ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Decision making in refractory colorectal cancer (rCRC) is challenging, with limited data available to predict patient outcome. We conducted a study to assess the pace of cancer progression as a potential prognostic and decision tool. METHODS: CORIOLAN was a prospective, single-center, single-arm trial recruiting refractory CRC patients with an ECOG performance status of ≤1 and an estimated life expectancy of ≥12 weeks. 18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) scan and blood sample collection were carried out at baseline and after 2 weeks with no cancer treatment given between these timepoints. The primary objective was to evaluate the association between pace of cancer progression as defined by changes of the whole-body metabolically active tumor volume (WB-MATV) and overall survival (OS). Exploratory objectives included evaluation of the prognostic value of circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA), circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). RESULTS: 47 eligible patients who had received a median number of 5 (range 2-8) prior treatments were enrolled. At the time of analysis, 45 deaths had occurred, with 26% of patients dying within 12 weeks. The median OS was 6.3 months (range 0.4-14.3). The median relative delta between WB-MATV at baseline and 2 weeks was +21%. Changes of WB-MATV, however, failed to predict OS (hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, p = 0.383). Similarly, no association was observed between changes of any of the circulating biomarkers investigated and prognosis. By contrast, high WB-MATV (4.2 versus 9.4 months; HR 3.1, p = 0.003), high CEA (4.4 versus 7.0 months; HR 1.9, p = 0.053), high cfDNA (4.7 versus 7.0 months; HR 2.2, p = 0.015) and high CTC count (3.3 versus 7.5 months; HR 6.5, p < 0.001) at baseline were associated with worse OS. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, approximately 1 out of 4 refractory CRC patients who were judged to have a life expectancy >12 weeks actually died within 12 weeks. Baseline assessment of WB-MATV, cfDNA, CTCs and CEA, but not early change evaluation of the same, may help to refine patient prognostication and guide management decisions.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) may present various behaviours that define different courses of tumor evolution. There is presently no available tool designed to assess tumor aggressiveness, despite the fact that this is considered to have a major impact on patient outcome. METHODS/DESIGN: CORIOLAN is a single-arm prospective interventional non-therapeutic study aiming mainly to assess the natural tumor metabolic progression index (TMPI) measured by serial FDG PET-CT without any intercurrent antitumor therapy as a prognostic factor for overall survival (OS) in patients with mCRC.Secondary objectives of the study aim to test the TMPI as a prognostic marker for progression-free survival (PFS), to assess the prognostic value of baseline tumor FDG uptake on PFS and OS, to compare TMPI to classical clinico-biological assessment of prognosis, and to test the prognostic value on OS and PFS of MRI-based apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and variation of vADC using voxel-based diffusion maps.Additionally, this study intends to identify genomic and epigenetic factors that correlate with progression of tumors and the OS of patients with mCRC. Consequently, this analysis will provide information about the signaling pathways that determine the natural and therapy-free course of the disease. Finally, it would be of great interest to investigate whether in a population of patients with mCRC, for which at present no known effective therapy is available, tumor aggressiveness is related to elevated levels of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and to patient outcome. DISCUSSION: Tumor aggressiveness is one of the major determinants of patient outcome in advanced disease. Despite its importance, supported by findings reported in the literature of extreme outcomes for patients with mCRC treated with chemotherapy, no objective tool allows clinicians to base treatment decisions on this factor. The CORIOLAN study will characterize TMPI using FDG-PET-based metabolic imaging of patients with chemorefractory mCRC during a period of time without treatment. Results will be correlated to other assessment tools like DW-MRI, CTCs and circulating DNA, with the aim to provide usable tools in daily practice and in clinical studies in the future. ClinicalTrials.gov Number: NCT01591590.
