An agent-based model that simulates the spatio-temporal dynamics of sources and transfer mechanisms contributing faecal indicator organisms to streams. Part 1: Background and model description.

A new Model for the Agent-based simulation of Faecal Indicator Organisms (MAFIO) is developed that attempts to overcome limitations in existing faecal indicator organism (FIO) models arising from coarse spatial discretisations and poorly-constrained hydrological processes. MAFIO is a spatially-distributed, process-based model presently designed to simulate the fate and transport of agents representing FIOs shed by livestock at the sub-field scale in small (<10 km2) agricultural catchments. Specifically, FIO loading, die-off, detachment, surface routing, seepage and channel routing are modelled on a regular spatial grid. Central to MAFIO is that hydrological transfer mechanisms are simulated based on a hydrological environment generated by an external model for which it is possible to robustly determine the accuracy of simulated catchment hydrological functioning. The spatially-distributed, tracer-aided ecohydrological model EcH2O-iso is highlighted as a possible hydrological environment generator. The present paper provides a rationale for and description of MAFIO, whilst a companion paper applies the model in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland to provide a proof-of-concept.

An agent-based model that simulates the spatio-temporal dynamics of sources and transfer mechanisms contributing faecal indicator organisms to streams. Part 2: Application to a small agricultural catchment.

The new Model for the Agent-based simulation of Faecal Indicator Organisms (MAFIO) is applied to a small (0.42 km2) Scottish agricultural catchment to simulate the dynamics of E. coli arising from sheep and cattle farming, in order to provide a proof-of-concept. The hydrological environment for MAFIO was simulated by the "best" ensemble run of the tracer-aided ecohydrological model EcH2O-iso, obtained through multi-criteria calibration to stream discharge (MAE: 1.37 L s-1) and spatially-distributed stable isotope data (MAE: 1.14-3.02‰) for the period April-December 2017. MAFIO was then applied for the period June-August for which twice-weekly E. coli loads were quantified at up to three sites along the stream. Performance in simulating these data suggested the model has skill in capturing the transfer of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) from livestock to streams via the processes of direct deposition, transport in overland flow and seepage from areas of degraded soil. Furthermore, its agent-based structure allowed source areas, transfer mechanisms and host animals contributing FIOs to the stream to be quantified. Such information is likely to have substantial value in the context of designing and spatially-targeting mitigation measures against impaired microbial water quality. This study also revealed, however, that avenues exist for improving process conceptualisation in MAFIO (e.g. to include FIO contributions from wildlife) and highlighted the need to quantitatively assess how uncertainty in the spatial extent of surface flow paths in the simulated hydrological environment may affect FIO simulations. Despite the consequent status of MAFIO as a research-level model, its encouraging performance in this proof-of-concept study suggests the model has significant potential for eventual incorporation into decision support frameworks.

Risk assessments for quality-assured, source-segregated composts and anaerobic digestates for a circular bioeconomy in the UK.

A circular economy relies on demonstrating the quality and environmental safety of wastes that are recovered and reused as products. Policy-level risk assessments, using generalised exposure scenarios, and informed by stakeholder communities have been used to appraise the acceptability of necessary changes to legislation, allowing wastes to be valued, reused and marketed. Through an extensive risk assessment exercise, summarised in this paper, we explore the burden of proof required to offer safety assurance to consumer and brand-sensitive food sectors in light of attempts to declassify, as wastes, quality-assured, source-segregated compost and anaerobic digestate products in the United Kingdom. We report the residual microbiological and chemical risks estimated for both products in land application scenarios and discuss these in the context of an emerging UK bioeconomy worth £52bn per annum. Using plausible worst case assumptions, as demanded by the quality food sector, risk estimates and hazard quotients were estimated to be low or negligible. For example, the human health risk of E. coli 0157 illness from exposure to microbial residuals in quality-assured composts, through a ready-to-eat vegetable consumption exposure route, was estimated at ~10-8 per person per annum. For anaerobic digestion residues, 7 × 10-3cases of E. coli 0157 were estimated per annum, a potential contribution of 0.0007% of total UK cases. Hazard quotients for potential chemical contaminants in both products were insufficient in magnitude to merit detailed quantitative risk assessments. Stakeholder engagement and expert review was also a substantive feature of this study. We conclude that quality-assured, source-segregated products applied to land, under UK quality protocols and waste processing standards, pose negligible risks to human, animal, environmental and crop receptors, providing that risk management controls set within the standards and protocols are adhered to.

A risk-based approach for developing standards for irrigation with reclaimed water.

