A branching stochastic evolutionary model of the B-cell repertoire.

We propose a stochastic framework to describe the evolution of the B-cell repertoire during germinal center (GC) reactions. Our model is formulated as a multitype age-dependent branching process with time-varying immigration. The immigration process captures the mechanism by which founder B cells initiate clones by gradually seeding GC over time, while the branching process describes the temporal evolution of the composition of these clones. The model assigns a type to each cell to represent attributes of interest. Examples of attributes include the binding affinity class of the B cells, their clonal family, or the nucleotide sequence of the heavy and light chains of their receptors. The process is generally non-Markovian. We present its properties, including as t → ∞ when the process is supercritical, the most relevant case to study expansion of GC B cells. We introduce temporal alpha and beta diversity indices for multitype branching processes. We focus on the dynamics of clonal dominance, highlighting its non-stationarity, and the accumulation of somatic hypermutations in the context of sequential immunization. We evaluate the impact of the ongoing seeding of GC by founder B cells on the dynamics of the B-cell repertoire, and quantify the effect of precursor frequency and antigen availability on the timing of GC entry. An application of the model illustrates how it may help with interpretation of BCR sequencing data.

Gene editing for latent herpes simplex virus infection reduces viral load and shedding in vivo.

Anti-HSV therapies are only suppressive because they do not eliminate latent HSV present in ganglionic neurons, the source of recurrent disease. We have developed a potentially curative approach against HSV infection, based on gene editing using HSV-specific meganucleases delivered by adeno-associated virus (AAV) vectors. Gene editing performed with two anti-HSV-1 meganucleases delivered by a combination of AAV9, AAV-Dj/8, and AAV-Rh10 can eliminate 90% or more of latent HSV DNA in mouse models of orofacial infection, and up to 97% of latent HSV DNA in mouse models of genital infection. Using a pharmacological approach to reactivate latent HSV-1, we demonstrate that ganglionic viral load reduction leads to a significant decrease of viral shedding in treated female mice. While therapy is well tolerated, in some instances, we observe hepatotoxicity at high doses and subtle histological evidence of neuronal injury without observable neurological signs or deficits. Simplification of the regimen through use of a single serotype (AAV9) delivering single meganuclease targeting a duplicated region of the HSV genome, dose reduction, and use of a neuron-specific promoter each results in improved tolerability while retaining efficacy. These results reinforce the curative potential of gene editing for HSV disease.

Impact of LS Mutation on Pharmacokinetics of Preventive HIV Broadly Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies: A Cross-Protocol Analysis of 16 Clinical Trials in People without HIV.

Monoclonal antibodies are commonly engineered with an introduction of Met428Leu and Asn434Ser, known as the LS mutation, in the fragment crystallizable region to improve pharmacokinetic profiles. The LS mutation delays antibody clearance by enhancing binding affinity to the neonatal fragment crystallizable receptor found on endothelial cells. To characterize the LS mutation for monoclonal antibodies targeting HIV, we compared pharmacokinetic parameters between parental versus LS variants for five pairs of anti-HIV immunoglobin G1 monoclonal antibodies (VRC01/LS/VRC07-523LS, 3BNC117/LS, PGDM1400/LS PGT121/LS, 10-1074/LS), analyzing data from 16 clinical trials of 583 participants without HIV. We described serum concentrations of these monoclonal antibodies following intravenous or subcutaneous administration by an open two-compartment disposition, with first-order elimination from the central compartment using non-linear mixed effects pharmacokinetic models. We compared estimated pharmacokinetic parameters using the targeted maximum likelihood estimation method, accounting for participant differences. We observed lower clearance rate, central volume, and peripheral volume of distribution for all LS variants compared to parental monoclonal antibodies. LS monoclonal antibodies showed several improvements in pharmacokinetic parameters, including increases in the elimination half-life by 2.7- to 4.1-fold, the dose-normalized area-under-the-curve by 4.1- to 9.5-fold, and the predicted concentration at 4 weeks post-administration by 3.4- to 7.6-fold. Results suggest a favorable pharmacokinetic profile of LS variants regardless of HIV epitope specificity. Insights support lower dosages and/or less frequent dosing of LS variants to achieve similar levels of antibody exposure in future clinical applications.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in the Nasopharynx at Time of First Infection Among Unvaccinated Individuals: A Secondary Cross-Protocol Analysis of 4 Randomized Trials.

