The Economic Burden of Elevated Blood Glucose Levels in 2017: Diagnosed and Undiagnosed Diabetes, Gestational Diabetes Mellitus, and Prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to update national estimates of the economic burden of undiagnosed diabetes, prediabetes, and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in the United States for year 2017 and provide state-level estimates. Combined with published estimates for diagnosed diabetes, these updated statistics provide a detailed picture of the economic costs associated with elevated blood glucose levels. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study estimated medical expenditures exceeding levels occurring in the absence of diabetes or prediabetes and the indirect economic burden associated with reduced labor force participation and productivity. Data sources analyzed included Optum medical claims for ∼5.8 million commercially insured patients continuously enrolled from 2013 to 2015, Medicare Standard Analytical Files containing medical claims for ∼2.8 million Medicare patients in 2014, and the 2014 Nationwide Inpatient Sample containing ∼7.1 million discharge records. Other data sources were the U.S. Census Bureau, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. RESULTS: The economic burden associated with diagnosed diabetes (all ages), undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes (adults), and GDM (mothers and newborns) reached nearly $404 billion in 2017, consisting of $327.2 billion for diagnosed diabetes, $31.7 billion for undiagnosed diabetes, $43.4 billion for prediabetes, and nearly $1.6 billion for GDM. Combined, this amounted to an economic burden of $1,240 for each American in 2017. Annual burden per case averaged $13,240 for diagnosed diabetes, $5,800 for GDM, $4,250 for undiagnosed diabetes, and $500 for prediabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Updated statistics underscore the importance of reducing the burden of prediabetes and diabetes through better detection, prevention, and treatment.

Future Health and Economic Impact of Comprehensive Tobacco Control in DoD: A Microsimulation Approach.

Background: Tobacco use is a major concern to the Military Health System of the Department of Defense (DoD). The 2011 DoD Health Related Behavior Survey reported that 24.5% of active duty personnel are current smokers, which is higher than the national estimate of 20.6% for the civilian population. Overall, it is estimated that tobacco use costs the DoD $1.6 billion a year through related medical care, increased hospitalization, and lost days of work, among others. Methods: This study evaluated future health outcomes of Tricare Prime beneficiaries aged 18-64 yr (N = 3.2 million, including active duty and retired military members and their dependents) and the potential economic impact of initiatives that DoD may take to further its effort to transform the military into a tobacco-free environment. Our analysis simulated the future smoking status, risk of developing 25 smoking-related diseases, and associated medical costs for each individual using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo microsimulation model. Data sources included Tricare administrative data, national data such as Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mortality data and National Cancer Institute's cancer registry data, as well as relative risks of diseases obtained from a literature review. Findings: We found that the prevalence of active smoking among the Tricare Prime population will decrease from about 24% in 2015 to 18% in 2020 under a status quo scenario. However, if a comprehensive tobacco control initiative that includes a 5% price increase, a tighter clean air policy, and an intensified media campaign were to be implemented between 2016 and 2020, the prevalence of smoking could further decrease to 16%. The near 2 percentage points reduction in smoking prevalence represents an additional 81,240 quitters and translates to a total lifetime medical cost savings (in 2016 present value) of $968 million, with 39% ($382 million) attributable to Tricare savings. Discussion: A comprehensive tobacco control policy within the DoD could significantly decrease the prevalence and lifetime medical cost of tobacco use. If the smoking prevalence among Prime beneficiaries could reach the Healthy People 2020 goal of 12%, through additional measures, the lifetime savings could mount to $2.08 billion. To achieve future savings, DoD needs to pay close attention to program design and implementation issues of any additional tobacco control initiatives.

Scope of Practice Laws and Anesthesia Complications: No Measurable Impact of Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetist Expanded Scope of Practice on Anesthesia-related Complications.

