Development of an outcome indicator framework for a universal health visiting programme using routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: Universal health visiting has been a cornerstone of preventative healthcare for children in the United Kingdom (UK) for over 100 years. In 2016, Scotland introduced a new Universal Health Visiting Pathway (UHVP), involving a greater number of contacts with a particular emphasis on the first year, visits within the home setting, and rigorous developmental assessment conducted by a qualified Health Visitor. To evaluate the UHVP, an outcome indicator framework was developed using routine administrative data. This paper sets out the development of these indicators. METHODS: A logic model was produced with stakeholders to define the group of outcomes, before further refining and aligning of the measures through discussions with stakeholders and inspection of data. Power calculations were carried out and initial data described for the chosen indicators. RESULTS: Eighteen indicators were selected across eight outcome areas: parental smoking, breastfeeding, immunisations, dental health, developmental concerns, obesity, accidents and injuries, and child protection interventions. Data quality was mixed. Coverage of reviews was high; over 90% of children received key reviews. Individual item completion was more variable: 92.2% had breastfeeding data at 6-8 weeks, whilst 63.2% had BMI recorded at 27-30 months. Prevalence also varied greatly, from 1.3% of children's names being on the Child Protection register for over six months by age three, to 93.6% having received all immunisations by age two. CONCLUSIONS: Home visiting services play a key role in ensuring children and families have the right support to enable the best start in life. As these programmes evolve, it is crucial to understand whether changes lead to improvements in child outcomes. This paper describes a set of indicators using routinely-collected data, lessening additional burden on participants, and reducing response bias which may be apparent in other forms of evaluation. Further research is needed to explore the transferability of this indicator framework to other settings.

External validation of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH clinical prediction rules to identify risk of death in children hospitalized with pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Existing scores to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality lack broad external validation. Our objective was to externally validate three such risk scores. METHODS: We applied the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) for HIV-negative children, the RISC-Malawi, and the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) scores to hospitalized children in the Pneumonia REsearch Partnerships to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) data set. The PREPARE data set includes pooled data from 41 studies on pediatric pneumonia from across the world. We calculated test characteristics and the area under the curve (AUC) for each of these clinical prediction rules. RESULTS: The RISC score for HIV-negative children was applied to 3574 children 0-24 months and demonstrated poor discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-0.73) in the identification of children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. The RISC-Malawi score had fair discriminatory value (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.74-0.77) among 17 864 children 2-59 months. The PERCH score was applied to 732 children 1-59 months and also demonstrated poor discriminatory value (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.37-0.73). CONCLUSIONS: In a large external application of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH scores, a substantial number of children were misclassified for their risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. Although pneumonia risk scores have performed well among the cohorts in which they were derived, their performance diminished when externally applied. A generalizable risk assessment tool with higher sensitivity and specificity to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality may be needed. Such a generalizable risk assessment tool would need context-specific validation prior to implementation in that setting.

