ABSTRACT
COVID-19 continues to threaten the world. Relaxing local travel behaviours on preventing the spread of COVID-19, may increase the infection risk in subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this study, we analysed changes in the travel behaviour of different population groups (adult, child, student, elderly) during four pandemic waves in Hong Kong before January 2021, by 4-billion second-by-second smartcard records of subway. A significant continuous relaxation in human travel behaviour was observed during the four waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Residents sharply reduced their local travel by 51.9%, 50.1%, 27.6%, and 20.5% from the first to fourth pandemic waves, respectively. The population flow in residential areas, workplaces, schools, shopping areas, amusement areas and border areas, decreased on average by 30.3%, 33.5%, 41.9%, 58.1%, 85.4% and 99.6%, respectively, during the pandemic weeks. We also found that many other cities around the world experienced a similar relaxation trend in local travel behaviour, by comparing traffic congestion data during the pandemic with data from the same period in 2019. The quantitative pandemic fatigue in local travel behaviour could help governments partially predicting personal protective behaviours, and thus to suggest more accurate interventions during subsequent waves, especially for highly infectious virus variants such as Omicron.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 is a global threat. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were commonly adopted for COVID-19 prevention and control. However, during stable periods of the pandemic, energy would be inevitably wasted if all interventions were implemented. The study aims to reduce the building energy consumption when meet the demands of epidemic prevention and control under the stable period of COVID-19. Based on the improved Wells-Riley model considering dynamic quanta generation and pulmonary ventilation rate, we established the infection risk - equivalent fresh air volume - energy consumption model to analyze the infection risk and building energy consumption during different seasons and optimized the urban building energy consumption according to the spatio-temporal population distribution. Shopping centers and restaurants contributed the most in urban energy consumption, and if they are closed during the pandemic, the total infection risk would be reduced by 25%-40% and 15%-25% respectively and the urban energy consumption would be reduced by 30%-40% and 13%-20% respectively. If people wore masks in all public indoor environments (exclude restaurants and KTV), the infection risk could be reduced by 60%-70% and the energy consumption could be reduced by 20%-60%. Gyms pose the highest risk for COVID-19 transmission. If the energy consumption kept the same with the current value, after the optimization, infection risk in winter, summer and the transition season could be reduced by 65%, 53% and 60%, respectively. After the optimization, under the condition of R t < 1, the energy consumption in winter, summer, and the transition season could be reduced by 72%, 64%, and 68% respectively.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to considerable morbidity and mortality, and consumed enormous resources (e.g. energy) to control and prevent the disease. It is crucial to balance infection risk and energy consumption when reducing the spread of infection. In this study, a quantitative human, behavior-based, infection risk-energy consumption model for different indoor environments was developed. An optimal balance point for each indoor environment can be obtained using the anti-problem method. For this study we selected Wangjing Block, one of the most densely populated places in Beijing, as an example. Under the current ventilation standard (30 m3/h/person), prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic would be insufficient because the basic reproduction number (R0 ) for students, workers and elders are greater than 1. The optimal required fresh air ventilation rates in most indoor environments are near or below 60 m3/h/person, after considering the combined effects of multiple mitigation measures. In residences, sports buildings and restaurants, the demand for fresh air ventilation rate is relatively high. After our global optimization of infection risk control (R0 ≤ 1), energy consumption can be reduced by 13.7% and 45.1% on weekdays and weekends, respectively, in contrast to a strategy of strict control (R0 = 1 for each indoor environment).
