Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial.

Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no divergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of transient meltwater simulations shows that Antarctic-sourced salinity anomalies can generate climate changes that are propagated globally via an atmospheric Rossby wave train.A challenge for testing mechanisms of past climate change is the precise correlation of palaeoclimate records. Here, through climate modelling and the alignment of terrestrial, ice and marine 14C and 10Be records, the authors show that Southern Ocean freshwater hosing can trigger global change.

CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change.

Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28-15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

PALEOECOLOGY. Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover.

The mechanisms of Late Pleistocene megafauna extinctions remain fiercely contested, with human impact or climate change cited as principal drivers. We compared ancient DNA and radiocarbon data from 31 detailed time series of regional megafaunal extinctions and replacements over the past 56,000 years with standard and new combined records of Northern Hemisphere climate in the Late Pleistocene. Unexpectedly, rapid climate changes associated with interstadial warming events are strongly associated with the regional replacement or extinction of major genetic clades or species of megafauna. The presence of many cryptic biotic transitions before the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary revealed by ancient DNA confirms the importance of climate change in megafaunal population extinctions and suggests that metapopulation structures necessary to survive such repeated and rapid climatic shifts were susceptible to human impacts.

Two centuries of limited variability in subtropical North Atlantic thermocline ventilation.

Ventilation and mixing of oceanic gyres is important to ocean-atmosphere heat and gas transfer, and to mid-latitude nutrient supply. The rates of mode water formation are believed to impact climate and carbon exchange between the surface and mid-depth water over decadal periods. Here, a record of (14)C/(12)C (1780-1940), which is a proxy for vertical ocean mixing, from an annually banded coral from Bermuda, shows limited inter-annual variability and a substantial Suess Effect (the decrease in (14)C/(12)C since 1900). The Sargasso Sea mixing rates between the surface and thermocline varied minimally over the past two centuries, despite changes to mean-hemispheric climate, including the Little Ice Age and variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation. This result indicates that regional formation rates of sub-tropical mode water are stable over decades, and that anthropogenic carbon absorbed by the ocean does not return to the surface at a variable rate.

Century-scale records of land-based activities recorded in Mesoamerican coral cores.

The Mesoamerican Reef, the second-largest barrier reef in the world, is located in the western Caribbean Sea off the coasts of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras. Particularly in the south, the surrounding watersheds are steep and the climate is extremely wet. With development and agricultural expansion, the potential for negative impacts to the reef from land-based runoff becomes high. We constructed annually resolved century-scale records of metal/calcium ratios in coral skeletons collected from four sites experiencing a gradient of land-based runoff. Our proxy data indicate that runoff onto the reef has increased relatively steadily over time at all sites, consistent with land use trends from historical records. Sediment supply to the reef is greater in the south, and these more exposed reefs will probably benefit most immediately from management that targets runoff reduction. However, because runoff at all sites is steadily increasing, even distal sites will benefit from watershed management.

Abrupt tropical vegetation response to rapid climate changes.

Identifying leads and lags between high- and low-latitude abrupt climate shifts is needed to understand where and how such events were triggered. Vascular plant biomarkers preserved in Cariaco basin sediments reveal rapid vegetation changes in northern South America during the last deglaciation, 15,000 to 10,000 years ago. Comparing the biomarker records to climate proxies from the same sediment core provides a precise measure of the relative timing of changes in different regions. Abrupt deglacial climate shifts in tropical and high-latitude North Atlantic regions were synchronous, whereas changes in tropical vegetation consistently lagged climate shifts by several decades.

Synchroneity of tropical and high-latitude Atlantic temperatures over the last glacial termination.

A high-resolution western tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) record from the Cariaco Basin on the northern Venezuelan shelf, based on Mg/Ca values in surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera, reveals that changes in SST over the last glacial termination are synchronous, within +/-30 to +/-90 years, with the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 air temperature proxy record and atmospheric methane record. The most prominent deglacial event in the Cariaco record occurred during the Younger Dryas time interval, when SSTs dropped by 3 degrees to 4 degrees C. A rapid southward shift in the atmospheric intertropical convergence zone could account for the synchroneity of tropical temperature, atmospheric methane, and high-latitude changes during the Younger Dryas.

Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization.

In the anoxic Cariaco Basin of the southern Caribbean, the bulk titanium content of undisturbed sediment reflects variations in riverine input and the hydrological cycle over northern tropical South America. A seasonally resolved record of titanium shows that the collapse of Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period occurred during an extended regional dry period, punctuated by more intense multiyear droughts centered at approximately 810, 860, and 910 A.D. These new data suggest that a century-scale decline in rainfall put a general strain on resources in the region, which was then exacerbated by abrupt drought events, contributing to the social stresses that led to the Maya demise.