Instrumental variables in real-world clinical studies of dementia and neurodegenerative disease: Systematic review of the subject-matter argumentation, falsification test, and study design strategies to justify a valid instrument.

OBJECTIVES: We systematically reviewed how investigators argued for and justified the validity of their instrumental variables (IV) in clinical studies of dementia and neurodegenerative disease. METHODS: We included studies using IV analysis with observational data to investigate causal effects in clinical research studies of dementia and neurodegenerative disease. We reported the subject-matter argumentation, falsification test, and study design strategies used to satisfy the three assumptions of a valid IV: relevance, exclusion restriction, and exchangeability. RESULTS: Justification for the relevance assumption was performed in all 12 included studies, exclusion restriction in seven studies, and exchangeability in nine studies. Two subject-matter argumentation strategies emerged from seven studies on the relevance of their IV. All studies except one provided quantitative evidence for the strength of the association between the IV and exposure variable. Four argumentation strategies emerged for exclusion restriction from six studies. Four falsification tests were performed across three studies. Three argumentation strategies emerged for exchangeability across four studies. Nine falsification tests were performed across nine studies. Two notable study design strategies were reported. CONCLUSION: Our results reinforce IV analysis as a feasible option for clinical researchers in dementia and neurodegenerative disease by clarifying known strategies used to validate an IV.

Let's talk aspirin: A survey of barriers and facilitators faced by midwives when engaging in conversations about aspirin with women at risk of pre-eclampsia.

OBJECTIVE: Adherence to low-dose aspirin is key in preventing pre-eclampsia. Midwives are well positioned to support women to take aspirin as prescribed. This study aimed to understand the barriers and facilitators that midwives face during consultations with pregnant women about prophylactic aspirin. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A cross-sectional, UK-wide, quantitative and qualitative study of midwives was conducted between November 2020 and April 2021 using social media platforms. The survey was designed using the Theoretical Domains Framework by a team of researchers experienced in using it. An open-ended question was embedded in the survey to allow midwives to expand on matters related to the study subject. FINDINGS: Out of 160 responders, 37.5 % indicated inadequate engagement in conversations with women about aspirin prophylaxis. Domains 'Knowledge' (OR 13.7, 95 %CI 5.7-32.7, p < 0.001), 'Professional role and Identity' (OR 15.3, 95 %CI 6.4-36.7, p < 0.001) and 'Beliefs about capabilities' (OR 13.6, 95 %CI 6.1-30.6, p < 0.001) were most prominently associated with effective engagement. Best fit model was comprised of 'Beliefs about Capabilities', 'Social/professional role and identity', and 'Knowledge'. Midwives' comments focused on barriers within 'environmental context' related to 'conflicting views' and 'deficit in resources' that compromise positive reinforcement of aspirin use. Responders also provided helpful 'Top tips' that streamline their daily practice. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Beliefs about Capabilities, Social/professional role and identity, Knowledge, and Environmental Context and resources are key domains related to midwives' engagement in conversations about aspirin in pregnancy. Clear, up-to date information for midwives and the public should be available in an easy access format to allow provision of unequivocal advice related to the use of aspirin in pregnancy.

Current practices in studies applying the target trial emulation framework: a protocol for a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Observational studies represent an alternative to estimate real-world causal effects in the absence of available randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Target trial emulation is a framework for the application of RCT design principles to emulate a hypothetical open-label RCT (the hypothetical target trial) using existing observational data as the primary data source as opposed to the prospective recruitment and measurement of randomised units. The aim of this systematic review is to investigate the practices of studies applying the target trial emulation framework to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will systematically search in Medline (via Ovid), Embase (via Ovid, entries from medRxiv are included), PsycINFO (via Ovid), SCOPUS, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, the ISRCTN registry and ClinicalTrials.gov for all study reports and protocols which used the trial emulation framework (without time restriction). We will extract information concerning study design, data source, analysis, results, interpretation and dissemination. Two reviewers will perform study selection, data extraction and quality assessment. Disagreements between reviewers will be resolved by a third reviewer. A narrative approach will be used to synthesise and report qualitative and quantitative data. Reporting of the review will be informed by Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis guidance (PRISMA). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required as it is a protocol for a systematic review. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.

The Infant KIdney Dialysis and Utrafiltration (I-KID) Study: A Stepped-Wedge Cluster-Randomized Study in Infants, Comparing Peritoneal Dialysis, Continuous Venovenous Hemofiltration, and Newcastle Infant Dialysis Ultrafiltration System, a Novel Infant Hemodialysis Device.

