Risk factors for and impact of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii colonization and infection: matched case-control study.

The objective of this investigation was to identify risk factors for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) and its association with mortality. A population-based matched case-control study using the computerized database of Clalit Health Services (CHS) in the period between 2007 and 2012 was conducted. Hospitalized patients with CRAB colonization or infection were compared to hospitalized patients without evidence of A. baumannii, matched by age, ward of hospitalization, season, Charlson score, and length of hospitalization. Risk factors for CRAB isolation were searched for using multivariate analysis. Association of CRAB and other risk factors with mortality were assessed in the cohort. A total of 1190 patients with CRAB were matched to 1190 patients without CRAB. Low socioeconomic status was independently associated with CRAB isolation and CRAB bacteremia [odds ratio 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-5]. Other risk factors were invasive procedures and bacteremia with other pathogens prior to CRAB isolation, and various comorbidities. Among all patients, CRAB isolation was independently associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio 2.33, 95% CI 2.08-2.6). Socioeconomic status is associated with health outcomes. Our population-based study revealed an almost doubled risk for CRAB in patients at lower socioeconomic status and an association with healthcare exposure. CRAB was associated with mortality and might become a risk indicator for complex morbidity and mortality.

Is the development of falciparum malaria in the human host limited by the availability of uninfected erythrocytes?

BACKGROUND: The development and propagation of malaria parasites in their vertebrate host is a complex process in which various host and parasite factors are involved. Sometimes the evolution of parasitaemia seems to be quelled by parasite load. In order to understand the typical dynamics of evolution of parasitaemia, various mathematical models have been developed. The basic premise ingrained in most models is that the availability of uninfected red blood cells (RBC) in which the parasite develops is a limiting factor in the propagation of the parasite population. PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: We would like to propose that except in extreme cases of severe malaria, there is no limitation in the supply of uninfected RBC for the increase of parasite population. TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: In this analysis we examine the biological attributes of the parasite-infected RBC such as cytoadherence and rosette formation, and the rheological properties of infected RBC, and evaluate their effects on blood flow and clogging of capillaries. We argue that there should be no restriction in the availability of uninfected RBC in patients. IMPLICATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: There is no justification for the insertion of RBC supply as a factor in mathematical models that describe the evolution of parasitaemia in the infected host. Indeed, more recent models, that have not inserted this factor, successfully describe the evolution of parasitaemia in the infected host.

Mathematical modelling of malaria chemotherapy: combining artesunate and mefloquine.

Clinical data on the use of artesunate combined with mefloquine in a variety of treatment regimens and parasite loads in Thailand were modelled on the basis of experimentally determined pharmacokinetic data. The model assumed no pharmacodynamic interaction between artesunate and mefloquine, but that the parasites were already resistant to mefloquine. Predictions of the model accorded well with the data. In articular, in accordance with clinical observations, the model showed that monotherapy with either drug failed to cure at moderate parasitaemia, yet such patients could be treated effectively with the combination of 3 days of artesunate + mefloquine. For high levels of parasitaemia, 5 days of artesunate + mefloquine were needed. Simulations were also performed for situations of lower resistance to mefloquine and for the immune human populations found in Africa. The importance of mathematical modelling of combination therapy is borne out by this study and suggests its wider application for other drug combinations.

Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of the antimalarial activity of mefloquine.

Treatment protocols for the chemotherapy of malaria are usually acquired through clinical trials. Once pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic information becomes available, it is possible to use mathematical modelling for testing these protocols and, possibly, for improving them. In this report the case of monotherapy by mefloquine is analysed. Published pharmacokinetic and clinical results are used to derive the essential model parameters such as kill rate, parasite growth rates, drug sensitivity and the pharmacokinetic parameters. Good agreement is obtained between clinical results and simulated parasite numbers using the derived parameters. It is demonstrated that the 2 exponential kinetics of mefloquine elimination can be reduced to an operational single exponent for pharmacodynamic modelling by educated choice of sampling times of plasma drug concentration. It is deduced that a second drug dose, at a properly chosen time-interval, results in radical cure even when resistant parasites are present and at maximal parasite growth rates such as those found in non-immune patients. Finally, a table is provided for guiding the optimal choice of dosing intervals under different values of population pharmacokinetics, drug resistance and individual immunity parameters.

Mathematical modelling of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum.

The development of malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum is a complex, multi-stage process. It is usually characterized by an exponential growth in the number of parasite-infected erythrocytes, followed by marked oscillations in this number with a period of 48 h, which are eventually dampened. This course of events has been the subject of various mathematical models. In this paper we propose a new mathematical model for the in-host asexual erythrocytic development of P. falciparum malaria. Synchronicity of the infection is shown to be an inherent feature of infection, irrespective of the duration of merozoite release from the liver. It will, therefore, cause periodic symptoms, as known in malaria patients. We also simulate the effects of an induced host immune response and show how the level of immunity affects the development of disease. The simulations fit well with the clinical observations. We show how infection can become asynchronous and discuss the effect of desynchronization on the circulating and total parasitaemia and demonstrate that synchronized broods will show parasitaemia fluctuations.

Mathematical modelling of the chemotherapy of Plasmodium falciparum malaria with artesunate: postulation of 'dormancy', a partial cytostatic effect of the drug, and its implication for treatment regimens.

Although artesunate, one of the potent derivatives of the qinghaosu family of drugs for treating falciparum malaria, is already in use in the field, its therapeutic protocol has only been developed empirically by hit-or-miss. A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model, required for creating such a protocol, is not straightforward. Artesunate presents extremely fast pharmacokinetics. As a result the stage specificity of its action must be treated explicitly. Also, use of standard PK-PD modelling fails to explain the clinical results. Our PK-PD modelling of its activity leads us to the postulation of the existence of a novel effect: a small fraction of the parasites, as a result of chemotherapeutic pressure, become cytostatic, or 'dormant'. At this stage, the parasite cycle is halted, making them unsusceptible to further dosing until wakening. This slows down the antimalarial activity of the drug, entailing either many frequent doses or an extended period of treatment and surveillance. Based on our modelling, we suggest a method for deciding on rational models of chemotherapy against falciparum malaria.

Modelling the chloroquine chemotherapy of falciparum malaria: the value of spacing a split dose.

We have attempted to provide a rational basis for improving the protocols for chemotherapy of malaria. We model the regression of parasitaemia by Plasmodium falciparum, its subsequent elimination from the body, or recrudescence, for populations of cells treated with chloroquine. Our model assumes that drug forms a complex with some receptor in the parasite and that parasites possessing this complex die at a defined rate. We take into account that chloroquine is eliminated exponentially from the body. We show how the parameters of the model can be derived from observations in the field. The model correctly predicts the effects of drug dose, degree of initial parasitaemia, rate of parasite multiplication and degree of drug resistance to chloroquine chemotherapy. The level of parasitaemia will reduce to a minimum at sufficiently high concentrations of chloroquine, but only if the parasitaemia is reduced to below that of 1 parasite per infected person will a cure of malaria be obtained. Otherwise, recrudescence will, sooner or later, occur. We show that, even for drug-resistant malaria, if 2 doses of chloroquine are given to a patient with an interval of some 10 days between them, parasites can be eliminated from the body without toxic levels of chloroquine being reached.