Prediction of bacteremia in the emergency department: an external validation of a clinical decision rule.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to validate a previously published clinical decision rule for predicting a positive blood culture in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected infection on the basis of major and minor criteria and a total score (Shapiro et al., J Emerg Med, 2008; 35:255-264). METHODS: This is a retrospective matched cohort study of adult ED patients with blood cultures obtained from 1 January 2011 through to 31 December 2011. ED patients with blood culture-confirmed bacteremia were matched 1 : 3 with patients with negative cultures. The outcome was 'true bacteremia'. Data on clinical history, comorbid illnesses, physical observations, and laboratory tests were used to evaluate the application of the clinical decision rule. We report the sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. RESULTS: Among 1526 patients, 105 (6.9%) patients were classified with true bacteremia. The sensitivity of the prediction rule was 94% (95% confidence interval, 88-98%) and the specificity was 48% (95% confidence interval, 42-53%). The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.83. CONCLUSION: The clinical decision rule performed well in our ED setting and is likely to be a useful supplement to clinical judgment.

Predictors of intensive care unit transfer or death in emergency department patients with suspected infection.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify predictors of ICU transfer or death within 48 h obtainable within 4 h of admission in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected infection. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a nested case-control study based on a prospective cohort of adult patients admitted to the ED at Aarhus University Hospital, in 2011, who had a blood culture drawn upon admission. Cases met the composite endpoint of ICU transfer or death within 4-48 h of admission. We identified up to three controls for each case, matched by age and admission month. We collected data on possible predictors from medical records. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors. RESULTS: A total of 1578 patients had a blood culture drawn in the ED. Among these, 61 (4%) patients were transferred to an ICU and 15 (1%) patients died within 4-48 h of admission. We could obtain complete data on 59 cases, which were matched to 165 controls. Significant predictors of ICU transfer or death within 4-48 h included temperature as a continuous variable, and neurologic (altered mental status), respiratory, and cardiovascular dysfunction. CONCLUSION: Readily available clinical and laboratory variables at arrival in the ED can support identification of late deterioration leading to ICU transfer or death within 48 h of admission.