Kinetics of EBV antibody-based NPC risk scores in Taiwan NPC multiplex families.

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) risk prediction models based on Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-antibody testing have shown potential for screening of NPC; however, the long-term stability is unclear. Here, we investigated the kinetics of two EBV-antibody NPC risk scores within the Taiwan NPC Multiplex Family Study. Among 545 participants with multiple blood samples, we evaluated the stability of a 2-marker enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay score and 13-marker multiplex serology score using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) by fitting a linear mixed model that accounted for the clustering effect of multiple measurements per subject and age. We also estimated the clustering of positive tests using Fleiss's kappa statistic. Over an average 20-year follow-up, the 2-marker score showed high stability over time, whereas the 13-marker score was more variable (p < .05). Case-control status is associated with the kinetics of the antibody response, with higher ICCs among cases. Positive tests were more likely to cluster within the same individual for the 2-marker score than the 13-marker score (p < .05). The 2-marker score had an increase in specificity from ~90% for single measurement to ~96% with repeat testing. The 13-marker score had a specificity of ~73% for a single measurement that increased to ~92% with repeat testing. Among individuals who developed NPC, none experienced score reversion. Our findings suggest that repeated testing could improve the specificity of NPC screening in high-risk NPC multiplex families. Further studies are required to determine the impact on sensitivity, establish optimal screening intervals, and generalize these findings to general population settings in high-risk regions.

COVID-19 and long-term impact on symptoms and Health-Related Quality of Life in Costa Rica: the RESPIRA cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence continues to accumulate regarding the potential long-term health consequences of COVID-19 in the population. To distinguish between COVID-19-related symptoms and health limitations from those caused by other conditions, it is essential to compare cases with community controls using prospective data ensuring case-control status. The RESPIRA study addresses this need by investigating the lasting impact of COVID-19 on Health-related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and symptomatology in a population-based cohort in Costa Rica, thereby providing a robust framework for controlling HRQoL and symptoms. METHODS: The study comprised 641 PCR-confirmed, unvaccinated cases of COVID-19 and 947 matched population-based controls. Infection was confirmed using antibody tests on enrollment serum samples and symptoms were monitored monthly for 6 months post-enrolment. Administered at the 6-month visit (occurring between 6- and 2-months post-diagnosis for cases and 6 months after enrollment for controls), HRQoL and Self-Perceived Health Change were assessed using the SF-36, while brain fog, using three items from the Mental Health Inventory (MHI). Regression models were utilized to analyze SF-36, MHI scores, and Self-Perceived Health Change, adjusted for case/control status, severity (mild case, moderate case, hospitalized) and additional independent variables. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the findings. RESULTS: Cases showed significantly higher prevalences of joint pain, chest tightness, and skin manifestations, that stabilized at higher frequencies from the fourth month post-diagnosis onwards (2.0%, 1.2%, and 0.8% respectively) compared to controls (0.9%, 0.4%, 0.2% respectively). Cases also exhibited significantly lower HRQoL than controls across all dimensions in the fully adjusted model, with a 12.4 percentage-point difference [95%CI: 9.4-14.6], in self-reported health compared to one year prior. Cases reported 8.0% [95%CI: 4.2, 11.5] more physical limitations, 7.3% [95%CI: 3.5, 10.5] increased lack of vitality, and 6.0% [95%CI: 2.4, 9.0] more brain fog compared to controls with similar characteristics. Undiagnosed cases detected with antibody tests among controls had HRQoL comparable to antibody negative controls. Differences were more pronounced in individuals with moderate or severe disease and among women. CONCLUSIONS: PCR-confirmed unvaccinated cases experienced prolonged HRQoL reductions 6 months to 2 years after diagnosis, this was particularly the case in severe cases and among women. Mildly symptomatic cases showed no significant long-term sequelae.