A prognostic model, including quantitative fetal fibronectin, to predict preterm labour: the QUIDS meta-analysis and prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of preterm labour is challenging. False-positive diagnoses are common and result in unnecessary, potentially harmful treatments (e.g. tocolytics, antenatal corticosteroids and magnesium sulphate) and costly hospital admissions. Measurement of fetal fibronectin in vaginal fluid is a biochemical test that can indicate impending preterm birth. OBJECTIVES: To develop an externally validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors, for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth and to assess its cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: The study comprised (1) a qualitative study to establish the decisional needs of pregnant women and their caregivers, (2) an individual participant data meta-analysis of existing studies to develop a prognostic model for spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days in women with symptoms of preterm labour based on quantitative fetal fibronectin and clinical risk factors, (3) external validation of the prognostic model in a prospective cohort study across 26 UK centres, (4) a model-based economic evaluation comparing the prognostic model with qualitative fetal fibronectin, and quantitative fetal fibronectin with cervical length measurement, in terms of cost per QALY gained and (5) a qualitative assessment of the acceptability of quantitative fetal fibronectin. DATA SOURCES/SETTING: The model was developed using data from five European prospective cohort studies of quantitative fetal fibronectin. The UK prospective cohort study was carried out across 26 UK centres. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant women at 22+0-34+6 weeks' gestation with signs and symptoms of preterm labour. HEALTH TECHNOLOGY BEING ASSESSED: Quantitative fetal fibronectin. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days. RESULTS: The individual participant data meta-analysis included 1783 women and 139 events of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days (event rate 7.8%). The prognostic model that was developed included quantitative fetal fibronectin, smoking, ethnicity, nulliparity and multiple pregnancy. The model was externally validated in a cohort of 2837 women, with 83 events of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days (event rate 2.93%), an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.93), a calibration slope of 1.22 and a Nagelkerke R2 of 0.34. The economic analysis found that the prognostic model was cost-effective compared with using qualitative fetal fibronectin at a threshold for hospital admission and treatment of ≥ 2% risk of preterm birth within 7 days. LIMITATIONS: The outcome proportion (spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test) was 2.9% in the validation study. This is in line with other studies, but having slightly fewer than 100 events is a limitation in model validation. CONCLUSIONS: A prognostic model that included quantitative fetal fibronectin and clinical risk factors showed excellent performance in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test, was cost-effective and can be used to inform a decision support tool to help guide management decisions for women with threatened preterm labour. FUTURE WORK: The prognostic model will be embedded in electronic maternity records and a mobile telephone application, enabling ongoing data collection for further refinement and validation of the model. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015027590 and Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN41598423. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 52. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Identifying which women with symptoms of labour will give birth early is challenging, so many women unnecessarily receive therapies aimed at preventing complications in preterm birth. A test called quantitative fetal fibronectin, which uses vaginal swab samples, may help to improve the diagnosis of preterm labour. Fetal fibronectin is a protein that is released from the fetal membranes that surround the developing baby in the womb. The lower the concentration of fetal fibronectin, the less likely the occurrence of preterm birth. Our aim was to see if quantitative fetal fibronectin, in combination with some features of pregnancy (e.g. previous pregnancy history and twin pregnancy), can accurately predict preterm birth in women who have symptoms of preterm labour. We asked women, their partners, doctors and midwives what information would be most useful to them, and how this should be presented. We then analysed previous research data; we used quantitative fetal fibronectin and clinical risk factors together to predict the chance of preterm birth. We explored which features could predict preterm birth most effectively while still being good value to the NHS. To ensure that this risk predictor worked in UK populations, we undertook a research study across 26 UK hospitals. Women who had symptoms of preterm labour were invited to participate. We collected information from these women (approximately 3000 women), including quantitative fetal fibronectin results. We found that a risk predictor comprising quantitative fetal fibronectin and four other features performed best at predicting whether or not preterm birth will occur within the next week for women with symptoms of preterm labour, and that this had potential to be clinically useful and cost-effective. The quantitative fetal fibronectin testing process was acceptable to women, and clinicians found the risk predictor useful. We used our findings to develop a risk calculator to help women and clinicians assess how likely preterm birth is, and decide whether or not to start treatment.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model of preterm birth for women with preterm labour symptoms (the QUIDS study): A prospective cohort study and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Timely interventions in women presenting with preterm labour can substantially improve health outcomes for preterm babies. However, establishing such a diagnosis is very challenging, as signs and symptoms of preterm labour are common and can be nonspecific. We aimed to develop and externally validate a risk prediction model using concentration of vaginal fluid fetal fibronectin (quantitative fFN), in combination with clinical risk factors, for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth and assessed its cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Pregnant women included in the analyses were 22+0 to 34+6 weeks gestation with signs and symptoms of preterm labour. The primary outcome was spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of quantitative fFN test. The risk prediction model was developed and internally validated in an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of 5 European prospective cohort studies (2009 to 2016; 1,783 women; mean age 29.7 years; median BMI 24.8 kg/m2; 67.6% White; 11.7% smokers; 51.8% nulliparous; 10.4% with multiple pregnancy; 139 [7.8%] with spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days). The model was then externally validated in a prospective cohort study in 26 United Kingdom centres (2016 to 2018; 2,924 women; mean age 28.2 years; median BMI 25.4 kg/m2; 88.2% White; 21% smokers; 35.2% nulliparous; 3.5% with multiple pregnancy; 85 [2.9%] with spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days). The developed risk prediction model for spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days included quantitative fFN, current smoking, not White ethnicity, nulliparity, and multiple pregnancy. After internal validation, the optimism adjusted area under the curve was 0.89 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.92), and the optimism adjusted Nagelkerke R2 was 35% (95% CI 33% to 37%). On external validation in the prospective UK cohort population, the area under the curve was 0.89 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.94), and Nagelkerke R2 of 36% (95% CI: 34% to 38%). Recalibration of the model's intercept was required to ensure overall calibration-in-the-large. A calibration curve suggested close agreement between predicted and observed risks in the range of predictions 0% to 10%, but some miscalibration (underprediction) at higher risks (slope 1.24 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.26)). Despite any miscalibration, the net benefit of the model was higher than "treat all" or "treat none" strategies for thresholds up to about 15% risk. The economic analysis found the prognostic model was cost effective, compared to using qualitative fFN, at a threshold for hospital admission and treatment of ≥2% risk of preterm birth within 7 days. Study limitations include the limited number of participants who are not White and levels of missing data for certain variables in the development dataset. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that a risk prediction model including vaginal fFN concentration and clinical risk factors showed promising performance in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test and has potential to inform management decisions for women with threatened preterm labour. Further evaluation of the risk prediction model in clinical practice is required to determine whether the risk prediction model improves clinical outcomes if used in practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). The study was registered with ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN 41598423) and NIHR Portfolio (CPMS: 31277).

