Estimating One-Year Risk of Incident Chronic Kidney Disease: Retrospective Development and Validation Study Using Electronic Medical Record Data From the State of Maine.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health concern in the United States with high prevalence, growing incidence, and serious adverse outcomes. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop and validate a model to identify patients at risk of receiving a new diagnosis of CKD (incident CKD) during the next 1 year in a general population. METHODS: The study population consisted of patients who had visited any care facility in the Maine Health Information Exchange network any time between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2015, and had no history of CKD diagnosis. Two retrospective cohorts of electronic medical records (EMRs) were constructed for model derivation (N=1,310,363) and validation (N=1,430,772). The model was derived using a gradient tree-based boost algorithm to assign a score to each individual that measured the probability of receiving a new diagnosis of CKD from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2014, based on the preceding 1-year clinical profile. A feature selection process was conducted to reduce the dimension of the data from 14,680 EMR features to 146 as predictors in the final model. Relative risk was calculated by the model to gauge the risk ratio of the individual to population mean of receiving a CKD diagnosis in next 1 year. The model was tested on the validation cohort to predict risk of CKD diagnosis in the period from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015, using the preceding 1-year clinical profile. RESULTS: The final model had a c-statistic of 0.871 in the validation cohort. It stratified patients into low-risk (score 0-0.005), intermediate-risk (score 0.005-0.05), and high-risk (score ≥ 0.05) levels. The incidence of CKD in the high-risk patient group was 7.94%, 13.7 times higher than the incidence in the overall cohort (0.58%). Survival analysis showed that patients in the 3 risk categories had significantly different CKD outcomes as a function of time (P<.001), indicating an effective classification of patients by the model. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a model that is able to identify patients at high risk of having CKD in the next 1 year by statistically learning from the EMR-based clinical history in the preceding 1 year. Identification of these patients indicates care opportunities such as monitoring and adopting intervention plans that may benefit the quality of care and outcomes in the long term.

Defining and characterizing the critical transition state prior to the type 2 diabetes disease.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), with increased risk of serious long-term complications, currently represents 8.3% of the adult population. We hypothesized that a critical transition state prior to the new onset T2DM can be revealed through the longitudinal electronic medical record (EMR) analysis. METHOD: We applied the transition-based network entropy methodology which previously identified a dynamic driver network (DDN) underlying the critical T2DM transition at the tissue molecular biological level. To profile pre-disease phenotypical changes that indicated a critical transition state, a cohort of 7,334 patients was assembled from the Maine State Health Information Exchange (HIE). These patients all had their first confirmative diagnosis of T2DM between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013. The cohort's EMRs from the 24 months preceding their date of first T2DM diagnosis were extracted. RESULTS: Analysis of these patients' pre-disease clinical history identified a dynamic driver network (DDN) and an associated critical transition state six months prior to their first confirmative T2DM state. CONCLUSIONS: This 6-month window before the disease state provides an early warning of the impending T2DM, warranting an opportunity to apply proactive interventions to prevent or delay the new onset of T2DM.

Preparation and Electrochemical Properties of Mesoporous Manganese Dioxide-Based Composite Electrode for Supercapacitor.

The mesoporous manganese dioxide with high specific surface area was obtained through a one-pot prepare procedure at ambient temperature under acidic conditions. And the graphene/mesoporous manganese dioxide composite was synthesized by a simple hydrothermal approach. As a comparison, silver nanowires also as a conductor was added to the mesoporous manganese dioxide. Both of the graphene and silver nanowires can increase the capacitance of the mesoporous manganese dioxide-based composite electrode materials. Compared with the graphene/mesoporous manganese dioxide composite, the silver nanowires/mesoporous manganese dioxide mixture has a better electrochemical performance, the specific capacitance and energy density is almost 2.2 times larger than that of the composites. The morphology and detail structure were investigated by the Scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, Raman spectra, Fourier transform infrared spectrometry and Nitrogen adsorption­desorption isotherms. The electrochemical performance was assessed by the cyclic voltammograms, galvanostatic charge/discharge and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy.

Prospective stratification of patients at risk for emergency department revisit: resource utilization and population management strategy implications.

