Factors associated with hospitalization for seasonal influenza in Morocco.

Background: Morocco is actively working towards expanding its influenza vaccine policy to cover high-risk groups, as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Aims: We assessed the risk factors for influenza-associated hospitalization for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) that occurred during the last 5 seasons. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, analytical study among patients recruited in the ambulatory and hospital sites of the influenza sentinel surveillance system in Morocco between 2014 and 2019. Using multiple logistic regression, we compared the characteristics of influenza-positive patients with SARI to those with influenza-like illness (ILI) to identify factors associated with severe disease. Results: We included 1323 positive influenza patients with either SARI (41.7%) or ILI diagnosis (58.3%). A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and influenza B, respectively, contributed 49.2%, 29.5% and 20.6% of the cases. The main risk factors considered in the bivariate analysis were found in the multivariate analysis to be significantly associated with influenza-related hospitalization (SARI): age < 2 years (aOR = 7.08, P < 0.001); age ≥ 65 years (aOR = 3.59, P < 0.001); diabetes (aOR = 1.98, P = 0.017); obesity (aOR = 2.94, P = 0.034); asthma or chronic respiratory disease (aOR = 4.99, P < 0.001); chronic renal failure (aOR = 4.74, P = 0.005); pregnancy (aOR = 7.49, P < 0.001); and the A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype (aOR = 1.82, P < 0.001). Conclusion: This study provides epidemiological evidence for the expected benefit of an influenza vaccination strategy for high-risk groups as recommended by the WHO.

Influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infections among children under five years old in Morocco, September 2017 to March 2019.

The main aim of this research is to investigate the trend of influenza infection among children under 5 years with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) as well as those who suffer from a high burden of disease. This research is based on a survey conducted from September 2017 to March 2019. During this period nasopharyngeal swabs were collected in a group of 942 children under 5 years with SARI, admitted in pediatric services of 8 sentinel hospitals. The virological surveillance of influenza was carried out at the National influenza Center, located in the National Institute of Hygiene, using a Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRt-PCR) monoplex assay developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC; Atlanta, GA). The median age of participants was 11 months, and 40% of them were female. A total of 112 samples were reported positive yielding a frequency of 11.88% (112/942). Among all the influenza confirmed cases, 68.75% (77/112), 15.17% (17/112), 16.04% (18/112) were subtyped as influenza AH1N1pdm09, AH3N2 and influenza B respectively. Meanwhile, the proportion of patients admitted at the intensive care unit was 5,35% (6/112). Out of which 83.33% (5/6) were AH1N1pdm09 and it was reported that just 1.78% (2/112) of the positive cases were vaccinated. The study confirms that influenza affects greatly children with SARI. Thus, the need for influenza vaccines is highly recommended for children under 5 years. Moreover, our findings highlight that influenza virus is not the only cause of SARI among this group of children. Accordingly, special attention should be paid to the non-flu respiratory viruses.

Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco.

BACKGROUND: Several statistical methods of variable complexity have been developed to establish thresholds for influenza activity that may be used to inform public health guidance. We compared the results of two methods and explored how they worked to characterize the 2018 influenza season performance-2018 season. METHODS: Historical data from the 2005/2006 to 2016/2018 influenza season performance seasons were provided by a network of 412 primary health centers in charge of influenza like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance. We used the WHO averages and the moving epidemic method (MEM) to evaluate the proportion of ILI visits among all outpatient consultations (ILI%) as a proxy for influenza activity. We also used the MEM method to evaluate three seasons of composite data (ILI% multiplied by percent of ILI with laboratory-confirmed influenza) as recommended by WHO. RESULTS: The WHO method estimated the seasonal ILI% threshold at 0.9%. The annual epidemic period began on average at week 46 and lasted an average of 18 weeks. The MEM model estimated the epidemic threshold (corresponding to the WHO seasonal threshold) at 1.5% of ILI visits among all outpatient consultations. The annual epidemic period began on week 49 and lasted on average 14 weeks. Intensity thresholds were similar using both methods. When using the composite measure, the MEM method showed a clearer estimate of the beginning of the influenza epidemic, which was coincident with a sharp increase in confirmed ILI cases. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the threshold methodology presented in the WHO manual is simple to implement and easy to adopt for use by the Moroccan influenza surveillance system. The MEM method is more statistically sophisticated and may allow a better detection of the start of seasonal epidemics. Incorporation of virologic data into the composite parameter as recommended by WHO has the potential to increase the accuracy of seasonal threshold estimation.

