National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2020.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2020 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2020 were reviewed, including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for specialty drugs, biosimilars, and diabetes medications. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2020 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2019, overall US pharmaceutical expenditures grew 5.4% compared to 2018, for a total of $507.9 billion. This increase was driven to similar degrees by prices, utilization, and new drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug in US expenditures in 2019, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $36.9 billion (a 1.5% increase from 2018) and $90.3 billion (an 11.8% increase from 2018) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals growth was driven by new products and price increases. Several new drugs that will likely influence spending are expected to be approved in 2020. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. CONCLUSION: For 2020 we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4.0% to 6.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 9.0% to 11.0% and 2.0% to 4.0%, respectively, compared to 2019. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2019.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2019 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2018 were obtained from the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. New drug approvals, patent expirations, and other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2019 were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2019 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made through a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: U.S. prescription sales in calendar year 2018 totaled $476.2 billion, a 5.5% increase from 2017 spending. The top 3 drugs by expenditures were adalimumab ($19.1 billion), insulin glargine ($9.3 billion), and etanercept ($8.0 billion). Prescription expenditures in nonfederal hospitals totaled $35.8 billion, a 4.8% increase from 2017. Expenditures in clinics in 2018 increased by 13.0% to $80.5 billion. The increase in spending in nonfederal hospitals was largely driven by new products and increased utilization of existing products. The list of the top 25 drugs by expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics was dominated by specialty drugs. CONCLUSION: We predict continued moderate growth of 4-6% in overall drug expenditures (across the entire U.S. market). We expect the clinic sector to continue to experience high (11-13%) growth in drug spending in 2019. Finally, for nonfederal hospitals we anticipate growth in the range of 3-5%. These estimates are at the national level. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2019.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2018.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2018 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2017 were obtained from the IQVIA (formerly QuintilesIMS) National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. New drug approvals, patent expirations, and other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2018 were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2018 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2017 calendar year were $455.9 billion, a 1.7% increase compared with 2016. The top drug based on expenditures was adalimumab ($17.1 billion), followed by insulin glargine and etanercept. Prescription expenditures in nonfederal hospitals totaled $34.2 billion, a 0.7% decrease in 2017 compared with 2016. Expenditures in clinics increased 10.9%, to a total of $70.8 billion. The decrease in spending in nonfederal hospitals was driven by lower utilization. The top 25 drugs by expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics were dominated by specialty drugs. CONCLUSION: We project a 3.0-5.0% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, a 11.0-13.0% increase in clinics, and a 0.0-2.0% increase in hospital drug spending in 2018. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2018.

Antibiotic Expenditures by Medication, Class, and Healthcare Setting in the United States, 2010-2015.

Background: Improving antibiotic use has the potential to decrease healthcare costs by reducing the incidence of antibiotic-resistant infections, antibiotic-associated adverse events, and expenditures due to unnecessary prescriptions. Antibiotic expenditures in 2009 totaled $10.7 billion in the United States. Since then, national and local antibiotic stewardship initiatives have grown. The purpose of this study was to assess trends in antibiotic expenditures by healthcare setting in the United States between 2010 and 2015. Methods: Systemic (nontopical) antibiotic expenditures from January 2010 to December 2015 were extracted from the QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives database. These data represent a statistically valid projection of US medication purchases. Regression analyses evaluated trends in expenditures over the study period. Results: Antibiotic expenditures totaled $56.0 billion over the 6-year period; the majority (59.1%) of expenditures were associated with the outpatient setting. Overall antibiotic expenditures in 2015 ($8.8 billion) were 16.6% lower than in 2010 ($10.6 billion). Antibiotic expenditures similarly decreased in the community by 25.5% (P = .05), but outpatient clinics and mail service pharmacy expenditures experienced significant growth (148% and 67% increase, respectively; P < .01 for both). In 2015, 16.5% of antibiotic expenditures in the community were for parenteral formulations, an increase of 25%. Conclusions: From 2010 to 2015, antibiotic expenditures decreased. The majority of antibiotic expenditures were in the outpatient setting, specifically community pharmacies. Expenditures for intravenous agents in the community are increasing and may represent increased use. These results reinforce the importance of antibiotic stewardship efforts across the spectrum of healthcare.

