Sequential Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference.

The ideal approach to Bayesian phylogenetic inference is to estimate all parameters of interest jointly in a single hierarchical model. However, this is often not feasible in practice due to the high computational cost. Instead, phylogenetic pipelines generally consist of sequential analyses, whereby a single point estimate from a given analysis is used as input for the next analysis (e.g., a single multiple sequence alignment is used to estimate a gene tree). In this framework, uncertainty is not propagated from step to step, which can lead to inaccurate or spuriously confident results. Here, we formally develop and test a sequential inference approach for Bayesian phylogenetic inference, which uses importance sampling to generate observations for the next step of an analysis pipeline from the posterior distribution produced in the previous step. Our sequential inference approach presented here not only accounts for uncertainty between analysis steps, but also allows for greater flexibility in software choice (and hence model availability) and can be computationally more efficient than the traditional joint inference approach when multiple models are being tested. We show that our sequential inference approach is identical in practice to the joint inference approach only if sufficient information in the data is present (a narrow posterior distribution) and/or sufficiently many importance samples are used. Conversely, we show that the common practice of using a single point estimate can be biased, e.g., a single phylogeny estimate to transform an unrooted phylogeny into a time-calibrated phylogeny. We demonstrate the theory of sequential Bayesian inference using both a toy example and an empirical case study of divergence-time estimation in insects using a relaxed clock model from transcriptome data. In the empirical example, we estimate three posterior distributions of branch lengths from the same data (DNA character matrix with a GTR+Γ+I substitution model, an amino acid data matrix with empirical substitution models, and an amino acid data matrix with the PhyloBayes CAT-GTR model). Finally, we apply three different node-calibration strategies and show that divergence-time estimates are affected by both the data source and underlying substitution process to estimate branch lengths as well as the node-calibration strategies. Thus, our new sequential Bayesian phylogenetic inference provides the opportunity to efficiently test different approaches for divergence time estimation, including branch-length estimation from other software.

Sixty-one thousand recent planktonic foraminifera from the Atlantic Ocean.

Marine microfossils record the environmental, ecological, and evolutionary dynamics of past oceans in temporally expanded sedimentary archives. Rapid imaging approaches provide a means of exploiting the primary advantage of this archive, the vast number of fossils, for evolution and ecology. Here we provide the first large scale image and 2D and 3D shape dataset of modern planktonic foraminifera, a major microfossil group, from 34 Atlantic Ocean sediment samples. Information on more than 124,000 objects is provided, including general object classification for 4/5ths of the dataset (~ 99,000 objects). Of the ~ 99,000 classifications provided, more than 61,000 are complete or damaged planktonic foraminifera. Objects also include benthic foraminifera, ostracods, pteropods, spicules, and planktonic foraminifera test fragments, among others. This dataset is the first major microfossil output of a new high-throughput imaging method (AutoMorph) developed to extract 2D and 3D data from photographic images of fossils. Our sample preparation and imaging techniques are described in detail. The data provided here comprises the most extensive publically available archive of planktonic foraminiferal morphology and morphological variation to date.

A North American stem turaco, and the complex biogeographic history of modern birds.

BACKGROUND: Earth's lower latitudes boast the majority of extant avian species-level and higher-order diversity, with many deeply diverging clades restricted to vestiges of Gondwana. However, palaeontological analyses reveal that many avian crown clades with restricted extant distributions had stem group relatives in very different parts of the world. RESULTS: Our phylogenetic analyses support the enigmatic fossil bird Foro panarium Olson 1992 from the early Eocene (Wasatchian) of Wyoming as a stem turaco (Neornithes: Pan-Musophagidae), a clade that is presently endemic to sub-Saharan Africa. Our analyses offer the first well-supported evidence for a stem musophagid (and therefore a useful fossil calibration for avian molecular divergence analyses), and reveal surprising new information on the early morphology and biogeography of this clade. Total-clade Musophagidae is identified as a potential participant in dispersal via the recently proposed 'North American Gateway' during the Palaeogene, and new biogeographic analyses illustrate the importance of the fossil record in revealing the complex historical biogeography of crown birds across geological timescales. CONCLUSIONS: In the Palaeogene, total-clade Musophagidae was distributed well outside the range of crown Musophagidae in the present day. This observation is consistent with similar biogeographic observations for numerous other modern bird clades, illustrating shortcomings of historical biogeographic analyses that do not incorporate information from the avian fossil record.

Twelve thousand recent patellogastropods from a northeastern Pacific latitudinal gradient.

Body size distributions can vary widely among communities, with important implications for ecological dynamics, energetics, and evolutionary history. Here we present a dataset of body size and shape for 12,035 extant Patellogastropoda (true limpet) specimens from the collections of the University of California Museum of Paleontology, compiled using a novel high-throughput morphometric imaging method. These specimens were collected over the past 150 years at 355 localities along a latitudinal gradient ranging from Alaska to Baja California, Mexico and are presented here with individual images, 2D outline coordinates, and 2D measurements of body size and shape. This dataset provides a resource for assemblage-scale macroecological questions and documents the size and diversity of recent patellogastropods in the northeastern Pacific.

