Making Drug Approval Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty: Cumulative Evidence versus Value of Information.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the criticality and complexity of decision making for novel treatment approval and further research. Our study aims to assess potential decision-making methodologies, an evaluation vital for refining future public health crisis responses. METHODS: We compared 4 decision-making approaches to drug approval and research: the Food and Drug Administration's policy decisions, cumulative meta-analysis, a prospective value-of-information (VOI) approach (using information available at the time of decision), and a reference standard (retrospective VOI analysis using information available in hindsight). Possible decisions were to reject, accept, provide emergency use authorization, or allow access to new therapies only in research settings. We used monoclonal antibodies provided to hospitalized COVID-19 patients as a case study, examining the evidence from September 2020 to December 2021 and focusing on each method's capacity to optimize health outcomes and resource allocation. RESULTS: Our findings indicate a notable discrepancy between policy decisions and the reference standard retrospective VOI approach with expected losses up to $269 billion USD, suggesting suboptimal resource use during the wait for emergency use authorization. Relying solely on cumulative meta-analysis for decision making results in the largest expected loss, while the policy approach showed a loss up to $16 billion and the prospective VOI approach presented the least loss (up to $2 billion). CONCLUSION: Our research suggests that incorporating VOI analysis may be particularly useful for research prioritization and treatment implementation decisions during pandemics. While the prospective VOI approach was favored in this case study, further studies should validate the ideal decision-making method across various contexts. This study's findings not only enhance our understanding of decision-making strategies during a health crisis but also provide a potential framework for future pandemic responses. HIGHLIGHTS: This study reviews discrepancies between a reference standard (retrospective VOI, using hindsight information) and 3 conceivable real-time approaches to research-treatment decisions during a pandemic, suggesting suboptimal use of resources.Of all prospective decision-making approaches considered, VOI closely mirrored the reference standard, yielding the least expected value loss across our study timeline.This study illustrates the possible benefit of VOI results and the need for evidence accumulation accompanied by modeling in health technology assessment for emerging therapies.

Surgical and non-surgical interventions for primary and salvage treatment of growth hormone-secreting pituitary adenomas in adults.

