Preserving the woody plant tree of life in China under future climate and land-cover changes.

The tree of life (TOL) is severely threatened by climate and land-cover changes. Preserving the TOL is urgent, but has not been included in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Protected areas (PAs) are fundamental for biological conservation. However, we know little about the effectiveness of existing PAs in preserving the TOL of plants and how to prioritize PA expansion for better TOL preservation under future climate and land-cover changes. Here, using high-resolution distribution maps of 8732 woody species in China and phylogeny-based Zonation, we find that current PAs perform poorly in preserving the TOL both at present and in 2070s. The geographical coverage of TOL branches by current PAs is approx. 9%, and less than 3% of the identified priority areas for preserving the TOL are currently protected. Interestingly, the geographical coverage of TOL branches by PAs will be improved from 9% to 52-79% by the identified priority areas for PA expansion. Human pressures in the identified priority areas are high, leading to high cost for future PA expansion. We thus suggest that besides nature reserves and national parks, other effective area-based conservation measures should be considered. Our study argues for the inclusion of preserving the TOL in the post-2020 conservation framework, and provides references for decision-makers to preserve the Earth's evolutionary history.

Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change.

Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a high-resolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241-244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798-801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution.