When Should I Get My Next COVID-19 Vaccine? Data From the Surveillance of Responses to COVID-19 Vaccines in Systemic Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases (SUCCEED) Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how serologic responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and infection in immune-mediated inflammatory disease (IMID) are affected by time since last vaccination and other factors. METHODS: Post-COVID-19 vaccination, data, and dried blood spots or sera were collected from adults with rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, systemic lupus erythematosus, ankylosing spondylitis and spondylarthritis, and psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis. The first sample was collected at enrollment, then at 2 to 4 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months after the latest vaccine dose. Multivariate generalized estimating equation regressions (including medications, demographics, and vaccination history) evaluated serologic response, based on log-transformed anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) IgG titers; we also measured antinucleocapsid (anti-N) IgG. RESULTS: Positive associations for log-transformed anti-RBD titers were seen with female sex, number of doses, and self-reported COVID-19 infections in 2021 to 2023. Negative associations were seen with prednisone, anti-tumor necrosis factor agents, and rituximab. Over the 2021-2023 period, most (94%) of anti-N positivity was associated with a self-reported infection in the 3 months prior to testing. From March 2021 to February 2022, anti-N positivity was present in 5% to 15% of samples and was highest in the post-Omicron era, with antinucleocapsid positivity trending to 30% to 35% or higher as of March 2023. Anti-N positivity in IMID remained lower than Canada's general population seroprevalence (> 50% in 2022 and > 75% in 2023). Time since last vaccination was negatively associated with log-transformed anti-RBD titers, particularly after 210 days. CONCLUSION: Ours is the first pan-Canadian IMID assessment of how vaccine history and other factors affect serologic COVID-19 vaccine responses. These findings may help individuals personalize vaccination decisions, including consideration of additional vaccination when > 6 months has elapsed since last COVID-19 vaccination/infection.

Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Canadian Nationwide Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Canada has a high burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Historical trends of IBD incidence and prevalence were analyzed to forecast the Canadian burden over the next decade. METHODS: Population-based surveillance cohorts in 8 provinces derived from health administrative data assessed the national incidence (2007-2014) and prevalence (2002-2014) of IBD. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to forecast incidence and prevalence, stratified by age, with 95% prediction intervals (PI), to 2035. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for the forecasted incidence and prevalence. RESULTS: The national incidence of IBD is estimated to be 29.9 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.3-31.5) in 2023. With a stable AAPC of 0.36% (95% CI -0.05 to 0.72), the incidence of IBD is forecasted to be 31.2 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.1-34.3) in 2035. The incidence in pediatric patients (younger than 18 years) is increasing (AAPC 1.27%; 95% CI 0.82-1.67), but it is stable in adults (AAPC 0.26%; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.82). The prevalence of IBD in Canada was 843 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) in 2023 and is expected to steadily climb (AAPC 2.43%; 95% CI 2.32-2.54) to 1,098 per 100,000 (95% PI 1,068-1,127) by 2035. The highest prevalence is in seniors with IBD (1,174 per 100,000 in 2023; AAPC 2.78%; 95% CI 2.75-2.81). DISCUSSION: Over the next decade, the Canadian health care systems will contend with the juxtaposition of rising incidence of pediatric IBD and a rising prevalence of overall IBD driven by the aging population.

Development of the global inflammatory bowel disease visualization of epidemiology studies in the 21st century (GIVES-21).

BACKGROUND: There is a rapid increase in the incidence of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) in newly industrialized countries, yet epidemiological data is incomplete. We herein report the methodology adopted to study the incidence of IBD in newly industrialized countries and to evaluate the effect of environmental factors including diet on IBD development. METHODS: Global IBD Visualization of Epidemiology Studies in the 21st Century (GIVES-21) is a population-based cohort of newly diagnosed persons with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to be followed prospectively for 12 months. New cases were ascertained from multiple sources and were entered into a secured online system. Cases were confirmed using standard diagnostic criteria. In addition, endoscopy, pathology and pharmacy records from each local site were searched to ensure completeness of case capture. Validated environmental and dietary questionnaires were used to determine exposure in incident cases prior to diagnosis. RESULTS: Through November 2022, 106 hospitals from 24 regions (16 Asia; 6 Latin America; 2 Africa) have joined the GIVES-21 Consortium. To date, over 290 incident cases have been reported. All patients have demographic data, clinical disease characteristics, and disease course data including healthcare utilization, medication history and environmental and dietary exposures data collected. We have established a comprehensive platform and infrastructure required to examine disease incidence, risk factors and disease course of IBD in the real-world setting. CONCLUSIONS: The GIVES-21 consortium offers a unique opportunity to investigate the epidemiology of IBD and explores new clinical research questions on the association between environmental and dietary factors and IBD development in newly industrialized countries.

