Liver fibrosis Assessed Via Non-invasive Tests is Associated With Incident Heart Failure in a General Population Cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of this study was to determine whether liver fibrosis is associated with heart failure in a general population cohort, and if genetic polymorphisms (PNPLA3 rs738409; TM6SF2 rs58542926), linked to increased risk of liver fibrosis and decreased risk of coronary artery disease, modify this association. METHODS: Using UK Biobank data, we prospectively examined the relationship between noninvasive fibrosis markers (nonalcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD] fibrosis score [NFS], Fibrosis-4 [FIB-4] and aspartate transaminase [AST] to platelet ratio index [APRI]) and incident hospitalization/death from heart failure (n = 413,860). Cox-regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for incident heart failure. Effects of PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 on the association between liver fibrosis and heart failure were estimated by stratifying for genotype and testing for an interaction between genotype and liver fibrosis using a likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: A total of 12,527 incident cases of heart failure occurred over a median of 10.7 years. Liver fibrosis was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization or death from heart failure (multivariable adjusted high-risk NFS score HR, 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.47-1.76; P < .0001; FIB-4 HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.55-1.84; P < .0001; APRI HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.56-2.19; P < .0001; combined fibrosis scores HR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.44-2.49; P < .0001). These associations persisted for people with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), MASLD with alcohol consumption (Met-ALD), and harmful alcohol consumption. PNPLA3 rs738409 GG and TM6SF2 rs58542926 TT did not attenuate the positive association between fibrosis markers and heart failure. For PNPLA3, a statistically significant interaction was found between PNPLA3 rs738409, FIB-4, APRI score, and heart failure. CONCLUSION: In the general population, serum markers of liver fibrosis are associated with increased hospitalization/death from heart failure. Genetic polymorphisms associated with liver fibrosis were not positively associated with elevated heart failure risk.

Effect of a Low-Calorie Dietary Intervention on Liver Health and Body Weight in Adults with Metabolic-Dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) and Overweight/Obesity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Metabolic-dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) is a common cause of chronic liver disease. This review assessed the efficacy of a Low-Calorie Diet (LCD) on liver health and body weight in people living with MASLD and obesity. METHODS: The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021296501), and a literature search was conducted using multiple databases. The key inclusion criteria were randomised controlled trials or cohort studies, obesity/overweight and MASLD. Two authors screened abstracts, reviewed full texts and performed data extraction and quality assessment. The primary outcome was the change in the serum ALT, and secondary outcomes included the changes in the serum AST, intrahepatic lipid content (IHL), quantified non-invasively via MRI/MRS, and body weight. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included. The LCD reduced body weight by 9.1 kg versus the control (95%CI: -12.4, -5.8) but not serum ALT (-5.9 IU/L, -13.9, 2.0). Total Dietary Replacement (TDR) reduced IHL by -9.1% vs. the control (-15.6%, -2.6%). The Mediterranean-LCD for ≥12 months reduced ALT (-4.1 IU/L, -7.6, -0.5) and for 24 months reduced liver stiffness versus other LCDs. The Green-Mediterranean-LCD reduced IHL, independent of body weight. Limited studies assessed those of Black or Asian ethnicity, and there was heterogeneity in the methods assessing the liver fat content and fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: In people with MASLD and obesity, an LCD intervention reduces IHL and body weight. Trials should focus on the recruitment of Black and Asian ethnicity participants.

Ultra-processed food and non-communicable diseases in the United Kingdom: A narrative review and thematic synthesis of literature.

The social and economic constructs of the United Kingdom (UK) provide a fertile food environment for the dramatic expansion in the ultra-processed food (UPF) market, driving increased UPF consumption. This has coincided with the significant increase in the incidence and prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, with an inherent impact on morbidity and mortality. Our review aims to assess the current epidemiological and public health trends in the United Kingdom, specifically examining consumption of UPFs and subsequent development of NCDs, summarizing existing meta-analytical and experimental approaches. First, we address important socioeconomic and psychosocial domains that may contribute to increased availability and consumption of UPF. Additionally, we explore the putative mechanistic basis for the association between UPFs and NCDs: partly attributable to their energy density, the macro- and micronutrient composition (including high refined carbohydrate, saturated, and trans fats composition, in addition to low fiber and protein content), and artificially engineered additives and other compounds that adversely affect health in inadequately researched pathophysiological pathways. This review highlights the importance of promoting minimally processed diets to both clinical and political decision makers.

