Mapping the planet's critical areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people.

Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies and tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence of ecosystems providing globally high levels of nature's contributions to people, biodiversity, and areas with high development potential across several sectors. We find that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of the current levels of ten of nature's contributions to people and meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial vertebrate species. This finding supports recent commitments by national governments under the Global Biodiversity Framework to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters, and proposals to conserve half of the Earth. More than one-third of areas required for conserving nature's contributions to people and species are also highly suitable for agriculture, renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, or urban expansion. This indicates potential conflicts among conservation, climate and development goals.

Mapping the planet's critical natural assets.

Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems and processes that underpin human wellbeing is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we define critical natural assets as the natural and semi-natural ecosystems that provide 90% of the total current magnitude of 14 types of nature's contributions to people (NCP), and we map the global locations of these critical natural assets at 2 km resolution. Critical natural assets for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 of the 14 NCP) account for 30% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters, while 44% of land area is required to also maintain two global-scale NCP (carbon storage and moisture recycling). These areas overlap substantially with cultural diversity (areas containing 96% of global languages) and biodiversity (covering area requirements for 73% of birds and 66% of mammals). At least 87% of the world's population live in the areas benefitting from critical natural assets for local-scale NCP, while only 16% live on the lands containing these assets. Many of the NCP mapped here are left out of international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet this analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets and the NCP they provide could simultaneously advance development, climate and conservation goals.

A metric for spatially explicit contributions to science-based species targets.

The Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will probably include a goal to stabilize and restore the status of species. Its delivery would be facilitated by making the actions required to halt and reverse species loss spatially explicit. Here, we develop a species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric that is scalable across species, threats and geographies. STAR quantifies the contributions that abating threats and restoring habitats in specific places offer towards reducing extinction risk. While every nation can contribute towards halting biodiversity loss, Indonesia, Colombia, Mexico, Madagascar and Brazil combined have stewardship over 31% of total STAR values for terrestrial amphibians, birds and mammals. Among actions, sustainable crop production and forestry dominate, contributing 41% of total STAR values for these taxonomic groups. Key Biodiversity Areas cover 9% of the terrestrial surface but capture 47% of STAR values. STAR could support governmental and non-state actors in quantifying their contributions to meeting science-based species targets within the framework.

Comparative mapping and validation of multiple disease resistance QTL for simultaneously controlling common and dwarf bunt in bread wheat.

KEY MESSAGE: Resistance QTL on chromosomes 1AL and 7AL are effective against common and dwarf bunt, QTL on 1BS affects common bunt and QTL on 7DS affects dwarf bunt in bread wheat. Common bunt, caused by Tilletia caries and T. laevis, and dwarf bunt, caused by T. controversa, negatively affect grain yield and quality of wheat and are particularly destructive in low-input and organic production systems. Two recombinant inbred line (RIL) populations derived by crossing the highly and durably resistant cultivars 'Blizzard' and 'Bonneville' to the susceptible cultivar 'Rainer' were evaluated for their resistance to common and dwarf bunt in artificially inoculated field and greenhouse trials over two growing seasons and genotyped with a 15 K SNP array. Bunt resistance QTL were mapped to chromosomes 1AL, 1BS, 7AL and 7DS. Common bunt resistance was regulated by the major QTL QBt.ifa-1BS and QBt.ifa-1AL together with the moderate effect QTL QBt.ifa-7AL. Dwarf bunt resistance was on the other hand regulated by the QTL QBt.ifa-1AL, QBt.ifa-7AL and QBt.ifa-7DS. Common bunt resistance QTL exhibited pronounced epistatic effects, while epistatic effects were of smaller magnitude for dwarf bunt QTL. Kompetitive Allele-Specific PCR (KASP) markers were developed from SNPs associated with bunt resistance QTL and successfully used for QTL validation in an independent set of RILs. These KASP markers have the potential to support targeted introgression of QTL into elite wheat germplasm and accelerate breeding for enhanced bunt resistance. Durable protection against both common and dwarf bunt can be achieved by combining multiple resistance genes in the same genetic background.

Global hotspots for coastal ecosystem-based adaptation.