BACKGROUND: Scope of practice (SOP) laws governing Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs) vary by state and drive CRNA practice and reimbursement. OBJECTIVE: To test whether the odds of an anesthesia complication vary by SOP and delivery model (CRNA only, anesthesiologist only, or mixed anesthesiologist and CRNAs team). METHODS: Anesthesia claims and related complications were identified in a large commercial payor database, including inpatient and ambulatory settings. Logit regression models were estimated by setting to determine the impact of SOP and delivery model on the odds of an anesthesia-related complication, while controlling for patient characteristics, patient comorbidities, procedure and procedure complexity, and local area economic factors. RESULTS: Overall, 8 in every 10,000 anesthesia-related procedures had a complication. However, complications were 4 times more likely in the inpatient setting (20 per 10,000) than the outpatient setting (4 per 10,000). In both settings, the odds of a complication were found to differ significantly with patient characteristics, patient comorbidities, and the procedures being administered. The odds of an anesthesia-elated complication are particularly high for procedures related to childbirth. However, complication odds were not found to differ by SOP or delivery model. CONCLUSIONS: Our research results suggest that there is strong evidence of differences in the likelihood of anesthesia complications by patient characteristics, patient comorbidities, and the procedures being administered, but virtually no evidence that the odds of a complication differ by SOP or delivery model.

The economic burden of elevated blood glucose levels in 2012: diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, gestational diabetes mellitus, and prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To update estimates of the economic burden of undiagnosed diabetes, prediabetes, and gestational diabetes mellitus in 2012 in the U.S. and to present state-level estimates. Combined with published estimates for diagnosed diabetes, these statistics provide a detailed picture of the economic costs associated with elevated glucose levels. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study estimated health care use and medical expenditures in excess of expected levels occurring in the absence of diabetes or prediabetes. Data sources that were analyzed include Optum medical claims for ∼4.9 million commercially insured patients who were continuously enrolled from 2010 to 2012, Medicare Standard Analytical Files containing medical claims for ∼2.6 million Medicare patients in 2011, and the 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample containing ∼7.8 million hospital discharge records. The indirect economic burden includes reduced labor force participation, missed workdays, and reduced productivity. State-level estimates reflect geographic variation in prevalence, risk factors, and prices. RESULTS: The economic burden associated with diagnosed diabetes (all ages) and undiagnosed diabetes, gestational diabetes, and prediabetes (adults) exceeded $322 billion in 2012, consisting of $244 billion in excess medical costs and $78 billion in reduced productivity. Combined, this amounts to an economic burden exceeding $1,000 for each American in 2012. This national estimate is 48% higher than the $218 billion estimate for 2007. The burden per case averaged $10,970 for diagnosed diabetes, $5,800 for gestational diabetes, $4,030 for undiagnosed diabetes, and $510 for prediabetes. CONCLUSIONS: These statistics underscore the importance of finding ways to reduce the burden of prediabetes and diabetes through prevention and treatment.

Projected supply of and demand for oncologists and radiation oncologists through 2025: an aging, better-insured population will result in shortage.

PURPOSE: The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) published a study in 2007 that anticipated a shortage of oncologists by 2020. This study aims to update and better assess the market for chemotherapy and radiation therapy and the impact of health reform on capacity of and demand for oncologists and radiation oncologists. METHODS: The supply of oncologists and radiation oncologists, by age, sex, and specialty, was projected through 2025 with an input-output model. The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, commercial claims, and Medicare claims were analyzed to determine patterns of use by patient characteristics such as age, sex, health insurance coverage, cancer site, physician specialty, and service type. Patterns of use were then applied to the projected prevalence of cancer, using data from the SEER Program of the National Cancer Institute. RESULTS: Beginning in 2012, 16,347 oncologists and radiation oncologists were active and supplying 15,190 full-time equivalents (FTEs) of patient care. Without consideration of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), overall demand for oncologist services is projected to grow 40% (21,255 FTEs), whereas supply may grow only 25% (18,997 FTEs), generating a shortage of 2,258 FTEs in 2025. When fully implemented, the ACA could increase the demand for oncologists and radiation oncologists by 500,000 visits per year, increasing the shortage to 2,393 FTEs in 2025. CONCLUSION: Anticipated shortages are largely consistent with the projections of the ASCO 2007 workforce study but somewhat more delayed. The ACA may modestly exacerbate the shortage. Unless oncologist productivity can be enhanced, the anticipated shortage will strain the ability to provide quality cancer care.