OBJECTIVES: Renal replacement therapy (RRT) options are limited for small babies because of lack of available technology. We investigated the precision of ultrafiltration, biochemical clearances, clinical efficacy, outcomes, and safety profile for a novel non-Conformité Européenne-marked hemodialysis device for babies under 8 kg, the Newcastle Infant Dialysis Ultrafiltration System (NIDUS), compared with the current options of peritoneal dialysis (PD) or continuous venovenous hemofiltration (CVVH). DESIGN: Nonblinded cluster-randomized cross-sectional stepped-wedge design with four periods, three sequences, and two clusters per sequence. SETTING: Clusters were six U.K. PICUs. PATIENTS: Babies less than 8 kg requiring RRT for fluid overload or biochemical disturbance. INTERVENTIONS: In controls, RRT was delivered by PD or CVVH, and in interventions, NIDUS was used. The primary outcome was precision of ultrafiltration compared with prescription; secondary outcomes included biochemical clearances. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: At closure, 97 participants were recruited from the six PICUs (62 control and 35 intervention). The primary outcome, obtained from 62 control and 21 intervention patients, showed that ultrafiltration with NIDUS was closer to that prescribed than with control: sd controls, 18.75, intervention, 2.95 (mL/hr); adjusted ratio, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.03-0.71; p = 0.018. Creatinine clearance was smallest and least variable for PD (mean, sd ) = (0.08, 0.03) mL/min/kg, larger for NIDUS (0.46, 0.30), and largest for CVVH (1.20, 0.72). Adverse events were reported in all groups. In this critically ill population with multiple organ failure, mortality was lowest for PD and highest for CVVH, with NIDUS in between. CONCLUSIONS: NIDUS delivers accurate, controllable fluid removal and adequate clearances, indicating that it has important potential alongside other modalities for infant RRT.

Residual Disease Threshold After Primary Surgical Treatment for Advanced Epithelial Ovarian Cancer, Part 1: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: We present a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) that is the precursor underpinning the Bayesian analyses that adjust for publication bias, presented in the same edition in AJT. The review assesses optimal cytoreduction for women undergoing primary advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) surgery. AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY: To assess the impact of residual disease (RD) after primary debulking surgery in women with advanced EOC. This review explores the impact of leaving varying levels of primary debulking surgery. DATA SOURCES: We conducted a systematic review and random-effects NMA for overall survival (OS) to incorporate direct and indirect estimates of RD thresholds, including concurrent comparative, retrospective studies of ≥100 adult women (18+ years) with surgically staged advanced EOC (FIGO stage III/IV) who had confirmed histological diagnoses of ovarian cancer. Pairwise meta-analyses of all directly compared RD thresholds was previously performed before conducting this NMA, and the statistical heterogeneity of studies within each comparison was evaluated using recommended methods. THERAPEUTIC ADVANCES: Twenty-five studies (n = 20,927) were included. Analyses demonstrated the prognostic importance of complete cytoreduction to no macroscopic residual disease (NMRD), with a hazard ratio for OS of 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.8-2.2) for <1 cm RD threshold versus NMRD. NMRD was associated with prolonged survival across all RD thresholds. Leaving NMRD was predicted to provide longest survival (probability of being best = 99%). The results were robust to sensitivity analysis including only those studies that adjusted for extent of disease at primary surgery (hazard ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval, 1.9-2.6). The overall certainty of evidence was moderate and statistical adjustment of effect estimates in included studies minimized bias. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm a strong association between complete cytoreduction to NMRD and improved OS. The NMA approach forms part of the methods guidance underpinning policy making in many jurisdictions. Our analyses present an extension to the previous work in this area.

Photobiomodulation in the management of oral mucositis for adult head and neck cancer patients receiving irradiation: the LiTEFORM RCT.

