Impact of climate change on climate extreme indices in Kaduna River basin, Nigeria.

This study examined the impact of climate change on climate extreme indices in the Kaduna River basin, Nigeria. Large-scale atmospheric variables derived from the Global Climate Model (GCM), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (CanESM2) were used to develop a high-resolution climate using a Statistical Down Scaling Model. The adapted Caussinus-Mestre algorithm for homogenizing networks of temperature series and multivariate bias correction based on an N-dimension probability function were used to homogenize and correct the climate data, respectively. Fifteen climate extreme indices were computed using RClimdex. The coefficient of variance, Kruskal-Wallis test, and the modified Mann-Kendall test were used to assess the variation and trends. Wavelet analysis was used to determine the periodicities of the indices (1980-2020). The findings revealed a significant warming trend with low variability of temperature indices. The moderate variability with an insignificant decreasing trend was found for rainfall indices. Similarly, the future climate indices indicate a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices. The majority of climate indices have a periodicity of less than or equal to 10 years for high frequency, except for PRCPTOT, R10MM, R20MM, Rx5day, SDII, TN90p, and TX90p for temperature indices. The findings conclude that the periodicity pattern of climate extreme indices is related to atmospheric phenomena (such as quasi-biennial oscillation, QBO), which indicate the impact of climate change. As a result, this can serve as an early warning for possible extreme event occurrences in the basin. The CMIP6 should be used to compare with the results of this study to provide a detailed assessment of the current implication of climate change on the catchment.

Modelling PIP4K2A inhibitory activity of 1,7-naphthyridine analogues using machine learning and molecular docking studies.

PIP4K2A is a type II lipid kinase that catalyzed the rate-limiting step of the conversion of phosphatidylinositol-5-phosphate (PI5P) into phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate (PI4,5P2). PIP4K2A has been intricately linked to the inhibition of various types of tumors via reactive oxygen species-mediated apoptosis, making it an important therapeutic target. In the quest of finding biologically active substances with efficient PIP4K2A inhibitory activity, machine learning algorithms were used to investigate the quantitative relationship between structures and inhibitory activities of 1,7-naphthyridine analogues. Three machine learning algorithms (MLR, ANN, and SVM) were used to develop QSAR models that can effectively predict the PIP4K2A inhibitory activity of a library of 1,7-naphthyridine analogues. The cascaded feature selection method was performed by sequential application of GFA and MP5 algorithms to identify a molecular descriptor subset that can best describe the PIP4K2A inhibitory activity of 1,7-naphthyridine analogues. PIP4K2A inhibitory activities predicted by the ML models were strongly correlated with the experimental values. The QSAR Modelling indicates that the best-performing ML model was SVM with the RBF kernel function. The SVM model performed very well in predicting PIP4K2A inhibitory activity of the 1,7-naphthyridine analogues with RTR and QEX values of 0.9845 and 0.8793 respectively. To further gain more structural insight into the origin of PIP4K2A inhibitory activity of 1,7-naphthyridine analogues, molecular docking studies were performed. The results indicate that five compounds; 15, 25, 13, 09, and 28 were found to have a high binding affinity with the receptor molecules. Hydrogen bonding, pi-pi interaction, and pi-cation interactions were found to modulate the binding interaction of the inhibitors. Although the SVM gives essentially a black-box model which cannot be readily interpreted, using SVM in tandem with MLR and ANN provides a unique perspective in building robust QSAR predictive models. The superior predictive performance of the ML models and the explanatory power of MLR models were combined to provide a unique insight into the structure-activity relationship of 1,7-naphthyridine inhibitors. This is relevant in that it provides information that can be invaluable as guidelines for the design of novel PIP4K2A inhibitors.

Distinct early cellular kinetics in participants protected against colonization upon Bordetella pertussis challenge.

BACKGROUNDTo date, only limited data are available on the mechanisms of protection against colonization with Bordetella pertussis in humans.METHODSIn this study, the cellular responses to B. pertussis challenge were monitored longitudinally using high-dimensional EuroFlow-based flow cytometry, allowing quantitative detection of more than 250 different immune cell subsets in the blood of 15 healthy donors.RESULTSParticipants who were protected against colonization showed different early cellular responses compared with colonized participants. Especially prominent for colonization-protected participants were the early expansion of CD36- nonclassical monocytes on day 1 (D1), natural killer cells (D3), follicular T helper cells (D1-D3), and plasma cells (D3). Plasma cell expansion on D3 correlated negatively with the CFU load on D7 and D9 after challenge. Increased plasma cell maturation on D11-D14 was found in participants with seroconversion.CONCLUSIONThese early cellular immune responses following experimental infection can now be further characterized and potentially linked to an efficient mucosal immune response, preventing colonization. Ultimately, their presence may be used to evaluate whether new B. pertussis vaccine candidates are protective against B. pertussis colonization, e.g., by bacterial challenge after vaccination.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT03751514.FUNDINGInnovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking and the EuroFlow Consortium.

