Inequalities in life expectancy and cardiometabolic disease mortality across and within high-income countries.

Cardiometabolic disease is a leading cause of death and plays a key role in recent life expectancy trends worldwide. We highlight inequalities in cardiometabolic disease mortality across sex, race/ethnicity, geographic region, and urbanicity within the United States, as well as across high-income countries.

Life Course Patterns of Prescription Drug Use in the United States.

Prescription drug use has reached historic highs in the United States-a trend linked to increases in medicalization, institutional factors relating to the health care and pharmaceutical industries, and population aging and growing burdens of chronic disease. Despite the high and rising prevalence of use, no estimates exist of the total number of years Americans can expect to spend taking prescription drugs over their lifetimes. This study provides the first estimates of life course patterns of prescription drug use using data from the 1996-2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys, the Human Mortality Database, and the National Center for Health Statistics. Newborns in 2019 could be expected to take prescription drugs for roughly half their lives: 47.54 years for women and 36.84 years for men. The number of years individuals can expect to take five or more drugs increased substantially. Americans also experienced particularly dramatic increases in years spent taking statins, antihypertensives, and antidepressants. There are also important differences in prescription drug use by race and ethnicity: non-Hispanic Whites take the most, Hispanics take the least, and non-Hispanic Blacks fall in between these extremes. Americans are taking drugs over a wide and expanding swathe of the life course, a testament to the centrality of prescription drugs in Americans' lives today.

The Relationship Between Multimorbidity and Types of Chronic Diseases and Self-Rated Memory.

This study explores the impact of multimorbidity and types of chronic diseases on self-rated memory in older adults in the United States. Data were drawn from the 2011 wave of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS, N = 6,481). Logistic regressions were used to examine the associations between multimorbidity and types of chronic diseases and fair/poor self-rated memory. Compared to respondents with no or one chronic disease, respondents with multimorbidity showed 35% higher odds of reporting fair/poor self-rated memory. Also, stroke, osteoporosis, and arthritis were identified as increasing the odds of reporting fair/poor self-rated memory by 41%, 20%, and 30%, respectively. Demonstrating the importance of both multimorbidity and types of chronic diseases in self-reporting of memory, our findings suggest the need to educate older adults with multimorbidity and certain types of diseases regarding negative self-rated memory and its consequences.

Smoking and the widening inequality in life expectancy between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of the United States.

Background: Geographic inequality in US mortality has increased rapidly over the last 25 years, particularly between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. These gaps are sizeable and rival life expectancy differences between the US and other high-income countries. This study determines the contribution of smoking, a key contributor to premature mortality in the US, to geographic inequality in mortality over the past quarter century. Methods: We used death certificate and census data covering the entire US population aged 50+ between Jan 1, 1990 and Dec 31, 2019. We categorized counties into 40 geographic areas cross-classified by region and metropolitan category. We estimated life expectancy at age 50 and the index of dissimilarity for mortality, a measure of inequality in mortality, with and without smoking for these areas in 1990-1992 and 2017-2019. We estimated the changes in life expectancy levels and percent change in inequality in mortality due to smoking between these periods. Results: We find that the gap in life expectany between metros and nonmetros increased by 2.17 years for men and 2.77 years for women. Changes in smoking-related deaths are responsible for 19% and 22% of those increases, respectively. Among the 40 geographic areas, increases in life expectancy driven by changes in smoking ranged from 0.91 to 2.34 years for men while, for women, smoking-related changes ranged from a 0.61-year decline to a 0.45-year improvement. The most favorable trends in years of life lost to smoking tended to be concentrated in large central metros in the South and Midwest, while the least favorable trends occurred in nonmetros in these same regions. Smoking contributed to increases in mortality inequality for men aged 70+, with the contribution ranging from 8 to 24%, and for women aged 50-84, ranging from 14 to 44%. Conclusions: Mortality attributable to smoking is declining fastest in large cities and coastal areas and more slowly in nonmetropolitan areas of the US. Increasing geographic inequalities in mortality are partly due to these geographic divergences in smoking patterns over the past several decades. Policies addressing smoking in non-metropolitan areas may reduce geographic inequality in mortality and contribute to future gains in life expectancy.

The rising burden of Alzheimer's disease mortality in rural America.