BACKGROUND: Oral mucositis is a debilitating and painful complication of head and neck cancer irradiation that is characterised by inflammation of the mucous membranes, erythema and ulceration. Oral mucositis affects 6000 head and neck cancer patients per year in England and Wales. Current treatments have not proven to be effective. International studies suggest that low-level laser therapy may be an effective treatment. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of low-level laser therapy in the management of oral mucositis in head and neck cancer irradiation. To identify barriers to and facilitators of implementing low-level laser therapy in routine care. DESIGN: Placebo-controlled, individually randomised, multicentre Phase III superiority trial, with an internal pilot and health economic and qualitative process evaluations. The participants, outcome assessors and therapists were blinded. SETTING: Nine NHS head and neck cancer sites in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 87 out of 380 participants were recruited who were aged ≥ 18 years and were undergoing head and neck cancer irradiation with ≥ 60 Gy. INTERVENTION: Random allocation (1 : 1 ratio) to either low-level laser therapy or sham low-level laser therapy three times per week for the duration of irradiation. The diode laser had the following specifications: wavelength 660 nm, power output 75 mW, beam area 1.5 cm2, irradiance 50 mW/cm2, exposure time 60 seconds and fluence 3 J/cm2. There were 20-30 spots per session. Sham low-level laser therapy was delivered in an identical manner. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The mean Oral Mucositis Weekly Questionnaire-Head and Neck Cancer score at 6 weeks following the start of irradiation. Higher scores indicate a worse outcome. RESULTS: A total of 231 patients were screened and, of these, 87 were randomised (low-level laser therapy arm, n = 44; sham arm, n = 43). The mean age was 59.4 years (standard deviation 8.8 years) and 69 participants (79%) were male. The mean Oral Mucositis Weekly Questionnaire-Head and Neck Cancer score at 6 weeks was 33.2 (standard deviation 10) in the low-level laser therapy arm and 27.4 (standard deviation 13.8) in the sham arm. LIMITATIONS: The trial lacked statistical power because it did not meet the recruitment target. Staff and patients willingly participated in the trial and worked hard to make the LiTEFORM trial succeed. However, the task of introducing, embedding and sustaining new low-level laser therapy services into a complex care pathway proved challenging. Sites could deliver low-level laser therapy to only a small number of patients at a time. The administration of low-level laser therapy was viewed as straightforward, but also time-consuming and sometimes uncomfortable for both patients and staff, particularly those staff who were not used to working in a patient's mouth. CONCLUSIONS: This trial had a robust design but lacked power to be definitive. Low-level laser therapy is relatively inexpensive. In contrast with previous trials, some patients found low-level laser therapy sessions to be difficult. The duration of low-level laser therapy sessions is, therefore, an important consideration. Clinicians experienced in oral cavity work most readily adapt to delivering low-level laser therapy, although other allied health professionals can be trained. Blinding the clinicians delivering low-level laser therapy is feasible. There are important human resource, real estate and logistical considerations for those setting up low-level laser therapy services. FUTURE WORK: Further well-designed randomised controlled trials investigating low-level laser therapy in head and neck cancer irradiation are needed, with similar powered recruitment targets but addressing the recruitment challenges and logistical findings from this research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ISRCTN14224600. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 46. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Around 9 out of 10 head and neck cancer patients undergoing treatment experience pain, swelling and sores in their mouth (oral mucositis). This can lead to weight loss, painful ulcers, difficulty talking, eating and drinking, and even hospitalisation. Current care includes helping patients to keep their mouth and teeth clean, encouraging them to have a healthy diet and prescribing mouthwashes, painkillers and mouth-coating gels. However, these treatments give limited help in preventing or treating this condition. The LiTEFORM trial looked at whether or not low-level laser therapy could be used to prevent and treat oral mucositis. Patients were allocated to one of two arms at random: active laser or fake (sham) laser. Neither the patients nor the hospital staff knew which laser was being used. Eighty-seven people joined the study during the time allowed (44 received low-level laser therapy and 43 received sham treatment); however, this was a smaller number than the planned target of 380 people. As a result, no meaningful conclusion can be drawn from the results about whether the therapy is beneficial or cost-effective. People receiving the low-level laser therapy reported slightly more soreness in their mouth than those receiving the sham laser, but this could be down to chance. The number of participants is too small to draw conclusions about whether or not the low-level laser is helpful. Some patients found the laser treatment sessions to be difficult. Setting up a new service delivering laser therapy at the same time as cancer treatments was more complicated than originally anticipated. Problems included the scheduling of appointments, finding suitable rooms and having enough trained staff with time to deliver laser therapy. However, this study has provided us with knowledge on how best to set up a laser therapy service in the NHS as part of the cancer treatment pathway and the costs involved. These findings could help future studies looking into low-level laser therapy for those with head and neck cancer.