A generalised quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is developed to assess the potential harm to human health resulting from irrigation with reclaimed water. The QRA is conducted as a backward calculation starting from a pre-defined acceptable risk level at the receptor point (defined as an annual infection risk of 10-4 for pathogens and by reference doses (RfD) for chemical hazards) and results in an estimate of the corresponding acceptable concentration levels of the given hazards in the effluent. In this way the QRA is designed to inform the level of water treatment required to achieve an acceptable risk level and help establish reclaimed water quality standards. The QRA considers the exposure of human receptors to microbial and chemical hazards in the effluent through various exposure pathways and routes depending on the specific irrigation scenario. By considering multiple pathways and routes, a number of key aspects relevant to estimating human exposure to recycled water can be accounted for, including irrigation and crop handling practices (e.g., non-edible vs edible, spray vs. drip, withholding time) and volumes consumed (directly vs indirectly). The QRA relies on a large number of inputs, many of which were found to be highly uncertain. A possibilistic approach, based on fuzzy set theory, was used to propagate the uncertain input values through the QRA model to estimate the possible range of hazard concentrations that are deemed acceptable/safe for reclaimed water irrigation. Two scenarios were considered: amenity irrigation and irrigation of ready-to-eat food crops, and calculations were carried out for six example hazards (norovirus, Cryptosporidium, cadmium, lead, PCB118 and naphthalene) and using UK-specific input values. The human health risks associated with using reclaimed water for amenity irrigation were overall deemed low, i.e. the calculated acceptable concentration levels for most of the selected hazards were generally far greater than levels typically measured in effluent from wastewater treatment plants; however the predicted acceptable concentration levels for norovirus and Cryptosporidium suggested that disinfection by UV may be required before use. It was found that stricter concentration standards were required for hazards that are more strongly bound to soil and/or are more toxic/infectious. It was also found that measures that reduce the amount of effluent directly ingested by the receptor would significantly reduce the risks (by up to 2 orders of magnitude for the two pathogens). The results for the food crop irrigation scenario showed that stricter concentration standards are required to ensure the effluent is safe to use. For pathogens, the dominant exposure route was found to be ingestion of effluent captured on the surface of the crops indicating that risks could be significantly reduced by restricting irrigation to the non-edible parts of the crop. The results also showed that the exposure to some organic compounds and heavy metals through plant uptake and attached soil particles could be high and possibly pose unacceptable risk to human health. For both scenarios, we show that the predicted acceptable concentration levels are associated with large uncertainty and discuss the implications this has for defining quality standards and how the uncertainty can be reduced.

Evaluation of spot and passive sampling for monitoring, flux estimation and risk assessment of pesticides within the constraints of a typical regulatory monitoring scheme.

In many agricultural catchments of Europe and North America, pesticides occur at generally low concentrations with significant temporal variation. This poses several challenges for both monitoring and understanding ecological risks/impacts of these chemicals. This study aimed to compare the performance of passive and spot sampling strategies given the constraints of typical regulatory monitoring. Nine pesticides were investigated in a river currently undergoing regulatory monitoring (River Ugie, Scotland). Within this regulatory framework, spot and passive sampling were undertaken to understand spatiotemporal occurrence, mass loads and ecological risks. All the target pesticides were detected in water by both sampling strategies. Chlorotoluron was observed to be the dominant pesticide by both spot (maximum: 111.8ng/l, mean: 9.35ng/l) and passive sampling (maximum: 39.24ng/l, mean: 4.76ng/l). The annual pesticide loads were estimated to be 2735g and 1837g based on the spot and passive sampling data, respectively. The spatiotemporal trend suggested that agricultural activities were the primary source of the compounds with variability in loads explained in large by timing of pesticide applications and rainfall. The risk assessment showed chlorotoluron and chlorpyrifos posed the highest ecological risks with 23% of the chlorotoluron spot samples and 36% of the chlorpyrifos passive samples resulting in a Risk Quotient greater than 0.1. This suggests that mitigation measures might need to be taken to reduce the input of pesticides into the river. The overall comparison of the two sampling strategies supported the hypothesis that passive sampling tends to integrate the contaminants over a period of exposure and allows quantification of contamination at low concentration. The results suggested that within a regulatory monitoring context passive sampling was more suitable for flux estimation and risk assessment of trace contaminants which cannot be diagnosed by spot sampling and for determining if long-term average concentrations comply with specified standards.

A study on temporal trends and estimates of fate of Bisphenol A in agricultural soils after sewage sludge amendment.

