The quasi-CRM shift method for partially ordered groups.

This paper proposes a phase-I clinical trial design that uses ordinal toxicity to locate group-specific doses when groups are partially or completely ordered prior to the start of the trial. There has been previous work on dose-finding for groups and on dose-finding with ordinal toxicity but a solution to the problem of dose-finding for groups with ordinal toxicity has not been proposed. Simulations compared the proposed method against two methods; one that uses ordinal toxicity but does not use group information and one that uses group information but does not use ordinal toxicity. One issue with the first method is the potential for reversals, when the recommended dose for a more sensitive group is higher than the recommended dose for a less sensitive group. The proposed method avoids reversals, allocates patients to optimal doses more frequently during the trial, and selects optimal doses more frequently at the end of the trial.

Improved recognition of lung function decline as signal of cystic fibrosis pulmonary exacerbation: a Cystic Fibrosis Learning Network Innovation Laboratory quality improvement initiative.

INTRODUCTION: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a systemic autosomal recessive condition characterised by progressive lung disease. CF pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) are episodes of worsening respiratory status, and frequent PEx are a risk factor for accelerated lung function decline, yet many people with CF (PwCF) go untreated at the time of decline. The goal of this quality improvement (QI) initiative was to improve recognition, treatment and follow-up of PEx in PwCF. METHODS: Using the Model for Improvement, the Cystic Fibrosis Learning Network (CFLN) initiated a QI innovation laboratory (iLab) with a global aim to decrease the rate of lung function decline in PwCF. The iLab standardised definitions for signals of PEx using a threshold for decline in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and/or changes in symptoms. The FEV1 decline signal was termed FIES (FEV1-indicated exacerbation signal). Processes for screening and recognition of FIES and/or symptom changes, a treatment algorithm and follow-up in the presence of a signal were tested concurrently in multiple settings. SPECIFIC AIMS: The specific aim is to increase the per cent of PwCF assessed for a PEx signal at ambulatory encounters and to increase the per cent of recommendations to follow-up within 6 weeks for PwCF experiencing a PEx signal. RESULTS: FIES recognition increased from 18.6% to 73.4% across all teams during the iLab, and every team showed an improvement. Of PwCF assessed, 15.8% experienced an FIES event (>10% decline in FEV1 per cent predicted (FEV1pp)). Follow-up within 6 weeks was recommended for an average of 70.5% of those assessed for FIES and had an FEV1pp decline greater than 5%. CONCLUSION: The CFLN iLab successfully defined and implemented a process to recognise and follow-up PEx signals. This process has the potential to be spread to the larger CF community. Further studies are needed to assess the impact of these processes on PwCF outcomes.

Bayesian Design for Identifying Cohort-Specific Optimal Dose Combinations Based on Multiple Endpoints: Application to a Phase I Trial in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Immunotherapy and chemotherapy combinations have proven to be a safe and efficacious treatment approach in multiple settings. However, it is not clear whether approved doses of chemotherapy developed to achieve a maximum tolerated dose are the ideal dose when combining cytotoxic chemotherapy with immunotherapy to induce immune responses. This trial of a modulated dose chemotherapy and Pembrolizumab, with or without a second immunomodulatory agent, uses a Bayesian design to select the optimal treatment combination by balancing both safety and efficacy of the chemotherapy and immunotherapy agents within each of two cohorts. The simulation study provides evidence that the proposed Bayesian design successfully addresses the primary study aim to identify the optimal dose combination for each of the two independent patient cohorts. This conclusion is supported by the high percentage of simulated trials which select a treatment combination that is both safe and highly efficacious. The proposed trial was funded and was being finalized when the sponsoring company decided not to proceed due to negative findings in another patient population. The proposed trial design will continue to be relevant as multiple chemotherapy and immunotherapy combinations become the standard of care and future research will require evaluating the appropriate doses of various components of multiple drug regimens.

Operating characteristics are needed to properly evaluate the scientific validity of phase I protocols.

PURPOSE: Operating characteristics for proposed clinical trial designs provide insight into performance regarding safety and accuracy, allowing the study team and review entities to determine the design's suitability to achieve the study's proposed objectives. Advances in cancer therapeutics have augmented the needs of early phase clinical trial design. Additionally, advances in research on early-phase trial design have led to the availability of a wide range of methods that show vast improvement over outdated approaches. METHODS: Three trials utilizing variations of the 3 + 3 decision rule are discussed. The protocols lacked detail, including operating characteristics and guidance for decision-making that deviated from the 3 + 3 decision rule and MTD determination. We provide a discussion of the statistical issues associated with each design and operating characteristics for the proposed design compared to alternatives better suited to achieve the aims of each trial. RESULTS: Our results illustrate how operating characteristics inform a design's safety and accuracy. Operating characteristics can unmask poor behavior, such as a high percentage of particiapnts exposed to overly toxic doses, a low probability of correctly identifying the MTD, and inappropriate early study termination. CONCLUSION: Selection of early-phase trial design has significant implications on a trial's ability to meet its objectives. Operating characteristics are a necessary component in the design and review of a protocol, determining if the study's objectives can be achieved and documenting the study's scientific validity. Continued use of outdated approaches due to historical acceptance hinders scientific rigor and the effort to move effective agents through the drug development process.

Consequences of Performing Parallel Dose Finding Trials in Heterogeneous Groups of Patients.

