Analyzing the Effect of Time in Migration Measurement Using Georeferenced Digital Trace Data.

Georeferenced digital trace data offer unprecedented flexibility in migration estimation. Because of their high temporal granularity, many migration estimates can be generated from the same data set by changing the definition parameters. Yet despite the growing application of digital trace data to migration research, strategies for taking advantage of their temporal granularity remain largely underdeveloped. In this paper, we provide a general framework for converting digital trace data into estimates of migration transitions and for systematically analyzing their variation along a quasi-continuous time scale, analogous to a survival function. From migration theory, we develop two simple hypotheses regarding how we expect our estimated migration transition functions to behave. We then test our hypotheses on simulated data and empirical data from three platforms in two internal migration contexts: geotagged Tweets and Gowalla check-ins in the United States, and cell-phone call detail records in Senegal. Our results demonstrate the need for evaluating the internal consistency of migration estimates derived from digital trace data before using them in substantive research. At the same time, however, common patterns across our three empirical data sets point to an emergent research agenda using digital trace data to study the specific functional relationship between estimates of migration and time and how this relationship varies by geography and population characteristics.

Do stress and anxiety in early pregnancy affect the progress of labor: Evidence from the Wirral Child Health and Development Study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite widespread belief that anxiety causes longer labor, evidence of association is inconsistent. Data gathered as part of a prospective epidemiological longitudinal study were used to investigate associations between antenatal anxiety and pregnancy-specific stress, and labor progression was assessed by duration and use of augmentation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Pregnant primiparous women completed measures for anxiety and pregnancy-specific stress at 20 weeks' gestation (n = 1145). Birth outcome data were extracted from medical records. Regression analyses and a path analysis assessed associations between antenatal anxiety and pregnancy-specific stress, and indices of labor progression (labor duration and augmentation). RESULTS: Anxiety/pregnancy-specific stress were not directly associated with duration of stage 1 labor (HIGH/LOW anxiety: mean difference = 13.94 minutes, SD = 20.66, 95% CI -26.60 to 54.49, P < .50)/(HIGH/LOW pregnancy-specific stress: mean difference = 12.05 minutes, SD = 16.09, 95% CI -19.52 to 43.63, P < .45). However, anxiety/pregnancy-specific stress were associated with epidural use (HIGH/LOW anxiety: 39% vs 31%, P < .042; HIGH/LOW pregnancy-specific stress: 38% vs 29%, P < .001), which was itself associated with longer labor (mean difference: 158.79 minutes, SD = 16.76, 95% CI 125.89-191.68, P < .001). Anxiety and pregnancy-specific stress were associated with increased likelihood of augmentation but these associations were nonsignificant after accounting for epidural, which was itself highly associated with augmentation. However, path analysis indicated an indirect effect linking pregnancy-specific stress, but not general anxiety, to labor duration and augmentation: elevated pregnancy-specific stress led to greater use of epidural, which was linked to both increased rates of augmentation, and increased labor duration. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to general belief, general anxiety and specific pregnancy stress were not directly linked to longer duration of stage one labor. However specific pregnancy stress was associated with epidural use, which in turn was significantly associated with risk of augmentation, and longer stage one labor. Identification of pregnancy-specific stress could help to identify women for whom psychological interventions could improve birth experience.

Too easy? The influence of task demands conveyed tacitly on prospective memory.

Previous research suggests that when intentions are encoded, participants establish an attention allocation policy based on their metacognitive beliefs about how demanding it will be to fulfill the prospective memory (PM) task. We investigated whether tacit PM demands can influence judgments about the cognitive effort required for success, and, as a result, affect ongoing task interference and PM performance. Participants performed a lexical decision task in which a PM task of responding to animal words was embedded. PM demands were tacitly manipulated by presenting participants with either typical or atypical animal exemplars at both instructions and practice (low vs. high tacit demands, respectively). Crucially, objective PM task demands were the same for all participants as PM targets were always atypical animals. Tacit demands affected participants' attention allocation policies such that task interference was greater for the high than low demands condition. Also, PM performance was reduced in the low relative to the high demands condition. Participants in the low demands condition who succeeded to the first target showed a subsequent increase in task interference, suggesting adjustment to the higher than expected demands. This study demonstrates that tacit information regarding the PM task can affect ongoing task processing as well as harm PM performance when actual demands are higher than expected. Furthermore, in line with the proposal that attention allocation is a dynamic and flexible process, we found evidence that PM task experience can trigger changes in ongoing task interference.