ABSTRACT
Risk prediction tools for colorectal cancer (CRC) have potential to improve the efficiency of population-based screening by facilitating risk-adapted strategies. However, such an applicable tool has yet to be established in the Chinese population. In this study, a risk score was created using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), a nationwide cohort study of 409,854 eligible participants. Diagnostic performance of the risk score was evaluated in an independent CRC screening programme, which included 91,575 participants who accepted colonoscopy at designed hospitals in Zhejiang Province, China. Over a median follow-up of 11.1 years, 3136 CRC cases were documented in the CKB. A risk score was created based on nine questionnaire-derived variables, showing moderate discrimination for 10-year CRC risk (C-statistic = 0.68, 95 % CI: 0.67-0.69). In the CRC screening programme, the detection rates of CRC were 0.25 %, 0.82 %, and 1.93 % in low-risk (score <6), intermediate-risk (score: 6-19), and high-risk (score >19) groups, respectively. The newly developed score exhibited a C-statistic of 0.65 (95 % CI: 0.63-0.66), surpassing the widely adopted tools such as the Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), modified APCS, and Korean Colorectal Screening scores (all C-statistics = 0.60). In conclusion, we developed a novel risk prediction tool that is useful to identify individuals at high risk of CRC. A user-friendly online calculator was also constructed to encourage broader adoption of the tool.
ABSTRACT
Obesity is a leading contributor to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but the metabolic mechanisms linking obesity to CRC are not fully understood. We leveraged untargeted metabolomics data from two 1:1 matched, nested case-control studies for CRC, including 223 pairs from the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial and 190 pairs from a prospective Chinese cohort. We explored serum metabolites related to body mass index (BMI), constructed a metabolomic signature of obesity, and examined the association between the signature and CRC risk. In total, 72 of 278 named metabolites were correlated with BMI after multiple testing corrections (p FDR < 0.05). The metabolomic signature was calculated by including 39 metabolites that were independently associated with BMI. There was a linear positive association between the signature and CRC risk in both cohorts (p for linear < 0.05). Per 1-SD increment of the signature was associated with 38% (95% CI: 9-75%) and 28% (95% CI: 2-62%) higher risks of CRC in the US and Chinese cohorts, respectively. In conclusion, we identified a metabolomic signature for obesity and demonstrated the association between the signature and CRC risk. The findings offer new insights into the underlying mechanisms of CRC, which is critical for improved CRC prevention.