BACKGROUND: Growth hormone (GH)-secreting pituitary adenoma is a severe endocrine disease. Surgery is the currently recommended primary therapy for patients with GH-secreting tumours. However, non-surgical therapy (pharmacological therapy and radiation therapy) may be performed as primary therapy or may improve surgical outcomes. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of surgical and non-surgical interventions for primary and salvage treatment of GH-secreting pituitary adenomas in adults. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, WHO ICTRP, and ClinicalTrials.gov. The date of the last search of all databases was 1 August 2022. We did not apply any language restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs of more than 12 weeks' duration, reporting on surgical, pharmacological, radiation, and combination interventions for GH-secreting pituitary adenomas in any healthcare setting. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts for relevance, screened for inclusion, completed data extraction, and performed a risk of bias assessment. We assessed studies for overall certainty of the evidence using GRADE. We estimated treatment effects using random-effects meta-analysis. We expressed results as risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous outcomes together with 95% confidence intervals (CI) or mean differences (MD) for continuous outcomes, or in descriptive format when meta-analysis was not possible. MAIN RESULTS: We included eight RCTs that evaluated 445 adults with GH-secreting pituitary adenomas. Four studies reported that they included participants with macroadenomas, one study included a small number of participants with microadenomas. The remaining studies did not specify tumour subtypes. Studies evaluated surgical therapy alone, pharmacological therapy alone, or combination surgical and pharmacological therapy. Methodological quality varied, with many studies providing insufficient information to compare treatment strategies or accurately judge the risk of bias. We identified two main comparisons, surgery alone versus pharmacological therapy alone, and surgery alone versus pharmacological therapy and surgery combined. Surgical therapy alone versus pharmacological therapy alone Three studies with a total of 164 randomised participants investigated this comparison. Only one study narratively described hyperglycaemia as a disease-related complication. All three studies reported adverse events, yet only one study reported numbers separately for the intervention arms; none of the 11 participants were observed to develop gallbladder stones or sludge on ultrasonography following surgery, while five of 11 participants experienced any biliary problems following pharmacological therapy (RR 0.09, 95% CI 0.01 to 1.47; 1 study, 22 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Health-related quality of life was reported to improve similarly in both intervention arms during follow-up. Surgery alone compared to pharmacological therapy alone may slightly increase the biochemical remission rate from 12 weeks to one year after intervention, but the evidence is very uncertain; 36/78 participants in the surgery-alone group versus 15/66 in the pharmacological therapy group showed biochemical remission. The need for additional surgery or non-surgical therapy for recurrent or persistent disease was described for single study arms only. Surgical therapy alone versus preoperative pharmacological therapy and surgery Five studies with a total of 281 randomised participants provided data for this comparison. Preoperative pharmacological therapy and surgery may have little to no effect on the disease-related complication of a difficult intubation (requiring postponement of surgery) compared to surgery alone, but the evidence is very uncertain (RR 2.00, 95% CI 0.19 to 21.34; 1 study, 98 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Surgery alone may have little to no effect on (transient and persistent) adverse events when compared to preoperative pharmacological therapy and surgery, but again, the evidence is very uncertain (RR 1.23, 95% CI 0.75 to 2.03; 5 studies, 267 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Concerning biochemical remission, surgery alone compared to preoperative pharmacological therapy and surgery may not increase remission rates up until 16 weeks after surgery; 23 of 134 participants in the surgery-alone group versus 51 of 133 in the preoperative pharmacological therapy and surgery group showed biochemical remission. Furthermore, the very low-certainty evidence did not suggest benefit or detriment of preoperative pharmacological therapy and surgery compared to surgery alone for the outcomes 'requiring additional surgery' (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.05 to 5.06; 1 study, 61 participants; very low-certainty evidence) or 'non-surgical therapy for recurrent or persistent disease' (RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.65 to 2.28; 2 studies, 100 participants; very low-certainty evidence). None of the included studies measured health-related quality of life. None of the eight included studies measured disease recurrence or socioeconomic effects. While three of the eight studies reported no deaths to have occurred, one study mentioned that overall, two participants had died within five years of the start of the study. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Within the context of GH-secreting pituitary adenomas, patient-relevant outcomes, such as disease-related complications, adverse events and disease recurrence were not, or only sparsely, reported. When reported, we found that surgery may have little or no effect on the outcomes compared to the comparator treatment. The current evidence is limited by the small number of included studies, as well as the unclear risk of bias in most studies. The high uncertainty of evidence significantly limits the applicability of our findings to clinical practice. Detailed reporting on the burden of recurrent disease is an important knowledge gap to be evaluated in future research studies. It is also crucial that future studies in this area are designed to report on outcomes by tumour subtype (that is, macroadenomas versus microadenomas) so that future subgroup analyses can be conducted. More rigorous and larger studies, powered to address these research questions, are required to assess the merits of neoadjuvant pharmacological therapy or first-line pharmacotherapy.

Potential Mediators for Treatment Effects of Novel Diabetes Medications on Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes: A Meta-Regression Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prior research suggests clinical effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) are mediated by changes in glycated hemoglobin, body weight, systolic blood pressure, hematocrit, and urine albumin-creatinine ratio. We aimed to confirm these findings using a meta-analytic approach. METHODS AND RESULTS: We updated a systematic review of 9 GLP-1RA and 13 SGLT2i trials and summarized longitudinal mediator data. We obtained hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular, renal, and mortality outcomes. We performed linear mixed-effects modeling of LogHRs versus changes in potential mediators and investigated differences in meta-regression associations among drug classes using interaction terms. HRs generally became more protective with greater glycated hemoglobin reduction among GLP-1RA trials, with average HR improvements of 20% to 30%, reaching statistical significance for major adverse cardiovascular events (ΔHR, 23%; P=0.02). Among SGLT2i trials, associations with HRs were not significant and differed from GLP1-RA trials for major adverse cardiovascular events (Pinteraction=0.04). HRs for major adverse cardiovascular events, myocardial infarction, and stroke became less efficacious (ΔHR, -15% to -34%), with more weight loss for SGLT2i but not for GLP-1RA trials (ΔHR, 4%-7%; Pinteraction<0.05). Among 5 SGLT2i trials with available data, HRs for stroke became less efficacious with larger increases in hematocrit (ΔHR, 123%; P=0.09). No changes in HRs by systolic blood pressure (ΔHR, -11% to 9%) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ΔHR, -1% to 4%) were found for any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed increased efficacy findings for major adverse cardiovascular events with reduction in glycated hemoglobin for GLP1-RAs. Further research is needed on the potential loss of cardiovascular benefits with increased weight loss and hematocrit for SGLT2i.