Temporal concentration trends of BPA in soils were investigated following sewage sludge application to pasture (study 1: short term sludge application; study 2: long term multiple applications over 13 years). The background levels of BPA in control soils were similar, ranging between 0.67-10.57 ng g(-1) (mean: 3.02 ng g(-1)) and 0.51-6.58 ng g(-1) (mean: 3.22 ng g(-1)) for studies 1 and 2, respectively. Concentrations in both treated and control plots increased over the earlier sampling times of the study to a maximum and then decreased over later sampling times, suggesting other sources of BPA to both the treated and control soils over the study period. In study 1 there was a significant treatment effect of sludge application in the autumn (p=0.002) although no significant difference was observed between treatment and control soils in the spring. In study 2 treated soils contained considerably higher BPA concentrations than controls ranging between 12.89-167.9 ng g(-1) (mean: 63.15 ng g(-1)). This and earlier studies indicate the long-term accumulation of multiple contaminants by multiple sewage sludge applications over a prolonged period although the effects of the presence of such contaminant mixtures have not yet been elucidated. Fugacity modelling was undertaken to estimate partitioning of Bisphenol A (soil plus sewage: pore water: soil air partitioning) and potential uptake into a range of food crops. While Bisphenol A sorbs strongly to the sewage-amended soil, 4% by mass was predicted to enter soil pore water resulting in significant uptake by crops particularly leafy vegetables (3.12-75.5 ng g(-1)), but also for root crops (1.28-31.0 ng g(-1)) with much lower uptake into cereal grains (0.62-15.0 ng g(-1)). This work forms part of a larger programme of research aimed at assessing the risks associated with the long-term application of sewage sludge to agricultural soils.

Environmental risk factors in the incidence of Johne's disease.

This review addresses the survival and persistence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the causative pathogen of Johne's disease (JD), once it has left its ruminant host. JD has significant economic impact on dairy, beef and sheep industries and is difficult to control due to the long-term sub-clinical nature of the infection, intermittent or persistent MAP shedding during and after this period, inadequate test effectiveness, and the potential for MAP to exist for extended periods outside the host. The role that environmental factors play in the persistence and spread of MAP and consequent disease is assessed. Published risk factor analysis, organism survival across various environmental media and conditions, presence and spread in ruminant and non-ruminant wildlife, and the general potential for survival and multiplication of MAP ex-host both on and off-farm are discussed and knowledge gaps highlighted. An inclusive approach to disease management that takes into account the persistence and transport of the causative organism in on-farm soils and waters, land use and management, dispersal by domestic and non-domestic host species, as well as general animal husbandry is required on those farms where more traditional approaches to disease management have failed to reduce disease prevalence.

Early-life residential exposure to soil components in rural areas and childhood respiratory health and allergy.

The increase in asthma and allergies has been attributed to declining exposure to environmental microorganisms. The main source of these is soil, the composition of which varies geographically and which is a major component (40-45%) of household dust. Our hypothesis-generating study aimed to investigate associations between soil components, respiratory health and allergy in a Scottish birth cohort. The cohort was recruited in utero in 1997/8, and followed up at one, two and five years for the development of wheezing, asthma and eczema. Lung function, exhaled nitric oxide and allergic sensitization were measured at age five in a subset. The Scottish Soils Database held at The James Hutton Institute was linked to the birth cohort data by the residential postcode at birth and five years. The soil database contained information on size separates, organic matter concentration, pH and a range of inorganic elements. Soil and clinical outcome data were available for 869, 790 and 727 children at one, two and five years. Three hundred and fifty nine (35%) of children had the same address at birth and five years. No associations were found between childhood outcomes and soil content in the residential area at age five. The soil silt content (2-20 µm particle size) of the residential area at birth was associated with childhood wheeze (adjusted OR 1.20, 95% CI [1.05; 1.37]), wheeze without a cold (1.41 [1.18; 1.69]), doctor-diagnosed asthma (1.54 [1.04; 2.28]), lung function (FEV1: beta -0.025 [-0.047;-0.001]) and airway inflammation (FENO: beta 0.15 [0.03; 0.27]) at age five, but not with allergic status or eczema. Whilst residual confounding is the most likely explanation for the associations reported, the results of this study lead us to hypothesise that early life exposure to residential soil silt may adversely influence childhood respiratory health, possibly because of the organic components of silt.

Prevalence and survival of potential pathogens in source-segregated green waste compost.