Patient heterogeneity, in which patients can be grouped by risk of toxicity, is a design challenge in early phase dose finding trials. Carrying out independent trials for each group is a readily available approach for dose finding. However, this often leads to dose recommendations that violate the known order of toxicity risk by group, or reversals in dose recommendation. In this manuscript, trials for partially ordered groups are simulated using four approaches: independent parallel trials using the continual reassessment method (CRM), Bayesian optimal interval design, and 3 + 3 methods, as well as CRM for partially ordered groups. Multiple group order structures are considered, allowing for varying amounts of group frailty order information. These simulations find that parallel trials in the presence of partially ordered groups display a high frequency of trials resulting in reversals. Reversals occur when dose recommendations do not follow known order of toxicity risk by group, such as recommending a higher dose level in a group of patients known to have a higher risk of toxicity. CRM for partially ordered groups eliminates the issue of reversals, and simulation results indicate improved frequency of maximum tolerated dose selection as well as treating a greater proportion of trial patients at this dose compared with parallel trials. When information is available on differences in toxicity risk by patient subgroup, methods designed to account for known group ordering should be considered to avoid reversals in dose recommendations and improve operating characteristics.

Shift models for dose-finding in partially ordered groups.

BACKGROUND: Limited options are available for dose-finding clinical trials requiring group-specific dose selection. While conducting parallel trials for groups is an accessible approach to group-specific dose selection, this approach allows for maximum tolerated dose selection that does not align with clinically meaningful group order information. METHODS: The two-stage continual reassessment method is developed for dose-finding in studies involving three or more groups where group frailty order is known between some but not all groups, creating a partial order. This is an extension of the existing continual reassessment method shift model for two ordered groups. This method allows for dose selection by group, where maximum tolerated dose selection follows the known frailty order among groups. For example, if a group is known to be the most frail, the recommended maximum tolerated dose for this group should not exceed the maximum tolerated dose recommended for any other group. RESULTS: With limited alternatives for dose-finding in partially ordered groups, this method is compared to two alternatives: (1) an existing method for dose-finding in partially ordered groups which is less computationally accessible and (2) independent trials for each group using the two-stage continual reassessment method. Simulation studies show that when ignoring information on group frailty, using independent continual reassessment method trials by group, 30% of simulations would result in maximum tolerated dose selection that is out of order between groups. In addition, the two-stage continual reassessment method for partially ordered groups selects the maximum tolerated dose more often and assigns more patients to the maximum tolerated dose compared to using independent continual reassessment method trials within each group. Simulation results for the proposed method and the less computationally accessible approach are similar. CONCLUSION: The proposed continual reassessment method for partially ordered groups ensures appropriate maximum tolerated dose order and improves accuracy of maximum tolerated dose selection, while allowing for trial implementation that is computationally accessible.

Performance of toxicity probability interval based designs in contrast to the continual reassessment method.

Toxicity probability interval designs have received increasing attention as a dose-finding method in recent years. In this study, we compared the two-stage, likelihood-based continual reassessment method (CRM), modified toxicity probability interval (mTPI), and the Bayesian optimal interval design (BOIN) in order to evaluate each method's performance in dose selection for phase I trials. We use several summary measures to compare the performance of these methods, including percentage of correct selection (PCS) of the true maximum tolerable dose (MTD), allocation of patients to doses at and around the true MTD, and an accuracy index. This index is an efficiency measure that describes the entire distribution of MTD selection and patient allocation by taking into account the distance between the true probability of toxicity at each dose level and the target toxicity rate. The simulation study considered a broad range of toxicity curves and various sample sizes. When considering PCS, we found that CRM outperformed the two competing methods in most scenarios, followed by BOIN, then mTPI. We observed a similar trend when considering the accuracy index for dose allocation, where CRM most often outperformed both mTPI and BOIN. These trends were more pronounced with increasing number of dose levels. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effect of water disinfection by-products on pregnancy outcomes in two southeastern US communities.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) during gestation increases the risk of adverse birth outcomes, specifically term small for gestational age (SGA) birth, preterm birth (PTB), and very PTB (<32 weeks' gestation). METHODS: We used weekly measurements total trihalomethanes (TTHMs), five haloacetic acids (HAA5), and total organic halides (TOX) collected from two distribution systems to evaluate the associations between DBP concentrations and term SGA, PTB, and very PTB using logistic regression. RESULTS: We found no associations between DBPs and term-SGA. In the site with higher concentrations of bromine-containing DBPs, we found an association between TOX and PTB; this association was larger, though less precise, for very PTB. CONCLUSIONS: Our results do not support an association between TTHMs or HAA5 and the birth outcomes investigated, but an association was found between increased TOX and PTB.

Bupivacaine injection during midurethral sling and postoperative pain: a randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of retropubic injection of 0.125% bupivacaine during midurethral sling placement on postoperative pain. METHODS: A randomized, double-blind trial of 42 women undergoing midurethral sling for stress incontinence was conducted. The intervention group received an injection of 0.125% bupivacaine in the retropubic space prior to midurethral sling placement, while the control group received no injection. Pain scores were recorded via a 10-cm visual analog scale at 2, 6, and 24 h postoperatively. RESULTS: Pain scores were lower in the bupivacaine group compared to the control group at 2 h (1.9 versus 2.6, p = 0.05). Mean pain scores were similar at all other time points (all p > 0.45). Participants in both groups used similar amounts of pain medication in the hospital, except that patients in the bupivacaine group used more PO non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (p = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS: Retropubic injection of 0.125% bupivacaine at the time of midurethral sling placement decreases short-term postoperative pain.