Impact of residual disease as a prognostic factor for survival in women with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer after primary surgery.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer is the seventh most common cancer among women and a leading cause of death from gynaecological malignancies. Epithelial ovarian cancer is the most common type, accounting for around 90% of all ovarian cancers. This specific type of ovarian cancer starts in the surface layer covering the ovary or lining of the fallopian tube. Surgery is performed either before chemotherapy (upfront or primary debulking surgery (PDS)) or in the middle of a course of treatment with chemotherapy (neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) and interval debulking surgery (IDS)), with the aim of removing all visible tumour and achieving no macroscopic residual disease (NMRD). The aim of this review is to investigate the prognostic impact of size of residual disease nodules (RD) in women who received upfront or interval cytoreductive surgery for advanced (stage III and IV) epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). OBJECTIVES: To assess the prognostic impact of residual disease after primary surgery on survival outcomes for advanced (stage III and IV) epithelial ovarian cancer. In separate analyses, primary surgery included both upfront primary debulking surgery (PDS) followed by adjuvant chemotherapy and neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval debulking surgery (IDS). Each residual disease threshold is considered as a separate prognostic factor. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL (2021, Issue 8), MEDLINE via Ovid (to 30 August 2021) and Embase via Ovid (to 30 August 2021). SELECTION CRITERIA: We included survival data from studies of at least 100 women with advanced EOC after primary surgery. Residual disease was assessed as a prognostic factor in multivariate prognostic models. We excluded studies that reported fewer than 100 women, women with concurrent malignancies or studies that only reported unadjusted results. Women were included into two distinct groups: those who received PDS followed by platinum-based chemotherapy and those who received IDS, analysed separately. We included studies that reported all RD thresholds after surgery, but the main thresholds of interest were microscopic RD (labelled NMRD), RD 0.1 cm to 1 cm (small-volume residual disease (SVRD)) and RD > 1 cm (large-volume residual disease (LVRD)). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently abstracted data and assessed risk of bias. Where possible, we synthesised the data in meta-analysis. To assess the adequacy of adjustment factors used in multivariate Cox models, we used the 'adjustment for other prognostic factors' and 'statistical analysis and reporting' domains of the quality in prognosis studies (QUIPS) tool. We also made judgements about the certainty of the evidence for each outcome in the main comparisons, using GRADE. We examined differences between FIGO stages III and IV for different thresholds of RD after primary surgery. We considered factors such as age, grade, length of follow-up, type and experience of surgeon, and type of surgery in the interpretation of any heterogeneity. We also performed sensitivity analyses that distinguished between studies that included NMRD in RD categories of < 1 cm and those that did not. This was applicable to comparisons involving RD < 1 cm with the exception of RD < 1 cm versus NMRD. We evaluated women undergoing PDS and IDS in separate analyses. MAIN RESULTS: We found 46 studies reporting multivariate prognostic analyses, including RD as a prognostic factor, which met our inclusion criteria: 22,376 women who underwent PDS and 3697 who underwent IDS, all with varying levels of RD. While we identified a range of different RD thresholds, we mainly report on comparisons that are the focus of a key area of clinical uncertainty (involving NMRD, SVRD and LVRD). The comparison involving any visible disease (RD > 0 cm) and NMRD was also important. SVRD versus NMRD in a PDS setting In PDS studies, most showed an increased risk of death in all RD groups when those with macroscopic RD (MRD) were compared to NMRD. Women who had SVRD after PDS had more than twice the risk of death compared to women with NMRD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80 to 2.29; I2 = 50%; 17 studies; 9404 participants; moderate-certainty). The analysis of progression-free survival found that women who had SVRD after PDS had nearly twice the risk of death compared to women with NMRD (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.63 to 2.16; I2 = 63%; 10 studies; 6596 participants; moderate-certainty). LVRD versus SVRD in a PDS setting When we compared LVRD versus SVRD following surgery, the estimates were attenuated compared to NMRD comparisons. All analyses showed an overall survival benefit in women who had RD < 1 cm after surgery (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.32; I2 = 0%; 5 studies; 6000 participants; moderate-certainty). The results were robust to analyses of progression-free survival. SVRD and LVRD versus NMRD in an IDS setting The one study that defined the categories as NMRD, SVRD and LVRD showed that women who had SVRD and LVRD after IDS had more than twice the risk of death compared to women who had NMRD (HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.66; 310 participants; I2 = 56%, and HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.49 to 3.34; 343 participants; I2 = 35%; very low-certainty, for SVRD versus NMRD and LVRD versus NMRD, respectively). LVRD versus SVRD + NMRD in an IDS setting Meta-analysis found that women who had LVRD had a greater risk of death and disease progression compared to women who had either SVRD or NMRD (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.11; 6 studies; 1572 participants; I2 = 58% for overall survival and HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.52; 1145 participants; I2 = 60% for progression-free survival; very low-certainty). However, this result is biased as in all but one study it was not possible to distinguish NMRD within the < 1 cm thresholds. Only one study separated NMRD from SVRD; all others included NMRD in the SVRD group, which may create bias when comparing with LVRD, making interpretation challenging. MRD versus NMRD in an IDS setting Women who had any amount of MRD after IDS had more than twice the risk of death compared to women with NMRD (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.29, I2 = 81%; 906 participants; very low-certainty). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In a PDS setting, there is moderate-certainty evidence that the amount of RD after primary surgery is a prognostic factor for overall and progression-free survival in women with advanced ovarian cancer. We separated our analysis into three distinct categories for the survival outcome including NMRD, SVRD and LVRD. After IDS, there may be only two categories required, although this is based on very low-certainty evidence, as all but one study included NMRD in the SVRD category. The one study that separated NMRD from SVRD showed no improved survival outcome in the SVRD category, compared to LVRD. Further low-certainty evidence also supported restricting to two categories, where women who had any amount of MRD after IDS had a significantly greater risk of death compared to women with NMRD. Therefore, the evidence presented in this review cannot conclude that using three categories applies in an IDS setting (very low-certainty evidence), as was supported for PDS (which has convincing moderate-certainty evidence).