Influence of drug class and healthcare setting on systemic antifungal expenditures in the United States, 2005-15.

PURPOSE: Overall and specific class trends in systemic antifungal expenditures in various U.S. healthcare settings from 2005 through 2015 were evaluated. METHODS: Systemic antifungal expenditures from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2015, were obtained from the QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspective database, which provides a statistically valid projection of medication purchases from multiple markets throughout the United States. Summary data for total antifungal expenditures over the entire period are reported, as are growth and the percentage change in expenditures from one year to the next. Expenditures were also assessed specifically by year, class, and healthcare setting. Expenditure trends over the study period were assessed using simple linear trend regression models. RESULTS: Overall expenditures for the 11-year period were $9.37 billion. The greatest proportion of expenditures occurred in nonfederal hospitals (47.2%) and for triazoles (57.6%). From 2005 through 2015, total expenditures decreased from $1.1 billion to $894 million (-18.8%, p = 0.09); however, expenditures in clinics and retail pharmacies increased (202%, p < 0.01, and 13.8%, p = 0.04, respectively), a trend most pronounced after 2012. Expenditures for flucytosine also increased (968.1%, p < 0.01), particularly in clinics where there was a dramatic 6,640.9% increase (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: From 2005 through 2015, an increase in systemic antifungal expenditures was observed in community settings, despite an overall decrease in total antifungal expenditures in the United States. Large increases in flucytosine expenditures were observed, particularly in the community.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2017.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2017 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2016 were obtained from the QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. Other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2017, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2017 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2016 calendar year were $448.2 billion, a 5.8% increase compared with 2015. More than half of the increase resulted from price hikes of existing drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug overall in 2016 expenditures ($13.6 billion); in clinics and nonfederal hospitals, infliximab was the top drug. Prescription expenditures in clinics and nonfederal hospitals totaled $63.7 billion (an 11.9% increase from 2015) and $34.5 billion (a 3.3% increase from 2015), respectively. In nonfederal hospitals and clinics, growth in spending was driven primarily by price increases of existing drugs and increased volume, respectively. CONCLUSION: We project a 6.0-8.0% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, an 11.0-13.0% increase in clinics, and a 3.0-5.0% increase in hospital drug spending in 2017. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2017.

Spending on Hepatitis C Antivirals in the United States, 2009-2015.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: New hepatitis C virus (HCV) antivirals have been shown to be highly effective with minimal adverse effects, but they are costly. Little is known, however, about the impact of the new HCV antivirals on expenditures in the overall U.S. health care system or by health care sector. Thus the objective of this study was to describe HCV antiviral expenditures by agent, year, and health care sector. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study. DATA SOURCE: QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives database. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives data for the period of January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2015, were used to describe HCV antiviral expenditures. HCV antiviral expenditures grew each year from $78 million in 2009 to $18 billion in 2015, except during 2013 when spending on HCV drugs dropped by $684 million (41%) compared with 2012. Although most expenditures in 2009 and 2010 were for interferons, this shifted to telaprevir in 2011-2013 and sofosbuvir-containing regimens in 2014-2015. Mail service and community pharmacies were associated with most of the expenditures throughout the study period. CONCLUSION: New HCV antivirals are driving the increased expenditures for this class. Decreased expenditures in 2013 may have been secondary to delaying HCV treatment until new therapies received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (termed "warehousing"). With continued drug development and approval of HCV therapies, expenditures are expected to continue to increase, barring actions by payers that may impede this trend. Medication policies guiding HCV treatment should focus on safety and efficacy while balancing the long-term costs of HCV.