Helping the world's coastal communities adapt to climate change impacts requires evaluating the vulnerability of coastal communities and assessing adaptation options. This includes understanding the potential for 'natural' infrastructure (ecosystems and the biodiversity that underpins them) to reduce communities' vulnerability, alongside more traditional 'hard' infrastructure approaches. Here we present a spatially explicit global evaluation of the vulnerability of coastal-dwelling human populations to key climate change exposures and explore the potential for coastal ecosystems to help people adapt to climate change (ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA)). We find that mangroves and coral reefs are particularly well situated to help people cope with current weather extremes, a function that will only increase in importance as people adapt to climate change now and in coming decades. We find that around 30.9 million people living within 2km of the coast are highly vulnerable to tropical storms and sea-level rise (SLR). Mangroves and coral reefs overlap these threats to at least 5.3 and 3.4 million people, respectively, with substantial potential to dissipate storm surges and improve resilience against SLR effects. Significant co-benefits from mangroves also accrue, with 896 million metric tons of carbon stored in their soils and above- and below-ground biomass. Our framework offers a tool for prioritizing 'hotspots' of coastal EbA potential for further, national and local analyses to quantify risk reduction and, thereby, guide investment in coastal ecosystems to help people adapt to climate change. In doing so, it underscores the global role that conserving and restoring ecosystems can play in protecting human lives and livelihoods, as well as biodiversity, in the face of climate change.

Global reforestation and biodiversity conservation.

The loss of forest is a leading cause of species extinction, and reforestation is 1 of 2 established interventions for reversing this loss. However, the role of reforestation for biodiversity conservation remains debated, and lacking is an assessment of the potential contribution that reforestation could make to biodiversity conservation globally. We conducted a spatial analysis of overlap between 1,550 forest-obligate threatened species' ranges and land that could be reforested after accounting for socioeconomic and ecological constraints. Reforestation on at least 43% (∼369 million ha) of reforestable area was predicted to potentially benefit threatened vertebrates. This is approximately 15% of the total area where threatened vertebrates occur. The greatest opportunities for conserving threatened vertebrate species are in the tropics, particularly Brazil and Indonesia. Although reforestation is not a substitute for forest conservation, and most of the area containing threatened vertebrates remains forested, our results highlight the need for global conservation strategies to recognize the potentially significant contribution that reforestation could make to biodiversity conservation. If implemented, reforestation of ∼369 million ha would also contribute substantially to climate-change mitigation, offering a way to achieve multiple sustainability commitments at once. Countries must now work to overcome key barriers (e.g., unclear revenue streams, high transaction costs) to investment in reforestation.

Reforestación Mundial y Conservación de la Biodiversidad Resumen La pérdida de los bosques es una de las causas principales de la extinción de especies y la reforestación es una de las dos intervenciones establecidas para revertir esta pérdida. Sin embargo, el papel de la reforestación en la conservación de la biodiversidad todavía se debate, además de que hay una falta de evaluación de la contribución potencial que podría dar la reforestación a la conservación mundial de la biodiversidad. Realizamos un análisis espacial del traslape de la distribución de 1,550 especies obligadas de bosque que se encuentran amenazadas y el suelo que podría utilizarse para reforestar después de considerar las restricciones socioeconómicas y ecológicas. El análisis predijo que la reforestación en al menos el 43% (∼ 369 millones de ha) del área que se puede reforestar beneficiará potencialmente a los vertebrados amenazados. Esto es aproximadamente el 15% del área total en donde están presentes los vertebrados amenazados. Las oportunidades más grandes para conservar a las especies amenazadas de vertebrados se encuentran en los trópicos, particularmente en Brasil y en Indonesia. Aunque la reforestación no es un sustituto para la conservación de los bosques, y aunque la mayoría del área que contiene vertebrados amenazados todavía tiene flora original, nuestros resultados resaltan la necesidad de tener estrategias mundiales de conservación para reconocer la contribución potencialmente significativa que podría dar la reforestación a la conservación de la biodiversidad. Si se implementa, la reforestación de ∼369 millones de ha también contribuiría significativamente a la mitigación del cambio climático, ofreciendo así una manera de cumplir varios compromisos de sustentabilidad a la vez. Los países ahora deben trabajar para sobreponerse a las barreras importantes (p. ej.: flujos inciertos de ingresos, costos elevados de las transacciones) que enfrentan las inversiones para la reforestación.

