Argopistes Motschulsky from Madagascar with descriptions of six new species (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae, Alticini).

The revision of the flea beetle genus Argopistes Motschulsky, 1860 in Madagascar is provided. Six new species are described: Argopistesjanakmoravecorumsp. nov., A.laterosinuatussp. nov., and A.vadoni from the northern area; A.jenisisp. nov., A.keiserisp. nov., and A.seyrigisp. nov. from the central area. A new synonym of Argopistesbrunneus Weise, 1895 is established: A.sexguttatus Weise, 1895, syn. nov., since A.sexguttatus is shown to be a chromatic form of A.brunneus. A diagnostic key of the seven Malagasy Argopistes species is provided, with photographs of the habitus, median lobe of the aedeagus, and spermatheca. Finally, based on known occurrences, the current suitable areas for this flea beetle genus in Madagascar are estimated using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) techniques.

Up and down from North to South: Latitudinal Distribution of Flea Beetle Genera in Continental Africa (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae, Alticini).

The distribution of global biodiversity can be investigated based on comprehensive datasets and many methods to process them. The taxonomic diversity of phytophagous insects is typically linked to plant diversity, which increases from temperate to tropical latitudes. In this paper, we explored the latitudinal distribution of the flea beetle genera (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae, Alticini) on the African continent. We divided the area into latitudinal belts and looked for possible correlations with the number and types of vegetational divisions, the area of each belt, and the bioclimatic variables. The number of flea beetle genera is related to the number and types of vegetation divisions rather than the area of each belt. Some bioclimatic variables are highly related to the number of genera, which is higher within those belts where climate factors limit the oscillation of temperature over the year and favor high precipitations, especially in the warmest months. These biotic and abiotic factors lead to a two-peak trend in the taxonomic richness of flea beetle genera from north to south. Genera endemic to restricted areas are linked to the presence of high mountain systems and increase the taxonomic richness of the belt they belong to.

Survived the Glaciations, Will They Survive the Fish? Allochthonous Ichthyofauna and Alpine Endemic Newts: A Road Map for a Conservation Strategy.

The Calabrian Alpine newt (Ichthyosaura alpestris inexpectata) is a glacial relict with small and extremely localised populations in the Catena Costiera (Calabria, Southern Italy) and is considered to be "Endangered" by the Italian IUCN assessment. Climate-induced habitat loss and recent fish introductions in three lakes of the Special Area of Conservation (SAC) Laghi di Fagnano threaten the subspecies' survival in the core of its restricted range. Considering these challenges, understanding the distribution and abundance of this newt is crucial. We surveyed the spatially clustered wetlands in the SAC and neighbouring areas. First, we provide the updated distribution of this subspecies, highlighting fish-invaded and fishless sites historically known to host Calabrian Alpine newt populations and two new breeding sites that have been recently colonised. Then, we provide a rough estimate of the abundance, body size and body condition of breeding adults and habitat characteristics in fish-invaded and fishless ponds. We did not detect Calabrian Alpine newts at two historically known sites now invaded by fish. Our results indicate a reduction in occupied sites and small-size populations. These observations highlight the need for future strategies, such as fish removal, the creation of alternative breeding habitats and captive breeding, to preserve this endemic taxon.

Assessing future shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity to old-growth forests to support the conservation of the endangered giant noctule.

Background: Suitable climate and availability of habitats for roosting, foraging, and dispersing are critical for the long-term persistence of bat species. The giant noctule (Nyctalus lasiopterus) represents one of the lesser-known European bats, especially regarding the environmental factors which shape its distribution. Methodology: We integrated climate-based ecological niche models with information about topography and rivers' network to model weighted suitability for N. lasiopterus in the western Palearctic. The weighted suitability map was then used to estimate connectivity among the distinct occurrence localities of N. lasiopterus, as well as from these latter towards European old-growth forests, under current conditions and different combinations of future timeframes (2030, 2050, 2070) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 3.70 and 5.85). Results: Current weighted suitability is highest in Andalusia, northern Iberia, southwestern France, peninsular Italy, coastal Balkans and Anatolia, with dispersed suitable patches elsewhere. A north-eastward shift of weighted suitability emerges in the considered future scenarios, especially under SSP 5.85. The major current ecological corridors for N. lasiopterus are predicted within a 'belt' connecting northern Spain and southwestern France, as well as in the Italian Alps. However, following changes in weighted suitability, connectivity would increase in central-eastern Europe in the future. The bioclimatic niche of the western N. lasiopterus populations does not overlap with those of the central and eastern ones, and it only overlaps with climatic conditions characterizing old-growth forests in western Europe. Conclusions: The outcomes of our analyses would help in designing specific conservation measures for the distinct groups of giant noctule populations, favoring the possibility of range expansion and movement towards forested habitats.