Second-Line Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: First-line treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) achieves durable remission in approximately 60% of patients. In relapsed or refractory disease, only about 20% achieve durable remission with salvage chemoimmunotherapy and consolidative autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). The ZUMA-7 (axicabtagene ciloleucel [axi-cel]) and TRANSFORM (lisocabtagene maraleucel [liso-cel]) trials demonstrated superior event-free survival (and, in ZUMA-7, overall survival) in primary-refractory or early-relapsed (high-risk) DLBCL with chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy (CAR-T) compared with salvage chemoimmunotherapy and consolidative ASCT; however, list prices for CAR-T exceed $400 000 per infusion. OBJECTIVE: To determine the cost-effectiveness of second-line CAR-T versus salvage chemoimmunotherapy and consolidative ASCT. DESIGN: State-transition microsimulation model. DATA SOURCES: ZUMA-7, TRANSFORM, other trials, and observational data. TARGET POPULATION: "High-risk" patients with DLBCL. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health care sector. INTERVENTION: Axi-cel or liso-cel versus ASCT. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) in 2022 U.S. dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $200 000 per QALY. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: The increase in median overall survival was 4 months for axi-cel and 1 month for liso-cel. For axi-cel, the ICER was $684 225 per QALY and the iNMB was -$107 642. For liso-cel, the ICER was $1 171 909 per QALY and the iNMB was -$102 477. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: To be cost-effective with a WTP of $200 000, the cost of CAR-T would have to be reduced to $321 123 for axi-cel and $313 730 for liso-cel. Implementation in high-risk patients would increase U.S. health care spending by approximately $6.8 billion over a 5-year period. LIMITATION: Differences in preinfusion bridging therapies precluded cross-trial comparisons. CONCLUSION: Neither second-line axi-cel nor liso-cel was cost-effective at a WTP of $200 000 per QALY. Clinical outcomes improved incrementally, but costs of CAR-T must be lowered substantially to enable cost-effectiveness. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: No research-specific funding.

Medical Imaging Decision And Support (MIDAS): Study protocol for a multi-centre cluster randomized trial evaluating the ESR iGuide.

OBJECTIVES: Medical imaging plays an essential role in healthcare. As a diagnostic test, imaging is prone to substantial overuse and potential overdiagnosis, with dire consequences to patient outcomes and health care costs. Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) were developed to guide referring physicians in making appropriate imaging decisions. This study will evaluate the effect of implementing a CDSS (ESR iGuide) with versus without active decision support in a physician order entry on the appropriate use of imaging tests and ordering behaviour. METHODS: A protocol for a multi-center cluster-randomized trial with departments acting as clusters, combined with a before-after-revert design. Four university hospitals with eight participating departments each for a total of thirty-two clusters will be included in the study. All departments start in control condition with structured data entry of the clinical indication and tracking of the imaging exams requested. Initially, the CDSS is implemented and all physicians remain blinded to appropriateness scores based on the ESR imaging referral guidelines. After randomization, half of the clusters switch to the active intervention of decision support. Physicians in the active condition are made aware of the categorization of their requests as appropriate, under certain conditions appropriate, or inappropriate, and appropriate exams are suggested. Physicians may change their requests in response to feedback. In the revert condition, active decision support is removed to study the educational effect. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The main outcome is the proportion of inappropriate diagnostic imaging exams requested per cluster. Secondary outcomes are the absolute number of imaging exams, radiation from diagnostic imaging, and medical costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Approval from the Medical Ethics Review Committee was obtained under protocol numbers 20-069 (Augsburg), B 238/21 (Kiel), 20-318 (Lübeck) and 2020-15,125 (Mainz). The trial is registered in the ClinicalTrials.gov register under registration number NCT05490290.

