A value of information framework for assessing the trade-offs associated with uncertainty, duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing.

A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision-making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk-based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade-offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity-testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return-on-investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.

A Framework that Considers the Impacts of Time, Cost, and Uncertainty in the Determination of the Cost Effectiveness of Toxicity-Testing Methodologies.

Regulatory agencies are required to evaluate the impacts of thousands of chemicals. Toxicological tests currently used in such evaluations are time-consuming and resource intensive; however, advances in toxicology and related fields are providing new testing methodologies that reduce the cost and time required for testing. The selection of a preferred methodology is challenging because the new methodologies vary in duration and cost, and the data they generate vary in the level of uncertainty. This article presents a framework for performing cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of toxicity tests that account for cost, duration, and uncertainty. This is achieved by using an output metric-the cost per correct regulatory decision-that reflects the three elements. The framework is demonstrated in two example CEAs, one for a simple decision of risk acceptability and a second, more complex decision, involving the selection of regulatory actions. Each example CEA evaluates five hypothetical toxicity-testing methodologies which differ with respect to cost, time, and uncertainty. The results of the examples indicate that either a fivefold reduction in cost or duration can be a larger driver of the selection of an optimal toxicity-testing methodology than a fivefold reduction in uncertainty. Uncertainty becomes of similar importance to cost and duration when decisionmakers are required to make more complex decisions that require the determination of small differences in risk predictions. The framework presented in this article may provide a useful basis for the identification of cost-effective methods for toxicity testing of large numbers of chemicals.

Knowing Your Audience: A Typology of Smoke Sense Participants to Inform Wildfire Smoke Health Risk Communication.

Central to public health risk communication is understanding the perspectives and shared values among individuals who need the information. Using the responses from a Smoke Sense citizen science project, we examined perspectives on the issue of wildfire smoke as a health risk in relation to an individual's preparedness to adopt recommended health behaviors. The Smoke Sense smartphone application provides wildfire-related health risk resources and invites participants to record their perspectives on the issue of wildfire smoke. Within the app, participants can explore current and forecasted daily air quality, maps of fire locations, satellite images of smoke plumes, and learn about health consequences of wildfire smoke. We used cluster analysis to identify perspective trait-clusters based on health status, experience with fire smoke, risk perception, self-efficacy, access to exposure-reducing resources, health information needs, and openness to health risk messaging. Differences between traits were examined based on demographics, health status, activity level and engagement with the app. We mapped these traits to the Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM) to indicate where each trait lies in adopting recommended health behaviors. Finally, we suggest messaging strategies that may be suitable for each trait. We determined five distinct perspective traits which included individuals who were Protectors and have decided to engage on the issue by adopting new behaviors to protect their health; Cautious, Proactive, and Susceptible individuals who were at a Deciding stage but differed based on risk perceptions and information needs; and the Unengaged who did not perceive smoke as a health issue and were unlikely to change behavior in response to messaging. Across all five traits, the level of engagement and information needs differed substantially, but were not defined by demographics. Individuals in the Susceptible trait had the highest level of engagement and the highest information needs. Messaging that emphasizes self-efficacy and benefits of reducing exposure may be effective in motivating individuals from the deciding stage to taking health protective action. Shared perspectives define an individual's propensity for acting on recommended health behaviors, therefore, health risk message content should be tailored based on these perspectives.

Understanding social and behavioral drivers and impacts of air quality sensor use.

BACKGROUND: Lower-cost air quality sensors (hundreds to thousands of dollars) are now available to individuals and communities. This technology is undergoing a rapid and fragmented evolution, resulting in sensors that have uncertain data quality, measure different air pollutants and possess a variety of design attributes. Why and how individuals and communities choose to use sensors is arguably influenced by social context. For example, community experiences with environmental exposures and health effects and related interactions with industry and government can affect trust in traditional air quality monitoring. To date, little social science research has been conducted to evaluate why or how sensors, and sensor data, are used by individuals and communities, or how the introduction of sensors changes the relationship between communities and air quality managers. OBJECTIVES: This commentary uses a risk governance/responsible innovation framework to identify opportunities for interdisciplinary research that brings together social scientists with air quality researchers involved in developing, testing, and deploying sensors in communities. DISCUSSION: Potential areas for social science research include communities of sensor users; drivers for use of sensors and sensor data; behavioral, socio-political, and ethical implications of introducing sensors into communities; assessing methods for communicating sensor data; and harnessing crowdsourcing capabilities to analyze sensor data. CONCLUSIONS: Social sciences can enhance understanding of perceptions, attitudes, behaviors, and other human factors that drive levels of engagement with and trust in different types of air quality data. New transdisciplinary research bridging social sciences, natural sciences, engineering, and design fields of study, and involving citizen scientists working with professionals from a variety of backgrounds, can increase our understanding of air sensor technology use and its impacts on air quality and public health.

Meta-Analysis Methods to Estimate the Shape and Uncertainty in the Association Between Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter and Cause-Specific Mortality Over the Global Concentration Range.

