 10, with lower scores indicating larger infarction) or a core volume of at least 50 ml on computed tomography perfusion or diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging. Patients were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to endovascular thrombectomy plus medical care or to medical care alone. The primary outcome was the modified Rankin scale score at 90 days (range, 0 to 6, with higher scores indicating greater disability). Functional independence was a secondary outcome. RESULTS: The trial was stopped early for efficacy; 178 patients had been assigned to the thrombectomy group and 174 to the medical-care group. The generalized odds ratio for a shift in the distribution of modified Rankin scale scores toward better outcomes in favor of thrombectomy was 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20 to 1.89; P<0.001). A total of 20% of the patients in the thrombectomy group and 7% in the medical-care group had functional independence (relative risk, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.60 to 5.51). Mortality was similar in the two groups. In the thrombectomy group, arterial access-site complications occurred in 5 patients, dissection in 10, cerebral-vessel perforation in 7, and transient vasospasm in 11. Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 1 patient in the thrombectomy group and in 2 in the medical-care group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with large ischemic strokes, endovascular thrombectomy resulted in better functional outcomes than medical care but was associated with vascular complications. Cerebral hemorrhages were infrequent in both groups. (Funded by Stryker Neurovascular; SELECT2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03876457.).

Mediation of Successful Reperfusion Effect through Infarct Growth and Cerebral Edema: A Pooled, Patient-Level Analysis of EXTEND-IA Trials and SELECT Prospective Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Reperfusion therapy is highly beneficial for ischemic stroke. Reduction in both infarct growth and edema are plausible mediators of clinical benefit with reperfusion. We aimed to quantify these mediators and their interrelationship. METHODS: In a pooled, patient-level analysis of the EXTEND-IA trials and SELECT study, we used a mediation analysis framework to quantify infarct growth and cerebral edema (midline shift) mediation effect on successful reperfusion (modified Treatment in Cerebral Ischemia ≥ 2b) association with functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale distribution). Furthermore, we evaluated an additional pathway to the original hypothesis, where infarct growth mediated successful reperfusion effect on midline shift. RESULTS: A total 542 of 665 (81.5%) eligible patients achieved successful reperfusion. Baseline clinical and imaging characteristics were largely similar between those achieving successful versus unsuccessful reperfusion. Median infarct growth was 12.3ml (interquartile range [IQR] = 1.8-48.4), and median midline shift was 0mm (IQR = 0-2.2). Of 249 (37%) demonstrating a midline shift of ≥1mm, median shift was 2.75mm (IQR = 1.89-4.21). Successful reperfusion was associated with reductions in both predefined mediators, infarct growth (ß = -1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.51 to -0.88, p < 0.001) and midline shift (adjusted odds ratio = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.23-0.57, p < 0.001). Successful reperfusion association with improved functional outcome (adjusted common odds ratio [acOR] = 2.68, 95% CI = 1.86-3.88, p < 0.001) became insignificant (acOR = 1.39, 95% CI = 0.95-2.04, p = 0.094) when infarct growth and midline shift were added to the regression model. Infarct growth and midline shift explained 45% and 34% of successful reperfusion effect, respectively. Analysis considering an alternative hypothesis demonstrated consistent results. INTERPRETATION: In this mediation analysis from a pooled, patient-level cohort, a significant proportion (~80%) of successful reperfusion effect on functional outcome was mediated through reduction in infarct growth and cerebral edema. Further studies are required to confirm our findings, detect additional mediators to explain successful reperfusion residual effect, and identify novel therapeutic targets to further enhance reperfusion benefits. ANN NEUROL 2023;93:793-804.

Medications received by patients with juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVE: Few controlled studies are available to guide treatment decisions in juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). This study evaluated therapies received, changes of treatment over time, and factors associated with medication choices in JDM. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the number and type of therapies and duration of treatment for 320 patients with JDM enrolled in a North American registry. Kaplan-Meier and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the association of demographic and clinical features and autoantibodies with medication usage. RESULTS: High-dose oral prednisone was the primary therapy given to 99% of patients. 1997 was determined to be a threshold year for increasing usage of medications other than prednisone. The median time to half the initial oral prednisone dose was shorter in patients diagnosed after vs. before 1997 (10 vs. 19 months, P < 0.01). Patients received intravenous methylprednisolone (IVMP), methotrexate, intravenous immunoglobulin, antimalarial drugs, and combination therapy more frequently when diagnosed after 1997. IVMP was frequently received by patients with severe illness onset, anti-p155/140 (anti-TIF1) and anti-MJ (anti-NXP2) autoantibodies. Treatment with methotrexate was associated with older age at diagnosis and anti-MJ autoantibodies, while antimalarial therapy was associated with anti-p155/140 autoantibodies and mild onset severity. CONCLUSION: Oral prednisone has been the mainstay of therapy in JDM, and prednisone was reduced faster in patients diagnosed after 1997 when there was also an increase in other medications. Specific medications received by patients with JDM correlated with year and age at diagnosis, myositis autoantibodies, onset severity, and illness features.