Genetic characterization and genome-wide association mapping for dwarf bunt resistance in bread wheat accessions from the USDA National Small Grains Collection.

KEY MESSAGE: Dwarf bunt-resistant bread wheat accessions and SNP markers associated with DB resistance identified in this study are valuable resources for characterization and deployment of DB resistance in bread wheat. Dwarf bunt (DB), caused by Tilletia controversa J.G. Kühn, can significantly reduce grain yield and quality on autumn-sown wheat in regions with prolonged snow cover. DB can be managed with the use of resistant cultivars. The objectives of the present study were to characterize DB resistance in a large set of bread wheat accessions from the National Small Grains Collection and use a genome-wide association study approach to identify genetic loci associated with DB resistance. A total of 292 accessions were selected using historical DB resistance data recorded across many trials and years in the Germplasm Resources Information Network (GRIN) and re-tested for DB resistance in replicated field nurseries in Logan, UT, in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Ninety-eight accessions were resistant with DB normalized incidence ≤ 10%, and twenty-eight of these were highly resistant with DB normalized incidence ≤ 1% in both GRIN and the field nurseries. Based on the presence of marker haplotypes of the four published dwarf bunt QTL on 6DS, 6DL, 7AL, and 7DS, highly resistant accessions identified in this study may provide novel resistance and should be further evaluated. This study validated one previously identified QTL on 6DS and identified an additional locus on 6DS. These loci explained 9-15% of the observed phenotypic variation. The resistant accessions and molecular markers identified in the present study may provide valuable resources for characterization and deployment of DB resistance in bread wheat.

Identification and assessment of two major QTLs for dwarf bunt resistance in winter wheat line 'IDO835'.

KEY MESSAGE: Two major dwarf bunt resistance QTLs were mapped to a known Bt9 locus and a novel locus. The associated KASP markers were developed and validated in other two populations. Dwarf bunt (DB), caused by Tilletia controversa J.G. Kühn, and common bunt (CB), caused by T. caries and T. foetida, are two destructive diseases that reduce grain yield and quality in wheat. Breeding for bunt-resistant cultivars is important in many wheat production areas, especially where organic wheat is grown. However, few molecular markers have been used in selection of bunt resistance. In the present study, a doubled haploid (DH) population derived from the bunt-resistant line 'IDO835' and the susceptible cultivar 'Moreland' was evaluated for DB resistance in a field nursery in Logan, Utah, for four growing seasons. The population was genotyped with the Illumina 90 K SNP iSelect marker platform. Two major QTLs were consistently identified on chromosomes 6DL (Q.DB.ui-6DL) and 7AL (Q.DB.ui-7AL), explaining up to 53% and 38% of the phenotypic variation, respectively. Comparative study suggested that Q.DB.ui-6DL was located in the same region as the CB resistance gene Bt9, and Q.DB.ui-7AL was located at a novel locus for bunt resistance. Based on Chinese Spring reference sequence and annotations (IWGSC RefSeq v1.1), both resistance QTLs were mapped to disease resistance gene-rich (NBS-LRR and kinase genes) regions. To validate the identified QTL and design user-friendly markers for MAS, five SNPs were converted to Kompetitive Allele-Specific PCR (KASP) markers and used to genotype two validation panels, including a DH population and a diverse winter wheat population from USDA-ARS National Small Grain Collection, as well as a Bt gene investigation panel, consisting of 15 bunt differential lines and 11 resistant lines.

Modeling of crop wild relative species identifies areas globally for in situ conservation.

The impact of climate change is causing challenges for the agricultural production and food systems. More nutritious and climate resilient crop varieties are required, but lack of available and accessible trait diversity is limiting crop improvement. Crop wild relatives (CWR) are the wild cousins of cultivated crops and a vast resource of genetic diversity for breeding new, higher yielding, climate change tolerant crop varieties, but they are under-conserved (particularly in situ), largely unavailable and therefore underutilized. Here we apply species distribution modelling, climate change projections and geographic analyses to 1261 CWR species from 167 major crop genepools to explore key geographical areas for CWR in situ conservation worldwide. We identify 150 sites where 65.7% of the CWR species identified can be conserved for future use.