Estimates of excess mortality associated with exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter have been obtained from either a single cohort study or pooling information from a small number of studies. However, standard frequentist methods of pooling are known to underestimate statistical uncertainty in the true risk distribution when the number of studies pooled is small. Alternatively, Bayesian pooling methods using noninformative priors yield unrealistically large amounts of uncertainty in this case. We present a new hybrid frequentist-bayesian framework for meta-analysis that incorporates features of both frequentist and Bayesian approaches, yielding estimated uncertainty distributions that are more useful for burden estimation. We also present an example of mortality risk due to long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter obtained from a small number of cohort studies conducted in the United States and Europe. We compare our new risk uncertainty distribution to that obtained by the integrated exposure-response (IER) model used in the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project for which risk was modeled over the entire global concentration range. We suggest a method to incorporate our new risk uncertainty distribution based on the relatively low concentrations observed in the United States and western Europe into the IER model, thus extending risk estimation to the global concentration range.

Analysis of alternative pathways for reducing nitrogen oxide emissions.

UNLABELLED: Strategies for reducing tropospheric ozone (O3) typically include modifying combustion processes to reduce the formation of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and applying control devices that remove NOx from the exhaust gases of power plants, industrial sources and vehicles. For portions of the U.S., these traditional controls may not be sufficient to achieve the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone. We apply the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model in a sensitivity analysis to explore whether additional NOx reductions can be achieved through extensive electrification of passenger vehicles, adoption of energy efficiency and conservation measures within buildings, and deployment of wind and solar power in the electric sector. Nationally and for each region of the country, we estimate the NOx implications of these measures. Energy efficiency and renewable electricity are shown to reduce NOx beyond traditional controls. Wide-spread light duty vehicle electrification produces varied results, with NOx increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. However, combining vehicle electrification with renewable electricity reduces NOx in all regions. IMPLICATIONS: State governments are charged with developing plans that demonstrate how air quality standards will be met and maintained. The results presented here provide an indication of the national and regional NOx reductions available beyond traditional controls via extensive adoption of energy efficiency, renewable electricity, and vehicle electrification.

Outdoor fine particles and nonfatal strokes: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies find that long- and short-term exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, including ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. However, few systematic reviews or meta-analyses have synthesized these results. METHODS: We reviewed epidemiologic studies that estimated the risks of nonfatal strokes attributable to ambient PM2.5. To pool risks among studies we used a random-effects model and 2 Bayesian approaches. The first Bayesian approach assumes a normal prior that allows risks to be zero, positive or negative. The second assumes a gamma prior, where risks can only be positive. This second approach is proposed when the number of studies pooled is small, and there is toxicological or clinical literature to support a causal relation. RESULTS: We identified 20 studies suitable for quantitative meta-analysis. Evidence for publication bias is limited. The frequentist meta-analysis produced pooled risk ratios of 1.06 (95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.13) and 1.007 (1.003-1.010) for long- and short-term effects, respectively. The Bayesian meta-analysis found a posterior mean risk ratio of 1.08 (95% posterior interval = 0.96-1.26) and 1.008 (1.003-1.013) from a normal prior, and of 1.05 (1.02-1.10) and 1.008 (1.004-1.013) from a gamma prior, for long- and short-term effects, respectively, per 10 µg/m PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: Sufficient evidence exists to develop a concentration-response relation for short- and long-term exposures to PM2.5 and stroke incidence. Long-term exposures to PM2.5 result in a higher risk ratio than short-term exposures, regardless of the pooling method. The evidence for short-term PM2.5-related ischemic stroke is especially strong.

Estimating the national public health burden associated with exposure to ambient PM2.5 and ozone.

Ground-level ozone (O(3)) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) are associated with increased risk of mortality. We quantify the burden of modeled 2005 concentrations of O(3) and PM(2.5) on health in the United States. We use the photochemical Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in conjunction with ambient monitored data to create fused surfaces of summer season average 8-hour ozone and annual mean PM(2.5) levels at a 12 km grid resolution across the continental United States. Employing spatially resolved demographic and concentration data, we assess the spatial and age distribution of air-pollution-related mortality and morbidity. For both PM(2.5) and O(3) we also estimate: the percentage of total deaths due to each pollutant; the reduction in life years and life expectancy; and the deaths avoided according to hypothetical air quality improvements. Using PM(2.5) and O(3) mortality risk coefficients drawn from the long-term American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study and National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), respectively, we estimate 130,000 PM(2.5) -related deaths and 4,700 ozone-related deaths to result from 2005 air quality levels. Among populations aged 65-99, we estimate nearly 1.1 million life years lost from PM(2.5) exposure and approximately 36,000 life years lost from ozone exposure. Among the 10 most populous counties, the percentage of deaths attributable to PM(2.5) and ozone ranges from 3.5% in San Jose to 10% in Los Angeles. These results show that despite significant improvements in air quality in recent decades, recent levels of PM(2.5) and ozone still pose a nontrivial risk to public health.