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for development of diabetic foot ulceration: an analysis of data from five cohort studies.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the study was to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR) for foot ulceration in people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Development of a CPR using individual participant data from four international cohort studies identified by systematic review, with validation in a fifth study. Development cohorts were from primary and secondary care foot clinics in Europe and the USA (n=8255, adults over 18 years old, with diabetes, ulcer free at recruitment). Using data from monofilament testing, presence/absence of pulses, and participant history of previous ulcer and/or amputation, we developed a simple CPR to predict who will develop a foot ulcer within 2 years of initial assessment and validated it in a fifth study (n=3324). The CPR's performance was assessed with C-statistics, calibration slopes, calibration-in-the-large, and a net benefit analysis. RESULTS: CPR scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 had a risk of ulcer within 2 years of 2.4% (95% CI 1.5% to 3.9%), 6.0% (95% CI 3.5% to 9.5%), 14.0% (95% CI 8.5% to 21.3%), 29.2% (95% CI 19.2% to 41.0%), and 51.1% (95% CI 37.9% to 64.1%), respectively. In the validation dataset, calibration-in-the-large was -0.374 (95% CI -0.561 to -0.187) and calibration slope 1.139 (95% CI 0.994 to 1.283). The C-statistic was 0.829 (95% CI 0.790 to 0.868). The net benefit analysis suggested that people with a CPR score of 1 or more (risk of ulceration 6.0% or more) should be referred for treatment. CONCLUSION: The clinical prediction rule is simple, using routinely obtained data, and could help prevent foot ulcers by redirecting care to patients with scores of 1 or above. It has been validated in a community setting, and requires further validation in secondary care settings.