BACKGROUND: Estimating patient risk of future emergency department (ED) revisits can guide the allocation of resources, e.g. local primary care and/or specialty, to better manage ED high utilization patient populations and thereby improve patient life qualities. METHODS: We set to develop and validate a method to estimate patient ED revisit risk in the subsequent 6 months from an ED discharge date. An ensemble decision-tree-based model with Electronic Medical Record (EMR) encounter data from HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange (HIE), was developed and validated, assessing patient risk for a subsequent 6 month return ED visit based on the ED encounter-associated demographic and EMR clinical history data. A retrospective cohort of 293,461 ED encounters that occurred between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2012, was assembled with the associated patients' 1-year clinical histories before the ED discharge date, for model training and calibration purposes. To validate, a prospective cohort of 193,886 ED encounters that occurred between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013 was constructed. RESULTS: Statistical learning that was utilized to construct the prediction model identified 152 variables that included the following data domains: demographics groups (12), different encounter history (104), care facilities (12), primary and secondary diagnoses (10), primary and secondary procedures (2), chronic disease condition (1), laboratory test results (2), and outpatient prescription medications (9). The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.742 and 0.730 respectively. Total medical expense and ED utilization by risk score 6 months after the discharge were analyzed. Cluster analysis identified discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients with distinctive resource utilization patterns, suggesting the need for diversified care management strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. It promises to provide increased opportunity for high ED utilization identification, and optimized resource and population management.

Exploring the Role of Polycythemia in Patients With Cyanosis After Palliative Congenital Heart Surgery.

OBJECTIVES: To understand the relationship between polycythemia and clinical outcome in patients with hypoplastic left heart syndrome following the Norwood operation. DESIGN: A retrospective, single-center cohort study. SETTING: Pediatric cardiovascular ICU, university-affiliated children's hospital. PATIENTS: Infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome admitted to our medical center from September 2009 to December 2012 undergoing stage 1/Norwood operation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Baseline demographic and clinical information including first recorded postoperative hematocrit and subsequent mean, median, and nadir hematocrits during the first 72 hours postoperatively were recorded. The primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and length of hospitalization. Thirty-two patients were included in the analysis. Patients did not differ by operative factors (cardiopulmonary bypass time and cross-clamp time) or traditional markers of severity of illness (vasoactive inotrope score, lactate, saturation, and PaO2/FIO2 ratio). Early polycythemia (hematocrit value > 49%) was associated with longer cardiovascular ICU stay (51.0 [± 38.6] vs 21.4 [± 16.2] d; p < 0.01) and total hospital length of stay (65.0 [± 46.5] vs 36.1 [± 20.0] d; p = 0.03). In a multivariable analysis, polycythemia remained independently associated with the length of hospitalization after controlling for the amount of RBC transfusion (weight, 4.36 [95% CI, 1.35-7.37]; p < 0.01). No difference in in-hospital mortality rates was detected between the two groups (17.6% vs 20%). CONCLUSIONS: Early polycythemia following the Norwood operation is associated with longer length of hospitalization even after controlling for blood cell transfusion practices. We hypothesize that polycythemia may be caused by hemoconcentration and used as an early marker of capillary leak syndrome.

Development, Validation and Deployment of a Real Time 30 Day Hospital Readmission Risk Assessment Tool in the Maine Healthcare Information Exchange.

OBJECTIVES: Identifying patients at risk of a 30-day readmission can help providers design interventions, and provide targeted care to improve clinical effectiveness. This study developed a risk model to predict a 30-day inpatient hospital readmission for patients in Maine, across all payers, all diseases and all demographic groups. METHODS: Our objective was to develop a model to determine the risk for inpatient hospital readmission within 30 days post discharge. All patients within the Maine Health Information Exchange (HIE) system were included. The model was retrospectively developed on inpatient encounters between January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 from 24 randomly chosen hospitals, and then prospectively validated on inpatient encounters from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 using all HIE patients. RESULTS: A risk assessment tool partitioned the entire HIE population into subgroups that corresponded to probability of hospital readmission as determined by a corresponding positive predictive value (PPV). An overall model c-statistic of 0.72 was achieved. The total 30-day readmission rates in low (score of 0-30), intermediate (score of 30-70) and high (score of 70-100) risk groupings were 8.67%, 24.10% and 74.10%, respectively. A time to event analysis revealed the higher risk groups readmitted to a hospital earlier than the lower risk groups. Six high-risk patient subgroup patterns were revealed through unsupervised clustering. Our model was successfully integrated into the statewide HIE to identify patient readmission risk upon admission and daily during hospitalization or for 30 days subsequently, providing daily risk score updates. CONCLUSIONS: The risk model was validated as an effective tool for predicting 30-day readmissions for patients across all payer, disease and demographic groups within the Maine HIE. Exposing the key clinical, demographic and utilization profiles driving each patient's risk of readmission score may be useful to providers in developing individualized post discharge care plans.

