Establishing Infodemic Management in Germany: A Framework for Social Listening and Integrated Analysis to Report Infodemic Insights at the National Public Health Institute.

BACKGROUND: To respond to the need to establish infodemic management functions at the national public health institute in Germany (Robert Koch Institute, RKI), we explored and assessed available data sources, developed a social listening and integrated analysis framework, and defined when infodemic management functions should be activated during emergencies. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to establish a framework for social listening and integrated analysis for public health in the German context using international examples and technical guidance documents for infodemic management. METHODS: This study completed the following objectives: identified (potentially) available data sources for social listening and integrated analysis; assessed these data sources for their suitability and usefulness for integrated analysis in addition to an assessment of their risk using the RKI's standardized data protection requirements; developed a framework and workflow to combine social listening and integrated analysis to report back actionable infodemic insights for public health communications by the RKI and stakeholders; and defined criteria for activating integrated analysis structures in the context of a specific health event or health emergency. RESULTS: We included and classified 38% (16/42) of the identified and assessed data sources for social listening and integrated analysis at the RKI into 3 categories: social media and web-based listening data, RKI-specific data, and infodemic insights. Most data sources can be analyzed weekly to detect current trends and narratives and to inform a timely response by reporting insights that include a risk assessment and scalar judgments of different narratives and themes. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified, assessed, and prioritized a wide range of data sources for social listening and integrated analysis to report actionable infodemic insights, ensuring a valuable first step in establishing and operationalizing infodemic management at the RKI. This case study also serves as a roadmap for others. Ultimately, once operational, these activities will inform better and targeted public health communication at the RKI and beyond.

Monitoring the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Prevalence of Antibodies in a Large, Repetitive Cross-Sectional Study of Blood Donors in Germany-Results from the SeBluCo Study 2020-2022.

SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance is important to adapt infection control measures and estimate the degree of underreporting. Blood donor samples can be used as a proxy for the healthy adult population. In a repeated cross-sectional study from April 2020 to April 2021, September 2021, and April/May 2022, 13 blood establishments collected 134,510 anonymised specimens from blood donors in 28 study regions across Germany. These were tested for antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and nucleocapsid, including neutralising capacity. Seroprevalence was adjusted for test performance and sampling and weighted for demographic differences between the sample and the general population. Seroprevalence estimates were compared to notified COVID-19 cases. The overall adjusted SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence remained below 2% until December 2020 and increased to 18.1% in April 2021, 89.4% in September 2021, and to 100% in April/May 2022. Neutralising capacity was found in 74% of all positive specimens until April 2021 and in 98% in April/May 2022. Our serosurveillance allowed for repeated estimations of underreporting from the early stage of the pandemic onwards. Underreporting ranged between factors 5.1 and 1.1 in the first two waves of the pandemic and remained well below 2 afterwards, indicating an adequate test strategy and notification system in Germany.

Anti-HBc screening - is it worth the effort? Results of a 10-year surveillance programme covering more than 30 million donations in Germany.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Antibodies to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc) testing were added to hepatitis surface antigen (HBsAg) screening in Germany in 2006 to prevent hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmissions by chronically infected donors. We report the results of a national surveillance of anti-HBc-reactive and HBsAg-negative donations and assess the resulting gain in blood safety and the donor loss. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Donations were tested for anti-HBc, and if reactive, by sensitive individual donation nucleic acid testing (ID-NAT) and for antibodies to HBsAg (anti-HBs). Data from the national anti-HBc surveillance from 2006 to 2015 determined the proportion of anti-HBc-reactive donations stratified for donor type, sex, anti-HBs concentration and NAT-positivity. Donor loss due to anti-HBc-reactive results was quantified. RESULTS: Of 31 562 556 donations screened, 70 671 were anti-HBc reactive but HBsAg negative (0.22%). The proportion of repeat donors with these test results decreased significantly from 0.25% in 2007 to 0.08% in 2015. In the entire study period, 82 HBV-NAT-positive donations were identified. Of these, 47 donations were only identified by ID-NAT. A total of 54 203 anti-HBc-reactive units were discarded either due to possible infectiousness (NAT positive or anti-HBs concentration <100 IU/l) or because no further testing was performed. CONCLUSION: Anti-HBc screening has improved blood safety in Germany. HBV-NAT-positive donations were identified after ID-NAT was triggered by the initial reactive anti-HBc result. The observed loss of donations was sustainable for maintaining an adequate blood supply in Germany.

Good Feasibility of the New German Blood Donor Questionnaire.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the effect of the uniform donor questionnaire (UDQ) on deferral rates in first-time and repeat donors. We focused on the introduced question about unprotected sexual contact with a new partner. Another goal was a stratified comparison of the deferral rates of the donor questionnaire (DQ) and UDQ. METHODS: Data on donors and deferrals using the DQ and UDQ were collected at four blood establishments. The comparison included a 2-year period by questionnaire version. For the comparison of the questionnaires, an adjusted multinomial logistic regression was performed. RESULTS: The analysis included 260,848 donations. First-time (FTD) and repeat donations (RD) showed higher deferral rates with the UDQ (FTD +5.4%, RD +1.4%). Deferral due to a new partner was 3.0% in first-time and 0.4% in repeat donors. The majority of these occurred in the youngest age groups. The most frequent deferral criterion was 'disease' (5.1%). CONCLUSION: The regression revealed stronger predictors for deferral than the questionnaire version. Especially younger age carried a higher and independent risk for deferral. The additional deferrals of mainly young first-time donors due to a new sexual partner may identify those donors with potential heterosexual risk behavior who would otherwise not be identified.