Cost of illness for neuromuscular diseases in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: We conducted a comprehensive study of the costs associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). and myotonic dystrophy (DM) in the U.S. METHODS: We determined the total impact on the U.S. economy, including direct medical costs, nonmedical costs, and loss of income. Medical costs were calculated using a commercial insurance database and Medicare claims data. Nonmedical and indirect costs were determined through a survey of families registered with the Muscular Dystrophy Association. RESULTS: Medical costs were driven by outpatient care. Nonmedical costs were driven by the necessity to move or adapt housing for the patient and paid caregiving. Loss of income correlated significantly with the amount of care needed by the patient. CONCLUSIONS: We calculated the annual per-patient costs to be $63,693 for ALS, $50,952 for DMD, and $32,236 for DM. Population-wide national costs were $1,023 million (ALS), $787 million (DMD), and $448 million (DM).

Cost effectiveness analysis of anesthesia providers.

Anesthesiologists and certified registered nurse anesthetists provide high-quality, efficacious anesthesia care to the U.S. population. This research and analyses indicate that CRNAs are less costly to train than anesthesiologists and have the potential for providing anesthesia care efficiently. Anesthesiologists and CRNAs can perform the same set of anesthesia services, including relatively rare and difficult procedures such as open heart surgeries and organ transplantations, pediatric procedures, and others. CRNAs are generally salaried, their compensation lags behind anesthesiologists, and they generally receive no overtime pay. As the demand for health care continues to grow, increasing the number of CRNAs, and permitting them to practice in the most efficient delivery models, will be a key to containing costs while maintaining quality care.

Disease management 360 degrees: a scorecard approach to evaluating TRICARE's programs for asthma, congestive heart failure, and diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of TRICARE's asthma, congestive heart failure, and diabetes disease management programs using a scorecard approach. EVALUATION MEASURES: Patient healthcare utilization, financial, clinical, and humanistic outcomes. Absolute measures were translated into effect size and incorporated into a scorecard. RESEARCH DESIGN: Actual outcomes for program participants were compared with outcomes predicted in the absence of disease management. The predictive equations were established from regression models based on historical control groups (n = 39,217). Z scores were calculated for the humanistic measures obtained through a mailed survey. DATA COLLECTION METHODS: Administrative records containing medical claims, patient demographics and characteristics, and program participation status were linked using an encrypted patient identifier (n = 57,489). The study time frame is 1 year prior to program inception through 2 years afterward (October 2005-September 2008). A historical control group was identified with the baseline year starting October 2003 and a 1-year follow-up period starting October 2004. A survey was administered to a subset of participants 6 months after baseline assessment (39% response rate). RESULTS: Within the observation window--24 months for asthma and congestive heart failure, and 15 months for the diabetes program--we observed modest reductions in hospital days and healthcare cost for all 3 programs and reductions in emergency visits for 2 programs. Most clinical outcomes moved in the direction anticipated. CONCLUSIONS: The scorecard provided a useful tool to track performance of 3 regional contractors for each of 3 diseases and over time.

The economic value of professional nursing.

BACKGROUND: Improved understanding of the economic value of registered nurse services can help inform staffing decisions and policies. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the economic value of professional nursing. METHODS: We synthesize findings from the literature on the relationship between registered nurse staffing levels and nursing-sensitive patient outcomes in acute care hospitals. Using hospital discharge data to estimate incidence and cost of these patient outcomes together with productivity measures, we estimate the economic implications of changes in registered nurse staffing levels. SUBJECTS: Medical and surgical patients in nonfederal acute care hospitals. Data come from a literature review, and hospital discharge data from the 2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. MEASURES: Patient nosocomial complications, healthcare expenditures, and national productivity. RESULTS: As nurse staffing levels increase, patient risk of nosocomial complications and hospital length of stay decrease, resulting in medical cost savings, improved national productivity, and lives saved. CONCLUSIONS: Only a portion of the services that professional nurses provide can be quantified in pecuniary terms, but the partial estimates of economic value presented illustrate the economic value to society of improved quality of care achieved through higher staffing levels.