The effect of mindfulness-based interventions on reducing stress in future health professionals: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Students in health professions often face high levels of stress due to demanding academic schedules, heavy workloads, disrupted work-life balance, and sleep deprivation. Addressing stress during their education can prevent negative consequences for their mental health and the well-being of their future patients. Previous reviews on the effectiveness of mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) focused on working health professionals or included a wide range of intervention types and durations. This study aims to investigate the effect of 6- to 12-week MBIs with 1- to 2-h weekly sessions on stress in future health professionals. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials published in English by searching Embase, Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and PsycINFO. We used post-intervention stress levels and standard deviations to assess the ability of MBIs to reduce stress, summarized by the standardized mean difference (SMD). This review is reported according to the PRISMA checklist (2020). We identified 2932 studies, of which 11 were included in the systematic review and 10 had sufficient data for inclusion in the meta-analysis. The overall effect of MBIs on reducing stress was a SMD of 0.60 (95% CI [0.27, 0.94]). Our study provides evidence that MBIs have a moderate reducing effect on stress in students in health professions; however, given the high risk of bias, these findings should be interpreted with caution, and further high-quality studies are needed.

Cardiovascular and Renal Benefits of Novel Diabetes Drugs by Baseline Cardiovascular Risk: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Meta-regression.

BACKGROUND: Eligibility for glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) has been expanded to patients with diabetes at lower cardiovascular risk, but whether treatment benefits differ by risk levels is not clear. PURPOSE: To investigate whether patients with varying risks differ in cardiovascular and renal benefits from GLP-1RA and SGLT2i with use of meta-analysis and meta-regression. DATA SOURCES: We performed a systematic review using PubMed through 7 November 2022. STUDY SELECTION: We included reports of GLP-1RA and SGLT2i confirmatory randomized trials in adult patients with safety or efficacy end point data. DATA EXTRACTION: Hazard ratio (HR) and event rate data were extracted for mortality, cardiovascular, and renal outcomes. DATA SYNTHESIS: We analyzed 9 GLP-1RA and 13 SGLT2i trials comprising 154,649 patients. Summary HRs were significant for cardiovascular mortality (GLP-1RA 0.87 and SGLT2i 0.86), major adverse cardiovascular events (0.87 and 0.88), heart failure (0.89 and 0.70), and renal (0.84 and 0.65) outcomes. For stroke, efficacy was significant for GLP-1RA (0.84) but not for SGLT2i (0.92). Associations between control arm cardiovascular mortality rates and HRs were nonsignificant. Five-year absolute risk reductions (0.80-4.25%) increased to 11.6% for heart failure in SGLT2i trials in patients with high risk (Pslope < 0.001). For GLP1-RAs, associations were nonsignificant. LIMITATIONS: Analyses were limited by lack of patient-level data, consistency in end point definitions, and variation in cardiovascular mortality rates for GLP-1RA trials. CONCLUSIONS: Relative effects of novel diabetes drugs are preserved across baseline cardiovascular risk, whereas absolute benefits increase at higher risks, particularly regarding heart failure. Our findings suggest a need for baseline risk assessment tools to identify variation in absolute treatment benefits and improve decision-making.

An Introductory Tutorial on Cohort State-Transition Models in R Using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example.

