Post Audit of Simulated Groundwater Flow to a Short-Lived (2019 to 2020) Crater Lake at Kilauea Volcano.

About 14.5 months after the 2018 eruption and summit collapse of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i, liquid water started accumulating in the deepened summit crater, forming a lake that attained 51 m depth before rapidly boiling off on December 20, 2020, when an eruption from the crater wall poured lava into the lake. Modeling the growth of the crater lake at Kilauea summit is important for assessing the potential for explosive volcanism. Our current understanding of the past 2500 years of eruptive activity at Kilauea suggests a slight dominance of explosive behavior over effusive. The deepened summit crater and presence of the crater lake in 2019 raised renewed concerns about explosive activity. Groundwater models using hydraulic-property data from a nearby drillhole successfully forecast the timing and rate of lake filling. Here we compare the groundwater-model predictions with observational data through the demise of the crater lake, examine the implications for local water-table configuration, consider the potential role of evaporation and recharge (neglected in previous models), and briefly discuss the energetics of the rapid boil-off. This post audit of groundwater-flow models of Kilauea summit shows that simple models can sometimes be used effectively to simulate complex settings such as volcanoes.

Bioremediation in Fractured Rock: 2. Mobilization of Chloroethene Compounds from the Rock Matrix.

A mass balance is formulated to evaluate the mobilization of chlorinated ethene compounds (CE) from the rock matrix of a fractured mudstone aquifer under pre- and postbioremediation conditions. The analysis relies on a sparse number of monitoring locations and is constrained by a detailed description of the groundwater flow regime. Groundwater flow modeling developed under the site characterization identified groundwater fluxes to formulate the CE mass balance in the rock volume exposed to the injected remediation amendments. Differences in the CE fluxes into and out of the rock volume identify the total CE mobilized from diffusion, desorption, and nonaqueous phase liquid dissolution under pre- and postinjection conditions. The initial CE mass in the rock matrix prior to remediation is estimated using analyses of CE in rock core. The CE mass mobilized per year under preinjection conditions is small relative to the total CE mass in the rock, indicating that current pump-and-treat and natural attenuation conditions are likely to require hundreds of years to achieve groundwater concentrations that meet regulatory guidelines. The postinjection CE mobilization rate increased by approximately an order of magnitude over the 5 years of monitoring after the amendment injection. This rate is likely to decrease and additional remediation applications over several decades would still be needed to reduce CE mass in the rock matrix to levels where groundwater concentrations in fractures achieve regulatory standards.

Bioremediation in Fractured Rock: 1. Modeling to Inform Design, Monitoring, and Expectations.

Field characterization of a trichloroethene (TCE) source area in fractured mudstones produced a detailed understanding of the geology, contaminant distribution in fractures and the rock matrix, and hydraulic and transport properties. Groundwater flow and chemical transport modeling that synthesized the field characterization information proved critical for designing bioremediation of the source area. The planned bioremediation involved injecting emulsified vegetable oil and bacteria to enhance the naturally occurring biodegradation of TCE. The flow and transport modeling showed that injection will spread amendments widely over a zone of lower-permeability fractures, with long residence times expected because of small velocities after injection and sorption of emulsified vegetable oil onto solids. Amendments transported out of this zone will be diluted by groundwater flux from other areas, limiting bioremediation effectiveness downgradient. At nearby pumping wells, further dilution is expected to make bioremediation effects undetectable in the pumped water. The results emphasize that in fracture-dominated flow regimes, the extent of injected amendments cannot be conceptualized using simple homogeneous models of groundwater flow commonly adopted to design injections in unconsolidated porous media (e.g., radial diverging or dipole flow regimes). Instead, it is important to synthesize site characterization information using a groundwater flow model that includes discrete features representing high- and low-permeability fractures. This type of model accounts for the highly heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity and groundwater fluxes in fractured-rock aquifers, and facilitates designing injection strategies that target specific volumes of the aquifer and maximize the distribution of amendments over these volumes.

Scientific basis for safely shutting in the Macondo Well after the April 20, 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout.