Risk factors for poor outcomes in hospitalised COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the risk factors for poor outcomes among COVID-19 patients could help identify vulnerable populations who would need prioritisation in prevention and treatment for COVID-19. We aimed to critically appraise and synthesise published evidence on the risk factors for poor outcomes in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We searched PubMed, medRxiv and the WHO COVID-19 literature database for studies that reported characteristics of COVID-19 patients who required hospitalisation. We included studies published between January and May 2020 that reported adjusted effect size of any demographic and/or clinical factors for any of the three poor outcomes: mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and invasive mechanical ventilation. We appraised the quality of the included studies using Joanna Briggs Institute appraisal tools and quantitatively synthesised the evidence through a series of random-effect meta-analyses. To aid data interpretation, we further developed an interpretation framework that indicated strength of the evidence, informed by both quantity and quality of the evidence. RESULTS: We included a total of 40 studies in our review. Most of the included studies (29/40, 73%) were assessed as "good quality", with assessment scores of 80 or more. We found that male sex (pooled odds ratio (OR) = 1.32 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.18-1.48; 20 studies), older age (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.04-1.07, per one year of age increase; 10 studies), obesity (OR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.02-2.48; 4 studies), diabetes (OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.11-1.40; 11 studies) and chronic kidney diseases (6 studies; OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.27-1.93) were associated with increased risks for mortality with the greatest strength of evidence based on our interpretation framework. We did not find increased risk of mortality for several factors including chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (5 studies), cancer (4 studies), or current smoker (5 studies); however, this does not indicate absence of risk due to limited data on each of these factors. CONCLUSION: Male sex, older age, obesity, diabetes and chronic kidney diseases are important risk factors of COVID-19 poor outcomes. Our review provides not only an appraisal and synthesis of evidence on the risk factors of COVID-19 poor outcomes, but also a data interpretation framework that could be adopted by relevant future research.

Study protocol: a mixed-methods realist evaluation of the Universal Health Visiting Pathway in Scotland.

INTRODUCTION: The growing political emphasis on the early years reflects the importance of these formative years of life. Health visitors in the UK are uniquely positioned to improve health outcomes for children and families and to reduce health inequalities. Recently, there has been a policy change in Scotland in an attempt to enhance the delivery of the universal health visiting service. This study aims to examine the extent to which the enhanced Universal Health Visiting Pathway is implemented and delivered across Scotland and to assess any associated impacts. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A mixed-methods study incorporating four methodological components and uses realist evaluation as the overall conceptual framework. It comprises three phases (1) initial programme theory development; (2) programme theory validation and (3) programme theory refinement. The programme theory validation will use interview and focus group data of parents and health visitors, and conduct a case note review at five study sites. It also involves a national survey of parents and health visitors and routine data analysis of existing secondary data. The analyses of the ensuing qualitative and quantitative data will be carried out using a convergent mixed-methods approach to ensure continuous triangulation of multiple data. The findings of the evaluation will provide contextually relevant understanding of how the Universal Health Visiting Pathway works and evidence the impact of increased investments in health visiting in Scotland. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol has been approved by the School of Health in Social Science Research Ethics Committee, University of Edinburgh. Additional approvals have been granted/will be sought from the Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for health and social care in Scotland for the case note review,survey and routine data analysis elements of the evaluation. The findings will be prepared as reports to the funders and presented at conferences. It will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

