ABSTRACT
The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident caused a radioactive contamination of deposited radionuclides, including 137Cs, on the land surface. Cesium-137 deposited on the land surface was strongly adsorbed on soil particles and was then washed off through soil erosion. Trends of temporal variation of 137Cs wash-off varied greatly depending on land use. Therefore, it is important to reflect the characteristics of 137Cs migration processes in each land use to clarify the long-term fate of 137Cs. In this study, a 30-year simulation of environmental fate of 137Cs was conducted using a distributed radiocesium prediction model, taking into account the characteristics of the 137Cs behavior in each land use. Overall, in the Abukuma River basin, the 137Cs transported into the ocean for 30 years was estimated to correspond to 4.6 % of the initial deposition in the basin, and the effective half-life of 137Cs deposited in the basin was estimated to be 3.7 years shorter (by 11.6 %) than its physical half-life. These results suggested that 137Cs deposited from the accident could still remain for decades. Based on the analysis of the 137Cs behavior in land use, in 2011, the contribution of 137Cs export to the ocean from urban lands was estimated to correspond to 70 % of the total 137Cs export. Meanwhile, from 2012 to 2040, the contribution of 137Cs export from agricultural lands was estimated to correspond to 75 % of the total 137Cs export. The reduction ratios excluding radioactive decay of 137Cs remained in areas with and without human activities for 30 years after the accident, defined as the ratios of the total outflow to the initial deposition, were estimated to be 11.5 %-17.7 % and 0.4 %-1.4 %, respectively. These results suggested that human activities enhance the reduction of 137Cs remaining in land in the past and future.
ABSTRACT
The Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in March 2011 resulted in the deposition of significant quantities of radionuclides, including radiocesium (137Cs), over a wide area. Most of the deposited 137Cs is strongly adsorbed on fine soil particles such as clay and silt near the ground surface. Therefore, to estimate the environmental fate of 137Cs, it is necessary to predict its transport with eroded sediment in rainfall-runoff processes. In this study, a distributed radiocesium prediction model was applied to simulations of 137Cs transport associated with hydrological processes in the Abukuma River Basin, the largest river system in Fukushima, over the period of 2011-2012. The soil erosion potential, which is a key input to the distributed radiocesium prediction model, was estimated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). This study focused on the uncertainty in estimating the environmental fate of 137Cs associated with the USLE factors. The USLE has five physically meaningful factors: the rainfall and runoff factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), topographic factor (LS), cover and management factor (C), and support practice factor (P). Because the USLE factors were determined using various methods, R, LS, and the product of C and P (C×P) were divided into two, three, and five cases, respectively, based on previous studies. Therefore, we conducted 30 different simulations. The average total 137Cs outflow during the computational period in the simulation cases using the same USLE factors was 13.3 and 11.7 TBq for R (two cases), 12.6, 13.9 and 10.9 TBq for LS (three cases), and 26.5, 8.64, 0.47, 22.8 and 4.03 TBq for C×P (five cases). For the total outflow, C and P had the highest uncertainty of all the USLE factors. The outflow rates of the average total 137Cs in the simulation cases using the same C and P from the croplands and forest areas and from the undisturbed croplands and paddy fields were 62-91% and 18-34%, respectively. These results were due to the high erodibility of the croplands, the large forest areas in grids with high 137Cs deposition density, and the high concentration of 137Cs in the soil of the undisturbed croplands and paddy fields. This study indicates that land use, especially forest areas, croplands, and undisturbed paddy fields, has a significant impact on the environmental fate of 137Cs.