Since the 1990s, there has been a striking urban-rural divergence in life expectancy within the United States, with metropolitan areas achieving strong life expectancy increases and nonmetropolitan areas experiencing stagnation or actual declines in life expectancy. While Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) are likely to pose a particular challenge in nonmetropolitan areas, we know relatively little about the level of ADRD mortality in nonmetropolitan areas, how it has changed over time, and whether it is contributing to metropolitan/nonmetropolitan life expectancy gaps. This study finds that ADRD mortality has risen more rapidly in nonmetropolitan areas than in all other metro areas (large central metros, suburbs, and medium/small cities) between 1999 and 2019. While death rates from ADRD were nearly identical in large central metros and nonmetros in 1999, a clear metro/nonmetro gradient has emerged and widened substantially over the past two decades. Today, nonmetros now experience the highest levels of ADRD mortality, while large central metros have the lowest levels. These metro/nonmetro gaps in ADRD differ substantially by region, with the largest gaps observed in the Middle Atlantic and South Atlantic. The contribution of ADRD to metro/nonmetro differences life expectancy at age 65 is now considerable in many regions, reaching up to 30% for women and 13% for men. In several regions, ADRD's contribution to female life expectancy gaps is on par with or exceeds the contributions of other leading causes of death such as heart disease, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases. The rising burden of Alzheimer's disease mortality is likely to pose a substantial challenge in rural areas of the United States which are aging rapidly, experiencing adverse mortality trends, and increasingly disadvantaged in terms of socioeconomic resources and health care infrastructure.

Causes of America's Lagging Life Expectancy: An International Comparative Perspective.

OBJECTIVES: This study assesses how American life expectancy compares to other high-income countries and identifies key age groups and causes of death responsible for the U.S. life expectancy shortfall. METHODS: Data from the Human Mortality Database, World Health Organization Mortality Database, and vital statistics agencies for 18 high-income countries are used to examine trends in U.S. life expectancy gaps and how American age-specific death rates compare to other countries. Decomposition is used to estimate the contribution of 19 age groups and 16 causes to the U.S. life expectancy shortfall. RESULTS: In 2018, life expectancy for American men and women was 5.18 and 5.82 years lower than the world leaders and 3.60 and 3.48 years lower than the average of the comparison countries. Americans aged 25-29 experience death rates nearly 3 times higher than their counterparts. Together, injuries (drug overdose, firearm-related deaths, motor vehicle accidents, homicide), circulatory diseases, and mental disorders/nervous system diseases (including Alzheimer's disease) account for 86% and 67% of American men's and women's life expectancy shortfall, respectively. DISCUSSION: American life expectancy has fallen far behind its peer countries. The U.S.'s worsening mortality at the prime adult ages and eroding old-age mortality advantage drive its deteriorating performance in international comparisons.

Immigration and improvements in American life expectancy.

Despite the immigrant mortality advantage and the increasing share of the population born abroad, relatively little is known about how immigration has impacted trends in US life expectancy. How immigrants contribute to national life expectancy trends is of increasing interest, particularly in the context of an unprecedented stagnation in American mortality. We find that immigration increases US life expectancy by 1.5 years for men and 1.4 years for women. Over half of these contributions occur at the prime working ages of 25-64. The difference between foreign-born and US-born mortality has grown substantially since 1990, with the ratio of US-born to foreign-born mortality rates nearly doubling by 2017. In that year, foreign-born life expectancy reached 81.4 and 85.7 years for men and women, respectively-7.0 and 6.2 years higher than their US-origin counterparts. These life expectancy levels are remarkable by most standards. Foreign-born male life expectancy exceeds that of Swiss men, the world leaders in male life expectancy. Life expectancy for foreign-born women is close to that of Japanese women, the world leaders in female life expectancy. The widening mortality difference between the US-born and foreign-born populations, coupled with an increase in the share of the population born abroad, has been responsible for much of the increase in national life expectancy in recent years. Between 2007 and 2017, foreign-born men and women were responsible for 44% and 60% of national life expectancy improvements. Between 2010 and 2017, immigrants experienced gains while the US-born experienced declines in life expectancy. Thus, nearly all of the post-2010 mortality stagnation is due to adverse trends among the US-born. Without immigrants and their children, national life expectancy in 2017 would be reduced to its 2003 levels. These findings demonstrate that immigration acts to bolster American life expectancy, with particularly valuable contributions at the prime working ages.

