Possible shift in controls of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern.

Changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the tropical Pacific modulate radiative feedbacks to greenhouse gas forcing, the pace of global warming and regional climate impacts. Therefore, elucidating the drivers of the pattern is critically important for reducing uncertainties in future projections. However, the causes of observed changes over recent decades, an enhancement of the zonal SST contrast coupled with a strengthening of the Walker circulation, are still debated. Here we focus on the role of external forcing and review existing mechanisms of the forced response categorized as either an energy perspective that adopts global and hemispheric energy budget constraints or a dynamical perspective that examines the atmosphere-ocean coupled processes. We then discuss their collective and relative contributions to the past and future SST pattern changes and propose a narrative that reconciles them. Although definitive evidence is not yet available, our assessment suggests that the zonal SST contrast has been dominated by strengthening mechanisms in the past, but will shift towards being dominated by weakening mechanisms in the future. Finally, we present opportunities to resolve the model-observations discrepancy regarding the recent trends.

Contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to persistent La Niña-like conditions in the early 21st century.

The discrepancy between the observed lack of surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific and climate model projections of an El Niño-like warming pattern confronts the climate research community. While anthropogenic aerosols have been suggested as a cause, the prolonged cooling trend over the equatorial Pacific appears in conflict with Northern Hemisphere aerosol emission reduction since the 1980s. Here, using CESM, we show that the superposition of fast and slow responses to aerosol emission change-an increase followed by a decrease-can sustain the La Niña-like condition for a longer time than expected. The rapid adjustment of Hadley Cell to aerosol reduction triggers joint feedback between low clouds, wind, evaporation, and sea surface temperature in the Southeast Pacific, leading to a wedge-shaped cooling that extends to the central equatorial Pacific. Meanwhile, the northern subtropical cell gradually intensifies, resulting in equatorial subsurface cooling that lasts for decades.

Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing.

Walker circulation variability and associated zonal shifts in the heating of the tropical atmosphere have far-reaching global impacts well into high latitudes. Yet the reversed high latitude-to-Walker circulation teleconnection is not fully understood. Here, we reveal the dynamical pathways of this teleconnection across different components of the climate system using a hierarchy of climate model simulations. In the fully coupled system with ocean circulation adjustments, the Walker circulation strengthens in response to extratropical radiative cooling of either hemisphere, associated with the upwelling of colder subsurface water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. By contrast, in the absence of ocean circulation adjustments, the Walker circulation response is sensitive to the forcing hemisphere, due to the blocking effect of the northward-displaced climatological intertropical convergence zone and shortwave cloud radiative effects. Our study implies that energy biases in the extratropics can cause pronounced changes of tropical climate patterns.

Link between the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone problem and cloud biases over the Southern Ocean.

The double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) problem, in which excessive precipitation is produced in the Southern Hemisphere tropics, which resembles a Southern Hemisphere counterpart to the strong Northern Hemisphere ITCZ, is perhaps the most significant and most persistent bias of global climate models. In this study, we look to the extratropics for possible causes of the double-ITCZ problem by performing a global energetic analysis with historical simulations from a suite of global climate models and comparing with satellite observations of the Earth's energy budget. Our results show that models with more energy flux into the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere (at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface) tend to have a stronger double-ITCZ bias, consistent with recent theoretical studies that suggest that the ITCZ is drawn toward heating even outside the tropics. In particular, we find that cloud biases over the Southern Ocean explain most of the model-to-model differences in the amount of excessive precipitation in Southern Hemisphere tropics, and are suggested to be responsible for this aspect of the double-ITCZ problem in most global climate models.