High intake of ultra-processed food is associated with dementia in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Poor cardiometabolic health is associated with dementia. Considering previous meta-analyses have confirmed associations between ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and cardiometabolic disease, we were interested in the contribution of UPF consumption to the risk of developing dementia. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of all records registered on Ovid Medline and Web of Science from inception until December 2022 [PROSPERO (CRD42023388363)]. Studies that assessed UPF consumption in adults, determined according to NOVA, and that reported dementia (Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia and mild cognitive impairment) determined by clearly stated diagnostic criteria (including formal assessment of dementia or use of diagnostic codes) were included. The association between UPF consumption and dementia was assessed using random-effects meta-analysis, controlling for confounding variables. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale and evidence credibility evaluated using the NutriGrade system. RESULTS: Seven thousand ten records were screened, and 122 records underwent full text review. From these, 10 observational (8 longitudinal) studies, analysing 867,316 individuals, were included. Included studies adjusted for age, socioeconomic status and co-morbidity, alongside other confounders. High (vs. low) intake of UPF was associated with increased risk of dementia (pooled relative risk 1.44 (95% confidence interval 1.09-1.90) (p = 0.02)) (I2 = 97.0%), although moderate (vs. low) intake of UPF was not (1.12 (0.96-1.31) (0.13)) (85.0%). Funnel plots demonstrate low risk of publication bias. CONCLUSION: High UPF consumption is associated with dementia. Public health measures to reduce overconsumption of UPFs are imperative to reduce the burden of dementia.

Mendelian randomisation reveals Sodium-glucose Cotransporter-1 inhibition's potential in reducing Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease risk.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has no approved pharmacological treatments. Sodium-glucose cotransporter (SGLT)-1 is a glucose transporter that mediates small intestinal glucose absorption. We evaluated the impact of genetically proxied SGLT-1 inhibition (SGLT-1i) on serum liver transaminases and NAFLD risk. We used a missense variant, rs17683430, in the SLC5A1 gene (encoding SGLT1) associated with HbA1c in a genome-wide association study (n = 344 182) to proxy SGLT-1i. Outcome genetic data comprised 1483 NAFLD cases and 17 781 controls. Genetically proxied SGLT-1i was associated with reduced NAFLD risk (OR 0.36; 95%CI 0.15, 0.87; P = .023) per 1 mmol/mol HbA1c reduction, and with reductions in liver enzymes (alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, gamma-glutamyl transferase). Genetically proxied HbA1c, not specifically via SGLT-1i, was not associated with NAFLD risk. Colocalisation did not demonstrate genetic confounding. Overall, genetically proxied SGLT-1i is associated with improved liver health, this may be underpinned by SGLT-1-specific mechanisms. Clinical trials should evaluate the impact of SGLT-1/2 inhibitors on the prevention and treatment of NAFLD.

Ultra-Processed Food Intake Is Associated with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with overweight/obesity, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes (T2D) due to chronic caloric excess and physical inactivity. Previous meta-analyses have confirmed associations between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and obesity and T2D. We aim to ascertain the contribution of UPF consumption to the risk of developing NAFLD. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO (CRD42022368763)). All records registered on Ovid Medline and Web of Science were searched from inception until December 2022. Studies that assessed UPF consumption in adults, determined according to the NOVA food classification system, and that reported NAFLD determined by surrogate (steatosis) scores, imaging or liver biopsy were included. The association between UPF consumption and NAFLD was assessed using random-effects meta-analysis methods. Study quality was assessed, and evidence credibility evaluated, using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale and NutriGrade systems, respectively. A total of 5454 records were screened, and 112 records underwent full text review. From these, 9 studies (3 cross-sectional, 3 case-control and 3 cohort), analysing 60,961 individuals, were included in the current review. Both moderate (vs. low) (pooled relative risk 1.03 (1.00-1.07) (p = 0.04) (I2 = 0%)) and high (vs. low) (1.42 (1.16-1.75) (<0.01) (I2 = 89%)) intake of UPF significantly increased the risk of NAFLD. Funnel plots demonstrate low risk of publication bias. Consumption of UPF is associated with NAFLD with a dose-response effect. Public health measures to reduce overconsumption of UPF are imperative to reduce the burden of NAFLD, and the related conditions, obesity and T2D.