Composting of source-separated green waste (SSGW) is essential to meet the EU Landfill Directive target and agricultural land is considered a significant market for the resulting composts. A critical review of the literature was performed to evaluate the potential for pathogens to enter the composting process via SSGW feedstocks and the likelihood of their survival of the composting process and subsequent application to land. This is discussed in the context of application of other organic wastes to land. It was concluded that zoonoses such as verotoxigenic Escherichia coli and Salmonella spp. are unlikely to survive and effective composting process, whereas spore forming organisms are more resistant to composting but are also ubiquitous in the environment. Adherence to existing guidelines, such as those for farm yard manures, is likely to provide a rational degree of health protection for humans and livestock.

Risk assessment of the use of PAS100 green composts in sheep and cattle production in Scotland.

A generalized quantitative risk assessment for the use of source-segregated green waste (SSGW) compost use in livestock production is presented. This assessment focussed on potential risks associated with a specific product, PAS100 compost that meets the UK publicly available specification 100 and represents the majority of compost available for use in extensive Scottish livestock systems. A hazard screening approach was used to identify all potentially hazardous agents present in compost. A total of 497 potentially hazardous agents were screened, with 147 finally put forward for quantitative risk assessment. Scenarios modelled in the assessment included surface application of compost to grazing land and also incorporation into soil and subsequent uptake by fodder crops. Risk estimates were compared to those associated with six comparator materials, including various sludges, slurries and farm yard manures. Overall, five potentially hazardous agents (PCB28, PCB138, PCB153, 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD, Clopyralid) returned a hazard quotient >1 but within margins of uncertainty, indicating that further investigation may be required. Within the limitations of available information, SSGW compost was found to pose less risk to grazing livestock, or the environment, than other commonly-used soil amendments. While this assessment relates to a specific product/standard used in the UK, the methodology could easily be applied to other composts/products/situations. Therefore these results have wider applicability.

Degradation of yew, ragwort and rhododendron toxins during composting.

Recent concerns have been raised that plants such as ragwort (Senecio jacobaea), yew (Taxus baccata) and rhododendron (Rhododendron ponticum) that are toxic to livestock may be included in compost windrows but may not be fully detoxified by the composting process. This study investigates the decomposition during composting of toxic pyrrolizidine alkaloids present in ragwort, taxines (A and B) present in yew, and grayanotoxins (GTX I, II, and III) present in rhododendron during composting. Plant samples were contained within microporous bags either towards the edge or within the centre of a pilot-scale compost heap. They were destructively harvested at regular intervals over 1200 degrees C cumulative temperature (about three months). Samples were analysed for levels of toxins by liquid chromatography time of flight mass spectrometry (LC-TOF-MS). Pyrrolizidine alkaloids and taxines were shown to degrade completely during the composting process. While GTX I showed significant reductions, concentrations of GTX III remained unchanged after 1200 degrees C cumulative temperature. However, estimates of exposure to grazing livestock coming into contact with source-segregated green waste compost containing up to 7% rhododendron suggest that GTX III poses no appreciable risk.

Exposure assessment of carcass disposal options in the event of a notifiable exotic animal disease: application to avian influenza virus.

We present a generalized exposure assessment of 28 disposal options for poultry carcasses in the event of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak. The analysis supports a hereto unverified disposal hierarchy for animal carcasses, placing waste processing (e.g., incineration and rendering) above controlled disposal (e.g., landfill), above uncontrolled disposal (e.g., burial on-farm). We illustrate that early stages of the disposal chain (on-farm) pose greater opportunities for exposure to hazardous agents than later stages, where agents are generally contained, wastes are treated, and residues are managed by regulated processes. In selecting carcass disposal options, practitioners are advised to consider the full range of hazards rather than focusing solely on the HPAI agent, and to give preference to technologies that (i) offer high destruction efficiencies for target pathogens; (ii) do not give rise to significant releases of other pathogenic organisms; and (iii) do not release unacceptable concentrations of toxic chemicals. The approach offers an exposure assessment perspective for carcass disposal, thus providing a risk-informed basis for contingency planning and operational intervention. The authors recognize that relevant legislation, public perception, available capacity, and cost also need to be considered when selecting disposal options in the event of HPAI.

Fugacity modelling to predict the distribution of organic contaminants in the soil:oil matrix of constructed biopiles.