Decision models can combine information from different sources to simulate the long-term consequences of alternative strategies in the presence of uncertainty. A cohort state-transition model (cSTM) is a decision model commonly used in medical decision making to simulate the transitions of a hypothetical cohort among various health states over time. This tutorial focuses on time-independent cSTM, in which transition probabilities among health states remain constant over time. We implement time-independent cSTM in R, an open-source mathematical and statistical programming language. We illustrate time-independent cSTMs using a previously published decision model, calculate costs and effectiveness outcomes, and conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of multiple strategies, including a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We provide open-source code in R to facilitate wider adoption. In a second, more advanced tutorial, we illustrate time-dependent cSTMs.

A Tutorial on Time-Dependent Cohort State-Transition Models in R Using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example.

In an introductory tutorial, we illustrated building cohort state-transition models (cSTMs) in R, where the state transition probabilities were constant over time. However, in practice, many cSTMs require transitions, rewards, or both to vary over time (time dependent). This tutorial illustrates adding 2 types of time dependence using a previously published cost-effectiveness analysis of multiple strategies as an example. The first is simulation-time dependence, which allows for the transition probabilities to vary as a function of time as measured since the start of the simulation (e.g., varying probability of death as the cohort ages). The second is state-residence time dependence, allowing for history by tracking the time spent in any particular health state using tunnel states. We use these time-dependent cSTMs to conduct cost-effectiveness and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. We also obtain various epidemiological outcomes of interest from the outputs generated from the cSTM, such as survival probability and disease prevalence, often used for model calibration and validation. We present the mathematical notation first, followed by the R code to execute the calculations. The full R code is provided in a public code repository for broader implementation.

Addition of FFRct in the diagnostic pathway of patients with stable chest pain to reduce unnecessary invasive coronary angiography (FUSION) : Rationale and design for the multicentre, randomised, controlled FUSION trial.

BACKGROUND: Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) is widely used in the diagnostic work-up of patients with stable chest pain. CCTA has an excellent negative predictive value, but a moderate positive predictive value for detecting coronary stenosis. Computed tomography-derived fractional flow reserve (FFRct) is a non-invasive, well-validated technique that provides functional assessment of coronary stenosis, improving the positive predictive value of CCTA. However, to determine the value of FFRct in routine clinical practice, a pragmatic randomised, controlled trial (RCT) is required. We will conduct an RCT to investigate the impact of adding FFRct analysis in the diagnostic pathway of patients with a coronary stenosis on CCTA on the rate of unnecessary invasive coronary angiography, cost-effectiveness, quality of life and clinical outcome. METHODS: The FUSION trial is a prospective, multicentre RCT that will randomise 528 patients with stable chest pain and anatomical stenosis of ≥ 50% but < 90% in at least one coronary artery of ≥ 2 mm on CCTA, to FFRct-guided care or usual care in a 1:1 ratio. Follow-up will be 1 year. The primary endpoint is the rate of unnecessary invasive coronary angiography within 90 days. CONCLUSION: The FUSION trial will evaluate the use of FFRct in stable chest pain patients from the Dutch perspective. The trial is funded by the Dutch National Health Care Institute as part of the research programme 'Potentially Promising Care' and the results will be used to assess if FFRct reimbursement should be included in the standard health care package.

DEcrease STress through RESilience training for Students (DESTRESS) Study: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial nested in a longitudinal observational cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic stress and burnout are highly prevalent among academically trained healthcare professionals, negatively affecting their well-being and capacity to engage in their work. Resilience to stress develops early in one's career path, hence offering resilience training to university students in these professions is one approach to fostering well-being and mental health. The aim of this study is to assess whether offering mindfulness-based resilience training to university students in healthcare professions reduces their perceived chronic stress. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study has a hybrid design combining a longitudinal observational cohort with a nested randomized controlled trial (RCT) with sequential multiple assignment and multistage adaptive interventions while taking participants' preferences into account. All students in healthcare related programmes at the Erasmus University Rotterdam are invited to participate. Within the observational cohort, students with a score of 14 or higher on the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) are invited to take part in the RCT (n = 706). Eligible participants are randomized to control or active intervention in a ratio of 1:6. Those randomized to the control group and non-randomized participants in the cohort receive passive web-based psychoeducation about chronic stress and burnout through referral to specific websites. Participants randomized to the intervention group receive one of 8 active mindfulness-based interventions. They select a rank order of 4 preferred interventions and are randomized across these with equal probability. Non-response to the intervention is followed by sequential randomized assignment to another intervention, for a total maximum of 3 sequential interventions. All participants receive questionnaires at baseline, before and after each 8-week intervention period, and at 1- and 2-year follow-up. The primary outcome is perceived chronic stress measured with the PSS. Secondary outcomes include mental well-being, burnout, quality of life, healthcare utilization, drug use, bodyweight, mental and physical stress-related symptoms, resilience, and study progress. ETHICS AND REGISTRATION: Approval from the Medical Ethics Review Committee was obtained under protocol number MEC-2018-1645. The trial is registered in the Netherlands National Trial Register by registration number NL7623, 22/03/2019, https://www.trialregister.nl/.