2009 Pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 in Morocco, 2009-2010: epidemiology, transmissibility, and factors associated with fatal cases.

BACKGROUND: Following the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) in the United States and Mexico in April 2009, A(H1N1)pdm09 spread rapidly all over the world. There is a dearth of information about the epidemiology of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Africa, including Morocco. We describe the epidemiologic characteristics of the A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in Morocco during 2009-2010, including transmissibility and risk factors associated with fatal disease. METHODS: We implemented influenza surveillance for patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) at 136 private and public clinics for patients with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) at 16 regional public hospitals from June 2009 through February 2010. Respiratory samples and structured questionnaires were collected from all enrolled patients, and samples were tested by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction for influenza viruses. We estimated the risk factors associated with fatal disease as well as the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and the serial interval of the pandemic virus. RESULTS: From June 2009 through February 2010, we obtained 3937 specimens, of which 1452 tested positive for influenza virus. Of these, 1398 (96%) were A(H1N1)pdm09. Forty percent of specimens from ILI cases (1056 of 2646) and 27% from SARI cases (342 of 1291) were positive for A(H1N1)pdm09. Sixty-four deaths occurred among laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 SARI cases. Among these cases, those who had hypertension (age-adjusted odd ratio [aOR], 28.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-398.7), had neurological disorders (aOR, 7.5; 95% CI, 1.5-36.4), or were obese (aOR, 7.1; 95% CI, 1.6-31.1), as well as women of gestational age who were pregnant (aOR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1-5.6), were at increased risk of death. Across the country, elevated numbers of locally acquired infections were detected 4 months after the detection of the first laboratory-confirmed case and coincided with the expected influenza season (October-January) in Morocco. We obtained an R(0) estimate of 1.44 (95% CI, 1.32-1.56) and a mean serial interval (±SD) of 2.3 ± 1.4 days (95% CI, 1.6-3.0). CONCLUSION: Widespread but delayed community transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred in Morocco in 2009, and A(H1N1)pdm09 became the dominant influenza virus subtype during the 2009-2010 influenza season. The transmissibility characteristics were similar to those observed in other countries.

Influenza surveillance among outpatients and inpatients in Morocco, 1996-2009.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information about the epidemiology of influenza in Africa. We describe the epidemiology and seasonality of influenza in Morocco from 1996 to 2009 with particular emphasis on the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 influenza seasons. Successes and challenges of the enhanced surveillance system introduced in 2007 are also discussed. METHODS: Virologic sentinel surveillance for influenza virus was initiated in Morocco in 1996 using a network of private practitioners that collected oro-pharyngeal and naso-pharyngeal swabs from outpatients presenting with influenza-like-illness (ILI). The surveillance network expanded over the years to include inpatients presenting with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) at hospitals and syndromic surveillance for ILI and acute respiratory infection (ARI). Respiratory samples and structured questionnaires were collected from eligible patients, and samples were tested by immunofluorescence assays and by viral isolation for influenza viruses. RESULTS: We obtained a total of 6465 respiratory specimens during 1996 to 2009, of which, 3102 were collected during 2007-2009. Of those, 2249 (72%) were from patients with ILI, and 853 (27%) were from patients with SARI. Among the 3,102 patients, 98 (3%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza, of whom, 85 (87%) had ILI and 13 (13%) had SARI. Among ILI patients, the highest proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza occurred in children less than 5 years of age (3/169; 2% during 2007-2008 and 23/271; 9% during 2008-2009) and patients 25-59 years of age (8/440; 2% during 2007-2009 and 21/483; 4% during 2008-2009). All SARI patients with influenza were less than 14 years of age. During all surveillance years, influenza virus circulation was seasonal with peak circulation during the winter months of October through April. CONCLUSION: Influenza results in both mild and severe respiratory infections in Morocco, and accounted for a large proportion of all hospitalizations for severe respiratory illness among children 5 years of age and younger.