Primary stroke prevention in China - a new approach.

The growing burden of stroke in China, along with the increasing cost of health care calls for new, more effective strategies for stroke prevention. These strategies should include increasing awareness of stroke symptoms, awareness of risk factors, and provision of easily available information on means of modifying risk factors. The Stroke Riskometer App is exactly such a tool, available in Mandarin, for adult individuals to calculate their risk of stroke over the next 5 and 10  years, and to identify their individual stroke risk factors and linking them to possible means of modifying these risk factors. The use of this App could reduce the risk of stroke for individuals in the Chinese population and contribute to significant reduction in stroke burden in China.

The Stroke Riskometer(TM) App: validation of a data collection tool and stroke risk predictor.

BACKGROUND: The greatest potential to reduce the burden of stroke is by primary prevention of first-ever stroke, which constitutes three quarters of all stroke. In addition to population-wide prevention strategies (the 'mass' approach), the 'high risk' approach aims to identify individuals at risk of stroke and to modify their risk factors, and risk, accordingly. Current methods of assessing and modifying stroke risk are difficult to access and implement by the general population, amongst whom most future strokes will arise. To help reduce the burden of stroke on individuals and the population a new app, the Stroke Riskometer(TM) , has been developed. We aim to explore the validity of the app for predicting the risk of stroke compared with current best methods. METHODS: 752 stroke outcomes from a sample of 9501 individuals across three countries (New Zealand, Russia and the Netherlands) were utilized to investigate the performance of a novel stroke risk prediction tool algorithm (Stroke Riskometer(TM) ) compared with two established stroke risk score prediction algorithms (Framingham Stroke Risk Score [FSRS] and QStroke). We calculated the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUROC) with 95% confidence intervals, Harrels C-statistic and D-statistics for measure of discrimination, R(2) statistics to indicate level of variability accounted for by each prediction algorithm, the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic for calibration, and the sensitivity and specificity of each algorithm. RESULTS: The Stroke Riskometer(TM) performed well against the FSRS five-year AUROC for both males (FSRS = 75.0% (95% CI 72.3%-77.6%), Stroke Riskometer(TM) = 74.0(95% CI 71.3%-76.7%) and females [FSRS = 70.3% (95% CI 67.9%-72.8%, Stroke Riskometer(TM) = 71.5% (95% CI 69.0%-73.9%)], and better than QStroke [males - 59.7% (95% CI 57.3%-62.0%) and comparable to females = 71.1% (95% CI 69.0%-73.1%)]. Discriminative ability of all algorithms was low (C-statistic ranging from 0.51-0.56, D-statistic ranging from 0.01-0.12). Hosmer-Lemeshow illustrated that all of the predicted risk scores were not well calibrated with the observed event data (P < 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: The Stroke Riskometer(TM) is comparable in performance for stroke prediction with FSRS and QStroke. All three algorithms performed equally poorly in predicting stroke events. The Stroke Riskometer(TM) will be continually developed and validated to address the need to improve the current stroke risk scoring systems to more accurately predict stroke, particularly by identifying robust ethnic/race ethnicity group and country specific risk factors.