ABSTRACT
This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period, annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12, 0.23 and 0.54 â·10 a-1 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP4.5, under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a-1. Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period (1961-1990), it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period, and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP8.5 scenario. The NPP under the RCP8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by the RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. During 2015-2100, the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m-2·10 a-1 under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively, implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.