The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis on adverse clinical outcomes and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study using the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently co-exist. We assess the impact of having NAFLD on adverse clinical outcomes and all-cause mortality for people with CKD. METHODS: A total of 18,073 UK Biobank participants identified to have CKD (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or albuminuria > 3 mg/mmol) were prospectively followed up by electronic linkage to hospital and death records. Cox-regression estimated the hazard ratios (HR) associated with having NAFLD (elevated hepatic steatosis index or ICD-code) and NAFLD fibrosis (elevated fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score or NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS)) on cardiovascular events (CVE), progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: 56.2% of individuals with CKD had NAFLD at baseline, and 3.0% and 7.7% had NAFLD fibrosis according to a FIB-4 > 2.67 and NFS ≥ 0.676, respectively. The median follow-up was 13 years. In univariate analysis, NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of CVE (HR 1.49 [1.38-1.60]), all-cause mortality (HR 1.22 [1.14-1.31]) and ESRD (HR 1.26 [1.02-1.54]). Following multivariable adjustment, NAFLD remained an independent risk factor for CVE overall (HR 1.20 [1.11-1.30], p < 0.0001), but not ACM or ESRD. In univariate analysis, elevated NFS and FIB-4 scores were associated with increased risk of CVE (HR 2.42 [2.09-2.80] and 1.64 [1.30-2.08]) and all-cause mortality (HR 2.82 [2.48-3.21] and 1.82 [1.47-2.24]); the NFS score was also associated with ESRD (HR 5.15 [3.52-7.52]). Following full adjustment, the NFS remained associated with an increased incidence of CVE (HR 1.19 [1.01-1.40]) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.31 [1.13-1.52]). CONCLUSIONS: In people with CKD, NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of CVE, and the NAFLD fibrosis score is associated with an elevated risk of CVE and worse survival.

