Pharmacokinetic analysis across studies to drive knowledge-integration: A tutorial on individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA).

Answering challenging questions in drug development sometimes requires pharmacokinetic (PK) data analysis across different studies, for example, to characterize PKs across diverse regions or populations, or to increase statistical power for subpopulations by combining smaller size trials. Given the growing interest in data sharing and advanced computational methods, knowledge integration based on multiple data sources is increasingly applied in the context of model-informed drug discovery and development. A powerful analysis method is the individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA), leveraging systematic review of databases and literature, with the most detailed data type of the individual patient, and quantitative modeling of the PK processes, including capturing heterogeneity of variance between studies. The methodology that should be used in IPDMA in the context of population PK analysis is summarized in this tutorial, highlighting areas of special attention compared to standard PK modeling, including hierarchical nested variability terms for interstudy variability, and handling between-assay differences in limits of quantification within a single analysis. This tutorial is intended for any pharmacological modeler who is interested in performing an integrated analysis of PK data across different studies in a systematic and thorough manner, to answer questions that transcend individual primary studies.

Analysis of Dynamic Efficacy Endpoints of the Nix-TB Trial.

BACKGROUND: Safer, better, and shorter treatments for multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (TB) are an urgent global health need. The phase 3 clinical trial Nix-TB (NCT02333799) tested a 6-month treatment of MDR and XDR-TB consisting of high-dose linezolid, bedaquiline, and pretomanid (BPaL). In this study, we investigate the relationship between the pharmacokinetic characteristics of the drugs, patient characteristics and efficacy endpoints from Nix-TB. METHODS: Pharmacokinetic data were collected at weeks 2, 8, and 16. Efficacy endpoints including treatment outcomes, time to stable culture conversion, and longitudinal time to positivity in the mycobacterial growth indicator tube assay were each characterized using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Relationships between patient, treatment pharmacokinetics, and disease characteristics and efficacy endpoints were evaluated. RESULTS: Data from 93 (85% of the total) participants were analyzed. Higher body mass index was associated with a lower incidence of unfavorable treatment outcomes. Median time to stable culture conversion was 3 months in patients with lower baseline burden compared with 4.5 months in patients with high baseline burden. Participants with minimal disease had steeper time to positivity trajectories compared with participants with high-risk phenotypes. No relationship between any drugs' pharmacokinetics (drug concentration or exposure metrics) and any efficacy outcomes was observed. CONCLUSIONS: We have successfully described efficacy endpoints of a BPaL regimen from the Nix-TB trial. Participants with high-risk phenotypes significantly delayed time to culture conversion and bacterial clearance. The lack of a relationship between pharmacokinetic exposures and pharmacodynamic biomarkers opens the possibility to use lower, safer doses, particularly for toxicity-prone linezolid. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02333799.

Examining nonadherence in the treatment of tuberculosis: The patterns that lead to failure.

AIMS: Adherence has been shown to be a major predictor of tuberculosis treatment failure and relapse. The current adherence metrics can be improved to provide higher resolution of adherence patterns and identify patients in need of alternative treatment interventions. We investigated how adherence patterns affect treatment outcomes, when adherence is likely to decrease during treatment and which patients are at risk of being nonadherent. METHODS: Individual-level data were pooled from 3 clinical trials (n = 3724) for treatment of drug susceptible tuberculosis where monthly or weekly adherence patterns were collected and adherence patterns were quantified to assess the impact of clustered missed doses vs. randomly missed doses on tuberculosis treatment outcomes. Significance was determined through univariate and multivariate cox regression models. RESULTS: Patients who miss doses in clusters have an increased hazard risk for unfavourable outcomes and missing as little as 4 treatment days in 1 month resulted in 61% higher risk of unfavourable outcomes compared to patients who missed no treatment days (P < .01). Patients older than 50 years, and patients who experienced an adverse event were associated with lower adherence. CONCLUSION: Our results show that the pattern in which patients miss their drugs is important to their overall outcomes and missing treatment days in clusters rather than randomly increases the risk of poor outcomes. In the future more intensive and longitudinal adherence measurements will be valuable for clinical trials and regimen design and interpretation.

Proposed Linezolid Dosing Strategies to Minimize Adverse Events for Treatment of Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated Nix-TB trial data (NCT02333799, N = 109) to provide dosing recommendations to potentially minimize linezolid toxicity in patients with extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis. . METHODS: A pharmacokinetic model and toxicodynamic models for peripheral neuropathy, hemoglobin, and platelets were developed. Simulations compared safety outcomes for daily linezolid of 1200 and 600 mg, with and without dose adjustments for toxicity. Severe neuropathy was based on symptom scores from the Brief Peripheral Neuropathy Screen. Severe anemia and thrombocytopenia were defined as ≥ grade 3 adverse events according to the NIAID Division of Microbiology and Infectious Disease Adult Toxicity table. RESULTS: Predicted concentration-time profiles were a major predictor in all toxicodynamic models. Simulations showed higher percentages of patients with severe neuropathy (median, 19%; 90% confidence interval [CI], 17%-22% vs 5%, 4%-7%) and severe anemia (15%, 12%-17% vs 1%, 0%-2%) between 1200 and 600 mg daily linezolid. No differences in severe thrombocytopenia were observed (median, <1% for both daily doses). Generally, neuropathy occurred after 3 to 6 months of treatment and, with protocol-specified management, reversed within 15 months after onset. Simulations indicated that a >10% decrease in hemoglobin level after 4 weeks of treatment would have maximum sensitivity (82%) and specificity (84%) for predicting severe anemia. Reducing the dose from 1200 to 600 mg triggered by this marker may prevent 60% (90% CI, 45%-72%) of severe anemia. CONCLUSIONS: Simple neuropathy symptom and hemoglobin monitoring may guide linezolid dosing to avoid toxicities, but prospective testing is needed to confirm the benefit-to-risk ratio.