Biomarkers of Acute Stroke Etiology (BASE) Study Methodology.

Acute ischemic stroke affects over 800,000 US adults annually, with hundreds of thousands more experiencing a transient ischemic attack. Emergent evaluation, prompt acute treatment, and identification of stroke or TIA (transient ischemic attack) etiology for specific secondary prevention are critical for decreasing further morbidity and mortality of cerebrovascular disease. The Biomarkers of Acute Stroke Etiology (BASE) study is a multicenter observational study to identify serum markers defining the etiology of acute ischemic stroke. Observational trial of patients presenting to the hospital within 24 h of stroke onset. Blood samples are collected at arrival, 24, and 48 h later, and RNA gene expression is utilized to identify stroke etiology marker candidates. The BASE study began January 2014. At the time of writing, there are 22 recruiting sites. Enrollment is ongoing, expected to hit 1000 patients by March 2017. The BASE study could potentially aid in focusing the initial diagnostic evaluation to determine stroke etiology, with more rapidly initiated targeted evaluations and secondary prevention strategies.Clinical Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02014896 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02014896?term=biomarkers+of+acute+stroke+etiology&rank=1.

Recruiting Patients With Stroke Into Cell Therapy Trials: A Review.

IMPORTANCE: Clinical trials are under way to test the safety and efficacy of different types of cell therapies in patients with ischemic stroke. The informed consent process for recruitment of patients with stroke in cell therapy trials is complex and requires extensive discussions on multiple aspects. OBSERVATIONS: Various issues in approaching patients with stroke and their families and discussing participation in cell therapy studies are described, including participation in clinical trials, clarifying the perception of stem cell therapy and the risks of bone marrow harvest, and discussing risks vs benefits, cell-based therapies for chronic stroke, and consent for minority and immigrant populations. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Informed consent for cell therapy studies in patients with stroke requires lengthy discussions about several issues unique to clinical trials in stroke patients. Careful thought is needed to create an informative consent process.

Neurofluctuation in patients with subcortical ischemic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence of deterioration, fluctuation, and associated risk of poor outcome in patients with subcortical stroke (SCS). METHODS: We conducted a prospective observational study, enrolling patients admitted with SCS based on their clinical examination and imaging studies. An NIH Stroke Scale evaluation was performed daily and whenever deterioration in examination was detected. Neurologic deterioration was defined as a motor score increase of at least 1 on the NIH Stroke Scale. Modified Rankin Scale scores at discharge were used to assess outcome. RESULTS: Among 90 enrolled patients, 37 (41%) deteriorated, 75% of them in the first 24 hours after enrollment. Administration of tissue plasminogen activator was significantly associated with deterioration (hazard ratio 2.25; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-4.49) even after controlling for the association of deterioration with the early poststroke period. Deterioration conferred an increased risk of poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores 3-6) at discharge (relative risk: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.71-1.93). Reversion back to predeterioration deficits occurred in 38% of patients, and was associated with reduced risk of poor outcome at discharge (relative risk: 0.12; 95% CI: 0.02-0.83). Treatment with tissue plasminogen activator conferred better chances of spontaneous recovery to predeterioration deficits after initial deterioration (hazard ratio: 4.36; 95% CI: 1.36-14.01). CONCLUSION: More than 40% of patients with SCS deteriorate neurologically. Deterioration tends to occur early after stroke, spontaneously reverses in approximately one-third of cases, and poses an increased risk of poor outcome. Therapies are needed to prevent, arrest, or reverse deterioration in patients with SCS.

The National Cancer Institute-American Society of Clinical Oncology Cancer Trial Accrual Symposium: summary and recommendations.