Childhood, adolescent, and adulthood adiposity are associated with risk of PCOS: a Mendelian randomization study with meta-analysis.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the influence of body composition during childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, as well as metabolic parameters, on incident polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)? SUMMARY ANSWER: Excess body fat, even during childhood/adolescence, and metabolic parameters, suggestive of hyperinsulinaemia/insulin resistance, significantly impact the risk of PCOS in a linear fashion. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) data have demonstrated an association between adulthood overweight/obesity and development of PCOS. However, the contribution of body composition in childhood/adolescence to incident PCOS is unclear, as is the influence of childhood overweight/obesity. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis and integrated our results with a previously published systematic review. Two blinded investigators screened abstracts published between November 2010 and May 2021. Furthermore, we incorporated summary statistics from genome-wide association study (GWAS) data in subjects of European ancestry. Adult overweight was defined as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and obesity as BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; in Asian subjects, overweight was defined as BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2 and obesity as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We utilized meta-analysis and MR together to allow synthesis of genetic and observational data. For the systematic review, the search revealed 71 studies, of which 63 were included in meta-analysis by calculating odds ratios (ORs) using the random-effects model. Furthermore, we conducted a two-sample MR study of GWAS data to determine the impact of childhood and adult body size (defined categorically by BMI and childhood body size proportions), abnormal body composition and metabolic parameters (higher fasting serum insulin or lower sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentration) on the odds of incident PCOS via the inverse-variance weighted method. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Significant associations were shown between body composition and PCOS incidence. From the systematic review/meta-analysis, women with overweight (OR 3.80, 2.87-5.03), obesity (OR 4.99, 3.74-6.67), and central obesity (OR 2.93, 2.08-4.12) had increased odds of PCOS. For adolescents with overweight and/or obesity, the PCOS odds were greater than for adults. From MR, for every standard deviation increase in BMI (4.8 kg/m2), the odds of PCOS increased by 2.76 (2.27-3.35). Childhood body size had an independent effect on PCOS odds after adjusting for adult body size (OR: 2.56, 1.57-4.20). Genetically determined body fat percentage (OR 3.05, 2.24-4.15), whole body fat mass (OR 2.53, 2.04-3.14), fasting serum insulin (OR 6.98, 2.02-24.13), and SHBG concentration (OR 0.74, 0.64-0.87) were all significantly associated with PCOS in a linear relation. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The meta-analysis included studies which were cross-sectional and retrospective, limiting our ability to determine causality. MR was limited by interrogating subjects only of European ancestry and including cases classified by either self-diagnosis or diagnostic criteria. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our study demonstrates for the first time a critical role of the impact of excess childhood/adolescent adiposity on the pathophysiology of adult PCOS. Our results, driven by genetically determined childhood/adolescent body composition, higher BMI, hyperinsulinaemia, and lower SHBG, clearly favour obesity driving the metabolic, but not reproductive, PCOS phenotype. Overall, effective weight maintenance, even from the early years, is likely to reduce the risk of this reproductive endocrine disorder. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): S.S.Z. was funded by a National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Academic Clinical Lectureship. U.A. is chair of the NIHR Steering Committee Trial-CASSANDRA-DN. No other authors declare any sources of funding or relevant conflicts of interest. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relations that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Mobility Trends and the Associated Rise in Population-Level Physical Inactivity: Insights From International Mobile Phone and National Survey Data.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced physical activity (PA) levels. This is important as physical inactivity is linked to poor COVID-19 outcomes. This study aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions on greenspace and residence mobility, walking levels and in turn how these translated to trends in (UK) PA levels. Methods: Google Mobility Reports, the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and Apple Mobility geospatial datasets were interrogated for international data. Residence mobility represents home mobility, greenspace mobility includes parks, walking direction requests is proportion of walking directions; stringency index measures lockdown intensity. The Sports England Active Lives Survey dataset was assessed for complementary changes in English PA levels. Results: Using mobility data of 10 countries we observed that during lockdown there were reductions in greenspace mobility and walking directions alongside increased residence mobility; more pronounced changes were seen in countries with higher stringency indices. From a UK perspective, complementary English PA survey data demonstrated the impact of these mobility changes on the proportion and demographic characteristics of PA levels. The most vulnerable in society, the elderly (ages 75+) and Black and Asian minority ethnicity (BAME) individuals were more likely to become physically inactive. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic reduced greenspace mobility and walking direction requests globally. Complementary assessment of English PA levels demonstrated a greater proportion of the population became inactive. Demographics (75+ and BAME) prone to worse COVID-19 outcomes became disproportionately inactive. UK Urban planning should prioritize greenspace development. This could improve city walkability and PA levels.

The Impact of Diabetes and Glucose-Lowering Therapies on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence and Overall Survival.

PURPOSE: The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United Kingdom has increased 60% in the past 10 years. The epidemics of obesity and type 2 diabetes are contributing factors. In this article, we examine the impact of diabetes and glucose-lowering treatments on HCC incidence and overall survival (OS). METHODS: Data from 1064 patients diagnosed with chronic liver disease (CLD) (n = 340) or HCC (n = 724) were collected from 2007 to 2012. Patients with HCC were followed up prospectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression determined HCC risk factors. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to examine survival and Cox proportional hazards analysis estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for death according to use of glucose-lowering therapies. FINDINGS: Diabetes prevalence was 39.6% and 10.6% within the HCC and CLD cohorts, respectively. The odds ratio for having HCC in patients with diabetes was 5.55 (P < 0.001). Univariate analysis found an increased association of HCC with age, sex, cirrhosis, hemochromatosis, alcohol abuse, diabetes, and Child's Pugh score. In multivariate analysis age, sex, cirrhosis, Child's Pugh score, diabetes status, and insulin use retained significance. Diabetes status did not significantly affect OS in HCC; however, in people with diabetes and HCC, metformin treatment was associated with improved OS (mean survival, 31 vs 24 months; P =0.016; HR for death = 0.75; P = 0.032). IMPLICATIONS: Diabetes is significantly associated with HCC in the United Kingdom. Metformin treatment is associated with improved OS after HCC diagnosis. Treatment of diabetes should be appropriately reviewed in high-risk populations, with specific consideration of the potential hepatoprotective effects of metformin in HCC.