Evaluating natural infrastructure for flood management within the watersheds of selected global cities.

Cities are dependent on their upstream watersheds for storage and gradual release of water into river systems. These watersheds act as important flood mitigation infrastructure, providing an essential ecosystem service. In this paper we use metrics from the WaterWorld model to examine the flood management-relevant natural infrastructure of the upstream watersheds of selected global cities. These metrics enable the characterisation of different types, magnitudes and geographical distributions of potential natural flood storage. The storages are categorised as either green (forest canopy, wetland and soil) or blue (water body and floodplain) storages and the proportion of green to blue indicates how different city upstream basin contexts provide different types and levels of storage which may buffer flood risk. We apply the WaterWorld method for examining flood risk as the ratio of accumulated modelled annual runoff volume to accumulated available green and blue water storage capacity. The aim of these metrics is to highlight areas where there is more runoff than storage capacity and thus where the maintenance or restoration of further natural infrastructure (such as canopy cover, wetlands and soil) could aid in storing more water and thus better alleviate flood risks. Such information is needed by urban planners, city authorities and governments to help prepare cities for climate change impacts.

Rapid Assessment of Ecosystem Service Co-Benefits of Biodiversity Priority Areas in Madagascar.

The importance of ecosystems for supporting human well-being is increasingly recognized by both the conservation and development sectors. Our ability to conserve ecosystems that people rely on is often limited by a lack of spatially explicit data on the location and distribution of ecosystem services (ES), the benefits provided by nature to people. Thus there is a need to map ES to guide conservation investments, to ensure these co-benefits are maintained. To target conservation investments most effectively, ES assessments must be rigorous enough to support conservation planning, rapid enough to respond to decision-making timelines, and often must rely on existing data. We developed a framework for rapid spatial assessment of ES that relies on expert and stakeholder consultation, available data, and spatial analyses in order to rapidly identify sites providing multiple benefits. We applied the framework in Madagascar, a country with globally significant biodiversity and a high level of human dependence on ecosystems. Our objective was to identify the ES co-benefits of biodiversity priority areas in order to guide the investment strategy of a global conservation fund. We assessed key provisioning (fisheries, hunting and non-timber forest products, and water for domestic use, agriculture, and hydropower), regulating (climate mitigation, flood risk reduction and coastal protection), and cultural (nature tourism) ES. We also conducted multi-criteria analyses to identify sites providing multiple benefits. While our approach has limitations, including the reliance on proximity-based indicators for several ES, the results were useful for targeting conservation investments by the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF). Because our approach relies on available data, standardized methods for linking ES provision to ES use, and expert validation, it has the potential to quickly guide conservation planning and investment decisions in other data-poor regions.

A novel QTL associated with dwarf bunt resistance in Idaho 444 winter wheat.

KEY MESSAGE: A novel QTL, Q.DB.ui-7DS, and the PCR-based markers identified in the current study will accelerate variety development for resistance to dwarf and common bunt of wheat. Dwarf bunt [Tilletia controversa J.G. Kühn [as 'contraversa'], in Rabenhorst, Hedwigia 13: 188 (1874)] is a destructive disease of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) that reduces grain yield and quality. A number of distinct genes conferring resistance to dwarf bunt have been used by breeding programs for nearly 100 years. However, few markers were identified that can be used in selection of dwarf bunt resistance. A recombinant inbred line (RIL) population derived from the bunt-resistant germplasm, Idaho 444 (IDO444), and the susceptible cultivar, Rio Blanco, was evaluated for phenotypic reaction to dwarf bunt inoculation in four trials in two locations (USU and USDA) over 3 years. The population was genotyped with the Diversity Arrays Technology (DArT) and the Illumina Infinium 9K iSelect marker platforms. A total of three QTL were detected, and resistant alleles were from IDO444. QTL Q.DB.ui-7DS on 7DS was determined based on the location of a DArT marker wPt-2565 (X116197), which was consistently detected and explained 32 to 56 % of phenotypic variation among the four trials. QTL Q.DB.ui-1A on 1A was detected in three Utah State University (USU) trials and explained 11-15 % of phenotypic variation. QTL Q.DB.ui-2B on 2B was detected in two USU and one United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) trials and explained up to 6 % of phenotypic variation. Two PCR-based markers were developed based on the sequence of wPt-2565 and validated in the RIL population and used in genotyping of dwarf bunt differential lines, known resistance sources, and resistant cultivars.