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Ultra-radical (extensive) surgery versus standard surgery for the primary cytoreduction of advanced epithelial ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer is the seventh most common cancer among women and the leading cause of death in women with gynaecological malignancies. Opinions differ regarding the role of ultra-radical (extensive) cytoreductive surgery in ovarian cancer treatment. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness and morbidity associated with ultra-radical/extensive surgery in the management of advanced-stage epithelial ovarian cancer. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL (2021, Issue 11), MEDLINE Ovid and Embase Ovid up to November 2021. We also searched registers of clinical trials, abstracts of scientific meetings, reference lists of included studies and contacted experts in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or non-randomised studies (NRS), analysed using multivariate methods, that compared ultra-radical/extensive and standard surgery in women with advanced primary epithelial ovarian cancer. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed whether potentially relevant studies met the inclusion criteria, abstracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We identified three NRS and conducted meta-analyses where possible. MAIN RESULTS: We identified three retrospective observational studies for inclusion in the review. Two studies included women exclusively undergoing upfront primary debulking surgery (PDS) and the other study including both PDS and interval debulking surgical (IDS) procedures. All studies were at critical risk of bias due to retrospective and non-randomised study designs. Meta-analysis of two studies, assessing 397 participants, found that women who underwent radical procedures, as part of PDS, may have a lower risk of mortality compared to women who underwent standard surgery (adjusted HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.82; I2 = 0%; very low-certainty evidence), but the evidence is very uncertain. The results were robust to a sensitivity analysis including women with more-extensive disease (carcinomatosis) (adjusted HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.85; I2 = 0%; n = 283, very low-certainty evidence), but the evidence is very uncertain. One study reported a comparison of radical versus standard surgical procedures associated with both PDS and IDS procedures, but a multivariate analysis was only undertaken for disease-free survival (DFS) and therefore the certainty of the evidence was not assessable for overall survival (OS) and remains very low. The lack of reporting of OS meant the study was at high risk of bias for selective reporting of outcomes. One study, 203 participants, found that women who underwent radical procedures as part of PDS may have a lower risk of disease progression or death compared to women who underwent standard surgery (adjusted HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.92; very low-certainty evidence), but the evidence is very uncertain. The results were robust to a sensitivity analysis in one study including women with carcinomatosis (adjusted HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.82; n = 139; very low-certainty evidence), but the evidence is very uncertain. A combined analysis in one study found that women who underwent radical procedures (using both PDS and IDS) may have an increased chance of disease progression or death than those who received standard surgery (adjusted HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.31; I2 = 0%; n = 527; very low-certainty evidence), but the evidence is very uncertain. In absolute and unadjusted terms, the DFS was 19.3 months in the standard surgery group, 15.8 in the PDS group and 15.9 months in the IDS group. All studies were at critical risk of bias and we only identified very low-certainty evidence for all outcomes reported in the review. Perioperative mortality, adverse events and quality of life (QoL) outcomes were either not reported or inadequately reported in the included studies. Two studies reported perioperative mortality (death within 30 days of surgery), but they did not use any statistical adjustment. In total, there were only four deaths within 30 days of surgery in both studies. All were observed in the standard surgery group, but we did not report a risk ratio (RR) to avoid potentially misleading results with so few deaths and very low-certainty evidence. Similarly, one study reported postoperative morbidity, but the authors did not use any statistical adjustment. Postoperative morbidity occurred more commonly in women who received ultra-radical surgery compared to standard surgery, but the certainty of the evidence was very low. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found only very low-certainty evidence comparing ultra-radical surgery and standard surgery in women with advanced ovarian cancer. The evidence was limited to retrospective, NRSs and so is at critical risk of bias. The results may suggest that ultra-radical surgery could result in improved OS, but results are based on very few women who were chosen to undergo each intervention, rather than a randomised study and intention-to-treat analysis, and so the evidence is very uncertain. Results for progression/DFS were inconsistent and evidence was sparse. QoL and morbidity was incompletely or not reported in the three included studies. A separate prognostic review assessing residual disease as a prognostic factor in this area has been addressed elsewhere, which demonstrates the prognostic effect of macroscopic debulking to no macroscopic residual disease. In order to aid existing guidelines, the role of ultra-radical surgery in the management of advanced-stage ovarian cancer could be addressed through the conduct of a sufficiently powered, RCT comparing ultra-radical and standard surgery, or well-designed NRSs, if this is not possible.