Level I and II fugacity approaches were used to model the environmental distribution of benzene, anthracene, phenanthrene, 1-methylphenanthrene and benzo[a]pyrene in a four phase biopile system, accounting for air, water, mineral soil and non-aqueous phase liquid (oil) phase. The non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) and soil phases were the dominant partition media for the contaminants in each biopile and the contaminants differed markedly in their individual fugacities. Comparison of three soils with different percentage of organic carbon (% org C) showed that the % org C influenced contaminant partitioning behaviour. While benzene showed an aqueous concentration worthy of note for leachate control during biopiling, other organic chemicals showed that insignificant amount of chemicals leached into the water, greatly reducing the potential extent of groundwater contamination. Level II fugacity model showed that degradation was the dominant removal process except for benzene. In all three biopile systems, the rate of degradation of benzo(a)pyrene was low, requiring more than 12 years for soil concentrations from a spill of about 25 kg (100 mol) to be reduced to a concentration of 0.001 microgg(-1). The removal time of 1-methylphenanthrene and either anthracene or phenanthrene was about 1 and 3 years, respectively. In contrast, benzene showed the highest degradation rate and was removed after 136 days in all biopile systems. Overall, this study confirms the association of risk critical contaminants with the residual saturation in treated soils and reinforces the importance of accounting for the partitioning behaviour of both NAPL and soil phases during the risk assessment of oil-contaminated sites.

Evaluating fugacity models for trace components in landfill gas.

A fugacity approach was evaluated to reconcile loadings of vinyl chloride (chloroethene), benzene, 1,3-butadiene and trichloroethylene in waste with concentrations observed in landfill gas monitoring studies. An evaluative environment derived from fictitious but realistic properties such as volume, composition, and temperature, constructed with data from the Brogborough landfill (UK) test cells was used to test a fugacity approach to generating the source term for use in landfill gas risk assessment models (e.g. GasSim). SOILVE, a dynamic Level II model adapted here for landfills, showed greatest utility for benzene and 1,3-butadiene, modelled under anaerobic conditions over a 10 year simulation. Modelled concentrations of these components (95,300 microg m(-3); 43 microg m(-3)) fell within measured ranges observed in gas from landfills (24,300-180,000 microg m(-3); 20-70 microg m(-3)). This study highlights the need (i) for representative and time-referenced biotransformation data; (ii) to evaluate the partitioning characteristics of organic matter within waste systems and (iii) for a better understanding of the role that gas extraction rate (flux) plays in producing trace component concentrations in landfill gas.

Assessing and communicating risk with communities living on contaminated land.

The U.K. government has emphasized redeveloping derelict land for housing. As a result, tools for assessing brownfield sites are well developed. However, there are many potentially contaminated sites on which people live, often not to the people's knowledge. For these situations, statutory guidance for risk communication is underdeveloped and, in certain situations, inadequate. This paper illustrates limitations of current methods using a heavily populated site where levels of specific contaminants exceed statutory limits. The authors describe how residents were involved in the site assessment process and how the process may be improved, and propose a framework to incorporate risk communication into the contaminated-land use strategy.

Identifying source correlation parameters for hydrocarbon wastes using compound-specific isotope analysis.

A preliminary evaluation of compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) as a novel, alternative method for identifying source correlation compounds in soils contaminated with residual heavy or weathered petroleum wastes is presented. Oil-contaminated soil microcosms were established using soil (sandy-loam, non-carbonaceous cley) amended with ballast-, crude- or No.6 fuel oil. Microcosms were periodically sampled over 256 days and delta(13)C values (which express the ratio of (13)C to (12)C) determined at each time point for five n-alkanes and the isoprenoid norpristane using gas chromatography-isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-IRMS). Although some temporal variation was observed, no significant temporal shifts in the delta(13)C values for the five n-alkanes were measured in all three oils. Isoprenoid isotope ratios (delta(13)C) appeared to be least affected by biotransformation, especially in the No.6 fuel oil. The research suggests that the delta(13)C of isoprenoids such as norpristane, may be of use as source correlation parameters.

Assessing potential risk of heavy metal exposure from consumption of home-produced vegetables by urban populations.

We performed a risk assessment of metal exposure to population subgroups living on, and growing food on, urban sites. We modeled uptake of cadmium, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc for a selection of commonly grown allotment and garden vegetables. Generalized linear cross-validation showed that final predictions of Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn content of food crops were satisfactory, whereas the Pb uptake models were less robust. We used predicted concentrations of metals in the vegetables to assess the risk of exposure to human populations from homegrown food sources. Risks from other exposure pathways (consumption of commercially produced foodstuffs, dust inhalation, and soil ingestion) were also estimated. These models were applied to a geochemical database of an urban conurbation in the West Midlands, United Kingdom. Risk, defined as a "hazard index," was mapped for three population subgroups: average person, highly exposed person, and the highly exposed infant (assumed to be a 2-year-old child). The results showed that food grown on 92% of the urban area presented minimal risk to the average person subgroup. However, more vulnerable population subgroups (highly exposed person and the highly exposed infant) were subject to hazard index values greater than unity. This study highlights the importance of site-specific risk assessment and the "suitable for use" approach to urban redevelopment.