Importance: SARS-CoV-2 viral load (VL) in the nasopharynx is difficult to quantify and standardize across settings, but it may inform transmission potential and disease severity. Objective: To characterize VL at COVID-19 diagnosis among previously uninfected and unvaccinated individuals by evaluating the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with VL, as well as the ability of VL to predict severe disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary cross-protocol analysis used individual-level data from placebo recipients from 4 harmonized, phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials sponsored by Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax. Participants were SARS-CoV-2 negative at baseline and acquired COVID-19 during the blinded phase of the trials. The setting included the US, Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Chile, and Mexico; start dates were July 27, 2020, to December 27, 2020; data cutoff dates were March 26, 2021, to July 30, 2021. Statistical analysis was performed from November 2022 to June 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Linear regression was used to assess the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with polymerase chain reaction-measured log10 VL in nasal and/or nasopharyngeal swabs taken at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Results: Among 1667 participants studied (886 [53.1%] male; 995 [59.7%] enrolled in the US; mean [SD] age, 46.7 [14.7] years; 204 [12.2%] aged 65 years or older; 196 [11.8%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 150 [9%] Black or African American, 1112 [66.7%] White; 762 [45.7%] Hispanic or Latino), median (IQR) log10 VL at diagnosis was 6.18 (4.66-7.12) log10 copies/mL. Participant characteristics and viral variant explained only 5.9% of the variability in VL. The independent factor with the highest observed differences was trial: Janssen participants had 0.54 log10 copies/mL lower mean VL vs Moderna participants (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.87 log10 copies/mL lower). In the Janssen study, which captured the largest number of COVID-19 events and variants and used the most intensive post-COVID surveillance, neither VL at diagnosis nor averaged over days 1 to 28 post diagnosis was associated with COVID-19 severity. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study of placebo recipients from 4 randomized phase 3 trials, high variability was observed in SARS-CoV-2 VL at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, and only a fraction was explained by individual participant characteristics or viral variant. These results suggest challenges for future studies of interventions seeking to influence VL and elevates the importance of standardized methods for specimen collection and viral load quantitation.

HIV BG505 SOSIP.664 trimer with 3M-052-AF/alum induces human autologous tier-2 neutralizing antibodies.

Stabilized trimers preserving the native-like HIV envelope structure may be key components of a preventive HIV vaccine regimen to induce broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs). We evaluated trimeric BG505 SOSIP.664 gp140, formulated with a novel TLR7/8 signaling adjuvant, 3M-052-AF/Alum, for safety, adjuvant dose-finding and immunogenicity in a first-in-healthy adult (n=17), randomized, placebo-controlled trial (HVTN 137A). The vaccine regimen appeared safe. Robust, trimer-specific antibody, B-cell and CD4+ T-cell responses emerged post-vaccination. Five vaccinees developed serum autologous tier-2 nAbs (ID50 titer, 1:28-1:8647) after 2-3 doses targeting C3/V5 and/or V1/V2/V3 Env regions by electron microscopy and mutated pseudovirus-based neutralization analyses. Trimer-specific, B-cell-derived monoclonal antibody activities confirmed these results and showed weak heterologous neutralization in the strongest responder. Our findings demonstrate the clinical utility of the 3M-052-AF/alum adjuvant and support further improvements of trimer-based Env immunogens to focus responses on multiple broad nAb epitopes. KEY TAKEAWAY/TAKE-HOME MESSAGES: HIV BG505 SOSIP.664 trimer with novel 3M-052-AF/alum adjuvant in humans appears safe and induces serum neutralizing antibodies to matched clade A, tier 2 virus, that map to diverse Env epitopes with relatively high titers. The novel adjuvant may be an important mediator of vaccine response.

Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features.

In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial (NCT04505722), estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were determined from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19. In this set of prespecified analyses, we show that in Latin America, VE was significantly lower against Lambda vs. Reference and against Lambda vs. non-Lambda [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-insert at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20); significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 antibody-epitope escape scores and 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccinee sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against the most distant viruses.

Human immunoglobulin gene allelic variation impacts germline-targeting vaccine priming.

Vaccine priming immunogens that activate germline precursors for broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) have promise for development of precision vaccines against major human pathogens. In a clinical trial of the eOD-GT8 60mer germline-targeting immunogen, higher frequencies of vaccine-induced VRC01-class bnAb-precursor B cells were observed in the high dose compared to the low dose group. Through immunoglobulin heavy chain variable (IGHV) genotyping, statistical modeling, quantification of IGHV1-2 allele usage and B cell frequencies in the naive repertoire for each trial participant, and antibody affinity analyses, we found that the difference between dose groups in VRC01-class response frequency was best explained by IGHV1-2 genotype rather than dose and was most likely due to differences in IGHV1-2 B cell frequencies for different genotypes. The results demonstrate the need to define population-level immunoglobulin allelic variations when designing germline-targeting immunogens and evaluating them in clinical trials.

A Randomised Clinical Trial of the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of VRC07-523LS Administered via Different Routes and Doses (HVTN 127/HPTN 087).

Background: Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are a promising approach for HIV-1 prevention. In the only bnAb HIV prevention efficacy studies to date, the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials, a CD4-binding site targeting bnAb, VRC01, administered intravenously (IV), demonstrated 75% prevention efficacy against highly neutralization-sensitive viruses but was ineffective against less sensitive viruses. Greater efficacy is required before passively administered bnAbs become a viable option for HIV prevention; furthermore subcutaneous (SC) or intramuscular (IM) administration may be preferred. VRC07-523LS is a next-generation bnAb targeting the CD4-binding site and was engineered for increased neutralization breadth and half-life. Methods: Participants were recruited between 02 February 2018 and 09 October 2018. 124 healthy participants without HIV were randomized to receive five VRC07-523LS administrations via IV (T1: 2.5 mg/kg, T2: 5 mg/kg, T3: 20 mg/kg), SC (T4: 2.5 mg/kg, T5: 5 mg/kg) or IM (T6: 2.5 mg/kg or P6: placebo) routes at four-month intervals. Safety data were collected for 144 weeks following the first administration. VRC07-523LS serum concentrations were measured by ELISA after the first dose through Day 112 in all participants and by binding antibody multiplex assay (BAMA) thereafter in 60 participants (10 per treatment group) through Day 784. Compartmental population pharmacokinetic (PK) analyses were conducted to evaluate the VRC07-523LS serum pharmacokinetics. Neutralization activity was measured in a TZM-bl assay and anti-drug antibodies (ADA) were assayed using a tiered bridging assay testing strategy. Results: Injections were well-tolerated, with mild pain or tenderness reported commonly in the SC and IM groups, and mild to moderate erythema or induration reported commonly in the SC groups. Infusions were generally well-tolerated, with infusion reactions reported in 3 of 20 participants in the 20 mg/kg IV group. Peak geometric mean (GM) concentrations (95% confidence intervals) following the first administration were 29.0 µg/mL (25.2, 33.4), 58.5 µg/mL (49.4, 69.3), and 257.2 µg/mL (127.5, 518.9) in T1-T3 with IV dosing; 10.8 µg/mL (8.8, 13.3) and 22.8 µg/mL (20.1, 25.9) in T4-T5 with SC dosing; and 16.4 µg/mL (14.7, 18.2) in T6 with IM dosing. Trough GM concentrations immediately prior to the second administration were 3.4 µg/mL (2.5, 4.6), 6.5 µg/mL (5.6, 7.5), and 27.2 µg/mL (23.9, 31.0) with IV dosing; 0.97 µg/mL (0.65, 1.4) and 3.1 µg/mL (2.2, 4.3) with SC dosing, and 2.6 µg/mL (2.05, 3.31) with IM dosing. Peak VRC07-523LS serum concentrations increased linearly with the administered dose. At a given dose, peak and trough concentrations, as well as serum neutralization titres, were highest in the IV groups, reflecting the lower bioavailability following SC and IM administration. A single participant was found to have low titre ADA at a lone timepoint. VRC07-523LS has an estimated mean half-life of 42 days (95% CI: 40.5, 43.5), approximately twice as long as VRC01. Conclusions: VRC07-523LS was safe and well-tolerated across a range of doses and routes and is a promising long-acting bnAb for inclusion in HIV-1 prevention regimens.

Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features.

It is of interest to pinpoint SARS-CoV-2 sequence features defining vaccine resistance. In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial, estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were measured from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19 during the trial. In Latin America, where Spike diversity was greatest, VE was significantly lower against Lambda than against Reference and against all non-Lambda variants [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE also differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-strain residue at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20). VE significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 different antibody-epitope escape scores and by 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccine recipient sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against viruses with greatest distances. These results help map antigenic specificity of in vivo vaccine protection.

A first-in-human germline-targeting HIV nanoparticle vaccine induced broad and publicly targeted helper T cell responses.

The engineered outer domain germline targeting version 8 (eOD-GT8) 60-mer nanoparticle was designed to prime VRC01-class HIV-specific B cells that would need to be matured, through additional heterologous immunizations, into B cells that are able to produce broadly neutralizing antibodies. CD4 T cell help will be critical for the development of such high-affinity neutralizing antibody responses. Thus, we assessed the induction and epitope specificities of the vaccine-specific T cells from the IAVI G001 phase 1 clinical trial that tested immunization with eOD-GT8 60-mer adjuvanted with AS01B. Robust polyfunctional CD4 T cells specific for eOD-GT8 and the lumazine synthase (LumSyn) component of eOD-GT8 60-mer were induced after two vaccinations with either the 20- or 100-microgram dose. Antigen-specific CD4 T helper responses to eOD-GT8 and LumSyn were observed in 84 and 93% of vaccine recipients, respectively. CD4 helper T cell epitope "hotspots" preferentially targeted across participants were identified within both the eOD-GT8 and LumSyn proteins. CD4 T cell responses specific to one of these three LumSyn epitope hotspots were observed in 85% of vaccine recipients. Last, we found that induction of vaccine-specific peripheral CD4 T cells correlated with expansion of eOD-GT8-specific memory B cells. Our findings demonstrate strong human CD4 T cell responses to an HIV vaccine candidate priming immunogen and identify immunodominant CD4 T cell epitopes that might improve human immune responses either to heterologous boost immunogens after this prime vaccination or to other human vaccine immunogens.

Longitudinal home self-collection of capillary blood using homeRNA correlates interferon and innate viral defense pathways with SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance.

Blood transcriptional profiling is a powerful tool to evaluate immune responses to infection; however, blood collection via traditional phlebotomy remains a barrier to precise characterization of the immune response in dynamic infections (e.g., respiratory viruses). Here we present an at-home self-collection methodology, homeRNA, to study the host transcriptional response during acute SARS-CoV-2 infections. This method uniquely enables high frequency measurement of the host immune kinetics in non-hospitalized adults during the acute and most dynamic stage of their infection. COVID-19+ and healthy participants self-collected blood every other day for two weeks with daily nasal swabs and symptom surveys to track viral load kinetics and symptom burden, respectively. While healthy uninfected participants showed remarkably stable immune kinetics with no significant dynamic genes, COVID-19+ participants, on the contrary, depicted a robust response with over 418 dynamic genes associated with interferon and innate viral defense pathways. When stratified by vaccination status, we detected distinct response signatures between unvaccinated and breakthrough (vaccinated) infection subgroups; unvaccinated individuals portrayed a response repertoire characterized by higher innate antiviral responses, interferon signaling, and cytotoxic lymphocyte responses while breakthrough infections portrayed lower levels of interferon signaling and enhanced early cell-mediated response. Leveraging cross-platform longitudinal sampling (nasal swabs and blood), we observed that IFI27, a key viral response gene, tracked closely with SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance in individual participants. Taken together, these results demonstrate that at-home sampling can capture key host antiviral responses and facilitate frequent longitudinal sampling to detect transient host immune kinetics during dynamic immune states.