Precision-Enhancing Risk Stratification Tools for Selecting Optimal Treatment Durations in Tuberculosis Clinical Trials.

Rationale: No evidence-based tools exist to enhance precision in the selection of patient-specific optimal treatment durations to study in tuberculosis clinical trials. Objectives: To develop risk stratification tools that assign patients with tuberculosis into risk groups of unfavorable outcome and inform selection of optimal treatment duration for each patient strata to study in clinical trials. Methods: Publicly available data from four phase 3 trials, each evaluating treatment duration shortening from 6 to 4 months, were used to develop parametric time-to-event models that describe unfavorable outcomes. Regimen, baseline, and on-treatment characteristics were evaluated as predictors of outcomes. Exact regression coefficients of predictors were used to assign risk groups and predict optimal treatment durations. Measurements and Main Results: The parametric model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72. A six-item risk score (HIV status, smear grade, sex, cavitary disease status, body mass index, and Month 2 culture status) successfully grouped participants into low (1,060/3,791; 28%), moderate (1,740/3,791; 46%), and high (991/3,791; 26%) risk, requiring treatment durations of 4, 6, and greater than 6 months, respectively, to reach a target cure rate of 93% when receiving standard-dose rifamycin-containing regimens. With current one-duration-fits-all approaches, high-risk groups have a 3.7-fold (95% confidence interval, 2.7-5.1) and 2.4-fold (1.9-2.9) higher hazard risk of unfavorable outcomes compared with low- and moderate-risk groups, respectively. Four-month regimens were noninferior to the standard 6-month regimen in the low-risk group. Conclusions: Our model discrimination was modest but consistent with current models of unfavorable outcomes. Our results showed that stratified medicine approaches are feasible and may achieve high cure rates in all patients with tuberculosis. An interactive risk stratification tool is provided to facilitate decision-making in the regimen development pathway.

Publisher Correction: A patient-level pooled analysis of treatment-shortening regimens for drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis.

The version of this article originally published was not open access. This article should have been open access. The error has been fixed, and the article is now open access.

A patient-level pooled analysis of treatment-shortening regimens for drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis.

Tuberculosis kills more people than any other infectious disease. Three pivotal trials testing 4-month regimens failed to meet non-inferiority margins; however, approximately four-fifths of participants were cured. Through a pooled analysis of patient-level data with external validation, we identify populations eligible for 4-month treatment, define phenotypes that are hard to treat and evaluate the impact of adherence and dosing strategy on outcomes. In 3,405 participants included in analyses, baseline smear grade of 3+ relative to <2+, HIV seropositivity and adherence of ≤90% were significant risk factors for unfavorable outcome. Four-month regimens were non-inferior in participants with minimal disease defined by <2+ sputum smear grade or non-cavitary disease. A hard-to-treat phenotype, defined by high smear grades and cavitation, may require durations >6 months to cure all. Regimen duration can be selected in order to improve outcomes, providing a stratified medicine approach as an alternative to the 'one-size-fits-all' treatment currently used worldwide.

Development of a Novel Maternal-Fetal Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model I: Insights into Factors that Determine Fetal Drug Exposure through Simulations and Sensitivity Analyses.

Determining fetal drug exposure (except at the time of birth) is not possible for both logistical and ethical reasons. Therefore, we developed a novel maternal-fetal physiologically based pharmacokinetic (m-f-PBPK) model to predict fetal exposure to drugs and populated this model with gestational age-dependent changes in maternal-fetal physiology. Then, we used this m-f-PBPK to: 1) perform a series of sensitivity analyses to quantitatively demonstrate the impact of fetoplacental metabolism and placental transport on fetal drug exposure for various drug-dosing regimens administered to the mother; 2) predict the impact of gestational age on fetal drug exposure; and 3) demonstrate that a single umbilical venous (UV)/maternal plasma (MP) ratio (even after multiple-dose oral administration to steady state) does not necessarily reflect fetal drug exposure. In addition, we verified the implementation of this m-f-PBPK model by comparing the predicted UV/MP and fetal/MP AUC ratios with those predicted at steady state after an intravenous infusion. Our simulations yielded novel insights into the quantitative contribution of fetoplacental metabolism and/or placental transport on gestational age-dependent fetal drug exposure. Through sensitivity analyses, we demonstrated that the UV/MP ratio does not measure the extent of fetal drug exposure unless obtained at steady state after an intravenous infusion or when there is little or no fluctuation in MP drug concentrations after multiple-dose oral administration. The proposed m-f-PBPK model can be used to predict fetal exposure to drugs across gestational ages and therefore provide the necessary information to assess the risk of drug toxicity to the fetus.