Optimization and Local Cost-Effectiveness of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Screening Strategies in Southern China: Secondary Analysis of the Guangdong Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Screening with anti-Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) serology and endoscopy decreased nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) mortality in Guangdong in a randomized trial. We conducted a secondary analysis of this trial using local incidence and cost data to optimize screening programs, hypothesizing that screening could be cost-effective in southern China. METHODS: Screening costs and life-years after NPC diagnosis were obtained from the Guangdong trial's intent-to-screen population (men and women age 30-69). Seropositive subjects were rescreened annually for five years. Thereafter, we evaluated 12 screening strategies in Guangdong and Guangxi using a validated model. Strategies used combinations of serology, nasopharyngeal swab PCR (NP PCR), endoscopy, and MRI from trial sub-cohorts. Incidence data and costs were obtained from local cancer registries and the provincial healthcare system. RESULTS: In the intent-to-screen population, screening with serology and endoscopy was cost-effective (¥42,366/life-year, 0.52 GDP per-capita). Screening for 5-15 years between ages 35-59 met a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1.5 GDP/QALY in all modeled populations. Despite doubling costs, adding MRI could be cost-effective via improved sensitivity. NP PCR triage reduced endoscopy/MRI referrals by 37%. One lifetime screen could reduce NPC mortality by pproximately 20%. CONCLUSIONS: EBV-based serologic screening for NPC is likely to be cost-effective in southern China. Among seropositive subjects, the preferred strategies use endoscopy alone or selective endoscopy triaged by MRI with or without NP PCR. These data may aid the design of screening programs in this region. IMPACT: These findings support population-based screening in southern China by defining the target population, cost effectiveness, and optimized screening approach.

Statin use is not associated with inflammation among Chilean women of Mapuche and non-Mapuche ancestry with gallstones.

Aim: Statins are associated with lower risk of gallstones due to anti-inflammatory effects. We assessed whether statins impact circulating inflammation among Chilean women with gallstones. Materials & methods: 200 Mapuche women were matched on statin use and age to 200 non-Mapuche women in the Chile Biliary Longitudinal Study. We analyzed 92 inflammatory biomarkers using multivariable-adjusted regression models, random forests and pathway analyses. Results: Statins were not significantly associated with any inflammation marker when women were analyzed jointly or stratified by ancestry. No significant associations were found through random forest methods and pathway analyses. Discussion: We did not find significant associations between statin use and inflammation markers in women with gallstones, suggesting that statins do not reduce inflammation once gallstones have formed.

Statins are prescribed to lower cholesterol and can also decrease the risk of gallstone formation by reducing inflammation. We assessed whether statin use reduces inflammation among women who have already developed gallstones. We analyzed 92 inflammation markers among 400 women in Chile, including 200 women with Mapuche Amerindian ancestry and 200 women of Latina/European ancestry. We found that statin use was not correlated with inflammation in this group of women overall nor by ancestry. This may mean that statin use does not reduce inflammation in women who already were diagnosed with gallstones.

Association of aflatoxin with gallbladder cancer in a case-control study nested within a Chinese cohort.

We evaluated whether aflatoxin B1 (AFB1 ) exposure was associated with later risk of developing gallbladder cancer (GBC). We measured AFB1 -lysine albumin adducts in baseline samples from the Shanghai Cohort Study of 18 244 men aged 45 to 64 years (recruited 1986-1989). We included 84 GBC cases with sufficient serum and 168 controls matched on age at sample collection, date of blood draw and residence. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for detectable vs non-detectable AFB1 -lysine albumin adducts and gallbladder cancer. AFB1 -lysine albumin adducts were detected in 50.0% of GBC cases, and risk of GBC was twice as high in those with detectable vs undetectable levels (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0-3.9). ORs ranged from 1.8 (95% CI = 0.75-4.3) for 0.5 to <1.75 pg/mg vs undetectable adduct levels to 2.2 (95% CI = 0.91-5.6) for >3.36 pg/mg vs undetectable, suggesting a dose-response (Ptrend = .05). When restricted to cases diagnosed before the median time to diagnosis after blood draw (18.4 years), results were similar (OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 0.80-5.8) to those for the entire follow-up duration. The OR was 9.4 (95% CI = 1.7-51.1) for individuals with detectable AFB1 -lysine albumin adducts and self-reported gallstones compared to individuals with neither. Participants with detectable AFB1 -lysine albumin adducts at baseline had increased risk of developing GBC, replicating the previously observed association between AFB1 exposure and providing the first evidence of temporality.

Cohort profile: evaluation of immune response and household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica: the RESPIRA study.