Neuropsychiatric Inventory domains cluster into neuropsychiatric syndromes in Alzheimer's disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Studies of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) have observed that neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) tend to co-occur as neuropsychiatric syndromes and have generally shown mixed results regarding the number and composition of syndromes. We systematically reviewed how neuropsychiatric syndromes in AD have been defined and compared the different published definitions in a pooled sample of AD patients using meta-analytic structural equation modeling (MASEM). METHODS: Studies examining the factor structure of the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) and published from 1994 to 2021 were included. We contacted the corresponding authors of eligible studies for correlation coefficients between NPI items. We pooled correlations under a random effects MASEM model and fitted and compared measurement models from published studies to identify a best-fitting model. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies were included in the systematic review, and correlations were obtained from seven studies for MASEM. For the NPI-10 (seven studies, n = 5185), a five-factor structure was found to have a good fit to the data. For the NPI-12 (four studies, n = 2397), we were unable to identify a factor structure that displayed a good model fit. CONCLUSION: This systematic review and meta-analysis contribute to the development of a theoretical model of neuropsychiatric syndromes in AD and reveals the barriers that accompany MASEM methodology.

Residual disease after primary surgery for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: expert elicitation exercise to explore opinions about potential impact of publication bias in a planned systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We consider expert opinion and its incorporation into a planned meta-analysis as a way of adjusting for anticipated publication bias. We conduct an elicitation exercise among eligible British Gynaecological Cancer Society (BGCS) members with expertise in gynaecology. DESIGN: Expert elicitation exercise. SETTING: BGCS. PARTICIPANTS: Members of the BGCS with expertise in gynaecology. METHODS: Experts were presented with details of a planned prospective systematic review and meta-analysis, assessing overall survival for the extent of excision of residual disease (RD) after primary surgery for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. Participants were asked views on the likelihood of different studies (varied in the size of the study population and the RD thresholds being compared) not being published. Descriptive statistics were produced and opinions on total number of missing studies by sample size and magnitude of effect size estimated. RESULTS: Eighteen expert respondents were included. Responders perceived publication bias to be a possibility for comparisons of RD <1 cm versus RD=0 cm, but more so for comparisons involving higher volume suboptimal RD thresholds. However, experts' perceived publication bias in comparisons of RD=0 cm versus suboptimal RD thresholds did not translate into many elicited missing studies in Part B of the elicitation exercise. The median number of missing studies estimated by responders for the main comparison of RD<1 cm versus RD=0 cm was 10 (IQR: 5-20), with the number of missing studies influenced by whether the effect size was equivocal. The median number of missing studies estimated for suboptimal RD versus RD=0 cm was lower. CONCLUSIONS: The results may raise awareness that a degree of scepticism is needed when reviewing studies comparing RD <1 cm versus RD=0 cm. There is also a belief among respondents that comparisons involving RD=0 cm and suboptimal thresholds (>1 cm) are likely to be impacted by publication bias, but this is unlikely to attenuate effect estimates in meta-analyses.

MET-PREVENT: metformin to improve physical performance in older people with sarcopenia and physical prefrailty/frailty - protocol for a double-blind, randomised controlled proof-of-concept trial.

INTRODUCTION: Skeletal muscle dysfunction is central to both sarcopenia and physical frailty, which are associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes including falls and fractures, longer hospital stays, dependency and the need for care. Resistance training may prevent and treat sarcopenia and physical frailty, but not everyone can or wants to exercise. Finding alternatives is critical to alleviate the burden of adverse outcomes associated with sarcopenia and physical frailty. This trial will provide proof-of-concept evidence as to whether metformin can improve physical performance in older people with sarcopenia and physical prefrailty or frailty. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: MET-PREVENT is a parallel group, double-blind, placebo-controlled proof-of-concept trial. Trial participants can participate from their own homes, including completing informed consent and screening assessments. Eligible participants with low grip strength or prolonged sit-to-stand time together with slow walk speed will be randomised to either oral metformin hydrochloride 500 mg tablets or matched placebo, taken three times a day for 4 months. The recruitment target is 80 participants from two secondary care hospitals in Newcastle and Gateshead, UK. Local primary care practices will act as participant identification centres. Randomisation will be performed using a web-based minimisation system with a random element, balancing on sex and baseline walk speed. Participants will be followed up for 4 months post-randomisation, with outcomes collected at baseline and 4 months. The primary outcome measure is the four metre walk speed at the 4-month follow-up visit. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has been approved by the Liverpool NHS Research Ethics Committee (20/NW/0470), the Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Authority (EudraCT 2020-004023-16) and the UK Health Research Authority (IRAS 275219). Results will be made available to participants, their families, patients with sarcopenia, the public, regional and national clinical teams, and the international scientific community. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN29932357.