As part of the government response to the Deepwater Horizon blowout, a Well Integrity Team evaluated the geologic hazards of shutting in the Macondo Well at the seafloor and determined the conditions under which it could safely be undertaken. Of particular concern was the possibility that, under the anticipated high shut-in pressures, oil could leak out of the well casing below the seafloor. Such a leak could lead to new geologic pathways for hydrocarbon release to the Gulf of Mexico. Evaluating this hazard required analyses of 2D and 3D seismic surveys, seafloor bathymetry, sediment properties, geophysical well logs, and drilling data to assess the geological, hydrological, and geomechanical conditions around the Macondo Well. After the well was successfully capped and shut in on July 15, 2010, a variety of monitoring activities were used to assess subsurface well integrity. These activities included acquisition of wellhead pressure data, marine multichannel seismic profiles, seafloor and water-column sonar surveys, and wellhead visual/acoustic monitoring. These data showed that the Macondo Well was not leaking after shut in, and therefore, it could remain safely shut until reservoir pressures were suppressed (killed) with heavy drilling mud and the well was sealed with cement.

Review of flow rate estimates of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

The unprecedented nature of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill required the application of research methods to estimate the rate at which oil was escaping from the well in the deep sea, its disposition after it entered the ocean, and total reservoir depletion. Here, we review what advances were made in scientific understanding of quantification of flow rates during deep sea oil well blowouts. We assess the degree to which a consensus was reached on the flow rate of the well by comparing in situ observations of the leaking well with a time-dependent flow rate model derived from pressure readings taken after the Macondo well was shut in for the well integrity test. Model simulations also proved valuable for predicting the effect of partial deployment of the blowout preventer rams on flow rate. Taken together, the scientific analyses support flow rates in the range of ∼50,000-70,000 barrels/d, perhaps modestly decreasing over the duration of the oil spill, for a total release of ∼5.0 million barrels of oil, not accounting for BP's collection effort. By quantifying the amount of oil at different locations (wellhead, ocean surface, and atmosphere), we conclude that just over 2 million barrels of oil (after accounting for containment) and all of the released methane remained in the deep sea. By better understanding the fate of the hydrocarbons, the total discharge can be partitioned into separate components that pose threats to deep sea vs. coastal ecosystems, allowing responders in future events to scale their actions accordingly.

Application of MODFLOW for oil reservoir simulation during the Deepwater Horizon crisis.

When the Macondo well was shut in on July 15, 2010, the shut-in pressure recovered to a level that indicated the possibility of oil leakage out of the well casing into the surrounding formation. Such a leak could initiate a hydraulic fracture that might eventually breach the seafloor, resulting in renewed and uncontrolled oil flow into the Gulf of Mexico. To help evaluate whether or not to reopen the well, a MODFLOW model was constructed within 24 h after shut in to analyze the shut-in pressure. The model showed that the shut-in pressure can be explained by a reasonable scenario in which the well did not leak after shut in. The rapid response provided a scientific analysis for the decision to keep the well shut, thus ending the oil spill resulting from the Deepwater Horizon blow out.

Estimating hydraulic parameters when poroelastic effects are significant.

For almost 80 years, deformation-induced head changes caused by poroelastic effects have been observed during pumping tests in multilayered aquifer-aquitard systems. As water in the aquifer is released from compressive storage during pumping, the aquifer is deformed both in the horizontal and vertical directions. This deformation in the pumped aquifer causes deformation in the adjacent layers, resulting in changes in pore pressure that may produce drawdown curves that differ significantly from those predicted by traditional groundwater theory. Although these deformation-induced head changes have been analyzed in several studies by poroelasticity theory, there are at present no practical guidelines for the interpretation of pumping test data influenced by these effects. To investigate the impact that poroelastic effects during pumping tests have on the estimation of hydraulic parameters, we generate synthetic data for three different aquifer-aquitard settings using a poroelasticity model, and then analyze the synthetic data using type curves and parameter estimation techniques, both of which are based on traditional groundwater theory and do not account for poroelastic effects. Results show that even when poroelastic effects result in significant deformation-induced head changes, it is possible to obtain reasonable estimates of hydraulic parameters using methods based on traditional groundwater theory, as long as pumping is sufficiently long so that deformation-induced effects have largely dissipated.

Determining anisotropic transmissivity using a simplified Papadopulos method.

The straight-line method presented by Papadopulos requires a minimum of three observation wells for determining the transmissivity tensor of a homogeneous and anisotropic aquifer. A simplification of this method was developed for fractured aquifers where the principal directions of the transmissivity tensor are known prior to implementation, such as when fracture patterns on outcropping portions of the aquifer may be used to infer the principal directions. This new method assumes that observation wells are drilled along the two principal directions from the pumped well, thus reducing the required number of observation wells to two. This method was applied for an aquifer test in the fractured Navajo Sandstone of southwestern Utah and yielded minimum and maximum principal transmissivity values of 70 and 1800 m(2)/d, respectively, indicating an anisotropy ratio of approximately 24 to 1.