Negative relationships between species richness and temporal variability are common but weak in natural systems.

Effects of species diversity on population and community stability (or more precisely, the effects of species richness on temporal variability) have been studied for several decades, but there have been no large-scale tests in natural communities of predictions from theory. We used 91 data sets including plants, fish, small mammals, zooplankton, birds, and insects, to examine the relationship between species richness and temporal variability in populations and communities. Seventy-eight of 91 data sets showed a negative relationship between species richness and population variability; 46 of these relationships were statistically significant. Only five of the 13 positive richness-population variability relationships were statistically significant. Similarly, 51 of 91 data sets showed a negative relationship between species richness and community variability; of these, 26 were statistically significant. Seven of the 40 positive richness-community-variability relationships were statistically significant. We were able to test transferability (i.e., the predictive ability of models for sites that are spatially distinct from sites that were used to build the models) for 69 of 91 data sets; 35 and 31 data sets were transferable at the population and community levels, respectively. Only four were positive at the population level, and two at the community level. We conclude that there is compelling evidence of a negative relationship between species richness and temporal variability for about one-half of the ecological communities we examined. However, species richness explained relatively little of the variability in population or community abundances and resulted in small improvements in predictive ability.

Optimal alpha reduces error rates in gene expression studies: a meta-analysis approach.

BACKGROUND: Transcriptomic approaches (microarray and RNA-seq) have been a tremendous advance for molecular science in all disciplines, but they have made interpretation of hypothesis testing more difficult because of the large number of comparisons that are done within an experiment. The result has been a proliferation of techniques aimed at solving the multiple comparisons problem, techniques that have focused primarily on minimizing Type I error with little or no concern about concomitant increases in Type II errors. We have previously proposed a novel approach for setting statistical thresholds with applications for high throughput omics-data, optimal α, which minimizes the probability of making either error (i.e. Type I or II) and eliminates the need for post-hoc adjustments. RESULTS: A meta-analysis of 242 microarray studies extracted from the peer-reviewed literature found that current practices for setting statistical thresholds led to very high Type II error rates. Further, we demonstrate that applying the optimal α approach results in error rates as low or lower than error rates obtained when using (i) no post-hoc adjustment, (ii) a Bonferroni adjustment and (iii) a false discovery rate (FDR) adjustment which is widely used in transcriptome studies. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that optimal α can reduce error rates associated with transcripts in both microarray and RNA-seq experiments, but point out that improved statistical techniques alone cannot solve the problems associated with high throughput datasets - these approaches need to be coupled with improved experimental design that considers larger sample sizes and/or greater study replication.

Effects of the glyphosate-based herbicide Roundup WeatherMax® on metamorphosis of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in natural wetlands.

Amphibian tadpoles develop in aquatic environments where they are susceptible to the effects of pesticides and other environmental contaminants. Glyphosate-based herbicides are currently the most commonly used herbicide in the world and have been shown to affect survival and development of tadpoles under laboratory and mesocosm conditions. In the present study, whole wetland manipulations were used to determine if exposure to an agriculturally relevant application of Roundup WeatherMax(®), a herbicide formulation containing the potassium salt of glyphosate and an undisclosed surfactant, influences the development of wood frog tadpoles (Lithobates sylvaticus) under natural conditions. Wetlands were divided in half with an impermeable curtain so that each wetland contained a treatment and control side. Tadpoles were exposed to two pulses of this herbicide at an environmentally realistic concentration (ERC, 0.21 mg acid equivalent (a.e.)/L) and the predicted maximum environmental concentration (PMEC, 2.89 mg a.e./L), after which abundance, growth, development, and mRNA levels of genes involved in tadpole metamorphosis were measured. Results present little evidence that exposure to this herbicide affects abundance, growth and development of wood frog tadpoles. As part of the Long-term Experimental Wetlands Area (LEWA) project, this research demonstrates that typical agricultural use of Roundup WeatherMax(®) poses minimal risk to larval amphibian development. However, our gene expression data (mRNA levels) suggests that glyphosate-based herbicides have the potential to alter hormonal pathways during tadpole development.

Compensatory dynamics are rare in natural ecological communities.

In population ecology, there has been a fundamental controversy about the relative importance of competition-driven (density-dependent) population regulation vs. abiotic influences such as temperature and precipitation. The same issue arises at the community level; are population sizes driven primarily by changes in the abundances of cooccurring competitors (i.e., compensatory dynamics), or do most species have a common response to environmental factors? Competitive interactions have had a central place in ecological theory, dating back to Gleason, Volterra, Hutchison and MacArthur, and, more recently, Hubbell's influential unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography. If competitive interactions are important in driving year-to-year fluctuations in abundance, then changes in the abundance of one species should generally be accompanied by compensatory changes in the abundances of others. Thus, one necessary consequence of strong compensatory forces is that, on average, species within communities will covary negatively. Here we use measures of community covariance to assess the prevalence of negative covariance in 41 natural communities comprising different taxa at a range of spatial scales. We found that species in natural communities tended to covary positively rather than negatively, the opposite of what would be expected if compensatory dynamics were important. These findings suggest that abiotic factors such as temperature and precipitation are more important than competitive interactions in driving year-to-year fluctuations in species abundance within communities.

Quantitative evidence for global amphibian population declines.

Although there is growing concern that amphibian populations are declining globally, much of the supporting evidence is either anecdotal or derived from short-term studies at small geographical scales. This raises questions not only about the difficulty of detecting temporal trends in populations which are notoriously variable, but also about the validity of inferring global trends from local or regional studies. Here we use data from 936 populations to assess large-scale temporal and spatial variations in amphibian population trends. On a global scale, our results indicate relatively rapid declines from the late 1950s/early 1960s to the late 1960s, followed by a reduced rate of decline to the present. Amphibian population trends during the 1960s were negative in western Europe (including the United Kingdom) and North America, but only the latter populations showed declines from the 1970s to the late 1990s. These results suggest that while large-scale trends show considerable geographical and temporal variability, amphibian populations are in fact declining--and that this decline has been happening for several decades.