Predicting Influenza Epidemic for United States.

Influenza causes repeat epidemics and huge loss of lives and properties. To predict influenza epidemics, we proposed an infectious disease dynamic prediction model with control variables (SEIR-CV), which considers the characteristics of the influenza epidemic transmission, seasonal impacts, and the intensity changes of control measures over time. The critical parameters of the model were inversed using an adjoint method. When using the surveillance data of the past 15 weeks to invert the parameters, the epidemic in the next 3 weeks in the United States can be accurately predicted. In addition, roll predictions from 26 September 2016 to 27 September 2018 were implemented. The correlation coefficient between the predicted values and the surveillance values was greater than 0.975, and the overall relative error of the predictions was less than 10%. These good model performances demonstrated the practicability and feasibility of SEIR-CV for influenza and corresponding infectious disease prediction.

[Analysis of CX32 gene mutation and related clinical features in Chinese Han Charcot-Marie-Tooth families].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the mutation of CX32 gene and related clinical features in Chinese Han patients with Charcot-Marie-Tooth (CMT) disease. METHODS: Thirty-four CMT families, from 2004 to 2011 at Departments of Neurology, Xiangya Hospital, Third Xiangya Hospital and National Key Laboratory of Medical Genetics, were selected for CX32 mutation screening after the exclusion of the PMP22 duplication and male-to-male transmission. Mutation analysis was carried out by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) plus direct sequencing. Analyses of clinical, electrophysiological and pathological features in 11 patients from 6 CMTX1 families were performed by 2 neurologists. RESULTS: Five CX32 gene mutations were detected in 6 CMT families: c.37G > A, c.65G > A, c.246C > G, c.256A > G and c.533A > G. Among them, c.246C > G and c.533A > G were firstly reported. The clinical manifestations included progressive distal muscle atrophy and weakness, areflexia, sensory abnormalities and pes vacus. Nerve conduction velocity ranged from 21.7 to 49.3 m/s. Both demyelination and axonal degeneration were detected in nerve biopsy. CONCLUSIONS: CMT1X has a frequency of around 9% in our study. The male patients tend to have more serious clinical features and their electrophysiological and pathological changes are intermediate. CX32 mutation analysis helps to confirm the genetic diagnosis of CMT so as to provide genetic counseling and reproductive guidance and elucidate its pathogenesis.