Effect of colonisation with Neisseria lactamica on cross-reactive anti-meningococcal B-cell responses: a randomised, controlled, human infection trial.

BACKGROUND: Pharyngeal colonisation by the commensal bacterium Neisseria lactamica inhibits colonisation by Neisseria meningitidis and has an inverse epidemiological association with meningococcal disease. The mechanisms that underpin this relationship are unclear, but could involve the induction of cross-reactive immunity. In this study, we aimed to evaluate whether colonisation with N lactamica induces N lactamica-specific B-cell responses that are cross-reactive with N meningitidis. METHODS: In this randomised, placebo-controlled, human infection trial at University Hospital Southampton Clinical Research Facility (Southampton, UK), healthy adults aged 18-45 years were randomly assigned (2:1) to receive intranasal inoculation with either 105 colony-forming units of N lactamica in 1 mL phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) or 1 mL PBS alone. Participants and researchers conducting participant sampling and immunological assays were masked to allocation. The primary endpoint was the frequency of circulating N lactamica-specific plasma cells and memory B cells after N lactamica inoculation (day 7-28) compared with baseline values (day 0), measured using enzyme-linked immunospot assays. The secondary endpoint was to measure the frequency of N meningitidis-specific B cells. In a second study, we measured the effect of duration of N lactamica colonisation on seroconversion by terminating carriage at either 4 days or 14 days with single-dose oral ciprofloxacin. The studies are now closed to participants. The trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03633474 and NCT03549325. FINDINGS: Of 50 participants assessed for eligibility between Sept 5, 2018, and March 3, 2019, 31 were randomly assigned (n=20 N lactamica, n=11 PBS). Among the 17 participants who were colonised with N lactamica, the median baselines compared with peak post-colonisation N lactamica-specific plasma-cell frequencies (per 105 peripheral blood mononuclear cells) were 0·0 (IQR 0·0-0·0) versus 5·0 (1·5-10·5) for IgA-secreting plasma cells (p<0·0001), and 0·0 (0·0-0·0) versus 3·0 (1·5-9·5) for IgG-secreting plasma cells (p<0·0001). Median N lactamica-specific IgG memory-B-cell frequencies (percentage of total IgG memory B cells) increased from 0·0024% (0·0000-0·0097) at baseline to 0·0384% (0·0275-0·0649) at day 28 (p<0·0001). The frequency of N meningitidis-specific IgA-secreting and IgG-secreting plasma cells and memory B cells also increased signficantly in participants who were colonised with N lactamica. Upper respiratory tract symptoms were reported in ten (50%) of 20 participants who were inoculated with N lactamica and six (55%) of 11 participants who were inoculated with PBS (p>0·99). Three additional adverse events (two in the N lactamica group and one in the PBS group) and no serious adverse events were reported. In the second study, anti-N lactamica and anti-N meningitidis serum IgG titres increased only in participants who were colonised with N lactamica for 14 days. INTERPRETATION: Natural immunity to N meningitidis after colonisation with N lactamica might be due to cross-reactive adaptive responses. Exploitation of this microbial mechanism with a genetically modified live vector could protect against N meningitidis colonisation and disease. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, and NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre.

A recombinant commensal bacteria elicits heterologous antigen-specific immune responses during pharyngeal carriage.

The human nasopharynx contains a stable microbial ecosystem of commensal and potentially pathogenic bacteria, which can elicit protective primary and secondary immune responses. Experimental intranasal infection of human adults with the commensal Neisseria lactamica produced safe, sustained pharyngeal colonization. This has potential utility as a vehicle for sustained release of antigen to the human mucosa, but commensals in general are thought to be immunologically tolerated. Here, we show that engineered N. lactamica, chromosomally transformed to express a heterologous vaccine antigen, safely induces systemic, antigen-specific immune responses during carriage in humans. When the N. lactamica expressing the meningococcal antigen Neisseria Adhesin A (NadA) was inoculated intranasally into human volunteers, all colonized participants carried the bacteria asymptomatically for at least 28 days, with most (86%) still carrying the bacteria at 90 days. Compared to an otherwise isogenic but phenotypically wild-type strain, colonization with NadA-expressing N. lactamica generated NadA-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG)- and IgA-secreting plasma cells within 14 days of colonization and NadA-specific IgG memory B cells within 28 days of colonization. NadA-specific IgG memory B cells were detected in peripheral blood of colonized participants for at least 90 days. Over the same period, there was seroconversion against NadA and generation of serum bactericidal antibody activity against a NadA-expressing meningococcus. The controlled infection was safe, and there was no transmission to adult bedroom sharers during the 90-day period. Genetically modified N. lactamica could therefore be used to generate beneficial immune responses to heterologous antigens during sustained pharyngeal carriage.

