ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: We set out to assess the performance of the P-POSSUM and NELA risk prediction tool (NELA RPT), and hypothesized that combining them with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) would significantly improve their performance. Emergency laparotomy (EL) is a high-risk surgical intervention, particularly for elderly patients with marked comorbidities and frailty. Accurate risk prediction is crucial for appropriate resource allocation, clinical decision making, and informed consent. Although patient frailty is a significant risk factor, the current risk prediction tools fail to take frailty into account. METHODS: In this retrospective single-center cohort study, we analyzed all cases entered into the NELA database from the Oxford University Hospitals between 01.01.2018 and 15.06.2021. We analyzed the performance of the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT. Both tools were modified by adding the CFS to the model. RESULTS: The discrimination of both the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT was good, with a slightly worse performance in the elderly. Adding CFS into the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT models improved both tools in the elderly [AUC from 0.775 to 0.846 (p < 0.05) from 0.814 to 0.864 (p < 0.05), respectively]. The improvement of the NELA RPT across all age groups did not reach statistical significance. The CFS grade was associated with 30-day mortality in patients aged > 65 years. However, in younger patients, this effect was less marked than in the elderly. CONCLUSION: Our analysis demonstrated a significant improvement in the P-POSSUM and NELA risk models when combined with the CFS. Frailty also increases the 30-day mortality after EL in younger individuals.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The 57 countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) are experiencing rapid increases in their burden of cancer. The First Ladies Against Cancer meeting at the 2016 OIC meeting in Istanbul committed to the importance of cancer control and the need for more evidence to support national cancer control planning (NCCP). Strong research systems are a crucial aspect of NCCP, but few data exist to support policy-makers across this political grouping. METHODOLOGY: We identified all cancer research papers from OIC countries in the Web of Science from 2008 to 2017 with a filter based on journal names and title words, with high precision and recall. We analysed the country outputs, the cancer sites investigated, the types of research, sources of funding and the citations to the papers. RESULTS: There were 49,712 cancer research papers over this period. The leading countries in terms of output were Turkey, Iran, Egypt and Malaysia, but the most cited papers were from Qatar, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. International collaboration was low, except in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The site-specific cancers accounting for most research were breast and blood, correlating with their disease burden in the OIC countries, but lung, cervical and oesophageal cancers were relatively under-researched. Most funding from within the OIC countries was from their own university sector. CONCLUSION: Cancer is seriously under-researched in most of the OIC countries. This will undermine the ability of these countries and OIC as a whole to deliver on better cancer control for their populations. New policies, OIC leadership and funding are urgently needed to address this situation.
ABSTRACT
Armed conflict in Afghanistan has continued for close to 40 years and has devastated its health infrastructure. The lack of a cancer care infrastructure has meant that many Afghans seek cancer care in neighbouring countries, like Pakistan. There remains a significant lack of empirical data on the new therapeutic geographies of cancer in contemporary conflicts. This retrospective single centre study explores the therapeutic and clinical geographies of Afghan cancer patients who were treated at the Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre (SKMCH&RC) in Lahore, Pakistan over a 22-year-period (1995 to 2017) covering major periods of conflict and relative peace. Data was available for 3,489 Afghan patients who received treatment at SKMCH&RC. The mean age at presentation was 42.7 years, and 60% were men. 30.2% came from Kabul and Nangarhar districts of Afghanistan, which have relatively short travel times to Pakistan, but patients from all parts of Afghanistan migrated to SKMCH&RC for treatment. Overall, 34.1% were diagnosed with upper gastrointestinal malignancies and 55.7% presented with late stage III/IV cancer. A wide range of treatments were provided, with 25.4% of patients receiving a combination of chemotherapy and radiation treatment. 52.7% of all patients were lost to follow-up. Outcomes were more favourable for children with cancer, 42% of whom had a complete response to therapy. Complex migration patterns, mixed political economies (refugees, forced and unforced migrants) and models of care that must be adapted to the realities of the patients rather than notional international standards all reflect the new therapeutic geographies that long-term conflict creates. This requires significant new domestic and international (e.g., United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) policy and practises for providing cancer care in today's contemporary conflict ecosystems that frequently cross national borders.
ABSTRACT
Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in 1988 the global incidence of poliomyelitis has fallen by nearly 99 %. From a situation where wild type poliovirus was endemic in 125 countries across five continents, transmission is now limited to regions of just three countries - Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria. A sharp increase in Pakistan's poliomyelitis cases in 2014 prompted the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee to declare the situation a 'public health emergency of international concern'. Global polio eradication hinges on Pakistan's ability to address the religious, political and socioeconomic barriers to immunisation; including discrepancies in vaccine coverage, a poor health infrastructure, and conflict in polio-endemic regions of the country. This analysis provides an overview of the GPEI, focusing on the historical and contemporary challenges facing Pakistan's polio eradication programme and the impact of conflict and insecurity, and sheds light on strategies to combat vaccine hesitancy, engage local communities and build on recent progress towards polio eradication in Pakistan.