Antibiotic prescriptions in the community by type of provider in the United States, 2005-2010.

OBJECTIVES: Although antibiotic prescriptions are decreasing in the United States, broad-spectrum prescribing is increasing. It is unknown if decreases observed in national antibiotic prescribing differ by provider group. Understanding prescribing trends over time by provider group can be helpful for customizing antimicrobial stewardship efforts. Therefore, the purposes of this study were to describe outpatient antibiotic prescribing by provider group overall and adjusted for population and number of providers. In addition, trends in prescribing by class and seasonal variation are described by provider group over 6 years. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observation of outpatient antibiotic prescriptions. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A population-level analysis of U.S. prescribing from 2005 to 2010 with the use of the IMS Health Xponent dataset. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number and rates of prescriptions dispensed overall and by provider group. RESULTS: The majority (81.0%) of antibiotics were prescribed by physicians, followed by dentists (10.4%), nurse practitioners (NPs; 4.5%), and physician assistants (PAs; 4.2%). The percentage of antibiotic prescriptions decreased for physicians, but increased significantly for NPs and PAs. Provider-based and population-based prescribing rates decreased for physicians and dentists and increased for NPs and PAs. Penicillins were prescribed most frequently by all provider groups, decreasing for physicians and dentists. Increased prescribing of broad-spectrum agents was observed for NPs and PAs. With the exception of dentists, antibiotic prescriptions were higher in winter than in summer, with the largest seasonal increase by NPs. CONCLUSION: Over 6 years, antibiotic prescriptions overall and for broad-spectrum agents decreased for physicians and increased for NPs and PAs. Thus, increasing trends in the US of broad-spectrum antibiotic prescriptions can be attributed to midlevel providers. Interventions should be designed to reverse increasing prescribing trends, especially of broad-spectrum agents prescribed by NPs and PAs. Stewardship efforts should also be targeted towards dentists, since this group prescribes a higher proportion of antibiotics compared with midlevel providers.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2016.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2016 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2015 were obtained from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. Other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2016, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2016 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2015 calendar year were $419.4 billion, which was 11.7% higher than sales in 2014. Prescription expenditures in clinics and nonfederal hospitals totaled $56.7 billion (a 15.9% increase) and $33.6 billion (a 10.7% increase), respectively, in 2015. In nonfederal hospitals, growth in spending was driven primarily by increased prices for existing drugs. The hepatitis C combination drug ledipasvir-sofosbuvir was the top drug overall in terms of 2015 expenditures ($14.3 billion); in both clinics and nonfederal hospitals, infliximab was the top drug. Individual drugs with the greatest increases in expenditures in 2015 were specialty agents and older generics; these agents are likely to continue to influence total spending in 2016. CONCLUSION: We project an 11-13% increase in total drug expenditures overall in 2016, with a 15-17% increase in clinic spending and a 10-12% increase in hospital spending. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug utilization patterns in projecting their own organization's drug spending in 2016.