INTRODUCTION: Many challenges to clinical trial accrual exist, resulting in studies with inadequate enrollment and potentially delaying answers to important scientific and clinical questions. METHODS: The National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) cosponsored the Cancer Trial Accrual Symposium: Science and Solutions on April 29-30, 2010 to examine the state of accrual science related to patient/community, physician/provider, and site/organizational influences, and identify new interventions to facilitate clinical trial enrollment. The symposium featured breakout sessions, plenary sessions, and a poster session including 100 abstracts. Among the 358 attendees were clinical investigators, researchers of accrual strategies, research administrators, nurses, research coordinators, patient advocates, and educators. A bibliography of the accrual literature in these three major areas was provided to participants in advance of the meeting. After the symposium, the literature in these areas was revisited to determine if the symposium recommendations remained relevant within the context of the current literature. RESULTS: Few rigorously conducted studies have tested interventions to address challenges to clinical trials accrual. Attendees developed recommendations for improving accrual and identified priority areas for future accrual research at the patient/community, physician/provider, and site/organizational levels. Current literature continues to support the symposium recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of approaches addressing both the multifactorial nature of accrual challenges and the characteristics of the target population may be needed to improve accrual to cancer clinical trials. Recommendations for best practices and for future research developed from the symposium are provided.

A phase I study of prolonged infusion of triapine in combination with fixed dose rate gemcitabine in patients with advanced solid tumors.

PURPOSE: Prolonged exposure of cancer cells to triapine, an inhibitor of ribonucleotide reductase, followed by gemcitabine enhances gemcitabine activity in vitro. Fixed-dose-rate gemcitabine (FDR-G) has improved efficacy compared to standard-dose. We conducted a phase I trial to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD), safety, pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamics (PD), and preliminary efficacy of prolonged triapine infusion followed by FDR-G. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Triapine was given as a 24-hour infusion, immediately followed by FDR-G (1000 mg/m(2) over 100-minute). Initially, this combination was administered days 1 and 8 of a 21-day cycle (Arm A, triapine starting dose 120 mg); but because of myelosuppression, it was changed to days 1 and 15 of a 28-day cycle (Arm B, starting dose of triapine 75 mg). Triapine steady-state concentrations (Css) and circulating ribonucleotide reductase M2-subunit (RRM2) were measured. RESULTS: Thirty-six patients were enrolled. The MTD was determined to be triapine 90 mg (24-hour infusion) immediately followed by gemcitabine 1000 mg/m(2) (100-minute infusion), every 2 weeks of a 4-week cycle. DLTs included grade 4 thrombocytopenia, leukopenia and neutropenia. The treatment was well tolerated with fatigue, nausea/vomiting, fever, transaminitis, and cytopenias being the most common toxicities. Among 30 evaluable patients, 1 had a partial response and 15 had stable disease. Triapine PK was similar, although more variable, compared to previous studies using doses normalized to body-surface-area. Steady decline in circulating levels of RRM2 may correlate with outcome. CONCLUSIONS: This combination was well tolerated and showed evidence of preliminary activity in this heavily pretreated patient population, including prior gemcitabine failure.

Phase I trial of lenalidomide and CCI-779 in patients with relapsed multiple myeloma: evidence for lenalidomide-CCI-779 interaction via P-glycoprotein.

PURPOSE: Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable plasma-cell neoplasm for which most treatments involve a therapeutic agent combined with dexamethasone. The preclinical combination of lenalidomide with the mTOR inhibitor CCI-779 has displayed synergy in vitro and represents a novel combination in MM. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A phase I clinical trial was initiated for patients with relapsed myeloma with administration of oral lenalidomide on days 1 to 21 and CCI-779 intravenously once per week during a 28-day cycle. Pharmacokinetic data for both agents were obtained, and in vitro transport and uptake studies were conducted to evaluate potential drug-drug interactions. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients were treated with 15 to 25 mg lenalidomide and 15 to 20 mg CCI-779. The maximum-tolerated dose (MTD) was determined to be 25 mg lenalidomide with 15 mg CCI-779. Pharmacokinetic analysis indicated increased doses of CCI-779 resulted in statistically significant changes in clearance, maximum concentrations, and areas under the concentration-time curves, with constant doses of lenalidomide. Similar and significant changes for CCI-779 pharmacokinetics were also observed with increased lenalidomide doses. Detailed mechanistic interrogation of this pharmacokinetic interaction demonstrated that lenalidomide was an ABCB1 (P-glycoprotein [P-gp]) substrate. CONCLUSION: The MTD of this combination regimen was 25 mg lenalidomide with 15 mg CCI-779, with toxicities of fatigue, neutropenia, and electrolyte wasting. Pharmacokinetic and clinical interactions between lenalidomide and CCI-779 seemed to occur, with in vitro data indicating lenalidomide was an ABCB1 (P-gp) substrate. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a clinically significant P-gp-based drug-drug interaction with lenalidomide.