Risk assessments and structured care interventions for prevention of foot ulceration in diabetes: development and validation of a prognostic model.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes-related foot ulcers give rise to considerable morbidity, generate a high monetary cost for health and social care services and precede the majority of diabetes-related lower extremity amputations. There are many clinical prediction rules in existence to assess risk of foot ulceration but few have been subject to validation. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to produce an evidence-based clinical pathway for risk assessment and management of the foot in people with diabetes mellitus to estimate cost-effective monitoring intervals and to perform cost-effectiveness analyses and a value-of-information analysis. DESIGN: We developed and validated a prognostic model using predictive modelling, calibration and discrimination techniques. An overview of systematic reviews already completed was followed by a review of randomised controlled trials of interventions to prevent foot ulceration in diabetes mellitus. A review of the health economic literature was followed by the construction of an economic model, an analysis of the transitional probability of moving from one foot risk state to another, an assessment of cost-effectiveness and a value-of-information analysis. INTERVENTIONS: The effects of simple and complex interventions and different monitoring intervals for the clinical prediction rules were evaluated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome was the incidence of foot ulceration. We compared the new clinical prediction rules in conjunction with the most effective preventative interventions at different monitoring intervals with a 'treat-all' strategy. DATA SOURCES: Data from an electronic health record for 26,154 people with diabetes mellitus in one Scottish health board were used to estimate the monitoring interval. The Prediction Of Diabetic foot UlcerationS (PODUS) data set was used to develop and validate the clinical prediction rule. REVIEW METHODS: We searched for eligible randomised controlled trials of interventions using search strategies created for Ovid® (Wolters Kluwer, Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands), MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials in progress were identified via the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Registry and systematic reviews were identified via PROSPERO. Databases were searched from inception to February 2019. RESULTS: The clinical prediction rule was found to accurately assess the risk of foot ulceration. Digital infrared thermometry, complex interventions and therapeutic footwear with offloading devices were found to be effective in preventing foot ulcers. The risk of developing a foot ulcer did not change over time for most people. We found that interventions to prevent foot ulceration may be cost-effective but there is uncertainty about this. Digital infrared thermometry and therapeutic footwear with offloading devices may be cost-effective when used to treat all people with diabetes mellitus regardless of their ulcer risk. LIMITATIONS: The threats to the validity of the results in some randomised controlled trials in the review and the large number of missing data in the electronic health record mean that there is uncertainty in our estimates. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that interventions to prevent foot ulceration are effective but it is not clear who would benefit most from receiving the interventions. The ulceration risk does not change over an 8-year period for most people with diabetes mellitus. A change in the monitoring interval from annually to every 2 years for those at low risk would be acceptable. FUTURE WORK RECOMMENDATIONS: Improving the completeness of electronic health records and sharing data would help improve our knowledge about the most clinically effective and cost-effective approaches to prevent foot ulceration in diabetes mellitus. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016052324. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 62. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

People with diabetes sometimes have problems with their feet that can become serious and make getting around harder and life less enjoyable. We have developed a test based on a simple score to find out a person's risk of getting a foot ulcer. We also wanted to know how often the test needs to be done. People who have been tested and learn that they might go on to have foot problems rightly expect to be given treatment that stops the problem happening in the first place. In this project, we read many written reports about the best treatments to prevent foot ulcers. We found that some things can prevent foot ulcers, such as wearing special shoes and insoles, taking the temperature of the skin of the foot and resting when the temperature rises, and receiving specialist care from diabetes foot care teams. However, we also looked at the costs of the test and treatments and found that some treatments are better value for money than others. By using people's health data from NHS computers, we discovered that very few people with diabetes develop a worse risk score for foot ulcers as time goes on, and it seems that being tested every year is not necessary for everyone. New clinical trials might help to improve foot health for people with diabetes, but if all of the researchers who have collected data from people in clinical trials shared their data it would be possible to find out more about who will gain most from these treatments without spending a lot on new research. It is clear that better input of patients' health data into NHS computers will benefit diabetes research in the future.

An analysis of clinical predictive values for radiographic pneumonia in children.

