The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios.

There are infinite possible future scenarios reflecting the impacts of anthropogenic multiple stress on our planet. These impacts include changes in climate and land cover, to which aquatic ecosystems are especially vulnerable. To assess plausible developments of the future state of European surface waters, we considered two climate scenarios and three storylines describing land use, management and anthropogenic development ('Consensus', 'Techno' and 'Fragmented', which in terms of environmental protection represent best-, intermediate- and worst-case, respectively). Three lake and four river basins were selected, representing a spectrum of European conditions through a range of different human impacts and climatic, geographical and biological characteristics. Using process-based and empirical models, freshwater total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were projected for 2030 and 2060. Under current conditions, the water bodies mostly fail good ecological status. In future predictions for the Techno and Fragmented World, concentrations further increased, while concentrations generally declined for the Consensus World. Furthermore, impacts were more severe for rivers than for lakes. Main pressures identified were nutrient inputs from agriculture, land use change, inadequately managed water abstractions and climate change effects. While the basins in the Continental and Atlantic regions were primarily affected by land use changes, in the Mediterranean/Anatolian the main driver was climate change. The Boreal basins showed combined impacts of land use and climate change and clearly reflected the climate-induced future trend of agricultural activities shifting northward. The storylines showed positive effects on ecological status by classical mitigation measures in the Consensus World (e.g. riparian shading), technical improvements in the Techno World (e.g. increasing wastewater treatment efficiency) and agricultural extensification in the Fragmented World. Results emphasize the need for implementing targeted measures to reduce anthropogenic impacts and the importance of having differing levels of ambition for improving the future status of water bodies depending on the societal future to be expected.

Mapping eutrophication risk from climate change: Future phosphorus concentrations in English rivers.

Climate change is expected to increase eutrophication risk in rivers yet few studies identify the timescale or spatial extent of such impacts. Phosphorus concentration, considered the primary driver of eutrophication risk in English rivers, may increase through reduced dilution particularly if river flows are lower in summer. Detailed models can indicate change in catchment phosphorus concentrations but targeted support for mitigation measures requires a national scale evaluation of risk. In this study, a load apportionment model is used to describe the current relationship between flow and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) at 115 river sites across England. These relationships are used to estimate TRP concentrations for the 2050s under 11 climate change driven scenarios of future river flows and under scenarios of both current and higher levels of sewage treatment. National maps of change indicate a small but inconsistent increase in annual average TRP concentrations with a greater change in summer. Reducing the TRP concentration of final sewage effluent to 0.5mg/L P for all upstream sewage treatment works was inadequate to meet existing P standards required through the EU Water Framework Directive, indicating that more needs to be done, including efforts to reduce diffuse pollution.

What impact might mitigation of diffuse nitrate pollution have on river water quality in a rural catchment?

Observations of river flow, river quality and solar radiation were collated to assess the degree to which light and nutrients may be limiting phytoplankton growth at seven sites in the River Ouse catchment in NE England under average conditions. Hydraulic information derived from river network model applications was then used to determine where river water has sufficient residence time above the tidal limit to facilitate bloom development. A nitrate model (NALTRACES) was developed to estimate the impact of land management change on mean river nitrate concentrations. Applications of this model showed that although agricultural activity contributes substantially to nitrate loads in the Ouse it is likely to have little impact on phytoplankton growth, which could still occur extensively in its absence given favourable sunny and dry conditions. As an example of a means of controlling light availability, establishing full riparian tree cover would appear to be a considerably more effective management scenario than suppressing inputs to the river of nitrate or phosphorus. Any actions should be prioritised in headwater areas such as the upper reaches of the Swale and Ure tributaries. These conclusions are in broad agreement with those arising from more detailed simulations at daily resolution using the QUESTOR river quality model. The combination of simple modelling approaches applied here allows an initial identification of suitable spatially-targeted options for mitigating against phytoplankton blooms which can be applied more widely at a regional or national level.