Development of a scoring system for atrial fibrillation in acute stroke and transient ischemic attack patients: the LADS scoring system.

INTRODUCTION: Detection of atrial fibrillation in patients presenting with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) is important for the prevention of future events. We sought to develop a scoring system that would identify those patients most likely to have atrial fibrillation. METHODS: Records from an inpatient stroke and TIA database and echocardiographic data were reviewed. Consecutive acute stroke and TIA patients over the age of 18 who were admitted during a two-year period were studied. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to identify variables associated with atrial fibrillation. Logistic regression analyses were used to develop a scoring system for atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: 953 patient charts were reviewed; 145 patients (15%) had atrial fibrillation. In univariate and multivariate analyses, variables that were significantly associated with atrial fibrillation included left atrial diameter, age, and diagnosis of stroke. A history of smoking showed an inverse association. A 6-point scoring system based on these variables (with the acronym of LADS) was developed. A score of 4 or greater was associated with a sensitivity of 85.5% and a specificity of 53.1%. Approximately 47% of stroke and TIA patients would be excluded from further investigation using this score. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a system of scoring that identifies acute stroke and TIA patients with a greater chance of having atrial fibrillation. An inverse relationship with smoking was found. Further prospective studies are required to determine the clinical utility and cost-effectiveness of this scoring system in clinical practice and to investigate the inverse relationship between smoking and atrial fibrillation in this population.

Assessment of aquatic ecological risk and site-specific criteria of copper in San Francisco Bay, California, USA.

A new regression-based copper toxicity model was applied in a case study of San Francisco Bay, California, USA, to demonstrate its utility in estimating risk and site-specific water quality criteria. This was accomplished using probabilistic techniques and a simple model relating dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations with the toxicity of dissolved copper to embryos of the most copper sensitive taxon (Mytilus) in the US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) water quality criteria database. Similar probabilistic techniques were applied to data developed for San Francisco Bay using the USEPA's water-effect ratio (WER) methods for comparison with the DOC-based method. Based on 595 site- and date-specific DOC model observations at 26 sites in San Francisco Bay, none suggested risk of chronic toxicity. Safety factors (1/risk quotient) on average across all sites ranged from 2.4 to 9.1. Comparisons were made between 1) estimates of site-specific criteria made using the DOC method, 2) estimates of site-specific criteria made using the WER method, 3) USEPA national and California Toxics Rule criteria, and 4) region-specific criteria recommended for regulatory implementation by the Clean Estuary Partnership. The DOC- and WER-based methods indicated that copper criteria for San Francisco Bay could be increased above USEPA and California Toxics Rule criteria and will retain the level of protection (> or =97%) embodied in the USEPA copper saltwater water quality criteria. The DOC method overall was more conservative (i.e., implies the need for lower criteria in the Bay) than the WER method. The DOC method suggests that the region-specific criteria being recommended for regulatory implementation would be underprotective in some areas and yet could be increased and remain protective in other areas of San Francisco Bay.

Probability-based estimates of site-specific copper water quality criteria for the Chesapeake Bay, USA.

The object of this study was to estimate site- and region-specific dissolved copper criteria for a large embayment, the Chesapeake Bay, USA. The intent is to show the utility of 2 copper saltwater quality site-specific criteria estimation models and associated region-specific criteria selection methods. The criteria estimation models and selection methods are simple, efficient, and cost-effective tools for resource managers. The methods are proposed as potential substitutes for the US Environmental Protection Agency's water effect ratio methods. Dissolved organic carbon data and the copper criteria models were used to produce probability-based estimates of site-specific copper saltwater quality criteria. Site- and date-specific criteria estimations were made for 88 sites (n = 5,296) in the Chesapeake Bay. The average and range of estimated site-specific chronic dissolved copper criteria for the Chesapeake Bay were 7.5 and 5.3 to 16.9 microg Cu/L. The average and range of estimated site-specific acute dissolved copper criteria for the Chesapeake Bay were 11.7 and 8.3 to 26.4 microg Cu/L. The results suggest that applicable national and state copper criteria can increase in much of the Chesapeake Bay and remain protective. Virginia Department of Environmental Quality copper criteria near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, however, need to decrease to protect species of equal or greater sensitivity to that of the marine mussel, Mytilus sp.