Influenza Antiviral Expenditures and Outpatient Prescriptions in the United States, 2003-2012.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: The clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of influenza antiviral use are controversial, with recent analyses suggesting potentially limited value. Thus, the objectives of this study were to describe influenza antiviral expenditures overall and by health care setting over a 10-year period (2003-2012) and to assess the correlation between outpatient influenza antiviral prescription use and influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient visits. DESIGN: Retrospective, cross-sectional study. DATA SOURCES: IMS Health National Sales Perspectives and Xponent databases and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ILINet national influenza surveillance system database. PATIENTS: All prescriptions for oseltamivir, rimantadine, or zanamivir from community pharmacies, mail order pharmacies, clinics, nonfederal hospitals, and other health care settings (federal hospitals, military facilities, jails and prisons, universities, staff-model health maintenance organizations, veterinary hospitals and clinics, and long-term care facilities) between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2012. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Prescribing rates were calculated (prescriptions/1000 persons) for each year from 2003 to 2012 by using U.S. Census Bureau data. Influenza season was defined as July 1-June 30 of each calendar year. Linear regression assessed the correlation between influenza antiviral expenditures, prescription use, and ILI diagnoses. From 2003 to 2012, influenza antiviral drug expenditures accounted for $3.74 billion, with the majority from community pharmacies. After adjusting for inflation, no growth was observed for expenditures. A total of 32.8 million influenza antiviral prescriptions were dispensed from community pharmacies during the study period, and these prescriptions experienced 133.2% growth from 2003 to 2012. One third of expenditures and one quarter of dispensed prescriptions were in 2009. Influenza seasons were correlated with ILI and antiviral prescriptions. Annual community pharmacy expenditures were also associated with influenza antiviral prescriptions dispensed over the 10-year period. CONCLUSION: Influenza antivirals totaled $3.74 billion in the United States from 2003 to 2012, with the majority in 2009 and from community pharmacies. Influenza antivirals constituted a small proportion of total medication expenditures, but unforeseen pandemics resulted in unusually high use and expenditures. Influenza antiviral prescriptions dispensed from community pharmacies were associated with ILI and drug expenditures.

Accuracy of annual prescription drug expenditure forecasts in AJHP.

PURPOSE: The accuracy of the forecasts of drug expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics published annually in the American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy (AJHP) relative to the accuracy of forecasts produced by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) was evaluated. METHODS: AJHP-published forecasts of drug expenditure growth for nonfederal hospitals (for the years 2003 through 2013) and clinics (for the years 2004 through 2013) were compared with data on actual growth. Data on actual and projected growth published by CMS were analyzed for the years 2003 through 2012. The mean absolute error and directional accuracy of the forecasts published in AJHP for nonfederal hospitals and clinics and the CMS forecasts were determined and compared. RESULTS: Actual spending growth was within the range of the forecast published in AJHP for 2 of 11 years for nonfederal hospitals and for 3 of 10 years for clinics; the forecasts for nonfederal hospitals and clinics were directionally accurate 27.3% and 60.0% of the time, respectively. The mean absolute errors of the AJHP-published drug expenditure forecasts for the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors were 2.0 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively. The CMS forecasts of overall drug spending were directionally accurate 70% of the time, and the mean absolute error (2.2 percentage points) was not statistically different from that of either sector forecast published in AJHP. CONCLUSION: The annual drug expenditure forecasts published in AJHP have been reasonably accurate for predicting growth in prescription expenditures when compared with other available drug expenditure forecasts.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2015.

PURPOSE: An analysis of trends in U.S. pharmaceutical spending is presented, including projections for drug expenditures in nonfederal hospital and clinic settings in 2015. METHODS: Prescription drug expenditure data through September 2014 were obtained from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database and were analyzed descriptively. Other factors that may influence prescription spending in hospitals and clinics in 2015, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were analyzed. Expenditure projections were based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total prescription sales for the 12 months ending September 30, 2014, were $360.7 billion, 12.2% higher than during the previous 12 months. With $6.6 billion in expenditures in the first 9 months of 2014, sofosbuvir topped the overall list of drugs based on sales, followed by aripiprazole and insulin glargine. Pharmaceutical spending by clinics and nonfederal hospitals rose by 13.3% and 4.0%, respectively. For the first 9 months of 2014, the top drugs based on expenditures were infliximab, pegfilgrastim, and epoetin alfa in clinics and infliximab, rituximab, and pegfilgrastim in hospitals. Specialty drugs continued to constitute an increasing portion of drug expenditures and will contribute to higher expenditures in 2015. CONCLUSION: Growth in U.S. prescription drug expenditures is expected to continue to increase in 2015. The projected increases in total drug expenditures are 7-9% across all settings, 12-14% in clinics, and 5-7% in hospitals. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2015.