A qPCR assay for Bordetella pertussis cells that enumerates both live and dead bacteria.

Bordetella pertussis is the causative agent of whooping cough, commonly referred to as pertussis. Although the incidence of pertussis was reduced through vaccination, during the last thirty years it has returned to high levels in a number of countries. This resurgence has been linked to the switch from the use of whole-cell to acellular vaccines. Protection afforded by acellular vaccines appears to be short-lived compared to that afforded by whole cell vaccines. In order to inform future vaccine improvement by identifying immune correlates of protection, a human challenge model of B. pertussis colonisation has been developed. Accurate measurement of colonisation status in this model has required development of a qPCR-based assay to enumerate B. pertussis in samples that distinguishes between viable and dead bacteria. Here we report the development of this assay and its performance in the quantification of B. pertussis from human challenge model samples. This assay has future utility in diagnostic labs and in research where a quantitative measure of both B. pertussis number and viability is required.

Controlled Human Infection With Bordetella pertussis Induces Asymptomatic, Immunizing Colonization.

BACKGROUND: Bordetella pertussis is among the leading causes of vaccine-preventable deaths and morbidity globally. Human asymptomatic carriage as a reservoir for community transmission of infections might be a target of future vaccine strategies, but has not been demonstrated. Our objective was to demonstrate that asymptomatic nasopharyngeal carriage of Bordetella pertussis is inducible in humans and to define the microbiological and immunological features of presymptomatic infection. METHODS: Healthy subjects aged 18-45 years with an antipertussis toxin immunoglobin G (IgG) concentration of <20 international units/ml were inoculated intranasally with nonattenuated, wild-type Bordetella pertussis strain B1917. Safety, colonization, and shedding were monitored over 17 days in an inpatient facility. Colonization was assessed by culture and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Azithromycin was administered from Day 14. The inoculum dose was escalated, aiming to colonize at least 70% of participants. Immunological responses were measured. RESULTS: There were 34 participants challenged, in groups of 4 or 5. The dose was gradually escalated from 103 colony-forming units (0% colonized) to 105 colony-forming units (80% colonized). Minor symptoms were reported in a minority of participants. Azithromycin eradicated colonization in 48 hours in 88% of colonized individuals. Antipertussis toxin IgG seroconversion occurred in 9 out of 19 colonized participants and in none of the participants who were not colonized. Nasal wash was a more sensitive method to detect colonization than pernasal swabs. No shedding of Bordetella pertussis was detected in systematically collected environmental samples. CONCLUSIONS: Bordetella pertussis colonization can be deliberately induced and leads to a systemic immune response without causing pertussis symptoms. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03751514.

Protocol for a controlled human infection with genetically modified Neisseria lactamica expressing the meningococcal vaccine antigen NadA: a potent new technique for experimental medicine.

INTRODUCTION: Neisseria lactamica is a commensal organism found in the human nasopharynx and is closely related to the pathogen N. meningitidis (meningococcus). Carriage of N. lactamica is associated with reduced meningococcal carriage and disease. We summarise an ethically approved protocol for an experimental human challenge study using a genetically modified strain of N. lactamica that expresses the meningococcal antigen NadA. We aim to develop a model to study the role of specific bacterial antigens in nasopharyngeal carriage and immunity, to evaluate vaccines for their efficacy in preventing colonisation and to provide a proof of principle for the development of bacterial medicines. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Healthy adult volunteers aged 18-45 years will receive an intranasal inoculation of either the NadA containing strain of N. lactamica or a genetically modified, but wild-type equivalent control strain. These challenge volunteers will be admitted for 4.5 days observation following inoculation and will then be discharged with strict infection control rules. Bedroom contacts of the challenge volunteers will also be enrolled as contact volunteers. Safety, colonisation, shedding, transmission and immunogenicity will be assessed over 90 days after which carriage will be terminated with antibiotic eradication therapy. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and South Central Oxford A Research Ethics Committee (reference: 18/SC/0133). Findings will be published in peer-reviewed open-access journals as soon as possible. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03630250; Pre-results.