Improved survival for individuals with common chronic conditions in the Medicare population.

It is well established that the United States lags behind peer nations in life expectancy, but it is less established that there is heterogeneity in life expectancy trends. We compared mortality trends from 2004 to 2014 for the United States with 17 high-income countries for persons under and over 65. The United States ranked last in survival gains for the young but ranked near the middle for persons over 65, the group with universal access to public insurance. To explore the over-65 mortality trend, we estimated Cox proportional hazards models for individuals soon after entering Medicare. These were estimated separately by race and sex, controlling for 26 chronic conditions and condition-specific time trends. The separate regressions enabled survival comparisons for the 2004 and 2014 cohorts by race and sex, conditional on baseline health. We predicted 5-year survival for all combinations of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and ischemic heart disease (IHD). All 16 combinations of these conditions showed survival gains, with diabetes as a key driver. Notably, survival improved and racial disparities narrowed for individuals with diabetes, hypertension, and IHD. White females, black females, white males, and black males gained 3.61, 3.90, 3.57, and 5.89 percentage points in 5-year survival, respectively.

Rural-Urban Differences in Adult Life Expectancy in Indonesia: A Parametric g-formula-based Decomposition Approach.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on rural-urban differences in adult mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is limited and mixed. We examined the size of and factors contributing to rural-urban life expectancy differences among adults in Indonesia, the third most populous LMIC. METHODS: Data come from the 2000, 2007, and 2014/2015 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey, a population-representative longitudinal study with mortality follow-up. We used Poisson regression and life tables to estimate rural-urban differences in life expectancy among 18,867 adult respondents ≥30 years. We then used a novel g-formula-based decomposition to quantify the contribution of rural-urban differences in blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), and smoking to life expectancy differences. RESULTS: Compared with urban adults, life expectancy at age 30 was 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.4, 3.9) years higher for rural men and 1.2 (95% CI = -0.4, 2.7) years higher for rural women. Setting the BMI and systolic BP distribution equal in urban and rural adults reduced the urban mortality penalty by 22% for men and 78% for women, with the majority of this reduction coming from the contribution of rural-urban differences in BMI. Smoking did not contribute to the urban mortality penalty for either men or women. CONCLUSIONS: Adult life expectancy is lower in urban than in rural areas in Indonesia and we estimate that this difference is partly related to differences in BMI and systolic BP.

Cycles of Gender Convergence and Divergence in Drug Overdose Mortality.

The United States is 25 years into a large-scale drug overdose epidemic, yet its consequences for gender differences remain largely unexplored. This study finds that drug overdose mortality increased seven- and fivefold for men and women, respectively; accounts for 0.8-year (men) and 0.4-year (women) deficits in life expectancy at birth in 2017; and has made an increasing contribution (from 1 percent to 17 percent) to women's life expectancy advantage at the prime adult ages between 1990 and 2017. I document a distinctive cyclicality to sex differences in drug overdose. During the epidemic's early stages - the heyday of prescription opioids - gender differences narrowed, but once the epidemic transitioned to illicit drugs in 2010, gender differences widened again. This pattern holds across racial/ethnic groups, and in fact may be even stronger among Hispanics and non-Hispanic Blacks than among non-Hispanic Whites. That we observe this gender dynamic across racial/ethnic groups is surprising since very different trends in drug overdose mortality have been observed for Whites versus other groups. The contemporary epidemic is a case of dynamic change in gender differences, and the differential mortality risks experienced by men and women reflect gendered social norms, attitudes towards risk, and patterns of diffusion.