Maximizing health benefits and minimizing inequality: incorporating local-scale data in the design and evaluation of air quality policies.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency undertook a case study in the Detroit metropolitan area to test the viability of a new multipollutant risk-based (MP/RB) approach to air quality management, informed by spatially resolved air quality, population, and baseline health data. The case study demonstrated that the MP/RB approach approximately doubled the human health benefits achieved by the traditional approach while increasing cost less than 20%--moving closer to the objective of Executive Order 12866 to maximize net benefits. Less well understood is how the distribution of health benefits from the MP/RB and traditional strategies affect the existing inequalities in air-pollution-related risks in Detroit. In this article, we identify Detroit populations that may be both most susceptible to air pollution health impacts (based on local-scale baseline health data) and most vulnerable to air pollution (based on fine-scale PM(2.5) air quality modeling and socioeconomic characteristics). Using these susceptible/vulnerable subpopulation profiles, we assess the relative impacts of each control strategy on risk inequality, applying the Atkinson Index (AI) to quantify health risk inequality at baseline and with either risk management approach. We find that the MP/RB approach delivers greater air quality improvements among these subpopulations while also generating substantial benefits among lower-risk populations. Applying the AI, we confirm that the MP/RB strategy yields less PM(2.5) mortality and asthma hospitalization risk inequality than the traditional approach. We demonstrate the value of this approach to policymakers as they develop cost-effective air quality management plans that maximize risk reduction while minimizing health inequality.

The influence of location, source, and emission type in estimates of the human health benefits of reducing a ton of air pollution.

The benefit per ton ($/ton) of reducing PM(2.5) varies by the location of the emission reduction, the type of source emitting the precursor, and the specific precursor controlled. This paper examines how each of these factors influences the magnitude of the $/ton estimate. We employ a reduced-form air quality model to predict changes in ambient PM(2.5) resulting from an array of emission control scenarios affecting 12 different combinations of sources emitting carbonaceous particles, NO(x), SO(x), NH(3), and volatile organic compounds. We perform this modeling for each of nine urban areas and one nationwide area. Upon modeling the air quality change, we then divide the total monetized health benefits by the PM(2.5) precursor emission reductions to generate $/ton metrics. The resulting $/ton estimates exhibit the greatest variability across certain precursors and sources such as area source SO(x), point source SO(x), and mobile source NH(3). Certain $/ton estimates, including mobile source NO(x), exhibit significant variability across urban areas. Reductions in carbonaceous particles generate the largest $/ton across all locations.

Expert judgment assessment of the mortality impact of changes in ambient fine particulate matter in the U.S.

In this paper, we present findings from a multiyear expert judgment study that comprehensively characterizes uncertainty in estimates of mortality reductions associated with decreases in fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) in the U.S. Appropriate characterization of uncertainty is critical because mortality-related benefits represent up to 90% of the monetized benefits reported in the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) analyses of proposed air regulations. Numerous epidemiological and toxicological studies have evaluated the PM(2.5)-mortality association and investigated issues that may contribute to uncertainty in the concentration-response (C-R) function, such as exposure misclassification and potential confounding from other pollutant exposures. EPA's current uncertainty analysis methods rely largely on standard errors in published studies. However, no one study can capture the full suite of issues that arise in quantifying the C-R relationship. Therefore, EPA has applied state-of-the-art expert judgment elicitation techniques to develop probabilistic uncertainty distributions that reflect the broader array of uncertainties in the C-R relationship. These distributions, elicited from 12 of the world's leading experts on this issue, suggest both potentially larger central estimates of mortality reductions for decreases in long-term PM(2.5) exposure in the U.S. and a wider distribution of uncertainty than currently employed in EPA analyses.

Health-related benefits of attaining the 8-hr ozone standard.

During the 2000-2002 time period, between 36 and 56% of ozone monitors each year in the United States failed to meet the current ozone standard of 80 ppb for the fourth highest maximum 8-hr ozone concentration. We estimated the health benefits of attaining the ozone standard at these monitors using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program. We used health impact functions based on published epidemiologic studies, and valuation functions derived from the economics literature. The estimated health benefits for 2000 and 2001 are similar in magnitude, whereas the results for 2002 are roughly twice that of each of the prior 2 years. The simple average of health impacts across the 3 years includes reductions of 800 premature deaths, 4,500 hospital and emergency department admissions, 900,000 school absences, and > 1 million minor restricted activity days. The simple average of benefits (including premature mortality) across the 3 years is 5.7 billion dollars [90% confidence interval (CI), 0.6-15.0] for the quadratic rollback simulation method and 4.9 billion dollars (90% CI, 0.5-14.0) for the proportional rollback simulation method. Results are sensitive to the form of the standard and to assumptions about background ozone levels. If the form of the standard is based on the first highest maximum 8-hr concentration, impacts are increased by a factor of 2-3. Increasing the assumed hourly background from zero to 40 ppb reduced impacts by 30 and 60% for the proportional and quadratic attainment simulation methods, respectively.