Local adaptation and future climate vulnerability in a wild rodent.

As climate change continues, species pushed outside their physiological tolerance limits must adapt or face extinction. When change is rapid, adaptation will largely harness ancestral variation, making the availability and characteristics of that variation of critical importance. Here, we used whole-genome sequencing and genetic-environment association analyses to identify adaptive variation and its significance in the context of future climates in a small Palearctic mammal, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus). We found that peripheral populations of bank vole in Britain are already at the extreme bounds of potential genetic adaptation and may require an influx of adaptive variation in order to respond. Analyses of adaptive loci suggest regional differences in climate variables select for variants that influence patterns of population adaptive resilience, including genes associated with antioxidant defense, and support a pattern of thermal/hypoxic cross-adaptation. Our findings indicate that understanding potential shifts in genomic composition in response to climate change may be key to predicting species' fate under future climates.

Niche differentiation in a postglacial colonizer, the bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus.

Species-level environmental niche modeling has been crucial in efforts to understand how species respond to climate variation and change. However, species often exhibit local adaptation and intraspecific niche differences that may be important to consider in predicting responses to climate. Here, we explore whether phylogeographic lineages of the bank vole originating from different glacial refugia (Carpathian, Western, Eastern, and Southern) show niche differentiation, which would suggest a role for local adaptation in biogeography of this widespread Eurasian small mammal. We first model the environmental requirements for the bank vole using species-wide occurrences (210 filtered records) and then model each lineage separately to examine niche overlap and test for niche differentiation in geographic and environmental space. We then use the models to estimate past [Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene] habitat suitability to compare with previously hypothesized glacial refugia for this species. Environmental niches are statistically significantly different from each other for all pairs of lineages in geographic and environmental space, and these differences cannot be explained by habitat availability within their respective ranges. Together with the inability of most of the lineages to correctly predict the distributions of other lineages, these results support intraspecific ecological differentiation in the bank vole. Model projections of habitat suitability during the LGM support glacial survival of the bank vole in the Mediterranean region and in central and western Europe. Niche differences between lineages and the resulting spatial segregation of habitat suitability suggest ecological differentiation has played a role in determining the present phylogeographic patterns in the bank vole. Our study illustrates that models pooling lineages within a species may obscure the potential for different responses to climate change among populations.

A dynamic history of admixture from Mediterranean and Carpathian glacial refugia drives genomic diversity in the bank vole.

Understanding the historical contributions of differing glacial refugia is key to evaluating the roles of microevolutionary forces, such as isolation, introgression, and selection in shaping genomic diversity in present-day populations. In Europe, where both Mediterranean and extra-Mediterranean (e.g., Carpathian) refugia of the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) have been identified, mtDNA indicates that extra-Mediterranean refugia were the main source of colonization across the species range, while Mediterranean peninsulas harbor isolated, endemic lineages. Here, we critically evaluate this hypothesis using previously generated genomic data (>6,000 SNPs) for over 800 voles, focusing on genomic contributions to bank voles in central Europe, a key geographic area in considering range-wide colonization. The results provide clear evidence that both extra-Mediterranean (Carpathian) and Mediterranean (Spanish, Calabrian, and Balkan) refugia contributed to the ancestry and genomic diversity of bank vole populations across Europe. Few strong barriers to dispersal and frequent admixture events in central Europe have led to a prominent mid-latitude peak in genomic diversity. Although the genomic contribution of the centrally located Carpathian refugium predominates, populations in different parts of Europe have admixed origins from Mediterranean (28%-47%) and the Carpathian (53%-72%) sources. We suggest that the admixture from Mediterranean refugia may have provisioned adaptive southern alleles to more northern populations, facilitating the end-glacial spread of the admixed populations and contributing to increased bank vole diversity in central Europe. This study adds critical details to the complex end-glacial colonization history of this well-studied organism and underscores the importance of genomic data in phylogeographic interpretation.

High genomic diversity in the bank vole at the northern apex of a range expansion: The role of multiple colonizations and end-glacial refugia.

The history of repeated northern glacial cycling and southern climatic stability has long dominated explanations for how genetic diversity is distributed within temperate species in Eurasia and North America. However, growing evidence indicates the importance of cryptic refugia for northern colonization dynamics. An important geographic region to assess this is Fennoscandia, where recolonization at the end of the last glaciation was restricted to specific routes and temporal windows. We used genomic data to analyse genetic diversity and colonization history of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) throughout Europe (>800 samples) with Fennoscandia as the northern apex. We inferred that bank voles colonized Fennoscandia multiple times by two different routes; with three separate colonizations via a southern land-bridge route deriving from a "Carpathian" glacial refugium and one via a north-eastern route from an "Eastern" glacial refugium near the Ural Mountains. Clustering of genome-wide SNPs revealed high diversity in Fennoscandia, with eight genomic clusters: three of Carpathian origin and five Eastern. Time estimates revealed that the first of the Carpathian colonizations occurred before the Younger Dryas (YD), meaning that the first colonists survived the YD in Fennoscandia. Results also indicated that introgression between bank and northern red-backed voles (Myodes rutilus) took place in Fennoscandia just after end-glacial colonization. Therefore, multiple colonizations from the same and different cryptic refugia, temporal and spatial separations and interspecific introgression have shaped bank vole genetic variability in Fennoscandia. Together, these processes drive high genetic diversity at the apex of the northern expansion in this emerging model species.