Towards a morphological metric of assemblage dynamics in the fossil record: a test case using planktonic foraminifera.

With a glance, even the novice naturalist can tell you something about the ecology of a given ecosystem. This is because the morphology of individuals reflects their evolutionary history and ecology, and imparts a distinct 'look' to communities--making it possible to immediately discern between deserts and forests, or coral reefs and abyssal plains. Once quantified, morphology can provide a common metric for characterizing communities across space and time and, if measured rapidly, serve as a powerful tool for quantifying biotic dynamics. Here, we present and test a new high-throughput approach for analysing community shape in the fossil record using semi-three-dimensional (3D) morphometrics from vertically stacked images (light microscopic or photogrammetric). We assess the potential informativeness of community morphology in a first analysis of the relationship between 3D morphology, ecology and phylogeny in 16 extant species of planktonic foraminifera--an abundant group in the marine fossil record--and in a preliminary comparison of four assemblages from the North Atlantic. In the species examined, phylogenetic relatedness was most closely correlated with ecology, with all three ecological traits examined (depth habitat, symbiont ecology and biogeography) showing significant phylogenetic signal. By contrast, morphological trees (based on 3D shape similarity) were relatively distantly related to both ecology and phylogeny. Although improvements are needed to realize the full utility of community morphometrics, our approach already provides robust volumetric measurements of assemblage size, a key ecological characteristic.

The origin of snakes: revealing the ecology, behavior, and evolutionary history of early snakes using genomics, phenomics, and the fossil record.

BACKGROUND: The highly derived morphology and astounding diversity of snakes has long inspired debate regarding the ecological and evolutionary origin of both the snake total-group (Pan-Serpentes) and crown snakes (Serpentes). Although speculation abounds on the ecology, behavior, and provenance of the earliest snakes, a rigorous, clade-wide analysis of snake origins has yet to be attempted, in part due to a dearth of adequate paleontological data on early stem snakes. Here, we present the first comprehensive analytical reconstruction of the ancestor of crown snakes and the ancestor of the snake total-group, as inferred using multiple methods of ancestral state reconstruction. We use a combined-data approach that includes new information from the fossil record on extinct crown snakes, new data on the anatomy of the stem snakes Najash rionegrina, Dinilysia patagonica, and Coniophis precedens, and a deeper understanding of the distribution of phenotypic apomorphies among the major clades of fossil and Recent snakes. Additionally, we infer time-calibrated phylogenies using both new 'tip-dating' and traditional node-based approaches, providing new insights on temporal patterns in the early evolutionary history of snakes. RESULTS: Comprehensive ancestral state reconstructions reveal that both the ancestor of crown snakes and the ancestor of total-group snakes were nocturnal, widely foraging, non-constricting stealth hunters. They likely consumed soft-bodied vertebrate and invertebrate prey that was subequal to head size, and occupied terrestrial settings in warm, well-watered, and well-vegetated environments. The snake total-group - approximated by the Coniophis node - is inferred to have originated on land during the middle Early Cretaceous (~128.5 Ma), with the crown-group following about 20 million years later, during the Albian stage. Our inferred divergence dates provide strong evidence for a major radiation of henophidian snake diversity in the wake of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction, clarifying the pattern and timing of the extant snake radiation. Although the snake crown-group most likely arose on the supercontinent of Gondwana, our results suggest the possibility that the snake total-group originated on Laurasia. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides new insights into when, where, and how snakes originated, and presents the most complete picture of the early evolution of snakes to date. More broadly, we demonstrate the striking influence of including fossils and phenotypic data in combined analyses aimed at both phylogenetic topology inference and ancestral state reconstruction.

Evolutionary origin of the turtle shell.

The origin of the turtle shell has perplexed biologists for more than two centuries. It was not until Odontochelys semitestacea was discovered, however, that the fossil and developmental data could be synthesized into a model of shell assembly that makes predictions for the as-yet unestablished history of the turtle stem group. We build on this model by integrating novel data for Eunotosaurus africanus-a Late Guadalupian (∼260 mya) Permian reptile inferred to be an early stem turtle. Eunotosaurus expresses a number of relevant characters, including a reduced number of elongate trunk vertebrae (nine), nine pairs of T-shaped ribs, inferred loss of intercostal muscles, reorganization of respiratory muscles to the ventral side of the ribs, (sub)dermal outgrowth of bone from the developing perichondral collar of the ribs, and paired gastralia that lack both lateral and median elements. These features conform to the predicted sequence of character acquisition and provide further support that E. africanus, O. semitestacea, and Proganochelys quenstedti represent successive divergences from the turtle stem lineage. The initial transformations of the model thus occurred by the Middle Permian, which is congruent with molecular-based divergence estimates for the lineage, and remain viable whether turtles originated inside or outside crown Diapsida.