PURPOSE: The RESPIRA cohort aims to describe the nature, magnitude, time course and efficacy of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, population prevalence, and household transmission of COVID-19. PARTICIPANTS: From November 2020, we selected age-stratified random samples of COVID-19 cases from Costa Rica confirmed by PCR. For each case, two population-based controls, matched on age, sex and census tract were recruited, supplemented with hospitalised cases and household contacts. Participants were interviewed and blood and saliva collected for antibodies and PCR tests. Participants will be followed for 2 years to assess antibody response and infection incidence. FINDINGS TO DATE: Recruitment included 3860 individuals: 1150 COVID-19 cases, 1999 population controls and 719 household contacts from 304 index cases. The age and regional distribution of cases was as planned, including four age strata, 30% rural and 70% urban. The control cohort had similar sex, age and regional distribution as the cases according to the study design. Among the 1999 controls recruited, 6.8% reported at enrolment having had COVID-19 and an additional 12.5% had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Compliance with visits and specimens has been close to 70% during the first 18 months of follow-up. During the study, national vaccination was implemented and nearly 90% of our cohort participants were vaccinated during follow-up. FUTURE PLANS: RESPIRA will enable multiple analyses, including population prevalence of infection, clinical, behavioural, immunological and genetic risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 acquisition and severity, and determinants of household transmission. We are conducting retrospective and prospective assessment of antibody levels, their determinants and their protective efficacy after infection and vaccination, the impact of long-COVID and a series of ancillary studies. Follow-up continues with bimonthly saliva collection for PCR testing and biannual blood collection for immune response analyses. Follow-up will be completed in early 2024. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04537338.

Prevalencia y determinantes de la infección por virus de papiloma humano en mujeres jóvenes de Guanacaste y Puntarenas, Costa Rica, 2004-2005.

OBJETIVO: Estimar la prevalencia e identificar determinantes de la infección por el virus del papiloma humano (VPH) en mujeres jóvenes (18-25 años). Material y métodos. Se analizaron datos de 5 871 mujeres sexualmente activas a quienes se les realizó una entrevista y toma de muestras cervicouterinas para detección de VPH y citología durante la visita de reclutamiento del Ensayo de Vacunación contra VPH16/18 en Costa Rica. Se calculó la prevalencia total para cualquier tipo de VPH y tipos oncogénicos, no oncogénicos y específicos, con intervalos de confianza al 95% (IC95%). Se utilizó regresión logística múltiple paso-a-paso para identificar determinantes asociados con la infección. RESULTADOS: La prevalencia total de VPH fue 50.0% (IC95% 48.8,51.3) y por tipos oncogénicos fue 33.8% (IC95% 32.6,35.0). El VPH-16 fue el tipo más prevalente (8.3%, IC95% 7.6,9.0). Los determinantes asociados con un alto riesgo de infección prevalente por VPH oncogénicos fueron no estar casada/unión libre, >1 compañero sexual, infección concomitante por Chlamydia trachomatis, y entre aquéllas con un único compañero sexual en su vida, un compañero con antecedente de múltiples compañeras sexuales. Conclusión. Se confirma la asociación de las infecciones por VPH oncogénicos con el comportamiento sexual de la mujer y se destacan los comportamientos del compañero sexual.

Cancers Attributable to Infections in the US in 2017: A Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Infections are largely modifiable causes of cancer. However, there remains untapped potential for preventing and treating carcinogenic infections in the US. Objective: To estimate the percentage and number of incident cancers attributable to infections in the US among adults and children for the most recent year cancer incidence data were available (2017). Data Sources: A literature search from 1946 onward was performed in MEDLINE on January 6, 2023, to obtain the data required to calculate population attributable fractions for 31 infection-cancer pairs. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data were used to estimate the population prevalence of hepatitis B and C viruses and Helicobacter pylori. Study Selection: Studies conducted in the US or other Western countries were selected according to specific infection-cancer criteria. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Data from 128 studies were meta-analyzed to obtain the magnitude of an infection-cancer association or prevalence of the infection within cancer cells. Main Outcomes and Measures: The proportion of cancer incidence attributable to 8 infections. Results: Of the 1 666 102 cancers diagnosed in 2017 among individuals aged 20 years or older in the US, 71 485 (4.3%; 95% CI, 3.1%-5.3%) were attributable to infections. Human papillomavirus (n = 38 230) was responsible for the most cancers, followed by H pylori (n = 10 624), hepatitis C virus (n = 9006), Epstein-Barr virus (n = 7581), hepatitis B virus (n = 2310), Merkel cell polyomavirus (n = 2000), Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (n = 1075), and human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (n = 659). Cancers with the most infection-attributable cases were cervical (human papillomavirus; n = 12 829), gastric (H pylori and Epstein-Barr virus; n = 12 565), oropharynx (human papillomavirus; n = 12 430), and hepatocellular carcinoma (hepatitis B and C viruses; n = 10 017). The burden of infection-attributable cancers as a proportion of total cancer incidence ranged from 9.6% (95% CI, 9.2%-10.0%) for women aged 20 to 34 years to 3.2% (95% CI, 2.4%-3.8%) for women aged 65 years or older and from 6.1% (95% CI, 5.2%-7.0%) for men aged 20 to 34 years to 3.3% (95% CI, 1.9%-4.4%) for men aged 65 years or older. Among those aged 19 years or younger, 2.2% (95% CI, 1.3%-3.0%) of cancers diagnosed in 2017 were attributable to Epstein-Barr virus. Conclusions and Relevance: Infections were estimated to be responsible for 4.3% of cancers diagnosed among adults in the US in 2017 and, therefore, represent an important target for cancer prevention efforts.

Estimating the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Costa Rica: modelling seroprevalence data in a population-based cohort.

Background: The true incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Costa Rica was likely much higher than officially reported, because infection is often associated with mild symptoms and testing was limited by official guidelines and socio-economic factors. Methods: Using serology to define natural infection, we developed a statistical model to estimate the true cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica early in the pandemic. We estimated seroprevalence from 2223 blood samples collected from November 2020 to October 2021 from 1976 population-based controls from the RESPIRA study. Samples were tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid and the receptor-binding-domain of the spike proteins. Using a generalized linear model, we estimated the ratio of true infections to officially reported cases. Applying these ratios to officially reported totals by age, sex, and geographic area, we estimated the true number of infections in the study area, where 70% of Costa Ricans reside. We adjusted the seroprevalence estimates for antibody decay over time, estimated from 1562 blood samples from 996 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases. Findings: The estimated total proportion infected (ETPI) was 4.0 times higher than the officially reported total proportion infected (OTPI). By December 16th, 2021, the ETPI was 47% [42-52] while the OTPI was 12%. In children and adolescents, the ETPI was 11.0 times higher than the OTPI. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that nearly half the population had been infected by the end of 2021. By the end of 2022, it is likely that a large majority of the population had been infected. Funding: This work was sponsored and funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases through the National Cancer Institute, the Science, Innovation, Technology and Telecommunications Ministry of Costa Rica, and Costa Rican Biomedical Research Agency-Fundacion INCIENSA (grant N/A).

Behavioral factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within a household cohort in Costa Rica.

INTRODUCTION: Variability in household secondary attack rates and transmission risks factors of SARS-CoV-2 remain poorly understood. METHODS: We conducted a household transmission study of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica, with SARS-CoV-2 index cases selected from a larger prospective cohort study and their household contacts were enrolled. A total of 719 household contacts of 304 household index cases were enrolled from November 21, 2020, through July 31, 2021. Blood specimens were collected from contacts within 30-60 days of index case diagnosis; and serum was tested for presence of spike and nucleocapsid SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 prior infections among household contacts was defined based on the presence of both spike and nucleocapsid antibodies. We fitted a chain binomial model to the serologic data, to account for exogenous community infection risk and potential multi-generational transmissions within the household. RESULTS: Overall seroprevalence was 53% (95% confidence interval (CI) 48-58%) among household contacts. The estimated household secondary attack rate is 34% (95% CI 5-75%). Mask wearing by the index case is associated with the household transmission risk reduction by 67% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.33 with 95% CI: 0.09-0.75) and not sharing bedroom with the index case is associated with the risk reduction of household transmission by 78% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.22 with 95% CI 0.10-0.41). The estimated distribution of household secondary attack rates is highly heterogeneous across index cases, with 30% of index cases being the source for 80% of secondary cases. CONCLUSIONS: Modeling analysis suggests that behavioral factors are important drivers of the observed SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within the household.

When living in the same house with known SARS-CoV-2 cases, household members may change their behavior and adopt preventive measures to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. To understand how behavioral factors affect SARS-CoV-2 spreading in household settings, we focused on household members of individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and followed the way SARS-CoV-2 spread within the household, by looking at who had antibodies against the virus, which means they were infected. We also asked participants detailed questions about their behavior and applied mathematical modeling to evaluate its impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We found that mask-wearing by the SARS-CoV-2 cases, and avoiding sharing a bedroom with the infected individuals, reduces SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, caring for SARS-CoV-2 cases, and prolonged interaction with infected individuals facilitate SARS-CoV-2 spreading. Our study helps inform what behaviors can help reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a household.

