Study protocol: a mixed-methods realist evaluation of the Universal Health Visiting Pathway in Scotland.

INTRODUCTION: The growing political emphasis on the early years reflects the importance of these formative years of life. Health visitors in the UK are uniquely positioned to improve health outcomes for children and families and to reduce health inequalities. Recently, there has been a policy change in Scotland in an attempt to enhance the delivery of the universal health visiting service. This study aims to examine the extent to which the enhanced Universal Health Visiting Pathway is implemented and delivered across Scotland and to assess any associated impacts. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A mixed-methods study incorporating four methodological components and uses realist evaluation as the overall conceptual framework. It comprises three phases (1) initial programme theory development; (2) programme theory validation and (3) programme theory refinement. The programme theory validation will use interview and focus group data of parents and health visitors, and conduct a case note review at five study sites. It also involves a national survey of parents and health visitors and routine data analysis of existing secondary data. The analyses of the ensuing qualitative and quantitative data will be carried out using a convergent mixed-methods approach to ensure continuous triangulation of multiple data. The findings of the evaluation will provide contextually relevant understanding of how the Universal Health Visiting Pathway works and evidence the impact of increased investments in health visiting in Scotland. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol has been approved by the School of Health in Social Science Research Ethics Committee, University of Edinburgh. Additional approvals have been granted/will be sought from the Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for health and social care in Scotland for the case note review,survey and routine data analysis elements of the evaluation. The findings will be prepared as reports to the funders and presented at conferences. It will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

Clinical course of untreated cerebral cavernous malformations: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) can cause symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (ICH), but the estimated risks are imprecise and predictors remain uncertain. We aimed to obtain precise estimates and predictors of the risk of ICH during untreated follow-up in an individual patient data meta-analysis. METHODS: We invited investigators of published cohorts of people aged at least 16 years, identified by a systematic review of Ovid MEDLINE and Embase from inception to April 30, 2015, to provide individual patient data on clinical course from CCM diagnosis until first CCM treatment or last available follow-up. We used survival analysis to estimate the 5-year risk of symptomatic ICH due to CCMs (primary outcome), multivariable Cox regression to identify baseline predictors of outcome, and random-effects models to pool estimates in a meta-analysis. FINDINGS: Among 1620 people in seven cohorts from six studies, 204 experienced ICH during 5197 person-years of follow-up (Kaplan-Meier estimated 5-year risk 15·8%, 95% CI 13·7-17·9). The primary outcome of ICH within 5 years of CCM diagnosis was associated with clinical presentation with ICH or new focal neurological deficit (FND) without brain imaging evidence of recent haemorrhage versus other modes of presentation (hazard ratio 5·6, 95% CI 3·2-9·7) and with brainstem CCM location versus other locations (4·4, 2·3-8·6), but age, sex, and CCM multiplicity did not add independent prognostic information. The 5-year estimated risk of ICH during untreated follow-up was 3·8% (95% CI 2·1-5·5) for 718 people with non-brainstem CCM presenting without ICH or FND, 8·0% (0·1-15·9) for 80 people with brainstem CCM presenting without ICH or FND, 18·4% (13·3-23·5) for 327 people with non-brainstem CCM presenting with ICH or FND, and 30·8% (26·3-35·2) for 495 people with brainstem CCM presenting with ICH or FND. INTERPRETATION: Mode of clinical presentation and CCM location are independently associated with ICH within 5 years of CCM diagnosis. These findings can inform decisions about CCM treatment. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government, and UK Stroke Association.

Outcome after surgical or conservative management of cerebral cavernous malformations.

OBJECTIVE: There have been few comparative studies of microsurgical excision vs conservative management of cerebral cavernous malformations (CCM) and none of them has reliably demonstrated a statistically and clinically significant difference. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, population-based study to identify and independently validate definite CCM diagnoses first made in 1999-2003 in Scottish adult residents. We used multiple sources of prospective follow-up to assess adults' dependence and to identify and independently validate outcome events. We used univariate and multivariable survival analyses to test the influence of CCM excision on outcome, adjusted for prognostic factors and baseline imbalances. RESULTS: Of 134 adults, 25 underwent CCM excision; these adults were younger (34 vs 43 years at diagnosis, p = 0.004) and more likely to present with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or focal neurologic deficit than adults managed conservatively (48% vs 26%; odds ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-6.5). During 5 years of follow-up, CCM excision was associated with a deterioration to an Oxford Handicap Scale score 2-6 sustained over at least 2 successive years (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.3) and the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or new focal neurologic deficit (adjusted HR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-10.0). CONCLUSIONS: CCM excision was associated with worse outcomes over 5 years compared to conservative management. Long-term follow-up will determine whether this difference is sustained over patients' lifetimes. Meanwhile, a randomized controlled trial appears justified. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that CCM excision worsens short-term disability scores and increases the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and new focal neurologic deficits.

Untreated clinical course of cerebral cavernous malformations: a prospective, population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) are prone to bleeding but the risk of intracranial haemorrhage and focal neurological deficits, and the factors that might predict their occurrence, are unclear. We aimed to quantify these risks and investigate whether they are affected by sex and CCM location. METHODS: We undertook a population-based study using multiple overlapping sources of case ascertainment (including a Scotland-wide collaboration of neurologists, neurosurgeons, stroke physicians, radiologists, and pathologists, as well as searches of registers of hospital discharges and death certificates) to identify definite CCM diagnoses first made in Scottish residents between 1999 and 2003, which study neuroradiologists independently validated. We used multiple sources of prospective follow-up both to identify outcome events (which were assessed by use of brain imaging, by investigators masked to potential predictive factors) and to assess adults' dependence. The primary outcome was a composite of intracranial haemorrhage or focal neurological deficits (not including epileptic seizure) that were definitely or possibly related to CCM. FINDINGS: 139 adults had at least one definite CCM and 134 were alive at initial presentation. During 1177 person-years of follow-up (completeness 97%), for intracranial haemorrhage alone the 5-year risk of a first haemorrhage was lower than the risk of recurrent haemorrhage (2·4%, 95% CI 0·0-5·7 vs 29·5%, 4·1-55·0; p<0·0001). For the primary outcome, the 5-year risk of a first event was lower than the risk of recurrence (9·3%, 3·1-15·4 vs 42·4%, 26·8-58·0; p<0·0001). The annual risk of recurrence of the primary outcome declined from 19·8% (95% CI 6·1-33·4) in year 1 to 5·0% (0·0-14·8) in year 5 and was higher for women than men (p=0·01) but not for adults with brainstem CCMs versus CCMs in other locations (p=0·17). INTERPRETATION: The risk of recurrent intracranial haemorrhage or focal neurological deficit from a CCM is greater than the risk of a first event, is greater for women than for men, and declines over 5 years. This information can be used in clinical practice, but further work is needed to quantify risks precisely in the long term and to understand why women are at greater risk of recurrence than men. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government, and UK Stroke Association.