Taxonomy, Habitat Preference, and Niche Overlap of Two Arrow-Poison Flea Beetle Species of the Genus Polyclada in Sub-Saharan Africa (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae).

Coupling the geographic distribution and the ecological requirements of species often supports taxonomy and biogeography. In this contribution, we update the distribution of two flea beetle species of ethno-entomological interest, Polyclada bohemani and P. pectinicornis, by analyzing original data. In addition, we supply their main morphological diagnostic characters, describing their aedeagal and spermathecal shapes for the first time. We also assess their niche differences in terms of climatic and vegetation needs, by means of ecological niche modelling and remote sensing techniques. Several new localities were identified to improve knowledge of the geographical distribution of both species. Moreover, we located a wide climatic suitability overlap in East Africa for these two flea beetle species, while in other areas they show a clear separation. Our analysis also reports that P. bohemani is associated with areas of denser tree cover than P. pectinicornis. Finally, the lectotypes of Diamphidia bohemani Baly, 1861, Clytra pectinicornis Olivier, 1791, and Diamphidia compacta Fairmaire, 1887 are here designated and the new synonymy Clytra pectinicornis Olivier = Diamphidia compacta Fairmaire syn.nov. is proposed.

Calothecanigromaculata species-group from sub-Saharan Africa with descriptions of two new species from KwaZulu-Natal (Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae, Alticini).

Calotheca Heyden is a flea beetle genus with a largely sub-Saharan distribution and currently comprising 34 species. The examination of new material is revealing an increase in species richness and intraspecific variability. Calothecacarolineae sp. nov. and C.wanati sp. nov., both from KwaZulu-Natal in the Republic of South Africa, are here described and attributed to the C.nigromaculata (Jacoby) species group, mainly based on genitalic characters. Photographs of the main diagnostic characters are provided, including the habitus, median lobe of the aedeagus, and spermatheca. Information on the geographic distribution and host plants of these species is also provided.

Climatic Niche, Altitudinal Distribution, and Vegetation Type Preference of the Flea Beetle Genus Arsipoda in New Caledonia (Coleoptera Chrysomelidae).

New Caledonia is one of the major biodiversity hotspots. The flea beetle genus Arsipoda (Coleoptera Chrysomelidae) is present with 21 species, all endemic. We investigated, using GIS analyses and ecological niche models, the habitat preferences of these species in terms of vegetation types, altitude, and climate, and assessed the adequacy of knowledge on the spatial parameters affecting the distribution of the genus in New Caledonia. Altitude and geology seem to play an important role in shaping species distribution. Volcanic substrate allows the growth of ultramafic vegetation, which includes most of their host plants. From a biogeographic and conservation perspective, our results report a deep link between Arsipoda species and their habitats, making them particularly sensitive to environmental modifications.

DBSCAN and GIE, Two Density-Based "Grid-Free" Methods for Finding Areas of Endemism: A Case Study of Flea Beetles (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) in the Afrotropical Region.

Areas of endemism (AoEs) are a central area of research in biogeography. Different methods have been proposed for their identification in the literature. In this paper, a "grid-free" method based on the "Density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise" (DBSCAN) is here used for the first time to locate areas of endemism for species belonging to the beetle tribe Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae, Alticini in the Afrotropical Region. The DBSCAN is compared with the "Geographic Interpolation of Endemism" (GIE), another "grid-free" method based on a kernel density approach. DBSCAN and GIE both return largely overlapping results, detecting the same geographical locations for the AoEs, but with different delimitations, surfaces, and number of detected sinendemisms. The consensus maps obtained by GIE are in general less clearly delimited than the maps obtained by DBSCAN, but nevertheless allow us to evaluate the core of the AoEs more precisely, representing of the percentage levels of the overlap of the centroids. DBSCAN, on the other hand, appears to be faster and more sensitive in identifying the AoEs. To facilitate implementing the delimitation of the AoEs through the procedure proposed by us, a new tool named "CLUENDA" (specifically developed is in GIS environment) is also made available.

Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies.

AIMS: Rice is a staple food for many countries, being fundamental for a large part of the worlds' population. In sub-Saharan Africa, its importance is currently high and is likely to become even more relevant, considering that the number of people and the per-capita consumption are both predicted to increase. The flea beetles belonging to the Chaetocnema pulla species group (pulla group), a harmful rice pest, are an important vector of the Rice Yellow Mottle Virus, a disease which leads even to 80-100% yield losses in rice production. We present a continental-scale study aiming at: (1) locating current and future suitable territories for both pulla group and rice; (2) identifying areas where rice cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of pulla group using an Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) approach; (3) estimating current and future connectivity among pulla group populations and areas predicted to host rice cultivations, based on the most recent land-use estimates for future agricultural trends; (4) proposing a new connectivity index called "Pest Aggression Index" (PAI) to measure the agricultural susceptibility to the potential future invasions of pests and disease; (5) quantifying losses in terms of production when rice cultivations co-occur with the pulla group and identifying the SSA countries which, in the future inferred scenarios, will potentially suffer the greatest losses. LOCATION: Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Since the ongoing climate and land-use changes affect species' distributions, we first assess the impact of these changes through a spatially-jackknifed Maxent-based Ecological Niche Modelling in GIS environment, for both the pulla group and rice, in two climatic/socioeconomic future scenarios (SSP_2.45 and 3.70). We then assess the connectivity potential of the pulla group populations towards rice cultivations, for both current and future predictions, through a circuit theory-based approach (Circuitscape implemented in Julia language). We finally measure the rice production and GPD loss per country through the spatial index named "Pest Aggression Index", based on the inferred connectivity magnitude. RESULTS: The most considerable losses in rice production are observed for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Madagascar in all future scenarios (2030, 2050, 2070). The future economic cost, calculated as USD lost from rice losses/country's GDP results are high for Central African Republic (-0.6% in SSP_2.45 and -3.0% in SSP_3.70) and Guinea-Bissau (-0.4% in SSP_2.45 and -0.68% in SSP_3.70), with relevant losses also obtained for other countries. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Since our results are spatially explicit and focused on each country, we encourage careful land-use planning. Our findings could support best practices to avoid the future settlement of new cultivations in territories where rice would be attacked by pulla group and the virus, bringing economic and biodiversity losses.

Determinants of habitat suitability models transferability across geographically disjunct populations: Insights from Vipera ursinii urs inii.

Transferability of habitat suitability models (HSMs), essential to accurately predict outside calibration conditions, has been seldom investigated at intraspecific level. We targeted Vipera ursinii ursinii, a meadow viper from southeastern France and central Italy, to assess determinants of transferability among geographically disjunct populations. We fitted HSMs upon occurrences of the Italian and French populations separately, as well as on the combined occurrence dataset. Internal transferability of HSMs, on spatially independent test data drawn from the calibration region, and their external transferability on the geographically disjunct populations were evaluated according to (a) use of full or spatially rarefied presence datasets; (b) ecology-driven or statistics-driven filtering of predictors; (c) modeling algorithm, testing generalized additive models and gradient boosting models; and (d) multivariate environmental novelty within test data. Niche overlap between French and Italian populations was also tested. Niche overlap was low, but niche divergence between the two populations' clusters was not corroborated. Nonetheless, wider niche breadth and heterogeneity of background environmental conditions characterizing the French populations led to low intercluster transferability. Although models fitted on the combined datasets did not attain consistently higher internal transferability than those separately fitted for the French and Italian populations, ensemble projection from the HSMs fitted on the joint occurrences produced more consistent suitability predictions across the full range of V. u. ursinii. Spatial thinning of occurrences ameliorated internal transferability but did not affect external transferability. The two approaches to predictors filtering did not differ in transferability of the respective HSMs but led to discrepant estimated environment-occurrence relationships and spatial predictions, while the two algorithms attained different relative rankings depending on the considered prediction task. Multivariate novelty of projection sites was negatively correlated to both internal transferability and external transferability. Our findings clarify issues researchers should keep in mind when using HSMs to get predictions across geographically disjunct populations.

Habitat Specificity, Host Plants and Areas of Endemism for the Genera-Group Blepharida s.l. in the Afrotropical Region (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae, Alticini).