The risk of AIDS-defining events is decreasing over time in the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort.

BACKGROUND: With ageing of the HIV-infected population, long-term exposure to treatment, varying adherence, emerging resistance and complications to therapies, effectiveness of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) needs to be monitored continuously at the population level. The German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort is a multi-centre, open, long-term observational cohort including patients with a known or reliably estimated date of HIV-infection i.e. last negative and first positive HIV antibody test within a maximum three-year interval or laboratory evidence of seroconversion. Our study aims to investigate survival improvements and changes in AIDS risk over calendar periods in the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort. METHODS: Retrospective (for the pre-1997 period) and prospective (since 1997) data from the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort were used. Time from seroconversion to first AIDS-defining event over calendar periods was analysed by using Cox models adjusting for age at seroconversion, sex, transmission groups and short HIV test interval. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to determine expected survival (remaining AIDS-free) by calendar period. RESULTS: 2162 seroconverters with 8976 person-years of observation were included in our analysis (up to 31.12.2010). A total of 196 first AIDS defining events were reported. Two periods i.e. 19972000 and 2007-2010 were statistically associated with a reduction in the risk of AIDS, accounting for an overall reduction of 80%. Compared to1997-2000, hazard ratios were 2.6 (95%CI, 1.6-4.8; p=0.000) in pre-1997 and 0.5 (95%CI, 0.3-0.8; p=0.007) in 20072010. Independent risk factor for AIDS progression was age at seroconversion (HR, 1.3 per 10 year-increase; p=0.001). CONCLUSION: HAART effectiveness has improved in the German HIV-1-Seroconverter Cohort. The risk to develop AIDS decreased significantly in 19972000 and in 20072010. However, elderly may require particular monitoring in view of their faster progression to AIDS.

Prevalence of transmitted drug resistance and impact of transmitted resistance on treatment success in the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to analyse the prevalence of transmitted drug resistance, TDR, and the impact of TDR on treatment success in the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort. METHODS: Genotypic resistance analysis was performed in treatment-naïve study patients whose sample was available 1,312/1,564 (83.9% October 2008). A genotypic resistance result was obtained for 1,276/1,312 (97.3%). The resistance associated mutations were identified according to the surveillance drug resistance mutations list recommended for drug-naïve patients. Treatment success was determined as viral suppression below 500 copies/ml. RESULTS: Prevalence of TDR was stable at a high level between 1996 and 2007 in the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort (N = 158/1,276; 12.4%; CI(wilson) 10.7-14.3; p(for trend) = 0.25). NRTI resistance was predominant (7.5%) but decreased significantly over time (CI(Wilson): 6.2-9.1, p(for trend) = 0.02). NNRTI resistance tended to increase over time (NNRTI: 3.5%; CI(Wilson): 2.6-4.6; p(for trend)= 0.07), whereas PI resistance remained stable (PI: 3.0%; CI(Wilson): 2.1-4.0; p(for trend) = 0.24). Resistance to all drug classes was frequently caused by singleton resistance mutations (NRTI 55.6%, PI 68.4%, NNRTI 99.1%). The majority of NRTI-resistant strains (79.8%) carried resistance-associated mutations selected by the thymidine analogues zidovudine and stavudine. Preferably 2NRTI/1PIr combinations were prescribed as first line regimen in patients with resistant HIV as well as in patients with susceptible strains (susceptible 45.3%; 173/382 vs. resistant 65.5%; 40/61). The majority of patients in both groups were treated successfully within the first year after ART-initiation (susceptible: 89.9%; 62/69; resistant: 7/9; 77.8%). CONCLUSION: Overall prevalence of TDR remained stable at a high level but trends of resistance against drug classes differed over time. The significant decrease of NRTI-resistance in patients newly infected with HIV might be related to the introduction of novel antiretroviral drugs and a wider use of genotypic resistance analysis prior to treatment initiation.

Time trends of syphilis and HSV-2 co-infection among men who have sex with men in the German HIV-1 seroconverter cohort from 1996-2007.

OBJECTIVES: Numbers of newly diagnosed HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Germany increased after the year 2000. We sought to explore trends in STI co-infections around the time of HIV seroconversion in patients from the German HIV-1 seroconverter cohort from 1996-2007. METHODS: MSM from the cohort were included for secondary analysis, if seroconversion occurred between 1996 and 2007 and if a blood sample taken within 2 y after HIV infection was available for further testing. Samples were tested for antibodies against Treponema pallidum and HSV-2. A classification system was developed to assign the chronology of syphilis and HIV-1 infection. RESULTS: Data of 1052 MSM were eligible for analysis. Overall seroprevalence of syphilis markers was 26%, increasing from 10% (1996-1999) to 35% (2005). Among HIV seroconverters with positive syphilis antibodies, 32% (n=88) were rated as having had coincident infections with HIV and syphilis. Coincident syphilis infection at HIV diagnosis increased substantially (p<0.001) from 2.3% in 2000 to 16.9% in 2003; and thereafter declined to 4.3% in 2007. Mean HSV-2 antibody prevalence was 40.5%, mean anti-HSV-2 IgM prevalence was 11.2%, with no significant change over time. DISCUSSION: We found a stable prevalence of HSV-2 infection and increasing prevalence of syphilis infection around the time of HIV acquisition among MSM in Germany. Time course and rate of co-infections suggest that a re-emerging syphilis co-epidemic among MSM after 2000 could have contributed to an increase of HIV incidence by enhancing HIV transmission probability.