Emerging Therapies for COVID-19: The Value of Information From More Clinical Trials.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic necessitates time-sensitive policy and implementation decisions regarding new therapies in the face of uncertainty. This study aimed to quantify consequences of approving therapies or pursuing further research: immediate approval, use only in research, approval with research (eg, emergency use authorization), or reject. METHODS: Using a cohort state-transition model for hospitalized patients with COVID-19, we estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs associated with the following interventions: hydroxychloroquine, remdesivir, casirivimab-imdevimab, dexamethasone, baricitinib-remdesivir, tocilizumab, lopinavir-ritonavir, interferon beta-1a, and usual care. We used the model outcomes to conduct cost-effectiveness and value of information analyses from a US healthcare perspective and a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Assuming a $100 000-per-QALY willingness-to-pay threshold, only remdesivir, casirivimab-imdevimab, dexamethasone, baricitinib-remdesivir, and tocilizumab were (cost-) effective (incremental net health benefit 0.252, 0.164, 0.545, 0.668, and 0.524 QALYs and incremental net monetary benefit $25 249, $16 375, $54 526, $66 826, and $52 378). Our value of information analyses suggest that most value can be obtained if these 5 therapies are approved for immediate use rather than requiring additional randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (net value $20.6 billion, $13.4 billion, $7.4 billion, $54.6 billion, and $7.1 billion), hydroxychloroquine (net value $198 million) is only used in further RCTs if seeking to demonstrate decremental cost-effectiveness and otherwise rejected, and interferon beta-1a and lopinavir-ritonavir are rejected (ie, neither approved nor additional RCTs). CONCLUSIONS: Estimating the real-time value of collecting additional evidence during the pandemic can inform policy makers and clinicians about the optimal moment to implement therapies and whether to perform further research.

Lifetime Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Coronary Artery Calcium Score in Individuals With and Without Diabetes: An Analysis From the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by coronary artery calcium (CAC) score in individuals with diabetes from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and compare risk with that in individuals without diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model with well, diabetes, post-CVD, and death health states using multivariable time-dependent Cox regression with age as time scale. We initially used 10-year follow-up data of 6,769 MESA participants, including coronary heart disease (CHD) (n = 272), heart failure (n = 201), stroke (n = 186), and competing death (n = 619) and assessed predictive validity at 15 years. We externally validated the model in matched National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) participants. Subsequently, we predicted CVD risk until age 100 years by diabetes, 10-year pooled cohort equations risk, and CAC score category (0, 1-100, or 100+). RESULTS: The model showed good calibration and discriminative performance at 15 years, with discrimination indices 0.71-0.78 across outcomes. In the NHANES cohort, predicted 15-year mortality risk corresponded well with Kaplan-Meier risk, especially for those with diabetes: 29.6% (95% CI 24.9-34.8) vs. 32.4% (95% CI 27.2-37.2), respectively. Diabetes increased lifetime CVD risk, similar to shifting one CAC category upward (from 0 to 1-100 or from 1-100 to 100+). Patients with diabetes and CAC score of 0 had a lifetime CVD risk that overlapped with that of individuals without diabetes who were at low 10-year pooled cohort equations risk (<7.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with diabetes carry a spectrum of CVD risk. CAC scoring may improve decisions for preventive interventions for patients with diabetes by better delineating lifetime CVD risk.