Cost associated with being overweight and with obesity, high alcohol consumption, and tobacco use within the military health system's TRICARE prime-enrolled population.

PURPOSE: To estimate medical and indirect costs to the Department of Defense (DoD) that are associated with tobacco use, being overweight or obese, and high alcohol consumption. DESIGN: Retrospective, quantitative research. SETTING: Healthcare provided in military treatment facilities and by providers participating in the military health system. SUBJECTS: The 4.3 million beneficiaries under age 65 years who were enrolled in the military TRICARE Prime health plan option in 2006. MEASURES: The findings come from a cost-of-disease model developed by combining information from DoD and civilian health surveys and studies; DoD healthcare encounter data for 4.1 million beneficiaries; and epidemiology literature on the increased risk of comorbidities from unhealthy behaviors. RESULTS: DoD spends an estimated $2.1 billion per year for medical care associated with tobacco use ($564 million), excess weight and obesity ($1.1 billion), and high alcohol consumption ($425 million). DoD incurs nonmedical costs related to tobacco use, excess weight and obesity, and high alcohol consumption in excess of $965 million per year. CONCLUSION: Unhealthy lifestyles are significant contributors to the cost of providing healthcare services to the nation's military personnel, military retirees, and their dependents. The continued rise in healthcare costs could impact other DoD programs and could potentially affect areas related to military capability and readiness. In 2006, DoD initiated Healthy Choices for Life initiatives to address the high cost of unhealthy lifestyles and behaviors, and the DoD continues to monitor lifestyle trends through the DoD Lifestyle Assessment Program.

A model to determine workforce needs for endocrinologists in the United States until 2020.

The objective of this study was to define the workforce needs for the specialty of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism in the United States between 1999 and 2020. An interactive model of factors likely to influence the balance between the supply and demand of endocrinologists during the next 20 years was constructed. The model used data from a wide range of sources and was developed under the guidance of a panel of experts derived from sponsoring organizations of endocrinologists. We determined current and projected numbers and demographics of endocrinologists in the U.S. workforce and the anticipated balance between supply and demand from 1999 to 2020. There were 3,623 adult endocrinologists in the workforce in 1999, of whom 2,389 (66%) were in office-based practice. Their median age was 49 years. Both total office visits and services performed by endocrinologists (particularly for diabetes) increased substantially during the 1990s. Waiting time for an initial appointment is presently longer for endocrinologists than for other physicians. Compared with a balanced, largely closed-staff health maintenance organization, the current national supply of endocrinologists is estimated to be 12% lower than demand. The number of endocrinologists entering the market has continuously fallen over the previous 5 years, from 200 in 1995 to 171 in 1999. Even if this downward trend were abruptly stopped, the model predicts that demand will exceed supply from now until 2020. While this gap narrows from 2000 to 2008 due to projected growth of managed care, it widens thereafter due to the aging of both the population and the endocrine workforce. Inclusion of other factors such as projected real income growth and increased prevalence of age-related endocrine disorders (e.g., diabetes and osteoporosis) further accentuates the deficit. If the number of endocrinologists entering the workforce remains at 1999 levels, demand will continue to exceed supply from now through 2020 for adult endocrinologists, and the gap will widen progressively from 2010 onward. The present analysis indicates that the number of endocrinologists entering the workforce will not be sufficient to meet future demand. These data suggest that steps should be taken to stop the ongoing decline in the number of endocrinologists in training and consideration should be given to actions designed to increase the number of endocrinologists in practice in the years ahead.