Performance and Operational Feasibility of Epstein-Barr Virus-Based Screening for Detection of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Direct Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches.

PURPOSE: Two Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-based testing approaches have shown promise for early detection of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Neither has been independently validated nor their performance compared. We compared their diagnostic performance in an independent population. METHODS: We tested blood samples from 819 incident Taiwanese NPC cases (213 early-stage, American Joint Committee on Cancer version 7 stages I and II) diagnosed from 2010 to 2014 and from 1,768 controls from the same region, frequency matched to cases on age and sex. We compared an EBV antibody score using immunoglobulin A antibodies measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EBV antibody score) and plasma EBV DNA load measured by real-time PCR followed by next-generation sequencing (NGS) among EBV DNA-positive individuals (EBV DNA algorithm). RESULTS: EBV antibodies and DNA load were measured for 2,522 (802 cases; 1,720 controls) and 2,542 (797 cases; 1,745 controls) individuals, respectively. Of the 898 individuals positive for plasma EBV DNA and therefore eligible for NGS, we selected 442 (49%) for NGS testing. The EBV antibody score had a sensitivity of 88.4% (95% CI, 86.1 to 90.6) and a specificity of 94.9% (95% CI, 93.8 to 96.0) for NPC. The EBV DNA algorithm yielded significantly higher sensitivity (93.2%; 95% CI, 91.3 to 94.9; P = 1.33 × 10-4) and specificity (98.1%; 95% CI, 97.3 to 98.8; P = 3.53 × 10-7). For early-stage NPC, the sensitivities were 87.1% (95% CI, 82.7 to 92.4) for the EBV antibody score and 87.0% (95% CI, 81.9 to 91.5) for the EBV DNA algorithm (P = .514). For regions with a NPC incidence of 20-100/100,000 person-years (eg, residents in southern China and Hong Kong), these two approaches yielded similar numbers needed to screen (EBV antibody score: 5,656-1,131; EBV DNA algorithm: 5,365-1,073); positive predictive values ranged from 0.4% to 1.7% and 1.0% to 4.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity of EBV antibody and plasma EBV DNA for NPC detection, with slightly inferior performance of the EBV antibody score. Cost-effectiveness studies are needed to guide screening implementation.

Estimating human papillomavirus vaccine efficacy from a single-arm trial: proof-of-principle in the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends a 1- or 2-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination schedule for females aged 9 to 20 years. Studies confirming the efficacy of a single dose and vaccine modifications are needed, but randomized controlled trials are costly and face logistical and ethical challenges. We propose a resource-efficient single-arm trial design that uses untargeted and unaffected HPV types as controls. METHODS: We estimated HPV vaccine efficacy (VE) from a single arm by comparing 2 ratios: the ratio of the rate of persistent incident infection with vaccine-targeted HPV 16 and 18 (HPV 16/18) and cross-protected types HPV 31, 33, and 45 (HPV 31/33/45) to vaccine-unaffected types HPV 35, 39, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, and 66 (HPV 35/39/51/52/56/58/59/66) vs the ratio of prevalence of these types at the time of trial enrollment. We compare VE estimates using only data from the bivalent HPV 16/18 vaccine arm of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial with published VE estimates that used both the vaccine and control arms. RESULTS: Our single-arm approach among 3727 women yielded VE estimates against persistent HPV 16/18 infections similar to published 2-arm estimates from the trial (according-to-protocol cohort: 91.0% , 95% CI = 82.9% to 95.3% [single-arm] vs 90.9% , 95% CI = 82.0% to 95.9% [2-arm]; intention-to-treat cohort: 41.7%, 95% CI = 32.4% to 49.8% [single-arm] vs 49.0% , 95% CI = 38.1% to 58.1% [2-arm]). VE estimates were also similar in analytic subgroups (number of doses received; baseline HPV serology status). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that a single-arm design yields valid VE estimates with similar precision to a randomized controlled trial. Single-arm studies can reduce the sample size and costs of future HPV vaccine trials while avoiding concerns related to unvaccinated control groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00128661.

Biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in the REVEAL-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohort studies.