US outpatient antibiotic prescribing variation according to geography, patient population, and provider specialty in 2011.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate antibiotic prescribing is an essential strategy to reduce the spread of antibiotic resistance. US prescribing practices have not been thoroughly characterized. We analyzed outpatient antibiotic prescribing data to identify where appropriate antibiotic prescribing interventions could have the most impact. METHODS: Oral antibiotic prescriptions dispensed during 2011 were extracted from the IMS Health Xponent database. The number of prescriptions and census denominators were used to calculate prescribing rates. Prescription totals were calculated for each provider specialty. Regression modeling was used to examine the association between socioeconomic and population health factors and prescribing rates. RESULTS: Healthcare providers prescribed 262.5 million courses of antibiotics in 2011(842 prescriptions per 1000 persons). Penicillins and macrolides were the most common antibiotic categories prescribed. The most commonly prescribed individual antibiotic agent was azithromycin. Family practitioners prescribed the most antibiotic courses (24%). The prescribing rate was higher in the South census region (931 prescriptions per 1000 persons) than in the West (647 prescriptions per 1000 persons; P < .001); this pattern was observed among all age groups, including children ≤ 2 and persons ≥ 65 years of age. Counties with a high proportion of obese persons, infants and children ≤ 2 years of age, prescribers per capita, and females were more likely to be high prescribing by multivariable analysis (adjusted odds ratio, >1.0). CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to characterize antibiotic prescribing practices should focus on the South census region and family practitioners. Further understanding of the factors leading to high prescribing among key target populations will inform appropriate prescribing interventions.

Preemptive clinical pharmacogenetics implementation: current programs in five US medical centers.

Although the field of pharmacogenetics has existed for decades, practioners have been slow to implement pharmacogenetic testing in clinical care. Numerous publications describe the barriers to clinical implementation of pharmacogenetics. Recently, several freely available resources have been developed to help address these barriers. In this review, we discuss current programs that use preemptive genotyping to optimize the pharmacotherapy of patients. Array-based preemptive testing includes a large number of relevant pharmacogenes that impact multiple high-risk drugs. Using a preemptive approach allows genotyping results to be available prior to any prescribing decision so that genomic variation may be considered as an inherent patient characteristic in the planning of therapy. This review describes the common elements among programs that have implemented preemptive genotyping and highlights key processes for implementation, including clinical decision support.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2014.

PURPOSE: An analysis of trends in U.S. pharmaceutical spending is presented, including projections for drug expenditures in nonfederal hospital and clinic settings in 2014. METHODS: Trends in pharmaceutical expenditures and developments likely to influence future spending, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were analyzed using data from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database. Projections were based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total prescription sales for the 12 months ending September 2013 were approximately $326 billion, 0.7% lower than sales during the previous 12 months; pharmaceutical spending by clinics and nonfederal hospitals grew by 4.5% and 1.8%, respectively. Vaccines were among the products driving large sales increases in clinic settings, with alteplase and pegfilgrastim topping the list of fast-growing drugs by hospital expenditures. Few new drug approvals anticipated in 2014 are expected to result in major expenditures by hospitals and clinics. Expansion of access to health care and other changes related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, as well as continued improvement in the U.S. economy, may drive growth in pharmaceutical spending over the next 12-24 months. CONCLUSION: Growth in U.S. prescription drug expenditures is expected to rebound in 2014, with a projected 3-5% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings this year, including a 5-7% increase in clinic spending and a 1-3% increase in hospital spending. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug-utilization patterns to determine their respective organization's anticipated spending in 2014.

Trends and seasonal variation in outpatient antibiotic prescription rates in the United States, 2006 to 2010.