Online Prediction of Health Care Utilization in the Next Six Months Based on Electronic Health Record Information: A Cohort and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: The increasing rate of health care expenditures in the United States has placed a significant burden on the nation's economy. Predicting future health care utilization of patients can provide useful information to better understand and manage overall health care deliveries and clinical resource allocation. OBJECTIVE: This study developed an electronic medical record (EMR)-based online risk model predictive of resource utilization for patients in Maine in the next 6 months across all payers, all diseases, and all demographic groups. METHODS: In the HealthInfoNet, Maine's health information exchange (HIE), a retrospective cohort of 1,273,114 patients was constructed with the preceding 12-month EMR. Each patient's next 6-month (between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013) health care resource utilization was retrospectively scored ranging from 0 to 100 and a decision tree-based predictive model was developed. Our model was later integrated in the Maine HIE population exploration system to allow a prospective validation analysis of 1,358,153 patients by forecasting their next 6-month risk of resource utilization between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2013. RESULTS: Prospectively predicted risks, on either an individual level or a population (per 1000 patients) level, were consistent with the next 6-month resource utilization distributions and the clinical patterns at the population level. Results demonstrated the strong correlation between its care resource utilization and our risk scores, supporting the effectiveness of our model. With the online population risk monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the predictive algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in the State of Maine. CONCLUSIONS: The model and associated online applications were designed for tracking the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for health care resource utilization. It will enable more effective care management strategies driving improved patient outcomes.

NLP based congestive heart failure case finding: A prospective analysis on statewide electronic medical records.

BACKGROUND: In order to proactively manage congestive heart failure (CHF) patients, an effective CHF case finding algorithm is required to process both structured and unstructured electronic medical records (EMR) to allow complementary and cost-efficient identification of CHF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We set to identify CHF cases from both EMR codified and natural language processing (NLP) found cases. Using narrative clinical notes from all Maine Health Information Exchange (HIE) patients, the NLP case finding algorithm was retrospectively (July 1, 2012-June 30, 2013) developed with a random subset of HIE associated facilities, and blind-tested with the remaining facilities. The NLP based method was integrated into a live HIE population exploration system and validated prospectively (July 1, 2013-June 30, 2014). Total of 18,295 codified CHF patients were included in Maine HIE. Among the 253,803 subjects without CHF codings, our case finding algorithm prospectively identified 2411 uncodified CHF cases. The positive predictive value (PPV) is 0.914, and 70.1% of these 2411 cases were found to be with CHF histories in the clinical notes. CONCLUSIONS: A CHF case finding algorithm was developed, tested and prospectively validated. The successful integration of the CHF case findings algorithm into the Maine HIE live system is expected to improve the Maine CHF care.

Exploring Value in Congenital Heart Disease: An Evaluation of Inpatient Admissions.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding value provides an important context for improvement. However, most health care models fail to measure value. Our objective was to categorize inpatient encounters within an academic congenital heart program based on clinical outcome and the cost to achieve the outcome (value). We aimed to describe clinical and nonclinical features associated with value. DESIGN: We defined hospital encounters based on outcome per resource utilized. We performed principal component and cluster analysis to classify encounters based on mortality, length of stay, hospital cost and revenue into six classes. We used nearest shrunken centroid to identify discriminant features associated with the cluster-derived classes. These features underwent hierarchical clustering and multivariate analysis to identify features associated with each class. STUDY SETTING/PATIENTS: We analyzed all patients admitted to an academic congenital heart program between September 1, 2009, and December 31, 2012. OUTCOME MEASURES/RESULTS: A total of 2658 encounters occurred during the study period. Six classes were categorized by value. Low-performing value classes were associated with greater institutional reward; however, encounters with higher-performing value were associated with a loss in profitability. Encounters that included insertion of a pediatric ventricular assist device (log OR 2.5 [95% CI, 1.78 to 3.43]) and acquisition of a hospital-acquired infection (log OR 1.42 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.87]) were risk factors for inferior health care value. CONCLUSIONS: Among the patients in our study, institutional reward was not associated with value. We describe a framework to target quality improvement and resource management efforts that can benefit patients, institutions, and payers alike.

Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

BACKGROUND: An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. OBJECTIVE: Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. METHODS: Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. RESULTS: The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. CONCLUSIONS: The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for ED visits across all payers, all diseases, and all age groups. Therefore, providers can implement targeted care management strategies to the patient subgroups with similar patterns of clinical histories, driving the delivery of more efficient and effective health care interventions. To the best of our knowledge, this prospectively validated EMR-based, Web-based tool is the first one to allow real-time total population risk assessment for statewide ED visits.

Pilot Application of Magnetic Nanoparticle-Based Biosensor for Necrotizing Enterocolitis.

BACKGROUND: Necrotizing Enterocolitis (NEC) is a major source of neonatal morbidity and mortality. There is an ongoing need for a sensitive diagnostic instrument to discriminate NEC from neonatal sepsis. We hypothesized that magnetic nanopartile-based biosensor analysis of gut injury-associated biomarkers would provide such an instrument. STUDY DESIGN: We designed a magnetic multiplexed biosensor platform, allowing the parallel plasma analysis of C-reactive protein (CRP), matrix metalloproteinase-7 (MMp7), and epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM). Neonatal subjects with sepsis (n=5) or NEC (n=10) were compared to control (n=5) subjects to perform a proof of concept pilot study for the diagnosis of NEC using our ultra-sensitive biosensor platform. RESULTS: Our multiplexed NEC magnetic nanoparticle-based biosensor platform was robust, ultrasensitive (Limit of detection LOD: CRP 0.6 pg/ml; MMp7 20 pg/ml; and EpCAM 20 pg/ml), and displayed no cross-reactivity among analyte reporting regents. To gauge the diagnostic performance, bootstrapping procedure (500 runs) was applied: MMp7 and EpCAM collectively differentiated infants with NEC from control infants with ROC AUC of 0.96, and infants with NEC from those with sepsis with ROC AUC of 1.00. The 3-marker panel comprising of EpCAM, MMp7 and CRP had a corresponding ROC AUC of 0.956 and 0.975, respectively. CONCLUSION: The exploration of the multiplexed nano-biosensor platform shows promise to deliver an ultrasensitive instrument for the diagnosis of NEC in the clinical setting.

High Rate Performance Nanocomposite Electrode of Mesoporous Manganese Dioxide/Silver Nanowires in KI Electrolytes.

In recent years, manganese dioxide has become a research hotspot as an electrode material because of its low price. However, it has also become an obstacle to industrialization due to its low ratio of capacitance and the low rate performance which is caused by the poor electrical conductivity. In this study, a KI solution with electrochemical activity was innovatively applied to the electrolyte, and we systematically investigated the rate performance of the mesoporous manganese dioxide and the composite electrode with silver nanowires in supercapacitors. The results showed that when mesoporous manganese dioxide and mesoporous manganese dioxide/silver nanowires composite were used as electrodes, the strength of the current was amplified five times (from 0.1 to 0.5 A/g), the remaining rates of specific capacitance were 95% (from 205.5 down to 197.1 F/g) and 92% (from 208.1 down to 191.7 F/g) in the KI electrolyte, and the rate performance was much higher than which in an Na2SO4 electrolyte with a remaining rate of 25% (from 200.3 down to 49.1 F/g) and 60% (from 187.2 down to 113.1 F/g). The morphology and detail structure were investigated by Scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectrometry and Nitrogen adsorption-desorption isotherms. The electrochemical performance was assessed by cyclic voltammograms, galvanostatic charge/discharge and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy.

Preparation and Electrochemical Characterization of Mesoporous Polyaniline-Silica Nanocomposites as an Electrode Material for Pseudocapacitors.