Gut barrier dysfunction can result in the liver being exposed to an elevated level of gut-derived bacterial products via portal circulation. Growing evidence suggests that systemic exposure to these bacterial products promotes liver diseases including hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prospective studies have not examined the association between biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and HCC risk in a population of hepatitis B or C viral (HBV/HCV) carriers. We investigated whether prediagnostic, circulating biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction were associated with HCC risk, using the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohorts from Taiwan. REVEAL-HBV included 185 cases and 161 matched controls, and REVEAL-HCV 96 cases and 96 matched controls. The biomarkers quantitated were immunoglobulin A (IgA), IgG, and IgM against lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and flagellin, soluble CD14 (an LPS coreceptor), and LPS-binding protein (LBP). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between biomarker levels and HCC were calculated using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression. A doubling of the circulating levels of antiflagellin IgA or LBP was associated with a 76% to 93% increased risk of HBV-related HCC (OR per one unit change in log2 antiflagellin IgA = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.06-2.93; OR for LBP = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.10-3.38). None of the other markers were associated with an increased risk of HBV-related or HCV-related HCC. Results were similar when cases diagnosed in the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded. Our findings contribute to understanding the interplay of gut barrier dysfunction and primary liver cancer etiology.

Excess mortality from COVID 19 in Costa Rica: a registry based study using Poisson regression.

Background: Official death toll related to COVID-19 has been considerably underestimated in reports from some Latin American countries. This study aimed to analyze the mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Costa Rica between March 2020 and December 2021. Methods: A registry based study based on 2017-2021 data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census was designed (N = 128,106). Excess deaths were defined by the WHO as "the difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis compared to those expected under normal conditions"; and were estimated using a Poisson regression, and mortality and years of potential life lost (YPLL) rates were calculated. Findings: The COVID-19 pandemic represented 15% of the deaths in Costa Rica between March 2020 and December 2021. The mortality rate related to COVID-19 was 83 per 100,000 person-years. Between March and July 2020 (low-incidence period), observed number of deaths was 9%-lower than expected, whereas it was 15% and 24% higher than expected between July 2020 and March 2021 (high incidence period - no vaccination), and between March 2021 and December 2021 (high incidence period - progressive vaccination) respectively. Between July 2020 and December 2021, excess deaths observed and COVID-19 deaths reported were comparable (7461 and 7620 respectively). Nevertheless, there were more deaths than expected for conditions that predispose to COVID-19 deaths. YPLL and mortality rates increased with age, but significant excess deaths were observed in all age-groups older than 30-39 years. No large differences were noted by districts' socioeconomic characteristics although excess death rate was lower in rural compared to urban areas. Interpretation: Reporting of deaths was only slightly underestimated. In the pre-vaccination period, mortality rate and YPLL rates increased with age, being highest in people aged 60 years or older and justifying the decision to initially prioritize vaccination of older individuals. Funding: The study was supported by the University of Costa Rica and the Agencia Costarricense de Investigaciones Biomédicas - Fundación Inciensa.

Comparative Analysis of the Humoral Immune Response to the EBV Proteome across EBV-Related Malignancies.

BACKGROUND: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is linked to multiple cancers, including classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL), endemic Burkitt lymphoma (eBL), nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), and extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (NKTCL). METHODS: Anti-EBV IgG and IgA antibody responses targeting 202 sequences from 86 EBV proteins were measured using the same EBV whole proteome array across four case-control studies investigating EBV-positive cHL, eBL, NPC, and NKTCL (407 cases/620 controls). We grouped EBV-targeted antibodies into pathways by immunoglobulin type (IgA and IgG) and life-cycle stage (latent, immediate early lytic, early lytic, late lytic, and glycoprotein) and evaluated their association with each cancer type. In an additional analysis, we focused on the subset of 46 individual antibodies representing the top candidates for each cancer and compared their associations across the four cancer types using multivariable linear regression models. RESULTS: IgA antibody responses targeting all EBV life-cycle stages were associated with NPC but limited to anti-early lytic stage for cHL. NPC and eBL were associated with IgG antibodies across the viral life cycle; cHL with antibodies in the early lytic, late lytic and glycoprotein stages; and NKTCL with antibodies in the latent, immediate early lytic and early lytic phases. EBNA3A, BBLF1, BDLF4, and BLRF2 IgG antibodies were associated with all cancer types. CONCLUSIONS: Our observed similarities and differences across four EBV-associated cancers may inform EBV-related oncogenesis. IMPACT: Understanding the comparative humoral immune response across EBV-related cancers may aid in identifying shared etiologic roles of EBV proteins and inform unique pathogenic processes for each cancer.