Low Screening Rates Despite a High Prevalence of Significant Liver Fibrosis in People with Diabetes from Primary and Secondary Care.

Diabetes is a driver of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and fibrosis. We determine current practices in examining liver fibrosis in people with diabetes and record prevalence levels in primary and secondary care. We extracted HbA1c results ≥48 mmol/mol to identify people with diabetes, then examined the proportion who had AST, ALT, and platelets results, facilitating calculation of non-invasive fibrosis tests (NIT), or an enhanced liver fibrosis score. Fibrosis markers were requested in only 1.49% (390/26,090), of which 29.7% (n = 106) had evidence of significant fibrosis via NIT. All patients at risk of fibrosis had undergone transient elastography (TE), biopsy or imaging. TE and biopsy data showed that 80.6% of people with raised fibrosis markers had confirmed significant fibrosis. We also show that fibrosis levels as detected by NIT are marginally lower in patients treated with newer glucose lowering agents (sodium-glucose transporter protein 2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists). In conclusion by utilising a large consecutively recruited dataset we demonstrate that liver fibrosis is infrequently screened for in patients with diabetes despite high prevalence rates of advanced fibrosis. This highlights the need for cost-effectiveness analyses to support the incorporation of widespread screening into national guidelines and the requirement for healthcare practitioners to incorporate NAFLD screening into routine diabetes care.

Validation of the liver traffic light test as a predictive model for survival and development of liver-related events.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Liver disease mortality rates continue to rise due to late diagnosis. We need noninvasive tests to be made available in the community that can identify patients at risk from a serious liver-related event (SLE). We examine the performance of a blood test, the liver traffic light test (LTLT), with regard to its ability to predict survival and SLEs. METHODS: Using routinely gathered clinical data, sequential LTLT test results from 4854 individuals with suspected liver disease were prospectively analyzed (median follow-up 41 months). An SLE was defined as the development of cirrhosis, liver failure, ascites, or varices. Patients were graded as follows: red (high risk), amber (intermediate risk), and green (low risk). RESULTS: Overall, 565 individuals experienced an SLE (11.6%). The area under the curve (AUC) for the continuous LTLT variable was 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.89) for prediction of an SLE and 0.81 (0.78-0.84) for mortality. When categorized into red/amber/green grades, a red LTLT result predicted an SLE with negative and positive predictive values of 0.97 and 0.29, respectively. A red LTLT score predicted mortality with negative and positive predictive values of 0.98 and 0.18, respectively. Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated increased mortality and SLEs in the red group versus the green and amber groups (P < 0.001) and an increase in SLEs in the amber versus green group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Here, the LTLT is further validated for the prediction of survival and SLE development. The LTLT could aid primary care risk management and referral pathways with the aim of detecting and treating liver disease earlier in the general population.

Evidence-based clinical advice for nutrition and dietary weight loss strategies for the management of NAFLD and NASH.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and affects approximately one third of adults in the United States. The disease is becoming a global epidemic as a result of the rising rates of obesity and metabolic disease. Emerging data suggest weight loss of ≥10% overall body weight is beneficial in resolving steatosis and reversing fibrosis. Prospective trials comparing various diets are limited by lack of sufficient power as well as pre- and post-treatment histopathology, and therefore no specific diet is recommended at this time. In this narrative review we examine the pathophysiology behind specific macronutrient components that can either promote or reverse NAFLD to help inform more specific dietary recommendations. Overall, the data supports reducing saturated fat, refined carbohydrates, and red and processed meats in the diet, and increasing the consumption of plant-based foods. Diets that incorporate these recommendations include plant-based diets such as the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, Mediterranean, vegetarian, and vegan diets.

