Modeling the suppression dynamics of Aedes mosquitoes with mating inhomogeneity.

A novel strategy for controlling mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and Zika, involves releases of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes as Wolbachia cause early embryo death when an infected male mates with an uninfected female. In this work, we introduce a delay differential equation model with mating inhomogeneity to discuss mosquito population suppression based on Wolbachia. Our analyses show that the wild mosquitoes could be eliminated if either the adult mortality rate exceeds the threshold [Formula: see text] or the release amount exceeds the threshold [Formula: see text] uniformly. We also present the nonlinear dependence of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] on the parameters, respectively, as well as the effect of pesticide spraying on wild mosquitoes. Our simulations suggest that the releasing should be started at least 5 weeks before the peak dengue season, taking into account both the release amount and the suppression speed.

Wolbachia spread dynamics in multi-regimes of environmental conditions.

Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever and Zika kill more than 700,000 people each year in the world. A novel strategy to control these diseases employs the bacterium Wolbachia whose infection in mosquitoes blocks virus replication. The prerequisite for this measure is to release Wolbachia -infected mosquitoes to replace wild population. Due to the fluctuation of environmental conditions for mosquito growth, we develop and analyze a model of differential equations with parameters randomly changing over multiple environmental regimes. By comparing the dynamics between the stochastic system and constructed auxiliary systems, combined with other techniques, we provide sharp estimates on the threshold releasing level for Wolbachia fixation. We define the alarm period of disease transmission to measure the risk of mosquito-borne diseases. Our numerical simulations suggest that more frequent inter-regime transitions help reduce the alarm period, and the disease transmission is more sensitive to the average climatic conditions than the number of sub-regimes over a given time period. Further numerical examples also indicate that the reduction in the waiting time to suppress 95% of wild population is more evident when the releasing amount is increased up to a double of the wild population.

Complex wolbachia infection dynamics in mosquitoes with imperfect maternal transmission.

Dengue, malaria, and Zika are dangerous diseases primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, and Anopheles stephensi. In the last few years, a new disease control method, besides pesticide spraying to kill mosquitoes, has been developed by releasing mosquitoes carrying bacterium Wolbachia into the natural areas to infect the wild population of mosquitoes and block disease transmission. The bacterium is transmitted by infected mothers and the maternal transmission was assumed to be perfect in virtually all previous models. However, recent experiments on Aedes aegypti and Anopheles stephensi showed that the transmission can be imperfect. In this work, we develop a model to describe how the imperfect maternal transmission affects the dynamics of Wolbachia spread. We establish two useful identities and employ them to find sufficient and necessary conditions under which the system exhibits monomorphic, bistable, and polymorphic dynamics. These analytical results may help find a plausible explanation for the recent observation that the Wolbachia strain ωMelPop failed to establish in the natural populations in Australia and Vietnam.

Assessing the efficiency of Wolbachia driven Aedes mosquito suppression by delay differential equations.

To suppress wild population of Aedes mosquitoes, the primary transmission vector of life-threatening diseases such as dengue, malaria, and Zika, an innovative strategy is to release male mosquitoes carrying the bacterium Wolbachia into natural areas to drive female sterility by cytoplasmic incompatibility. We develop a model of delay differential equations, incorporating the strong density restriction in the larval stage, to assess the delicate impact of life table parameters on suppression efficiency. Through mathematical analysis, we find the sufficient and necessary condition for global stability of the complete suppression state. This condition, combined with the experimental data for Aedes albopictus population in Guangzhou, helps us predict a large range of releasing intensities for suppression success. In particular, we find that if the number of released infected males is no less than four times the number of mosquitoes in wild areas, then the mosquito density in the peak season can be reduced by 95%. We introduce an index to quantify the dependence of suppression efficiency on parameters. The invariance of some quantitative properties of the index values under various perturbations of the same parameter justifies the applicability of this index, and the robustness of our modeling approach. The index yields a ranking of the sensitivity of all parameters, among which the adult mortality has the highest sensitivity and is considerably more sensitive than the natural larvae mortality.

Wolbachia spread dynamics in stochastic environments.

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease with 100 million people infected annually. A novel strategy for dengue control uses the bacterium Wolbachia to invade dengue vector Aedes mosquitoes. As the impact of environmental heterogeneity on Wolbachia spread dynamics in natural areas has been rarely quantified, we develop a model of differential equations for which the environmental conditions switch randomly between two regimes. We find some striking phenomena that random regime transitions could drive Wolbachia to extinction from certain initial states confirmed Wolbachia fixation in homogeneous environments, and mosquito releasing facilitates Wolbachia invasion more effectively when the regimes transit frequently. By superimposing the phase spaces of the ODE systems defined in each regime, we identify the threshold curves below which Wolbachia invades the whole population, which extends the theory of threshold infection frequency to stochastic environments.