The genus Calotheca Heyden (Chrysomelidae) is mainly distributed in the eastern and southern parts of sub-Saharan Africa, with some extensions northward, while Blepharidina Bechyné occurs in the intertropical zone of Africa, with two subgenera, Blepharidina s. str. and Blepharidina(Afroblepharida) Biondi and D'Alessandro. These genera show different ecological preferences. Through an up-to-date presence-absence dataset, in the light of the terrestrial ecoregions of sub-Saharan Africa and the distribution of their possible host plants, we interpreted the pattern of occurrence of these three supraspecific taxa, by geostatistical analyses in GIS and R environments. The separation of Blepharidina from Calotheca was probably driven by changes in climate as adaptation to more xeric and warm environments with a major occupancy of semidesert and savannah habitats, especially in the Afroblepharida species. Based on our data and analyses, Calotheca is mainly associated with Searsia (Anacardiaceae), and Blepharidina is likely associated with Commiphora (Burseraceae). This hypothesis is also corroborated by the widespread and even dominance of the Commiphora plants in the ecoregions where both Blepharidina s.str. and, above all, Afroblepharida, are more common. The main areas of endemism of the two genera are also differently located: Calotheca in the temperate zone; Blepharidina within the intertropical belt.

Spatial distribution of stygobitic crustacean harpacticoids at the boundaries of groundwater habitat types in Europe.

The distribution patterns of stygobitic crustacean harpacticoids at the boundaries of three different groundwater habitat types in Europe were analysed through a GIS proximity analysis and fitted to exponential models. The results showed that the highest frequency of occurrences was recorded in aquifers in consolidated rocks, followed by the aquifers in unconsolidated sediments and, finally, by the practically non-aquiferous rocks. The majority of the stygobitic harpacticoid species were not able to disperse across the boundaries between two adjacent habitats, with 66% of the species occurring in a single habitat type. The species were not evenly distributed, and 35-69% of them occurred from 2 to 6 km to the boundaries, depending on the adjacent habitat types. The distribution patterns were shaped by features extrinsic to the species, such as the hydrogeological properties of the aquifers, and by species' intrinsic characteristics such as the preference for a given habitat type and dispersal abilities. Most boundaries between adjacent habitat types resulted to be "breaches", that is transmissive borders for stygobitic harpacticoids, while others were "impermeable walls", that is absorptive borders. Our results suggest that conservation measures of groundwater harpacticoids should consider how species are distributed within the different groundwater habitat types and at their boundaries to ensure the preservation of species metapopulations within habitat patches and beyond them.

Adamastoraltica humicola, new genus and new species: the first example of possible moss-inhabiting flea beetle genus from sub-Saharan Africa (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae).

Adamastoraltica humicola gen. nov. and sp. nov. from the Republic of South Africa (Western Cape Province) is described. The new genus, collected in the humus, shows external characteristics typical of the moss-inhabiting flea beetle genera, mainly: very small size, very convex and subglobose body, antennae with enlarged apical antennomeres, strongly reduced hind wings, greatly simplified and shortened mesothorax and metathorax, and elytra lacking humeral calli. Adamastoraltica gen. nov. shows some similarities with the Asian genus Cangshanaltica Konstantinov, Chamorro, Prathapan, Ge Yang. However, the absence of the scutellum brings this new genus close to Stegnaspea Baly, also occurring in Western Cape Province. For the new flea beetle genus, data on distribution are supplied, along with preliminary ecological notes. Photomicrographs of main morphological characters, including male and female genitalia, and metafemoral extensor tendon are also provided. Finally, the updated distribution of the moss-inhabiting flea beetle genera described so far, excluding the subtribe Monoplatina, is supplied.

Investigating the Current and Future Co-Occurrence of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ophraella communa in Europe through Ecological Modelling and Remote Sensing Data Analysis.

The common ragweed Ambrosia artemisiifolia has spread throughout Europe since the 1800s, infesting croplands and causing severe allergic reactions. Recently, the ragweed leaf beetle Ophraella communa was found in Italy and Switzerland; considering that it feeds primarily on A. artemisiifolia in its invaded ranges, some projects started biological control of this invasive plant through the adventive beetle. In this context of a 'double' invasion, we assessed the influence of climate change on the spread of these alien species through ecological niche modelling. Considering that A. artemisiifolia mainly lives in agricultural and urbanized areas, we refined the models using satellite remote-sensing data; we also assessed the co-occurrence of the two species in these patches. A. artemisiifolia is predicted to expand more than O. communa in the future, with the medium and high classes of suitability of the former increasing more than the latter, resulting in lower efficacy for O. communa to potentially control A. artemisiifolia in agricultural and urbanized patches. Although a future assessment was performed through the 2018 land-cover data, the predictions we propose are intended to be a starting point for future assessments, considering that the possibility of a shrinkage of target patches is unlikely to occur.