Constitutive Activation of Natural Killer Cells in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

Natural killer (NK) cells are innate immune cells that interface with the adaptive immune system to generate a pro-inflammatory immune environment. Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) is a hepatic autoimmune disorder with extrahepatic associations including systemic sclerosis, Sjogren's syndrome and thyroiditis. Immunogenetic studies have identified polymorphisms of the IL-12/STAT4 pathway as being associated with PBC. As this pathway is important for NK cell function we investigated NK cells in PBC. Circulating NK cells from individuals with PBC were constitutively activated, with higher levels of CD49a and the liver-homing marker, CXCR6, compared to participants with non-autoimmune chronic liver disease and healthy controls. Stimulation with minimal amounts of IL-12 (0.005 ng/ml) led to significant upregulation of CXCR6 (p < 0.005), and enhanced IFNγ production (p < 0.02) on NK cells from PBC patients compared to individuals with non-autoimmune chronic liver disease, indicating dysregulation of the IL-12/STAT4 axis. In RNAseq studies, resting NK cells from PBC patients had a constitutively activated transcriptional profile and upregulation of genes associated with IL-12/STAT4 signaling and metabolic reprogramming. Consistent with these findings, resting NK cells from PBC patients expressed higher levels of pSTAT4 compared to control groups (p < 0.001 vs. healthy controls and p < 0.05 vs. liver disease controls). In conclusion NK cells in PBC are sensitive to minute quantities of IL-12 and have a "primed" phenotype. We therefore propose that peripheral priming of NK cells to express tissue-homing markers may contribute to the pathophysiology of PBC.

A comparison of gender-linked population cancer risks between alcohol and tobacco: how many cigarettes are there in a bottle of wine?

BACKGROUND: In contrast to our knowledge about the number of cancers attributed to smoking, the number of cancers attributed to alcohol is poorly understood by the public. We estimate the increase in absolute risk of cancer (number of cases per 1000) attributed to moderate levels of alcohol, and compare these to the absolute risk of cancer attributed to low levels of smoking, creating a 'cigarette-equivalent of population cancer harm'. METHODS: Alcohol and tobacco attributable fractions were subtracted from lifetime general population risks of developing alcohol- and smoking-related cancers, to estimate the lifetime cancer risk in alcohol-abstaining non-smokers. This was multiplied by the relative risk of drinking ten units of alcohol or smoking ten cigarettes per week, and increasing levels of consumption. RESULTS: One bottle of wine per week is associated with an increased absolute lifetime cancer risk for non-smokers of 1.0% (men) and 1.4% (women). The overall absolute increase in cancer risk for one bottle of wine per week equals that of five (men) or ten cigarettes per week (women). Gender differences result from levels of moderate drinking leading to a 0.8% absolute risk of breast cancer in female non-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: One bottle of wine per week is associated with an increased absolute lifetime risk of alcohol-related cancers in women, driven by breast cancer, equivalent to the increased absolute cancer risk associated with ten cigarettes per week. These findings can help communicate that moderate levels of drinking are an important public health risk for women. The risks for men, equivalent to five cigarettes per week, are also of note.

National Early Warning Score Accurately Discriminates the Risk of Serious Adverse Events in Patients With Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is used to identify deteriorating adult hospital inpatients. However, it includes physiological parameters frequently altered in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the performance of the NEWS in acute and chronic liver diseases. METHODS: We collected vital signs, recorded in real time, from completed consecutive admissions of patients 16 years or older to a large acute-care hospital in Southern England, from January 1, 2010, through October 31, 2014. Using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, codes, we categorized patients as having primary liver disease, secondary liver disease, or none. For patients with liver disease, 2 analysis groups were developed: the first was based on clinical group (such as acute or chronic, alcohol-induced, or associated with portal hypertension), and the second was based on a summary of liver-related, hospital-level mortality indicator diagnoses. For each, we compared the abilities of the NEWS and 34 other early warning scores to discriminate 24-hour mortality, cardiac arrest, or unanticipated admission to the intensive care unit using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and early warning score efficiency curve analyses. RESULTS: The NEWS identified patients with primary, nonprimary, and no diagnoses of liver disease with AUROC values of 0.873 (95% CI, 0.860-0.886), 0.898 (95% CI, 0.891-0.905), and 0.879 (95% CI, 0.877-0.881), respectively. High AUROC values were also obtained for all clinical subgroups; the NEWS identified patients with alcohol-related liver disease with an AUROC value of 0.927 (95% CI, 0.912-0.941). The NEWS identified patients with liver diseases with higher AUROC values than other early warning scoring systems. CONCLUSIONS: The NEWS accurately discriminates patients at risk of death, admission to the intensive care unit, or cardiac arrest within a 24-hour period for a range of liver-related diagnoses. Its widespread use provides a ready-made, easy-to-use option for identifying patients with liver disease who require early assessment and intervention, without the need to modify parameters, weightings, or escalation criteria.