Recommendations for Epstein-Barr virus-based screening for nasopharyngeal cancer in high- and intermediate-risk regions.

A meeting of experts was held in November 2021 to review and discuss available data on performance of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-based approaches to screen for early stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and methods for the investigation and management of screen-positive individuals. Serum EBV antibody and plasma EBV DNA testing methods were considered. Both approaches were found to have favorable performance characteristics and to be cost-effective in high-risk populations. In addition to endoscopy, use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to investigate screen-positive individuals was found to increase the sensitivity of NPC detection with minimal impact on cost-effectiveness of the screening program.

Trends in incidence rates of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas overall and by potential relatedness to human papillomavirus, Costa Rica 2006 to 2015.

In Costa Rica (CR), only one report on head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence trends (1985-2007) has been published and no investigations on the epidemiology of potentially human papillomavirus (HPV)-related and HPV-unrelated HNCs have been done. We examined the age-standardized incidence rates (IRs) and trends of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) and compared incidence trends of potentially HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNSCCs. We obtained all available HNC cases for the period 2006-2015 from the Costa Rican National Cancer Registry of Tumors and the population estimates from the Costa Rican National Institute of Statistics and Census. The analysis was restricted to invasive HNSCCs (n = 1577). IRs and incidence rate ratios were calculated using SEER*Stat software and were age-standardized for the 2010 Costa Rican population. Joinpoint regression analysis program was used to calculate trends and annual percent changes (APCs) in rates. For all HNSCCs, the age-standardized IR was 34.0/million person-years; 95% CI 32.4, 35.8. There was a significant decline in the incidence of nasopharyngeal cancer (APC: -5.9% per year; 95% CI -10.8, -0.7) and laryngeal cancer (APC: -5.4% per year; -9.2, 1.5). The incidence trends for hypopharyngeal, oropharyngeal and oral cavity cancers each remained stable over time. HNSCCs were categorized by their potential relatedness to HPV infection. Though the APCs were not statistically significant, IRs of potentially HPV-related HNSCCs trended upward, while HPV-unrelated HNSCCs trended downward. HNSCCs are uncommon in CR and decreased over time. We observed a divergent pattern of decreasing HPV-unrelated with increasing HPV-related HNSCCs that should be further informed by HPV genotyping tumor samples.

Association between Immunologic Markers and Cirrhosis in Individuals from a Prospective Chronic Hepatitis C Cohort.

Background: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can affect immune response and inflammatory pathways, leading to severe liver diseases such as cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: In a prospective cohort of chronically HCV-infected individuals, we sampled 68 individuals who developed cirrhosis, 91 controls who did not develop cirrhosis, and 94 individuals who developed HCC. Unconditional odds ratios (ORs) from polytomous logistic regression models and canonical discriminant analyses (CDAs) were used to compare categorical (C) baseline plasma levels for 102 markers in individuals who developed cirrhosis vs. controls and those who developed HCC vs. cirrhosis. Leave-one-out cross validation was used to produce receiver operating characteristic curves to assess predictive ability of markers. Lastly, biological pathways were assessed in association with cirrhotic development compared to controls. Results: After multivariable adjustment, DEFA-1 (OR: C2v.C1 = 7.73; p < 0.0001), ITGAM (OR: C2v.C1 = 4.03; p = 0.0002), SCF (OR: C4v.C1 = 0.19; p-trend = 0.0001), and CCL11 (OR: C4v.C1 = 0.31; p-trend= 0.002) were all associated with development of cirrhosis compared to controls; these markers, together with clinical/demographics variables, improved prediction of cirrhosis from 55.7% (in clinical/demographic-only model) to 74.9% accuracy. A twelve-marker model based on CDA results further increased prediction of cirrhosis to 88.0%. While six biological pathways were found to be associated with cirrhosis, cell adhesion was the only pathway associated with cirrhosis after Bonferroni correction. In contrast to cirrhosis, DEFA-1 and ITGAM levels were inversely associated with HCC risk. Conclusions: Pending validation, these findings highlight the important role of immunological markers in predicting HCV-related cirrhosis even 11 years post-enrollment.