Recent trends in life expectancy across high income countries: retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether declines in life expectancy occurred across high income countries during 2014-16, to identify the causes of death contributing to these declines, and to examine the extent to which these declines were driven by shared or differing factors across countries. DESIGN: Demographic analysis using aggregated data. SETTING: Vital statistics systems of 18 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. PARTICIPANTS: 18 countries with high quality all cause and cause specific mortality data available in 2014-16. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Life expectancy at birth, 0-65 years, and 65 or more years and cause of death contributions to changes in life expectancy at birth. RESULTS: The majority of high income countries in the study experienced declines in life expectancy during 2014-15; of the 18 countries, 12 experienced declines in life expectancy among women and 11 experienced declines in life expectancy among men. The average decline was 0.21 years for women and 0.18 years for men. In most countries experiencing declines in life expectancy, these declines were predominantly driven by trends in older age (≥65 years) mortality and in deaths related to respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, nervous system disease, and mental disorders. In the United States, declines in life expectancy were more concentrated at younger ages (0-65 years), and drug overdose and other external causes of death played important roles in driving these declines. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the countries that experienced declines in life expectancy during 2014-15 experienced robust gains in life expectancy during 2015-16 that more than compensated for the declines. However, the United Kingdom and the United States appear to be experiencing stagnating or continued declines in life expectancy, raising questions about future trends in these countries.

The Contribution of Drug Overdose to Educational Gradients in Life Expectancy in the United States, 1992-2011.

Since the mid-1990s, the United States has witnessed a dramatic rise in drug overdose mortality. Educational gradients in life expectancy widened over the same period, and drug overdose likely plays a role in this widening, particularly for non-Hispanic whites. The contemporary drug epidemic is distinctive in terms of its scope, the nature of the substances involved, and its geographic patterning, which influence how it impacts different education groups. I use vital statistics and National Health Interview Survey data to examine the contribution of drug overdose to educational gradients in life expectancy from 1992-2011. I find that over this period, years of life lost due to drug overdose increased for all education groups and for both males and females. The contribution of drug overdose to educational gradients in life expectancy has increased over time and is greater for non-Hispanic whites than for the population as a whole. Drug overdose accounts for a sizable proportion of the increases in educational gradients in life expectancy, particularly at the prime adult ages (ages 30-60), where it accounts for 25 % to 100 % of the widening in educational gradients between 1992 and 2011. Drug overdose mortality has increased more rapidly for females than for males, leading to a gender convergence. These findings shed light on the processes driving recent changes in educational gradients in life expectancy and suggest that effective measures to address the drug overdose epidemic should take into account its differential burden across education groups.

Contribution of smoking-attributable mortality to life expectancy differences by marital status among Finnish men and women, 1971-2010.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is known to vary by marital status, but little is known about its contribution to marital status differences in longevity. We examined the changing contribution of smoking to mortality differences between married and never married, divorced or widowed Finnish men and women aged 50 years and above in 1971-2010. DATA AND METHODS: The data sets cover all persons permanently living in Finland in the census years 1970, 1975 through 2000 and 2005 with a five-year mortality follow-up. Smoking-attributable mortality was estimated using an indirect method that uses lung cancer mortality as an indicator for the impact of smoking on mortality from all other causes. RESULTS: Life expectancy differences between the married and the other marital status groups increased rapidly over the 40-year study period because of the particularly rapid decline in mortality among married individuals. In 1971-1975 37-48% of life expectancy differences between married and divorced or widowed men were attributable to smoking, and this contribution declined to 11-18% by 2006-2010. Among women, in 1971-1975 up to 16% of life expectancy differences by marital status were due to smoking, and the contribution of smoking increased over time to 10-29% in 2006-2010. CONCLUSIONS: In recent decades smoking has left large but decreasing imprints on marital status differences in longevity between married and previously married men, and small but increasing imprints on these differences among women. Over time the contribution of other factors, such as increasing material disadvantage or alcohol use, may have increased.

Adult Mortality Five Years after a Natural Disaster.

Exposure to extreme events has been hypothesized to affect subsequent mortality because of mortality selection and scarring effects of the event itself. We examine survival at and in the five years after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami for a population-representative sample of residents of Aceh, Indonesia who were differentially exposed to the disaster. For this population, the dynamics of selection and scarring are a complex function of the degree of tsunami impact in the community, the nature of individual exposures, age at exposure, and gender. Among individuals from tsunami-affected communities we find evidence for positive mortality selection among older individuals, with stronger effects for males than for females, and that this selection dominates any scarring impact of stressful exposures that elevate mortality. Among individuals from other communities, where mortality selection does not play a role, there is evidence of scarring with property loss associated with elevated mortality risks in the five years after the disaster among adults age 50 or older at the time of the disaster.