Human immunoglobulin gene allelic variation impacts germline-targeting vaccine priming.

Vaccine priming immunogens that activate germline precursors for broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) have promise for development of precision vaccines against major human pathogens. In a clinical trial of the eOD-GT8 60mer germline-targeting immunogen, higher frequencies of vaccine-induced VRC01-class bnAb-precursor B cells were observed in the high dose compared to the low dose group. Through immunoglobulin heavy chain variable (IGHV) genotyping, statistical modeling, quantification of IGHV1-2 allele usage and B cell frequencies in the naive repertoire for each trial participant, and antibody affinity analyses, we found that the difference between dose groups in VRC01-class response frequency was best explained by IGHV1-2 genotype rather than dose and was most likely due to differences in IGHV1-2 B cell frequencies for different genotypes. The results demonstrate the need to define population-level immunoglobulin allelic variations when designing germline-targeting immunogens and evaluating them in clinical trials. One-Sentence Summary: Human genetic variation can modulate the strength of vaccine-induced broadly neutralizing antibody precursor B cell responses.

Immune correlates analysis of the ENSEMBLE single Ad26.COV2.S dose vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (<2.7 IU50 ml-1) and increased to 89% (78%, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50 ml-1. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titre curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported the ID50 titre as a correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Lower SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral immunity in people living with HIV-1 recovered from nonhospitalized COVID-19.

People living with HIV-1 (PLWH) exhibit more rapid antibody decline following routine immunization and elevated baseline chronic inflammation than people without HIV-1 (PWOH), indicating potential for diminished humoral immunity during SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conflicting reports have emerged on the ability of PLWH to maintain humoral protection against SARS-CoV-2 coinfection during convalescence. It is unknown whether peak COVID-19 severity, along with HIV-1 infection status, associates with the quality and quantity of humoral immunity following recovery. Using a cross-sectional observational cohort from the United States and Peru, adults were enrolled 1-10 weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosis or symptom resolution. Serum antibodies were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2-specific response rates, binding magnitudes, ACE2 receptor blocking, and antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis. Overall, (a) PLWH exhibited a trend toward decreased magnitude of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, despite modestly increased overall response rates when compared with PWOH; (b) PLWH recovered from symptomatic outpatient COVID-19 had comparatively diminished immune responses; and (c) PLWH lacked a corresponding increase in SARS-CoV-2 antibodies with increased COVID-19 severity when asymptomatic versus symptomatic outpatient disease was compared.

Immune Correlates Analysis of a Single Ad26.COV2.S Dose in the ENSEMBLE COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial.

Anti-spike IgG binding antibody, anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibody, and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements four weeks post-vaccination were assessed as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 outcomes through 83 days post-vaccination and as correlates of protection following a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine in the placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international, randomized efficacy trial. Each marker had evidence as a correlate of risk and of protection, with strongest evidence for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titer. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; p=0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43, 72%) at nonquantifiable ID50 (< 2.7 IU50/ml) and rose to 89% (78, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50/ml. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titer curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported consistency of the ID50 titer correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

An international, interlaboratory ring trial confirms the feasibility of an extraction-less "direct" RT-qPCR method for reliable detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in clinical samples.

Reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) is used worldwide to test and trace the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). "Extraction-less" or "direct" real time-reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is a transparent and accessible qualitative method for SARS-CoV-2 detection from nasopharyngeal or oral pharyngeal samples with the potential to generate actionable data more quickly, at a lower cost, and with fewer experimental resources than full RT-qPCR. This study engaged 10 global testing sites, including laboratories currently experiencing testing limitations due to reagent or equipment shortages, in an international interlaboratory ring trial. Participating laboratories were provided a common protocol, common reagents, aliquots of identical pooled clinical samples, and purified nucleic acids and used their existing in-house equipment. We observed 100% concordance across laboratories in the correct identification of all positive and negative samples, with highly similar cycle threshold values. The test also performed well when applied to locally collected patient nasopharyngeal samples, provided the viral transport media did not contain charcoal or guanidine, both of which appeared to potently inhibit the RT-PCR reaction. Our results suggest that direct RT-PCR assay methods can be clearly translated across sites utilizing readily available equipment and expertise and are thus a feasible option for more efficient COVID-19 coronavirus disease testing as demanded by the continuing pandemic.

The quest for vaccine-induced immune correlates of protection against tuberculosis.

Immunization strategies against tuberculosis (TB) that confer better protection than neonatal vaccination with the 101-year-old Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) are urgently needed to control the epidemic, but clinical development is hampered by a lack of established immune correlates of protection (CoPs). Two phase 2b clinical trials offer the first opportunity to discover human CoPs against TB. Adolescent BCG re-vaccination showed partial protection against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection, as measured by sustained IFNγ release assay (IGRA) conversion. Adult M72/AS01E vaccination showed partial protection against pulmonary TB. We describe two collaborative research programs to discover CoPs against TB and ensure rigorous, streamlined use of available samples, involving international immunology experts in TB and state-of-the-art technologies, sponsors and funders. Hypotheses covering immune responses thought to be important in protection against TB have been defined and prioritized. A statistical framework to integrate the data analysis strategy was developed. Exploratory analyses will be performed to generate novel hypotheses.

Neutralizing antibody responses over time in demographically and clinically diverse individuals recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States and Peru: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: People infected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) experience a wide range of clinical manifestations, from asymptomatic and mild illness to severe illness and death, influenced by age and a variety of comorbidities. Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are thought to be a primary immune defense against the virus. Large, diverse, well-characterized cohorts of convalescent individuals provide standardized values to benchmark nAb responses to past SARS-CoV-2 infection and define potentially protective levels of immunity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This analysis comprises an observational cohort of 329 HIV-seronegative adults in the United States (n = 167) and Peru (n = 162) convalescing from SARS-CoV-2 infection from May through October 2020. The mean age was 48 years (range 18 to 86), 54% of the cohort overall was Hispanic, and 34% identified as White. nAb titers were measured in serum by SARS-CoV-2.D614G Spike-pseudotyped virus infection of 293T/ACE2 cells. Multiple linear regression was applied to define associations between nAb titers and demographic variables, disease severity and time from infection or disease onset, and comorbidities within and across US and Peruvian cohorts over time. nAb titers peaked 28 to 42 days post-diagnosis and were higher in participants with a history of severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (p < 0.001). Diabetes, age >55 years, male sex assigned at birth, and, in some cases, body mass index were also independently associated with higher nAb titers, whereas hypertension was independently associated with lower nAb titers. nAb titers did not differ by race, underlying pulmonary disease or smoking. Two months post-enrollment, nAb ID50 (ID80) titers declined 3.5 (2.8)-fold overall. Study limitations in this observational, convalescent cohort include survivorship bias and missing early viral loads and acute immune responses to correlate with the convalescent responses we observed. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, in our cohort, nAb titers after SARS-CoV-2 infection peaked approximately 1 month post-diagnosis and varied by age, sex assigned at birth, disease severity, and underlying comorbidities. Our data show great heterogeneity in nAb responses among people with recent COVID-19, highlighting the challenges of interpreting natural history studies and gauging responses to vaccines and therapeutics among people with recent infection. Our observations illuminate potential correlations of demographic and clinical characteristics with nAb responses, a key element for protection from COVID-19, thus informing development and implementation of preventative and therapeutic strategies globally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04403880.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.