PET-Based Staging Is Cost-Effective in Early-Stage Follicular Lymphoma.

The objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of staging PET/CT in early-stage follicular lymphoma (FL) from the Canadian health-care system perspective. Methods: The study population was FL patients staged as early-stage using conventional CT imaging and planned for curative-intent radiation therapy (RT). A decision analytic model simulated the management after adding staging PET/CT versus using staging CT alone. In the no-PET/CT strategy, all patients proceeded to curative-intent RT as planned. In the PET/CT strategy, PET/CT information could result in an increased RT volume, switching to a noncurative approach, or no change in RT treatment as planned. The subsequent disease course was described using a state-transition cohort model over a 30-y time horizon. Diagnostic characteristics, probabilities, utilities, and costs were derived from the literature. Baseline analysis was performed using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs (2019 Canadian dollars), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted, evaluating net monetary benefit at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using 10,000 simulations was performed. Costs and QALYs were discounted at a rate of 1.5%. Results: In the reference case scenario, staging PET/CT was the dominant strategy, resulting in an average lifetime cost saving of $3,165 and a gain of 0.32 QALYs. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, the PET/CT strategy remained the preferred strategy for all scenarios supported by available data. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the PET/CT strategy was strongly dominant in 77% of simulations (i.e., reduced cost and increased QALYs) and was cost-effective in 89% of simulations (i.e., either saved costs or had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below $100,000/QALY). Conclusion: Our analysis showed that the use of PET/CT to stage early-stage FL patients reduces cost and improves QALYs. Patients with early-stage FL should undergo PET/CT before curative-intent RT.

Endovascular Revascularization Plus Supervised Exercise Versus Supervised Exercise Only for Intermittent Claudication: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

[Figure: see text].

Prioritisation and design of clinical trials.

Clinical trials require participation of numerous patients, enormous research resources and substantial public funding. Time-consuming trials lead to delayed implementation of beneficial interventions and to reduced benefit to patients. This manuscript discusses two methods for the allocation of research resources and reviews a framework for prioritisation and design of clinical trials. The traditional error-driven approach of clinical trial design controls for type I and II errors. However, controlling for those statistical errors has limited relevance to policy makers. Therefore, this error-driven approach can be inefficient, waste research resources and lead to research with limited impact on daily practice. The novel value-driven approach assesses the currently available evidence and focuses on designing clinical trials that directly inform policy and treatment decisions. Estimating the net value of collecting further information, prior to undertaking a trial, informs a decision maker whether a clinical or health policy decision can be made with current information or if collection of extra evidence is justified. Additionally, estimating the net value of new information guides study design, data collection choices, and sample size estimation. The value-driven approach ensures the efficient use of research resources, reduces unnecessary burden to trial participants, and accelerates implementation of beneficial healthcare interventions.

Long-term Predictions of Incident Coronary Artery Calcium to 85 Years of Age for Asymptomatic Individuals With and Without Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the utility of repeated computed tomography (CT) coronary artery calcium (CAC) testing, we assessed risks of detectable CAC and its cardiovascular consequences in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes ages 45-85 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included 5,836 individuals (618 with type 2 diabetes, 2,972 without baseline CAC) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. With logistic and Cox regression we evaluated the impact of type 2 diabetes, diabetes treatment duration, and other predictors on prevalent and incident CAC. We used time-dependent Cox modeling of follow-up data (median 15.9 years) for two repeat CT exams and cardiovascular events to assess the association of CAC at follow-up CT with cardiovascular events. RESULTS: For 45 year olds with type 2 diabetes, the likelihood of CAC at baseline was 23% vs. 17% for those without. Median age at incident CAC was 52.2 vs. 62.3 years for those with and without diabetes, respectively. Each 5 years of diabetes treatment increased the odds and hazard rate of CAC by 19% (95% CI 8-33) and 22% (95% CI 6-41). Male sex, White ethnicity/race, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, and low serum creatinine also increased CAC. CAC at follow-up CT independently increased coronary heart disease rates. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated cumulative CAC incidence to age 85 years. Patients with type 2 diabetes develop CAC at a younger age than those without diabetes. Because incident CAC is associated with increased coronary heart disease risk, the value of periodic CAC-based risk assessment in type 2 diabetes should be evaluated.

