Modelling grass pollen levels in Belgium.

Biogenic aerosols such as airborne grass pollen affect the public health badly by putting additional distress on people already suffering from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. In Belgium, daily airborne pollen concentrations are monitored offline at a few sites only, hampering the timely coverage of the country and short-term forecasts. Here we apply the Chemistry Transport Model SILAM to the Belgian territory to model the spatio-temporal airborne grass pollen levels near the surface based on bottom-up inventories of grass pollen emissions updated with the Copernicus land monitoring Service grassland map of 2015. Transport of aerosols in SILAM is driven by ECMWF ERA5 meteorological data. The emitted grass pollen amounts in SILAM are computed by the multiplication of the grass pollen source map with the release rate determined by the seasonal shape production curve during the grass flowering period. The onset and offset of this period follow a location-dependent prescribed calendar days. Here we optimize the grass pollen seasonal start and end in SILAM by comparing a 2008-2018 time series of daily airborne grass pollen concentrations from the Belgian aerobiological surveillance network with the simulations. The effect of the spatial distribution of grass pollen sources is quantified by constructing pollen source-receptor relations using model simulations with varying grass pollen emissions in five areas of the model domain as input. Up to 33% of the airborne grass pollen in one area was transport from others areas inside Belgium. Adjusting the start and end of the grass pollen season improved the model performance substantially by almost doubling the correlation with local observations. By introducing the temporal scaling of the inter-seasonal pollen amounts in the model, an additional R2 increase up to 22% was obtained. Further improvements can be made by including more detailed grass pollen sources and more dynamic start and end dates of the pollen season.

Residential green space and seasonal distress in a cohort of tree pollen allergy patients.

BACKGROUND: Residential green space may improve human health, for example by promoting physical activity and by reducing stress. Conversely, residential green space may increase stress by emitting aeroallergens and exacerbating allergic disease. Here we examine impacts of exposure to residential green space on distress in the susceptible subpopulation of adults sensitized to tree pollen allergens. METHODS: In a panel study of 88 tree pollen allergy patients we analyzed self-reported mental health (GHQ-12), perceived presence of allergenic trees (hazel, alder, birch) near the residence and residential green space area within 1 km distance [high (≥3 m) and low (<3 m) green]. Results were adjusted for patients' background data (gender, age, BMI, smoking status, physical activity, commuting distance, education level, allergy medication use and chronic respiratory problems) and compared with distress in the general population (N = 2467). RESULTS: Short-term distress [mean GHQ-12 score 2.1 (95% confidence interval 1.5-2.7)] was higher in the study population than in the general population [1.5 (1.4-1.7)]. Residential green space had protective effects against short-term distress [high green, per combined surface area of 10 ha: adjusted odds ratio OR = 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90-0.99); low green, per 10 ha: OR = 0.85 (0.78-0.93)]. However, distress was higher in patients who reported perceived presence of allergenic trees near their residence [present vs. absent: OR = 2.04 (1.36-3.07)]. CONCLUSIONS: Perceived presence of allergenic tree species in the neighbourhood of the residence of tree pollen allergy patients modulates the protective effect of residential green space against distress during the airborne tree pollen season.

Relationships between aeroallergen levels and hospital admissions for asthma in the Brussels-Capital Region: a daily time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Outdoor pollen grain and fungal spore concentrations have been associated with severe asthma exacerbations at the population level. The specific impact of each taxon and the concomitant effect of air pollution on these symptoms have, however, still to be better characterized. This study aimed to investigate the short-term associations between ambient concentrations of various aeroallergens and hospitalizations related to asthma in the Brussels-Capital Region (Belgium), an area recording especially high rates of admissions. METHODS: Based on administrative records of asthma hospitalizations and regular monitoring of 11 tree/herbaceous pollen taxa and 2 fungal spore taxa, daily time series analyses covering the 2008-2013 period were performed. Effects up to 6 days after exposure were captured by combining quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of the week, public holidays, mean temperature and relative humidity. Effect modification by age and air pollution (PM, NO2, O3) was tested. RESULTS: A significant increase in asthma hospitalizations was observed for an interquartile range increase in grass (5.9%, 95% CI: 0.0, 12.0), birch (3.2%, 95% CI: 1.1, 5.3) and hornbeam (0.7%, 95% CI: 0.2, 1.3) pollen concentrations. For several taxa including grasses, an age modification effect was notable, the hospitalization risk tending to be higher in individuals younger than 60 years. Air pollutants impacted the relationships too: the risk appeared to be stronger for grass and birch pollen concentrations in case of high PM10 and O3 concentrations respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that airborne grass, birch and hornbeam pollen are associated with severe asthma exacerbations in the Brussels region. These compounds appear to act in synergy with air pollution and to more specifically affect young and intermediate age groups. Most of these life-threatening events could theoretically be prevented with improved disease diagnosis/management and targeted communication actions.

A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe.

The paper suggests a methodology for predicting next-year seasonal pollen index (SPI, a sum of daily-mean pollen concentrations) over large regions and demonstrates its performance for birch in Northern and North-Eastern Europe. A statistical model is constructed using meteorological, geophysical and biological characteristics of the previous year). A cluster analysis of multi-annual data of European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) revealed several large regions in Europe, where the observed SPI exhibits similar patterns of the multi-annual variability. We built the model for the northern cluster of stations, which covers Finland, Sweden, Baltic States, part of Belarus, and, probably, Russia and Norway, where the lack of data did not allow for conclusive analysis. The constructed model was capable of predicting the SPI with correlation coefficient reaching up to 0.9 for some stations, odds ratio is infinitely high for 50% of sites inside the region and the fraction of prediction falling within factor of 2 from observations, stays within 40-70%. In particular, model successfully reproduced both the bi-annual cycle of the SPI and years when this cycle breaks down.

Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium.

A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

Short-Term Effect of Pollen and Spore Exposure on Allergy Morbidity in the Brussels-Capital Region.

Belgium is among the European countries that are the most affected by allergic rhinitis. Pollen grains and fungal spores represent important triggers of symptoms. However, few studies have investigated their real link with disease morbidity over several years. Based on aeroallergen counts and health insurance datasets, the relationship between daily changes in pollen, fungal spore concentrations and daily changes in reimbursable systemic antihistamine sales has been investigated between 2005 and 2011 in the Brussels-Capital Region. A Generalized Linear Model was used and adjusted for air pollution, meteorological conditions, flu, seasonal component and day of the week. We observed an augmentation in drug sales despite no significant increase in allergen levels in the long term. The relative risk of buying allergy medications associated with an interquartile augmentation in pollen distributions increased significantly for Poaceae, Betula, Carpinus, Fraxinus and Quercus. Poaceae affected the widest age group and led to the highest increase of risk which reached 1.13 (95% CI [1.11-1.14]) among the 19- to 39-year-old men. Betula showed the second most consistent relationship across age groups. Clear identification of the provoking agents may improve disease management by customizing prevention programmes. This work also opens several research perspectives related to impact of climate modification or subpopulation sensitivity.