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria are an increasing threat to the effectiveness of antibiotics. The majority of antibiotics are prescribed in primary care settings for upper respiratory tract infections. The purpose of this study was to describe seasonal trends in outpatient antibiotic prescriptions (Rx) in the United States over a 5-year period. This study was a retrospective, cross-sectional observation of systemic antibiotic prescriptions in the outpatient setting from 2006 to 2010. Winter months were defined as the first and fourth quarters of the calendar year. Antibiotic prescribing rates were calculated (prescriptions/1,000 population) using annual U.S. Census Bureau population data. Over 1.34 billion antibiotic prescriptions were dispensed over the 5-year period. The antibiotic prescription (Rx) rate decreased from 892 Rx/1,000 population in 2006 to 867 Rx/1,000 population in 2010. Penicillins and macrolides were the primary antibiotic classes prescribed, but penicillin prescribing decreased while macrolide prescribing increased over the study period. Overall, antibiotic prescriptions were 24.5% higher in winter months than in the summer, with the largest difference (28.8%) in 2008 and the smallest (20.4%) in 2010. This seasonality was consistently drug class dependent, driven by 75% and 100% increases in penicillin and macrolide prescriptions, respectively, in the winter months. The mean outpatient antibiotic prescription rate decreased in the United States from 2006 to 2010. More antibiotic prescribing, predominately driven by the macrolide and penicillin classes, in the outpatient setting was observed in the winter months. Understanding annual variability in antibiotic use can assist with designing interventions to improve the judicious use of antibiotics.

Outpatient influenza antiviral prescription trends with influenza-like illness in the USA, 2008-2010.

The 2009 novel H1N1 influenza A virus (H1N1) became a global pandemic. Data on antiviral prescriptions by location from 2008 to 2010 have not been reported. The purpose of this study was to assess antiviral geographic trends and correlation with influenza-like illness (ILI) over 3 years. Percent of outpatient ILI visits and antiviral prescriptions from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 were included. Linear regression was used to assess correlation. In total, 14 million antivirals were dispensed during this period. A 115% increase was observed in 2009 compared with prescriptions dispensed in 2008, and an 84% decrease was observed in 2010 compared with 2009. The rate of antivirals was 1.32 prescriptions/100 persons in 2008, 2.85/100 persons in 2009 and 0.435/100 persons in 2010. 2009 regional growth was observed in most states and was highest in the West (293%) and the Northeast (272%). A positive correlation was observed between antivirals and ILI visits (R(2)=0.7853; P<0.0001). With the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, antivirals increased compared with 2008 or 2010. Without the concern of H1N1, antivirals decreased in 2010 to levels lower than 2008. Geographic trends were also observed, which may be a result of the different intensity of influenza transmission and difference practice patterns. ILI diagnoses correlate with influenza antiviral prescription use in the USA.

Projecting future drug expenditures in U.S. nonfederal hospitals and clinics--2013.

PURPOSE: Factors likely to influence drug expenditures, drug expenditure trends in 2012, and projected drug expenditures for U.S. nonfederal hospitals and clinics in 2013 are discussed. METHODS: Prescription drug expenditure data for 2011 through September 2012 were obtained from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database. Expenditure projections were based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses, combined with expert opinion. RESULTS: Total prescription sales in the United States for the 12-month period ending September 2012 were $326.0 billion, a 0.8% increase from the previous 12 months. This rate of growth was the lowest in recent history and can be attributed to modest increases in expenditures for new products (3.3%) and the prices of existing products (5.9%), coupled with a marked decline in overall volume and mix (-8.4%). For the 9 months ending in September 2012, total prescription expenditures grew 2.7% when compared with the same period in 2011. Oncology products remained important expenditures for hospitals and clinics. Antineoplastic agents were the top medication class for expenditures in nonfederal hospitals, and oncology products accounted for 32.2% of drug expenditures in the clinic setting in the first 9 months of 2012. CONCLUSION: For 2013, we project a 1-3% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, a 2-4% increase in expenditures for clinic-administered drugs, and a 0.5% decline to 1.5% increase in hospital drug expenditures. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug-utilization patterns to determine their own organization's drug expenditure forecast.