Estimating Long-Term Health Utility Scores and Expenditures for Cardiovascular Disease From the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

BACKGROUND: Long-term health utility scores and costs used in cost-effectiveness analyses of cardiovascular disease prevention and management can be inconsistent, outdated, or invalid for the diverse population of the United States. Our aim was to develop a user friendly, standardized, publicly available code and catalog to derive more valid long-term values for health utility and expenditures following cardiovascular disease events. METHODS: Individual-level Short Form-12 version 2 health-related quality of life and expenditure data were obtained from the pooled 2011 to 2016 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys. We developed code using the R programming language to estimate preference-weighted Short Form-6D utility scores from the Short Form-12 for quality-adjusted life year calculations and predict annual health care expenditures. Result predictors included cardiovascular disease diagnosis (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, heart failure, cardiac dysrhythmias, angina pectoris, and peripheral artery disease), sociodemographic factors, and comorbidity variables. RESULTS: The cardiovascular disease diagnoses with the lowest utility scores were heart failure (0.635 [95% CI, 0.615-0.655]), angina pectoris (0.649 [95% CI, 0.630-0.667]), and ischemic stroke (0.649 [95% CI, 0.635-0.663]). The highest annual expenditures were for heart failure ($20 764 [95% CI, $17 500-$24 027]), angina pectoris ($18 428 [95% CI, $16 102-$20 754]), and ischemic stroke ($16 925 [95% CI, $15 672-$20 616]). CONCLUSIONS: The developed code and catalog may improve the quality and comparability of cost-effectiveness analyses by providing standardized methods for extracting long-term health utility scores and expenditures from Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, which are more current and representative of the US population than previous sources.

Diagnostic accuracy of grayscale, power Doppler and contrast-enhanced ultrasound compared with contrast-enhanced MRI in the visualization of synovitis in knee osteoarthritis.

PURPOSE: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of grayscale (GSUS), power Doppler (PDUS) and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) for detecting synovitis in knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHOD: Patients with different degrees of radiographic knee OA were included prospectively. All underwent GSUS, PDUS, CEUS, and contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE-MRI), on which synovitis was assessed semi-quantitatively. Correlations of synovitis severity on ultrasound based techniques with CE-MRI were determined. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to assess diagnostic performance of GSUS, PDUS, and CEUS, for detecting synovitis, using CE-MRI as reference-standard. RESULTS: In the 31 patients included, synovitis scoring on GSUS and CEUS was significantly correlated (ρ = 0.608, p < 0.001 and ρ = 0.391, p = 0.033) with CE-MRI. For detecting mild synovitis, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.781 (95 %CI 0.609-0.953) for GSUS, 0.788 (0.622-0.954) for PDUS, and 0.653 (0.452-0.853) for CEUS. Sensitivity and specificity were 0.667 (0.431-0.845) and 0.700 (0.354-0.919) for GSUS, 0.905 (0.682-0.983) and 0.500 (0.201-0.799) for PDUS, and 0.550 (0.320-0.762) and 0.700 (0.354-0.919) for CEUS, respectively. The AUC of GSUS increased to 0.862 (0.735-0.989), 0.823 (0.666-0.979), and 0.885 (0.767-1.000), when combined with PDUS, CEUS, or both, respectively. For detecting moderate synovitis, the AUC of GSUS was higher (0.882 (0.750-1.000)) and no added value of PDUS and CEUS was observed. CONCLUSIONS: GSUS has limited overall accuracy for detecting synovitis in knee OA. When GSUS is combined with PDUS or CEUS, overall diagnostic performance improves for detecting mild synovitis, but not for moderate synovitis.