HLA-Bw4 80(T) and multiple HLA-Bw4 copies combined with KIR3DL1 associate with spontaneous clearance of HCV infection in people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Natural killer (NK) cell function is regulated by inhibitory and activating receptors including killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs). Here, we analyzed the impact of different KIR/KIR-ligand genotypes on the outcome of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in people who inject drugs (PWID). METHODS: KIR/KIR-ligand genotypes associated with spontaneous clearance of HCV infection were identified in a cohort of PWID from Germany (n=266) and further validated in a second anti-HCV positive cohort of PWID recruited in North America (n=342). NK cells of PWID and healthy donors were functionally characterized according to their KIR/KIR-ligand genotype by flow cytometry. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that KIR3DL1/HLA-Bw4 80(T) was associated with spontaneous clearance of HCV infection in PWID, which was confirmed in the PWID cohort from North America. Compared with PWID with detectable HCV RNA, the frequency of individuals with multiple HLA-Bw4 alleles was significantly higher in anti-HCV positive PWID with resolved HCV infection (29.7% vs. 15.2%; p=0.0229) and in anti-HCV seronegative PWID (39.2%; p=0.0006). KIR3DL1+ NK cells from HLA-Bw4 80(T)-positive PWID showed superior functionality compared to HLA-Bw4 80(I)-positive PWID. This differential impact was not observed in healthy donors; however, the HLA-Bw4 copy number strongly correlated with the functionality of KIR3DL1+ NK cells. CONCLUSIONS: HLA-Bw4-80(T) and multiple HLA-Bw4 copies in combination with KIR3DL1 are associated with protection against chronic hepatitis C in PWID by distinct mechanisms. Better licensing of KIR3DL1+ NK cells in the presence of multiple HLA-Bw4 copies is beneficial prior to seroconversion whereas HLA-Bw4 80(T) may be beneficial during acute hepatitis C. Lay summary: Natural killer (NK) cells are part of the innate immune system and are regulated by a complex network of activating and inhibiting receptors. The regulating receptor-ligand pairs of an individual are genetically determined. Here, we identified a particular set of ligand and receptor genes that are associated with better functionality of NK cells and better outcome upon exposure to HCV in a high-risk group.

Synergism of tapasin and human leukocyte antigens in resolving hepatitis C virus infection.

UNLABELLED: CD8+ T-cell responses to hepatitis C virus (HCV) are important in generating a successful immune response and spontaneously clearing infection. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I presents viral peptides to CD8+ T cells to permit detection of infected cells, and tapasin is an important component of the peptide loading complex for HLA class I. We sought to determine if tapasin polymorphisms affected the outcome of HCV infection. Patients with resolved or chronic HCV infection were genotyped for the known G/C coding polymorphism in exon 4 of the tapasin gene. In a European, but not a US, Caucasian population, the tapasin G allele was significantly associated with the outcome of HCV infection, being found in 82.5% of resolvers versus 71.3% of persistently infected individuals (P = 0.02, odds ratio [OR] = 1.90 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11-3.23). This was more marked at the HLA-B locus at which heterozygosity of both tapasin and HLA-B was protective (P < 0.03). Individuals with an HLA-B allele with an aspartate at residue 114 and the tapasin G allele were more likely to spontaneously resolve HCV infection (P < 0.00003, OR = 3.2 95% CI = 1.6-6.6). Additionally, individuals with chronic HCV and the combination of an HLA-B allele with an aspartate at residue 114 and the tapasin G allele also had stronger CD8+ T-cell responses (P = 0.02, OR = 2.58, 95% CI-1.05-6.5). CONCLUSION: Tapasin alleles contribute to the outcome of HCV infection by synergizing with polymorphisms at HLA-B in a population-specific manner. This polymorphism may be relevant for peptide vaccination strategies against HCV infection.