INTRODUCTION: Healthcare providers in resource-limited settings rely on the presence of tachypnoea and chest indrawing to establish a diagnosis of pneumonia in children. We aimed to determine the test characteristics of commonly assessed signs and symptoms for the radiographic diagnosis of pneumonia in children 0-59 months of age. METHODS: We conducted an analysis using patient-level pooled data from 41 shared datasets of paediatric pneumonia. We included hospital-based studies in which >80% of children had chest radiography performed. Primary endpoint pneumonia (presence of dense opacity occupying a portion or entire lobe of the lung or presence of pleural effusion on chest radiograph) was used as the reference criterion radiographic standard. We assessed the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for clinical findings, and combinations of findings, for the diagnosis of primary endpoint pneumonia among children 0-59 months of age. RESULTS: Ten studies met inclusion criteria comprising 15 029 children; 24.9% (n=3743) had radiographic pneumonia. The presence of age-based tachypnoea demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.92 and a specificity of 0.22 while lower chest indrawing revealed a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.15 for the diagnosis of radiographic pneumonia. The sensitivity and specificity for oxygen saturation <90% was 0.40 and 0.67, respectively, and was 0.17 and 0.88 for oxygen saturation <85%. Specificity was improved when individual clinical factors such as tachypnoea, fever and hypoxaemia were combined, however, the sensitivity was lower. CONCLUSIONS: No single sign or symptom was strongly associated with radiographic primary end point pneumonia in children. Performance characteristics were improved by combining individual signs and symptoms.

Endovenous ablation therapy (laser or radiofrequency) or foam sclerotherapy versus conventional surgical repair for short saphenous varicose veins.

BACKGROUND: Short (or small) saphenous vein (SSV) varices occur as a result of an incompetent sapheno-popliteal junction, where the SSV joins the popliteal vein, resulting in reflux in the SSV; they account for about 15% of varicose veins. Untreated varicose veins may sometimes lead to ulceration of the leg, which is difficult to manage. Traditionally, treatment was restricted to surgery or conservative management. Since the 1990s, however, a number of minimally invasive techniques have been developed; these do not normally require a general anaesthetic, are day-case procedures with a quicker return to normal activities and avoid the risk of wound infection which may occur following surgery. Nerve injury remains a risk with thermal ablation, but in cases where it does occur, the injury tends to be transient. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness of endovenous laser ablation (EVLA), radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and ultrasound-guided foam sclerotherapy (UGFS) versus conventional surgery in the treatment of SSV varices. SEARCH METHODS: The Cochrane Vascular Information Specialist searched the Specialised Register (last searched 17 March 2016) and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2016, Issue 2). We searched clinical trials databases for details of ongoing or unpublished studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We considered all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing EVLA, endovenous RFA or UGFS with conventional surgery in the treatment of SSV varices for inclusion. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We independently reviewed, assessed and selected trials that met the inclusion criteria; any disagreements were resolved by discussion. We extracted data and used the Cochrane's tool for assessing risk of bias. When the data permitted, we performed either fixed-effect meta-analyses with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) or random-effects meta-analyses where there was moderate to significant heterogeneity. MAIN RESULTS: We identified three RCTs, all of which compared EVLA with surgery; one also compared UGFS with surgery. There were no trials comparing RFA with surgery. The EVLA versus surgery comparison included 311 participants: 185 received EVLA and 126 received surgery. In the UGFS comparison, each treatment group contained 21 people. For several outcomes in the EVLA comparison, only a single study provided relevant data; as a result, the current review is limited in its ability to demonstrate meaningful results for some planned outcomes. The quality of evidence according to GRADE was moderate to low for the outcome measures in the EVLA versus surgery comparison, but low for the UGFS versus surgery comparison. Reasons for downgrading in the EVLA versus surgery comparison were risk of bias (for some outcomes, the outcome assessors were not blinded; and in one study the EVLA-surgery allocation of 2:1 did not appear to be prespecified); imprecision (data were only available from a single small study and the CIs were relatively wide); indirectness (one trial reported results at six months rather than one year and was inadequately powered for SSV varices-only analysis). Reasons for downgrading in the UGFS versus surgery comparison were imprecision (only one trial offered UGFS and several participants were missing from the analysis) and a limitation in design (the study was inadequately powered for SSV participants alone).For the EVLA versus surgery comparison, recanalisation or persistence of reflux at six weeks occurred less frequently in the EVLA group than in the surgery group (OR 0.07, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.22; I2 = 51%; 289 participants, 3 studies, moderate-quality evidence). Recurrence of reflux at one year was also less frequent in the EVLA group than in the surgery group (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.77; I2 = 0%; 119 participants, 2 studies, low-quality evidence). For the outcome clinical evidence of recurrence (i.e. presence of new visible varicose veins) at one year, there was no difference between the two treatment groups (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.17 to 1.75; 99 participants, 1 study, low-quality evidence). Four participants each in the EVLA and surgery groups required reintervention due to technical failure (99 participants, 1 study, moderate-quality evidence). There was no difference between the two treatment groups for disease-specific quality of life (QoL) (Aberdeen Varicose Veins Questionnaire) either at six weeks (mean difference (MD) 0.15, 95% CI -1.65 to 1.95; I2 = 0%; 265 participants, 2 studies, moderate-quality evidence), or at one year (MD -1.08, 95% CI -3.39 to 1.23; 99 participants, 1 study, low-quality evidence). Main complications reported at six weeks were sural nerve injury, wound infection and deep venous thrombosis (DVT) (one DVT case in each treatment group; EVLA: 1/161, 0.6%; surgery 1/104, 1%; 265 participants, 2 studies, moderate-quality evidence).For the UGFS versus surgery comparison, there were insufficient data to detect clear differences between the two treatment groups for the two outcomes recanalisation or persistence of reflux at six weeks (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.06 to 2.10; 33 participants, 1 study, low-quality evidence), and recurrence of reflux at one year (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.29 to 4.92; 31 participants, 1 study, low-quality evidence). No other outcomes could be reported for this comparison because the study data were not stratified according to saphenous vein. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Moderate- to low-quality evidence exists to suggest that recanalisation or persistence of reflux at six weeks and recurrence of reflux at one year are less frequent when EVLA is performed, compared with conventional surgery. For the UGFS versus conventional surgery comparison, the quality of evidence is assessed to be low; consequently, the effectiveness of UGFS compared with conventional surgery in the treatment of SSV varices is uncertain. Further RCTs for all comparisons are required with longer follow-up (at least five years). In addition, measurement of outcomes such as recurrence of reflux, time taken to return to work, duration of procedure, pain, etc., and choice of time points during follow-up should be standardised such that future trials evaluating newer technologies can be compared efficiently.