Mesoporous polyaniline-silica nanocomposites with a full interpenetrating structure for pseudocapacitors were synthesized via the vapor phase approach. The morphology and structure of the nanocomposites were deeply investigated by scanning electron microscopy, infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, thermal gravimetric analysis and nitrogen adsorption-desorption tests. The results present that the mesoporous nanocomposites possess a uniform particle morphology and full interpenetrating structure, leading to a continuous conductive polyaniline network with a large specific surface area. The electrochemical performances of the nanocomposites were tested in a mixed solution of sulfuric acid and potassium iodide. With the merits of a large specific surface area and suitable pore size distribution, the nanocomposite showed a large specific capacitance (1702.68 farad (F)/g) due to its higher utilization of the active material. This amazing value is almost three-times larger than that of bulk polyaniline when the same mass of active material was used.

Utility of clinical biomarkers to predict central line-associated bloodstream infections after congenital heart surgery.

BACKGROUND: Central line-associated bloodstream infections is an important contributor of morbidity and mortality in children recovering from congenital heart surgery. The reliability of commonly used biomarkers to differentiate these patients has not been specifically studied. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study in a university-affiliated children's hospital examining all patients with congenital or acquired heart disease admitted to the cardiovascular intensive care unit after cardiac surgery who underwent evaluation for a catheter-associated bloodstream infection. RESULTS: Among 1260 cardiac surgeries performed, 451 encounters underwent an infection evaluation postoperatively. Twenty-five instances of central line-associated blood stream infections (CLABSI) and 227 instances of a negative infection evaluation were the subject of analysis. Patients with CLABSI tended to be younger (1.34 vs. 4.56 years, P=0.011) and underwent more complex surgery (RACHS-1 score 3.79 vs. 3.04, P=0.039). The 2 groups were indistinguishable in white blood cell, polymorphonuclears and band count at the time of their presentation. On multivariate analysis, CLABSI was associated with fever (adjusted odds ratio: 4.78; 95% CI: 1.6-5.8) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP; adjusted odds ratio: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.09-1.68) after adjusting for differences between the 2 groups. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis demonstrated the discriminatory power of both fever and CRP (area under curve 0.7247, 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.74 and 0.58, 95% CI: 0.4208 to 0.7408). We calculated multilevel likelihood ratios for a spectrum of temperature and CRP values. CONCLUSIONS: We found commonly used serum biomarkers such as fever and CRP not to be helpful discriminators in patients after congenital heart surgery.

Risk prediction of emergency department revisit 30 days post discharge: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Among patients who are discharged from the Emergency Department (ED), about 3% return within 30 days. Revisits can be related to the nature of the disease, medical errors, and/or inadequate diagnoses and treatment during their initial ED visit. Identification of high-risk patient population can help device new strategies for improved ED care with reduced ED utilization. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A decision tree based model with discriminant Electronic Medical Record (EMR) features was developed and validated, estimating patient ED 30 day revisit risk. A retrospective cohort of 293,461 ED encounters from HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange (HIE), between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2012, was assembled with the associated patients' demographic information and one-year clinical histories before the discharge date as the inputs. To validate, a prospective cohort of 193,886 encounters between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013 was constructed. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective predictions were 0.710 and 0.704 respectively. Clinical resource utilization, including ED use, was analyzed as a function of the ED risk score. Cluster analysis of high-risk patients identified discrete sub-populations with distinctive demographic, clinical and resource utilization patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Our ED 30-day revisit model was prospectively validated on the Maine State HIN secure statewide data system. Future integration of our ED predictive analytics into the ED care work flow may lead to increased opportunities for targeted care intervention to reduce ED resource burden and overall healthcare expense, and improve outcomes.

A data-driven algorithm integrating clinical and laboratory features for the diagnosis and prognosis of necrotizing enterocolitis.

BACKGROUND: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a major source of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Since there is no specific diagnostic test or risk of progression model available for NEC, the diagnosis and outcome prediction of NEC is made on clinical grounds. The objective in this study was to develop and validate new NEC scoring systems for automated staging and prognostic forecasting. STUDY DESIGN: A six-center consortium of university based pediatric teaching hospitals prospectively collected data on infants under suspicion of having NEC over a 7-year period. A database comprised of 520 infants was utilized to develop the NEC diagnostic and prognostic models by dividing the entire dataset into training and testing cohorts of demographically matched subjects. Developed on the training cohort and validated on the blind testing cohort, our multivariate analyses led to NEC scoring metrics integrating clinical data. RESULTS: Machine learning using clinical and laboratory results at the time of clinical presentation led to two nec models: (1) an automated diagnostic classification scheme; (2) a dynamic prognostic method for risk-stratifying patients into low, intermediate and high NEC scores to determine the risk for disease progression. We submit that dynamic risk stratification of infants with NEC will assist clinicians in determining the need for additional diagnostic testing and guide potential therapies in a dynamic manner. ALGORITHM AVAILABILITY: http://translationalmedicine.stanford.edu/cgi-bin/NEC/index.pl and smartphone application upon request.