Adverse Events and Serological Responses After SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Individuals With Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

INTRODUCTION: We determined adverse events after 4 doses of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine in those with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), associations between antibodies and injection site reactions (ISR), and risk of IBD flare. METHODS: Individuals with IBD were interviewed for adverse events to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Multivariable linear regression assessed the association between antibody titers and ISR. RESULTS: Severe adverse events occurred in 0.03%. ISR were significantly associated with antibody levels after the fourth dose (geometric mean ratio = 2.56; 95% confidence interval 1.18-5.57). No cases of IBD flare occurred. DISCUSSION: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are safe for those with IBD. ISR after the fourth dose may indicate increased antibodies.

Hospitalization Rates for Inflammatory Bowel Disease Are Decreasing Over Time: A Population-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent advances in the management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) striving for new treatment targets may have decreased rates of hospitalization for flares. We compared all-cause, IBD-related, and non-IBD-related hospitalizations while accounting for the rising prevalence of IBD. METHODS: Population-based, administrative health care databases identified all individuals living with IBD in Alberta between fiscal year 2002 and 2018. Hospitalization rates (all-cause, IBD-related, and non-IBD-related) were calculated using the prevalent Alberta IBD population. Hospitalizations were stratified by disease type, age, sex, and metropolitan status. Data were age and sex standardized to the 2019 Canadian population. Log-linear models calculated Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) in hospitalization rates with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: From 2002-2003 to 2018-2019, all-cause hospitalization rates decreased from 36.57 to 16.72 per 100 IBD patients (AAPC, -4.18%; 95% CI, -4.69 to -3.66). Inflammatory bowel disease-related hospitalization rate decreased from 26.44 to 9.24 per 100 IBD patients (AAPC, -5.54%; 95% CI, -6.19 to -4.88). Non-IBD-related hospitalization rate decreased from 10.13 to 7.48 per 100 IBD patients (AAPC, -1.82%; 95% CI, -2.14 to -1.49). Those over 80 years old had the greatest all-cause and non-IBD-related hospitalization rates. Temporal trends showing decreasing hospitalization rates were observed across age, sex, IBD type, and metropolitan status. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization rates are decreasing for all-cause, IBD-related, and non-IBD-related hospitalizations. Over the past 20 years, the care of IBD has transitioned from hospital-based care to ambulatory-centric IBD management.

Hospitalization rates per 100 IBD patients are decreasing. However, when using the general population as the denominator, the interpretation of temporal trends changes because the prevalence of IBD has risen faster than the general population's growth rate.

Variation in Testing for and Incidence of Celiac Autoimmunity in Canada: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence of biopsy-confirmed celiac disease has increased. However, few studies have explored the incidence of celiac autoimmunity based on positive serology results. METHODS: A population-based cohort study assessed testing of tissue transglutaminase antibodies (tTG-IgA) in Alberta from 2012 to 2020. After excluding prevalent cases, incident celiac autoimmunity was defined as the first positive tTG-IgA result between 2015 and 2020. Testing and incidence rates for celiac autoimmunity were calculated per 1000 and 100,000 person-years, respectively. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated to identify differences by demographic and regional factors. Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) assessed trends over time. RESULTS: The testing rate of tTG-IgA was 20.2 per 1000 person-years and remained stable from 2012 to 2020 (AAPC, 1.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.5 to 2.9). Testing was higher in female patients (IRR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.65-1.66), those living in metropolitan areas (IRR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.38-1.40), and in areas of lower socioeconomic deprivation (lowest compared to highest IRR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.23-1.25). Incidence of celiac autoimmunity was 33.8 per 100,000 person-years and increased from 2015 to 2020 (AAPC, 6.2%; 95% CI, 3.1-9.5). Among those with tTG-IgA results ≥10 times the upper limit of normal, the incidence was 12.9 per 100,000 person-years. The incidence of celiac autoimmunity was higher in metropolitan settings (IRR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.21-1.35) and in the least socioeconomically deprived areas compared to the highest (IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14-1.32). CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of celiac autoimmunity is high and increasing, despite stable testing rates. Variation in testing patterns may lead to underreporting the incidence of celiac autoimmunity in nonmetropolitan areas and more socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods.