Spatio-temporal characterization of phenotypic resistance in malaria vector species.

BACKGROUND: Malaria, a deadly disease caused by Plasmodium protozoa parasite and transmitted through bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a significant public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. Efforts to eliminate malaria have increasingly focused on vector control using insecticides. However, the emergence of insecticide resistance (IR) in malaria vectors pose a formidable obstacle, and the current IR mapping models remain static, relying on fixed coefficients. This study introduces a dynamic spatio-temporal approach to characterize phenotypic resistance in Anopheles gambiae complex and Anopheles arabiensis. We developed a cellular automata (CA) model and applied it to data collected from Ethiopia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Burkina Faso. The data encompasses georeferenced records detailing IR levels in mosquito vector populations across various classes of insecticides. In characterizing the dynamic patterns of confirmed resistance, we identified key driving factors through correlation analysis, chi-square tests, and extensive literature review. RESULTS: The CA model demonstrated robustness in capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of confirmed IR states in the vector populations. In our model, the key driving factors included insecticide usage, agricultural activities, human population density, Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) characteristics, and environmental variables. CONCLUSIONS: The CA model developed offers a robust tool for countries that have limited data on confirmed IR in malaria vectors. The embrace of a dynamical modeling approach and accounting for evolving conditions and influences, contribute to deeper understanding of IR dynamics, and can inform effective strategies for malaria vector control, and prevention in regions facing this critical health challenge.

Insights and challenges of insecticide resistance modelling in malaria vectors: a review.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is one of the most devastating tropical diseases, resulting in loss of lives each year, especially in children under the age of 5 years. Malaria burden, related deaths and stall in the progress against malaria transmission is evident, particularly in countries that have moderate or high malaria transmission. Hence, mitigating malaria spread requires information on the distribution of vectors and the drivers of insecticide resistance (IR). However, owing to the impracticality in establishing the critical need for real-world information at every location, modelling provides an informed best guess for such information. Therefore, this review examines the various methodologies used to model spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal patterns of IR within populations of malaria vectors, incorporating pest-biology parameters, adopted ecological principles, and the associated modelling challenges. METHODS: The review focused on the period ending March 2023 without imposing restrictions on the initial year of publication, and included articles sourced from PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. It was also limited to publications that deal with modelling of IR distribution across spatial and temporal dimensions and excluded articles solely focusing on insecticide susceptibility tests or articles not published in English. After rigorous selection, 33 articles met the review's elibility criteria and were subjected to full-text screening. RESULTS: Results show the popularity of Bayesian geostatistical approaches, and logistic and static models, with limited adoption of dynamic modelling approaches for spatial and temporal IR modelling. Furthermore, our review identifies the availability of surveillance data and scarcity of comprehensive information on the potential drivers of IR as major impediments to developing holistic models of IR evolution. CONCLUSIONS: The review notes that incorporating pest-biology parameters, and ecological principles into IR models, in tandem with fundamental ecological concepts, potentially offers crucial insights into the evolution of IR. The results extend our knowledge of IR models that provide potentially accurate results, which can be translated into policy recommendations to combat the challenge of IR in malaria control.

Leveraging machine learning tools and algorithms for analysis of fruit fly morphometrics.

Analysis of landmark-based morphometric measurements taken on body parts of insects have been a useful taxonomic approach alongside DNA barcoding in insect identification. Statistical analysis of morphometrics have largely been dominated by traditional methods and approaches such as principal component analysis (PCA), canonical variate analysis (CVA) and discriminant analysis (DA). However, advancement in computing power creates a paradigm shift to apply modern tools such as machine learning. Herein, we assess the predictive performance of four machine learning classifiers; K-nearest neighbor (KNN), random forest (RF), support vector machine (the linear, polynomial and radial kernel SVMs) and artificial neural network (ANNs) on fruit fly morphometrics that were previously analysed using PCA and CVA. KNN and RF performed poorly with overall model accuracy lower than "no-information rate" (NIR) (p value > 0.1). The SVM models had a predictive accuracy of > 95%, significantly higher than NIR (p < 0.001), Kappa > 0.78 and area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics was > 0.91; while ANN model had a predictive accuracy of 96%, significantly higher than NIR, Kappa of 0.83 and AUC was 0.98. Wing veins 2, 3, 8, 10, 14 and tibia length were of higher importance than other variables based on both SVM and ANN models. We conclude that SVM and ANN models could be used to discriminate fruit fly species based on wing vein and tibia length measurements or any other morphologically similar pest taxa. These algorithms could be used as candidates for developing an integrated and smart application software for insect discrimination and identification. Variable importance analysis results in this study would be useful for future studies for deciding what must be measured.