Multinational Survey of Treatment Practices of Clinicians Managing Subclinical Hypothyroidism in Older People in 2019.

BACKGROUND: International societies have recommended that levothyroxine should not routinely be prescribed in older individuals for the management of mild subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH). However, it is unknown whether clinicians managing people with SCH are either aware of or adhere to these guidelines. METHODS: A web-based survey of members of several international thyroid associations and general practitioners in North-East England was conducted. Respondents were presented with a vignette of an 80-year-old gentleman with mild persistent SCH experiencing tiredness. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate predictors of awareness of guidelines and responses to treatment. RESULTS: The survey response rate was 21.9% (565/2,583). Only 7.6% of clinicians were unaware of guidelines regarding management of SCH in older people. Twenty percent of clinicians stated that they would treat the older patient with mild SCH, whereas 13% were unsure. Clinicians from North America were more likely to treat the older person with mild SCH than clinicians from elsewhere (OR 2.24 [1.25-3.98]). Likewise, non-endocrinologists were also more likely than endocrinologists to treat the older person with mild SCH (OR 3.26 [1.45-6.47]). CONCLUSION: The majority of clinicians are aware of guidelines regarding management of SCH in older individuals. However, a considerable proportion of clinicians would still treat an older person with non-specific symptoms and mild SCH. These guidelines need to be disseminated more widely and more research is required to understand barriers to adherence to international recommendations.

A global country-level analysis of the relationship between obesity and COVID-19 cases and mortality.

AIM: To assess the association of country-level obesity prevalence with COVID-19 case and mortality rates, to evaluate the impact of obesity prevalence on worldwide variation. METHODS: Data on COVID-19 prevalence and mortality, country-specific governmental actions, socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare capacity factors were extracted from publicly available sources. Multivariable negative binomial regression was used to assess the independent association of obesity with COVID-19 case and mortality rates. RESULTS: Across 168 countries for which data were available, higher obesity prevalence was associated with increased COVID-19 mortality and prevalence rates. For every 1% increase in obesity prevalence, the mortality rate was increased by 8.3% (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.083, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.048-1.119; P < 0.001) and the case rate was higher by 6.6% (IRR 1.066, 95% CI 1.035-1.099; P < 0.001). Additionally, higher median population age, greater female ratio, higher Human Development Index (HDI), lower population density, and lower hospital bed availability were all significantly associated with higher COVID-19 mortality rate. In addition, stricter governmental actions, higher HDI and lower mean annual temperature were significantly associated with higher COVID-19 case rate. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate that obesity prevalence is a significant and potentially modifiable risk factor of increased COVID-19 national caseload and mortality. Future research to study whether weight loss improves COVID-19 outcomes is urgently required.

BIOlogical Factors that Limit sustAined Remission in rhEumatoid arthritis (the BIO-FLARE study): protocol for a non-randomised longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Our knowledge of immune-mediated inflammatory disease (IMID) aetiology and pathogenesis has improved greatly over recent years, however, very little is known of the factors that trigger disease relapses (flares), converting diseases from inactive to active states. Focussing on rheumatoid arthritis (RA), the challenge that we will address is why IMIDs remit and relapse. Extrapolating from pathogenetic factors involved in disease initiation, new episodes of inflammation could be triggered by recurrent systemic immune dysregulation or locally by factors within the joint, either of which could be endorsed by overarching epigenetic factors or changes in systemic or localised metabolism. METHODS: The BIO-FLARE study is a non-randomised longitudinal cohort study that aims to enrol 150 patients with RA in remission on a stable dose of non-biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs), who consent to discontinue treatment. Participants stop their DMARDs at time 0 and are offered an optional ultrasound-guided synovial biopsy. They are studied intensively, with blood sampling and clinical evaluation at weeks 0, 2, 5, 8, 12 and 24. It is anticipated that 50% of participants will have a disease flare, whilst 50% remain in drug-free remission for the study duration (24 weeks). Flaring participants undergo an ultrasound-guided synovial biopsy before reinstatement of previous treatment. Blood samples will be used to investigate immune cell subsets, their activation status and their cytokine profile, autoantibody profiles and epigenetic profiles. Synovial biopsies will be examined to profile cell lineages and subtypes present at flare. Blood, urine and synovium will be examined to determine metabolic profiles. Taking into account all generated data, multivariate statistical techniques will be employed to develop a model to predict impending flare in RA, highlighting therapeutic pathways and informative biomarkers. Despite initial recruitment to time and target, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has impacted significantly, and a decision was taken to close recruitment at 118 participants with complete data. DISCUSSION: This study aims to investigate the pathogenesis of flare in rheumatoid arthritis, which is a significant knowledge gap in our understanding, addressing a major unmet patient need. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was retrospectively registered on 27/06/2019 in the ISRCTN registry 16371380 .