Quantitative Trait Loci Associated with the Tocochromanol (Vitamin E) Pathway in Barley.

The Genome-Wide Association Studies approach was used to detect Quantitative Trait Loci associated with tocochromanol concentrations using a panel of 1,466 barley accessions. All major tocochromanol types- α-, ß-, δ-, γ-tocopherol and tocotrienol- were assayed. We found 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with the concentration of one or more of these tocochromanol forms in barley, seven of which were within 2 cM of sequences homologous to cloned genes associated with tocochromanol production in barley and/or other plants. These associations confirmed a prior report based on bi-parental QTL mapping. This knowledge will aid future efforts to better understand the role of tocochromanols in barley, with specific reference to abiotic stress resistance. It will also be useful in developing barley varieties with higher tocochromanol concentrations, although at current recommended daily consumption amounts, barley would not be an effective sole source of vitamin E. However, it could be an important contributor in the context of whole grains in a balanced diet.

Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning.

Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty.

We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as 'extremely likely' for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many 'losers' as 'winners'. However, for no species was suitable climate 'extremely likely' to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35-69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as 'extremely likely' to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species' movement among sites, is critical to ensure effective future conservation.

Expression and functional analysis of NUCLEAR FACTOR-Y, subunit B genes in barley.

NUCLEAR FACTOR-Y, subunit B (NF-YB) comprises a multigene family in plants and has been shown to play important roles in growth, development, and response to environmental stress. In this study, five NF-YBs containing the full-length coding region were obtained from barley (Hordeum vulgare) through database sequence analysis, cloning, and sequencing. Sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis showed that HvNF-YB3 and HvNF-YB1 were clustered with NF-YB2 and NF-YB3 in Arabidopsis, suggesting these NF-YBs are evolutionary and functionally related. To test this hypothesis, HvNF-YB3 and HvNF-YB1 were overexpressed in Arabidopsis. Overexpression of HvNF-YB1 greatly promoted early flowering in Arabidopsis, supporting that HvNF-YB1may have conserved gene function in flowering time control as NF-YB2 and NF-YB3 in Arabidopsis. Overexpression of HvNF-YB3 in Arabidopsis had no effect on flowering time. An analysis of barley single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, however, revealed a significant association between an HvNF-YB3 SNP and heading date. While it is unknown whether HvNF-YB3 directly contributes to heading date regulation, the results implied that HvNF-YB3 may also have conserved function in flowering time (heading date in barley) control. Further studies are needed to directly verify these gene functions in barley. Barley NF-YBs showed different expression patterns associated with tissue types, developmental stages, and response to different stress treatments, suggesting that barley NF-YBs may be involved in other physiological processes.

Toward a management framework for networks of protected areas in the face of climate change.

Networks of sites of high importance for conservation of biological diversity are a cornerstone of current conservation strategies but are fixed in space and time. As climate change progresses, substantial shifts in species' ranges may transform the ecological community that can be supported at a given site. Thus, some species in an existing network may not be protected in the future or may be protected only if they can move to sites that in future provide suitable conditions. We developed an approach to determine appropriate climate-change adaptation strategies for individual sites within a network that was based on projections of future changes in the relative proportions of emigrants (species for which a site becomes climatically unsuitable), colonists (species for which a site becomes climatically suitable), and persistent species (species able to remain within a site despite the climatic change). Our approach also identifies key regions where additions to a network could enhance its future effectiveness. Using the sub-Saharan African Important Bird Area (IBA) network as a case study, we found that appropriate conservation strategies for individual sites varied widely across sub-Saharan Africa, and key regions where new sites could help increase network robustness varied in space and time. Although these results highlight the potential difficulties within any planning framework that seeks to address climate-change adaptation needs, they demonstrate that such planning frameworks are necessary, if current conservation strategies are to be adapted effectively, and feasible, if applied judiciously.