Urine protein biomarkers for the diagnosis and prognosis of necrotizing enterocolitis in infants.

OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that an exploratory proteomics analysis of urine proteins with subsequent development of validated urine biomarker panels would produce molecular classifiers for both the diagnosis and prognosis of infants with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). STUDY DESIGN: Urine samples were collected from 119 premature infants (85 NEC, 17 sepsis, 17 control) at the time of initial clinical concern for disease. The urine from 59 infants was used for candidate biomarker discovery by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. The remaining 60 samples were subject to enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for quantitative biomarker validation. RESULTS: A panel of 7 biomarkers (alpha-2-macroglobulin-like protein 1, cluster of differentiation protein 14, cystatin 3, fibrinogen alpha chain, pigment epithelium-derived factor, retinol binding protein 4, and vasolin) was identified by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry and subsequently validated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. These proteins were consistently found to be either up- or down-regulated depending on the presence, absence, or severity of disease. Biomarker panel validation resulted in a receiver-operator characteristic area under the curve of 98.2% for NEC vs sepsis and an area under the curve of 98.4% for medical NEC vs surgical NEC. CONCLUSIONS: We identified 7 urine proteins capable of providing highly accurate diagnostic and prognostic information for infants with suspected NEC. This work represents a novel approach to improving the efficiency with which we diagnose early NEC and identify those at risk for developing severe, or surgical, disease.

A novel urine peptide biomarker-based algorithm for the prognosis of necrotising enterocolitis in human infants.

OBJECTIVE: Necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) is a major source of neonatal morbidity and mortality. The management of infants with NEC is currently complicated by our inability to accurately identify those at risk for progression of disease prior to the development of irreversible intestinal necrosis. We hypothesised that integrated analysis of clinical parameters in combination with urine peptide biomarkers would lead to improved prognostic accuracy in the NEC population. DESIGN: Infants under suspicion of having NEC (n=550) were prospectively enrolled from a consortium consisting of eight university-based paediatric teaching hospitals. Twenty-seven clinical parameters were used to construct a multivariate predictor of NEC progression. Liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry was used to profile the urine peptidomes from a subset of this population (n=65) to discover novel biomarkers of NEC progression. An ensemble model for the prediction of disease progression was then created using clinical and biomarker data. RESULTS: The use of clinical parameters alone resulted in a receiver-operator characteristic curve with an area under the curve of 0.817 and left 40.1% of all patients in an 'indeterminate' risk group. Three validated urine peptide biomarkers (fibrinogen peptides: FGA1826, FGA1883 and FGA2659) produced a receiver-operator characteristic area under the curve of 0.856. The integration of clinical parameters with urine biomarkers in an ensemble model resulted in the correct prediction of NEC outcomes in all cases tested. CONCLUSIONS: Ensemble modelling combining clinical parameters with biomarker analysis dramatically improves our ability to identify the population at risk for developing progressive NEC.

Investigation of maternal environmental exposures in association with self-reported preterm birth.

Identification of maternal environmental factors influencing preterm birth risks is important to understand the reasons for the increase in prematurity since 1990. Here, we utilized a health survey, the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to search for personal environmental factors associated with preterm birth. 201 urine and blood markers of environmental factors, such as allergens, pollutants, and nutrients were assayed in mothers (range of N: 49-724) who answered questions about any children born preterm (delivery <37 weeks). We screened each of the 201 factors for association with any child born preterm adjusting by age, race/ethnicity, education, and household income. We attempted to verify the top finding, urinary bisphenol A, in an independent study of pregnant women attending Lucile Packard Children's Hospital. We conclude that the association between maternal urinary levels of bisphenol A and preterm birth should be evaluated in a larger epidemiological investigation.