Phylogeography and species distribution modelling of Cryptocephalusbarii (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae): is this alpine endemic species close to extinction?

The alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the Quaternary period contributed in shaping the current species distribution. Cold-adapted organisms experienced range expansion and contraction in response to the temperature decrease and increase, respectively. In this study, a fragment of the mitochondrial marker COI was used to investigate the phylogeography of Cryptocephalusbarii, a cold-adapted alpine leaf beetle species endemic of Orobie Alps, northern Italy. The relationships among populations, their divergence time, and the most probable migration model were estimated and are discussed in light of the Pleistocene climate oscillations. Through a species distribution modelling analysis, the current habitat suitability was assessed and the distribution in a future global warming scenario predicted. The main divergence events that led to the actual population structure took place from ~750,000 to ~150,000 years ago, almost following the pattern of the climate oscillations that led to the increase of the connections between the populations during cold periods and the isolation on massifs in warm periods. The most supported migration model suggests that the species survived to past adverse climatic conditions within refugia inside and at the limit of the actual range. The species distribution modelling analysis showed that C.barii is extremely sensitive to air temperature variations, thus the increase of temperature caused by global warming will reduce the suitable areas within the species range, leading to its possible extinction in the next 50 years. Cryptocephalusbarii is a representative case of how cold adapted and limited distributed species have been and could be affected by climate change, that highlights the implementation of conservation actions.

Revision of the Afrotropical flea beetle subgenus Blepharidina s. str. Bechyné (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae).

A taxonomic revision of the species attributed to the flea beetle subgenus Blepharidina s. str. Bechyné, 1968 from sub-Saharan Africa is provided. The subgenus comprises 20 species, including the following six new species here described: B. aliquantula sp. nov. from Somalia, B. himba sp. nov. from Namibia, B. kasigauensis sp. nov., B. kenyana sp. nov., B. regalini sp. nov. from Kenya, and B. matabelelandensis sp. nov. from Zimbabwe. A key to all the species is given, with photos of their habitus, aedeagus, spermatheca, and main external diagnostic characters. Taxonomic notes, with considerations on similarities and affinities, and ecological data on the habitat preference for each species, are also reported.

Evidences for a shared history for spectacled salamanders, haplotypes and climate.

The so-called glacial refugia, formed during the Pleistocene climatic oscillations, played a major role in shaping the distribution of European species, triggering migrations or isolating populations. Many of these events were recently investigated by genetic data, mainly for the European Last Glacial stage, in the Iberic, Italian and Greek-Balkan peninsulas. The amphibian genus Salamandrina, the most ancient living salamandrid lineage, was widespread in Europe until the climatic oscillations of Miocene probably forced it to shelter in the only suitable territory at that time, the Apennines. Nowadays this genus is endemic of peninsular Italy with two parapatric species, S. perspicillata and S. terdigitata, sharing an area of secondary contact formed after the Last Glacial Maximum. Climate is generally identified as the key factor for the interpretation of genetic data. In this research, we directly measure climate influences on the two Salamandrina known species through Ensemble Modelling techniques and post-modelling GIS analyses, integrating updated genetic data in this process. Our results confirm the hypotheses of southwards (and subsequent northwards) shifts, identify glacial refugia and corridors used for the post-glacial re-colonization. Finally, we map a contact zone deserving more sampling effort to disentangle the introgression and hybridization observed.

Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean.