Clinical course of untreated cerebral cavernous malformations: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) can cause symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (ICH), but the estimated risks are imprecise and predictors remain uncertain. We aimed to obtain precise estimates and predictors of the risk of ICH during untreated follow-up in an individual patient data meta-analysis. METHODS: We invited investigators of published cohorts of people aged at least 16 years, identified by a systematic review of Ovid MEDLINE and Embase from inception to April 30, 2015, to provide individual patient data on clinical course from CCM diagnosis until first CCM treatment or last available follow-up. We used survival analysis to estimate the 5-year risk of symptomatic ICH due to CCMs (primary outcome), multivariable Cox regression to identify baseline predictors of outcome, and random-effects models to pool estimates in a meta-analysis. FINDINGS: Among 1620 people in seven cohorts from six studies, 204 experienced ICH during 5197 person-years of follow-up (Kaplan-Meier estimated 5-year risk 15·8%, 95% CI 13·7-17·9). The primary outcome of ICH within 5 years of CCM diagnosis was associated with clinical presentation with ICH or new focal neurological deficit (FND) without brain imaging evidence of recent haemorrhage versus other modes of presentation (hazard ratio 5·6, 95% CI 3·2-9·7) and with brainstem CCM location versus other locations (4·4, 2·3-8·6), but age, sex, and CCM multiplicity did not add independent prognostic information. The 5-year estimated risk of ICH during untreated follow-up was 3·8% (95% CI 2·1-5·5) for 718 people with non-brainstem CCM presenting without ICH or FND, 8·0% (0·1-15·9) for 80 people with brainstem CCM presenting without ICH or FND, 18·4% (13·3-23·5) for 327 people with non-brainstem CCM presenting with ICH or FND, and 30·8% (26·3-35·2) for 495 people with brainstem CCM presenting with ICH or FND. INTERPRETATION: Mode of clinical presentation and CCM location are independently associated with ICH within 5 years of CCM diagnosis. These findings can inform decisions about CCM treatment. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government, and UK Stroke Association.