Low Accuracy of Brief Cognitive Tests in Tracking Longitudinal Cognitive Decline in an Asian Elderly Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Researchers have questioned the utility of brief cognitive tests such as the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE) and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) in serial administration and suggested that brief cognitive tests may not accurately track changes in Global Cognition. OBJECTIVE: To examine the accuracy of longitudinal changes on brief cognitive tests in reflecting progression in Global Cognition measured using comprehensive neuropsychological assessments. METHODS: Two hundred and seven participants were assessed with the MMSE, MoCA, and a validated comprehensive neuropsychological battery. Global z-scores on the battery were derived and used to assess overall and significant (≥0.5 standard deviation) decline on Global Cognition. Different patterns of decline on MMSE/MoCA were classified. Accuracy was examined using receiver operating characteristic curve, and sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values were reported. RESULTS: The overall ability of MMSE/MoCA change scores to discriminate participants who did and did not decline on Global Cognition was fair-to-moderate (AUC [95% CI] = 0.71 [0.64-0.78] & 0.73 [0.66-0.80] for overall decline; 0.78 [0.70-0.85] & 0.80 [0.73-0.86] for significant decline, respectively). Changes in MMSE/MoCA had low accuracy in identifying significant Global Cognitive Decline (PPV = 0.41 & 0.46, respectively) but high accuracy in ruling out significant decline and identifying cognitively stable participants (NPV = 0.89 & 0.88, respectively). CONCLUSION: There is limited utility in brief cognitive tests for tracking cognitive decline. Instead, they should be used for identifying participants who remain cognitively stable on follow up. These results accentuate the importance of acknowledging the limitations of brief cognitive tests when assessing cognitive change.

Neuropsychiatric symptoms in South-East Asian patients with mild cognitive impairment and dementia: prevalence, subtypes, and risk factors.

BACKGROUND: The subtypes and risk factors of neuropsychiatric symptoms remain largely unexplored in South-East Asian populations. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the prevalence, subtypes, and risk factors, namely, demographic, medical morbidity, and cognitive impairment associated with neuropsychiatric symptoms in a South-East Asian cohort of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. METHODS: A clinical cohort of 38 MCI and 198 mild-moderate dementia patients were assessed using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Questionnaire. RESULTS: Neuropsychiatric symptoms were equally prevalent among patients with MCI (74%) and mild-moderate dementia (85%). Three subtypes of symptoms were identified for each diagnostic group; for MCI, they included mood disturbances, anxiety/sleep problems, and psychosis, while for dementia, the subtypes included behavioral disturbances, psychosis/mood, and hyperactive behaviors. The largest risk for neuropsychiatric symptoms for both MCI and dementia patients was male gender. Among patients with MCI, burden of cerebrovascular disease and global cognitive impairment were small risks for neuropsychiatric symptoms, while for patients with dementia, an older age (>65 years) was a small risk and lower educational attainment was a moderate risk. DISCUSSION: These findings contribute to the worldwide epidemiology of neuropsychiatric symptoms in MCI and dementia and highlight that the profile of symptoms, subtypes, and risks is fairly homogenous across Western and Asian cultures. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Atrial Fibrillation is Independently Associated with Cognitive Impairment after Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND: While atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for ischemic strokes and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in Alzheimer's disease, the association between AF and post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI), and the factors mediating this association, is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the role of AF in PSCI, especially in relation to other markers of cerebrovascular disease. METHODS: 445 subjects with mild ischemic stroke without pre-stroke cognitive decline were assessed 3-6 months post-stroke for cognitive deficits. MRIs were reviewed by trained raters for acute infarct characteristics, global cortical atrophy, white matter hyperintensities, cerebral microbleeds, and intracranial stenosis. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors independently associated with PSCI. Subjects were also categorized according to paroxysmal (pAF) or persistent/chronic AF (p/cAF), and presence or absence of AF or large cortical infarcts (LCI) to study cognitive trends. RESULTS: 80 (18.0%) subjects had AF. 76.3% of AF subjects and 42.7% of subjects without AF had PSCI. The odds ratio (OR) of AF in developing PSCI was 2.31 (95% CI: 1.12-4.75; p = 0.035), after correcting for other risk factors. pAF subjects and AF subjects with LCIs had higher ORs for PSCI. AF subjects performed worse in neuropsychological tasks associated with global cognition, episodic memory, and executive function. CONCLUSION: AF is a significant risk factor for PSCI, even after correcting for AF-related infarcts. Other mechanisms, such as hypoperfusion, microhemorrhages, and neuroinflammation, may be at play. All stroke patients with AF, regardless of the type of infarction, should be closely monitored for PSCI.