A model to determine workforce needs for endocrinologists in the United States until 2020.

The objective of this study was to define the workforce needs for the specialty of endocrinology, diabetes, and metabolism in the United States between 1999 and 2020. An interactive model of factors likely to influence the balance between the supply and demand of endocrinologists during the next 20 yr was constructed. The model used data from a wide range of sources and was developed under the guidance of a panel of experts derived from sponsoring organizations of endocrinologists. We determined current and projected numbers and demographics of endocrinologists in the United States workforce and the anticipated balance between supply and demand from 1999 to 2020. There were 3,623 adult endocrinologists in the workforce in 1999, of which 2,389 (66%) were in office-based practice. Their median age was 49 yr. Both total office visits and services performed by endocrinologists (particularly for diabetes) increased substantially during the 1990s. Waiting time for an initial appointment is presently longer for endocrinologists than for other physicians. Compared with a balanced, largely closed-staff health maintenance organization, the current national supply of endocrinologists is estimated to be 12% lower than demand. The number of endocrinologists entering the market has continuously fallen over the previous 5 yr, from 200 in 1995 to 171 in 1999. Even if this downward trend were abruptly stopped, the model predicts that demand will exceed supply from now until 2020. Whereas this gap narrows from 2000 to 2008 due to projected growth of managed care, it widens thereafter due to the aging of both the population and the endocrine workforce. Inclusion of other factors such as projected real income growth and increased prevalence of age-related endocrine disorders (e.g. diabetes and osteoporosis) further accentuates the deficit. If the number of endocrinologists entering the workforce remains at 1999 levels, demand will continue to exceed supply from now through 2020 for adult endocrinologists, and the gap will widen progressively from 2010 onward. The present analysis indicates that the number of endocrinologists entering the workforce will not be sufficient to meet future demand. These data suggest that steps should be taken to stop the ongoing decline in the number of endocrinologists in training and consideration should be given to actions designed to increase the number of endocrinologists in practice in the years ahead.

A model to determine workforce needs for endocrinologists in the United States until 2020.

The objective of this study was to define the workforce needs for the specialty of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism in the United States between 1999 and 2020. An interactive model of factors likely to influence the balance between the supply and demand of endocrinologists during the next 20 years was constructed. The model used data from a wide range of sources and was developed under the guidance of a panel of experts derived from sponsoring organizations of endocrinologists. We determined current and projected numbers and demographics of endocrinologists in the U.S. workforce and the anticipated balance between supply and demand from 1999 to 2020. There were 3,623 adult endocrinologists in the workforce in 1999, of which 2,389 (66%) were in office-based practice. Their median age was 49 years. Both total office visits and services performed by endocrinologists (particularly for diabetes) increased substantially during the 1990s. Waiting time for an initial appointment is presently longer for endocrinologists than for other physicians. Compared with a balanced, largely closed-staff health maintenance organization, the current national supply of endocrinologists is estimated to be 12% lower than demand. The number of endocrinologists entering the market has continuously fallen over the previous 5 years, from 200 in 1995 to 171 in 1999. Even if this downward trend were abruptly stopped, the model predicts that demand will exceed supply from now until 2020. While this gap narrows from 2000 to 2008 due to projected growth of managed care, it widens thereafter due to the aging of both the population and the endocrine workforce. Inclusion of other factors such as projected real income growth and increased prevalence of age-related endocrine disorders (e.g., diabetes and osteoporosis) further accentuates the deficit. If the number of endocrinologists entering the workforce remains at 1999 levels, demand will continue to exceed supply from now through 2020 for adult endocrinologists, and the gap will widen progressively from 2010 onward. The present analysis indicates that the number of endocrinologists entering the workforce will not be sufficient to meet future demand. These data suggest that steps should be taken to stop the ongoing decline in the number of endocrinologists in training and consideration should be given to actions designed to increase the number of endocrinologists in practice in the years ahead.