The pond turtle Emys trinacris is an endangered endemic species of Sicily showing a fragmented distribution throughout the main island. In this study, we applied "Ensemble Niche Modelling", combining more classical statistical techniques as Generalized Linear Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with machine-learning approaches as Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, to model the potential distribution of the species under current and future climatic conditions. Moreover, a "gap analysis" performed on both the species' presence sites and the predictions from the Ensemble Models is proposed to integrate outputs from these models, in order to assess the conservation status of this threatened species in the context of biodiversity management. For this aim, four "Representative Concentration Pathways", corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissions trajectories were considered to project the obtained models to both 2050 and 2070. Areas lost, gained or remaining stable for the target species in the projected models were calculated. E. trinacris' potential distribution resulted to be significantly dependent upon precipitation-linked variables, mainly precipitation of wettest and coldest quarter. Future negative effects for the conservation of this species, because of more unstable precipitation patterns and extreme meteorological events, emerged from our analyses. Further, the sites currently inhabited by E. trinacris are, for more than a half, out of the Protected Areas network, highlighting an inadequate management of the species by the authorities responsible for its protection. Our results, therefore, suggest that in the next future the Sicilian pond turtle will need the utmost attention by the scientific community to avoid the imminent risk of extinction. Finally, the gap analysis performed in GIS environment resulted to be a very informative post-modeling technique, potentially applicable to the management of species at risk and to Protected Areas' planning in many contexts.

Unraveling climate influences on the distribution of the parapatric newts Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis and L. italicus.

BACKGROUND: Climate is often considered as a key ecological factor limiting the capability of expansion of most species and the extent of suitable habitats. In this contribution, we implement Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to study two parapatric amphibians, Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis and L. italicus, investigating if and how climate has influenced their present and past (Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene) distributions. A database of 901 GPS presence records was generated for the two newts. SDMs were built through Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, using the Worldclim bioclimatic variables as predictors. RESULTS: Precipitation-linked variables and the temperature annual range strongly influence the current occurrence patterns of the two Lissotriton species analyzed. The two newts show opposite responses to the most contributing variables, such as BIO7 (temperature annual range), BIO12 (annual precipitation), BIO17 (precipitation of the driest quarter) and BIO19 (precipitation of the coldest quarter). The hypothesis of climate influencing the distributions of these species is also supported by the fact that the co-occurrences within the sympatric area fall in localities characterized by intermediate values of these predictors. Projections to the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene scenarios provided a coherent representation of climate influences on the past distributions of the target species. Computation of pairwise variables interactions and the discriminant analysis allowed a deeper interpretation of SDMs' outputs. Further, we propose a multivariate environmental dissimilarity index (MEDI), derived through a transformation of the multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS), to deal with extrapolation-linked uncertainties in model projections to past climate. Finally, the niche equivalency and niche similarity tests confirmed the link between SDMs outputs and actual differences in the ecological niches of the two species. CONCLUSIONS: The different responses of the two species to climatic factors have significantly contributed to shape their current distribution, through contractions, expansions and shifts over time, allowing to maintain two wide allopatric areas with an area of sympatry in Central Italy. Moreover, our SDMs hindcasting shows many concordances with previous phylogeographic studies carried out on the same species, thus corroborating the scenarios of potential distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene emerging from the models obtained.

Comparing pseudo-absences generation techniques in Boosted Regression Trees models for conservation purposes: A case study on amphibians in a protected area.

Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) is one of the modelling techniques most recently applied to biodiversity conservation and it can be implemented with presence-only data through the generation of artificial absences (pseudo-absences). In this paper, three pseudo-absences generation techniques are compared, namely the generation of pseudo-absences within target-group background (TGB), testing both the weighted (WTGB) and unweighted (UTGB) scheme, and the generation at random (RDM), evaluating their performance and applicability in distribution modelling and species conservation. The choice of the target group fell on amphibians, because of their rapid decline worldwide and the frequent lack of guidelines for conservation strategies and regional-scale planning, which instead could be provided through an appropriate implementation of SDMs. Bufo bufo, Salamandrina perspicillata and Triturus carnifex were considered as target species, in order to perform our analysis with species having different ecological and distributional characteristics. The study area is the "Gran Sasso-Monti della Laga" National Park, which hosts 15 Natura 2000 sites and represents one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Our results show that the model calibration ameliorates when using the target-group based pseudo-absences compared to the random ones, especially when applying the WTGB. Contrarily, model discrimination did not significantly vary in a consistent way among the three approaches with respect to the tree target species. Both WTGB and RDM clearly isolate the highly contributing variables, supplying many relevant indications for species conservation actions. Moreover, the assessment of pairwise variable interactions and their three-dimensional visualization further increase the amount of useful information for protected areas' managers. Finally, we suggest the use of RDM as an admissible alternative when it is not possible to individuate a suitable set of species as a representative target-group from which the pseudo-absences can be generated.