Outcome after surgical or conservative management of cerebral cavernous malformations.

OBJECTIVE: There have been few comparative studies of microsurgical excision vs conservative management of cerebral cavernous malformations (CCM) and none of them has reliably demonstrated a statistically and clinically significant difference. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, population-based study to identify and independently validate definite CCM diagnoses first made in 1999-2003 in Scottish adult residents. We used multiple sources of prospective follow-up to assess adults' dependence and to identify and independently validate outcome events. We used univariate and multivariable survival analyses to test the influence of CCM excision on outcome, adjusted for prognostic factors and baseline imbalances. RESULTS: Of 134 adults, 25 underwent CCM excision; these adults were younger (34 vs 43 years at diagnosis, p = 0.004) and more likely to present with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or focal neurologic deficit than adults managed conservatively (48% vs 26%; odds ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-6.5). During 5 years of follow-up, CCM excision was associated with a deterioration to an Oxford Handicap Scale score 2-6 sustained over at least 2 successive years (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.3) and the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or new focal neurologic deficit (adjusted HR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-10.0). CONCLUSIONS: CCM excision was associated with worse outcomes over 5 years compared to conservative management. Long-term follow-up will determine whether this difference is sustained over patients' lifetimes. Meanwhile, a randomized controlled trial appears justified. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that CCM excision worsens short-term disability scores and increases the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and new focal neurologic deficits.

Untreated clinical course of cerebral cavernous malformations: a prospective, population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) are prone to bleeding but the risk of intracranial haemorrhage and focal neurological deficits, and the factors that might predict their occurrence, are unclear. We aimed to quantify these risks and investigate whether they are affected by sex and CCM location. METHODS: We undertook a population-based study using multiple overlapping sources of case ascertainment (including a Scotland-wide collaboration of neurologists, neurosurgeons, stroke physicians, radiologists, and pathologists, as well as searches of registers of hospital discharges and death certificates) to identify definite CCM diagnoses first made in Scottish residents between 1999 and 2003, which study neuroradiologists independently validated. We used multiple sources of prospective follow-up both to identify outcome events (which were assessed by use of brain imaging, by investigators masked to potential predictive factors) and to assess adults' dependence. The primary outcome was a composite of intracranial haemorrhage or focal neurological deficits (not including epileptic seizure) that were definitely or possibly related to CCM. FINDINGS: 139 adults had at least one definite CCM and 134 were alive at initial presentation. During 1177 person-years of follow-up (completeness 97%), for intracranial haemorrhage alone the 5-year risk of a first haemorrhage was lower than the risk of recurrent haemorrhage (2·4%, 95% CI 0·0-5·7 vs 29·5%, 4·1-55·0; p<0·0001). For the primary outcome, the 5-year risk of a first event was lower than the risk of recurrence (9·3%, 3·1-15·4 vs 42·4%, 26·8-58·0; p<0·0001). The annual risk of recurrence of the primary outcome declined from 19·8% (95% CI 6·1-33·4) in year 1 to 5·0% (0·0-14·8) in year 5 and was higher for women than men (p=0·01) but not for adults with brainstem CCMs versus CCMs in other locations (p=0·17). INTERPRETATION: The risk of recurrent intracranial haemorrhage or focal neurological deficit from a CCM is greater than the risk of a first event, is greater for women than for men, and declines over 5 years. This information can be used in clinical practice, but further work is needed to quantify risks precisely in the long term and to understand why women are at greater risk of recurrence than men. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government, and UK Stroke Association.