Early-Life Environmental Exposures and Height, Hypertension, and Cardiovascular Risk Factors Among Older Adults in India.

Environmental exposures like rainfall and temperature influence infectious disease exposure and nutrition, two key early-life conditions linked to later-life health. However, few tests of whether early-life environmental exposures impact adult health have been performed, particularly in developing countries. This study examines the effects of experiencing rainfall and temperature shocks during gestation and up through the first four years after birth on measured height, hypertension, and other cardiovascular risk factors using data on adults aged 50 and above (N = 1,036) from the 2007-2008 World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) and district-level meteorological data from India. Results from multivariate logistic regressions show that negative rainfall shocks during gestation and positive rainfall shocks during the postbirth period increase the risk of having adult hypertension and CVD risk factors. Exposure to negative rainfall shocks and positive temperature shocks in the postbirth period increases the likelihood of falling within the lowest height decile. Prenatal shocks may influence nutrition in utero, while postnatal shocks may increase exposure to infectious diseases and malnutrition. The results suggest that gestation and the first two years after birth are critical periods when rainfall and temperature shocks take on increased importance for adult health.

The Contribution of Smoking to Educational Gradients in U.S. Life Expectancy.

Researchers have documented widening educational gradients in mortality in the United States since the 1970s. While smoking has been proposed as a key explanation for this trend, no prior study has quantified the contribution of smoking to increasing education gaps in longevity. We estimate the contribution of smoking to educational gradients in life expectancy using data on white men and women ages 50 and older from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (N = 283,430; 68,644 deaths) and the National Health Interview Survey (N = 584,811; 127,226 deaths) in five periods covering the 1980s to 2006. In each period, smoking makes an important contribution to education gaps in longevity for white men and women. Smoking accounts for half the increase in the gap for white women but does not explain the widening gap for white men in the most recent period. Addressing greater initiation and continued smoking among the less educated may reduce mortality inequalities.

Mortality under age 50 accounts for much of the fact that US life expectancy lags that of other high-income countries.

Life expectancy at birth in the United States is among the lowest of all high-income countries. Most recent studies have concentrated on older ages, finding that Americans have a lower life expectancy at age fifty and experience higher levels of disease and disability than do their counterparts in other industrialized nations. Using cross-national mortality data to identify the key age groups and causes of death responsible for these shortfalls, I found that mortality differences below age fifty account for two-thirds of the gap in life expectancy at birth between American males and their counterparts in sixteen comparison countries. Among females, the figure is two-fifths. The major causes of death responsible for the below-fifty trends are unintentional injuries, including drug overdose--a fact that constitutes the most striking finding from this study; noncommunicable diseases; perinatal conditions, such as pregnancy complications and birth trauma; and homicide. In all, this study highlights the importance of focusing on younger ages and on policies both to prevent the major causes of death below age fifty and to reduce social inequalities.

The changing contribution of smoking to educational differences in life expectancy: indirect estimates for Finnish men and women from 1971 to 2010.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the contribution of smoking to educational differences in mortality and life expectancy between 1971 and 2010 in Finland. METHODS: Eight prospective datasets with baseline in 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 and each linked to a 5-year mortality follow-up were used. We calculated life expectancy at age 50 years with and without smoking-attributable mortality by education and gender. Estimates of smoking-attributable mortality were based on an indirect method that used lung cancer mortality as a proxy for the impact of smoking on mortality from all other causes. RESULTS: Smoking-attributable deaths constituted about 27% of all male deaths above age 50 years in the early 1970s and 17% in the period 2006-2010; these figures were 1% and 4% among women, respectively. The life expectancy differential between men with basic versus high education increased from 3.4 to 4.7 years between 1971-1975 and 2006-2010. In the absence of smoking, these differences would have been 1.5 and 3.4 years, 1.9 years (55%) and 1.3 years (29%) less than those observed. Among women, educational differentials in life expectancy between the most and least educated increased from 2.5 to 3.0 years. This widening was nearly entirely accounted for by the increasing impact of smoking. Among women the contribution of smoking to educational differences had increased from being negligible in 1971-1975 to 16% in 2006-2010. CONCLUSIONS: Among men, the increase in educational differences in mortality in the past decades was driven by factors other than smoking. However, smoking continues to have a major influence on educational differences in mortality among men and its contribution is increasing among women.