Designing a large-scale track-based monitoring program to detect changes in species distributions in arid Australia.

Monitoring trends in animal populations in arid regions is challenging due to remoteness and low population densities. However, detecting species' tracks or signs is an effective survey technique for monitoring population trends across large spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we developed a simulation framework to evaluate the performance of alternative track-based monitoring designs at detecting change in species distributions in arid Australia. We collated presence-absence records from 550 2-ha track-based plots for 11 vertebrates over 13 years and fitted ensemble species distribution models to predict occupancy in 2018. We simulated plausible changes in species' distributions over the next 15 years and, with estimates of detectability, simulated monitoring to evaluate the statistical power of three alternative monitoring scenarios: (1) where surveys were restricted to existing 2-ha plots, (2) where surveys were optimized to target all species equally, and (3) where surveys were optimized to target two species of conservation concern. Across all monitoring designs and scenarios, we found that power was higher when detecting increasing occupancy trends compared to decreasing trends owing to the relatively low levels of initial occupancy. Our results suggest that surveying 200 of the existing plots annually (with a small subset resurveyed twice within a year) will have at least an 80% chance of detecting 30% declines in occupancy for four of the five invasive species modeled and one of the six native species. This increased to 10 of the 11 species assuming larger (50%) declines. When plots were positioned to target all species equally, power improved slightly for most compared to the existing survey network. When plots were positioned to target two species of conservation concern (crest-tailed mulgara and dusky hopping mouse), power to detect 30% declines increased by 29% and 31% for these species, respectively, at the cost of reduced power for the remaining species. The effect of varying survey frequency depended on its trade-off with the number of sites sampled and requires further consideration. Nonetheless, our research suggests that track-based surveying is an effective and logistically feasible approach to monitoring broad-scale occupancy trends in desert species with both widespread and restricted distributions.

Effects of learning and adaptation on population viability.

Cultural adaptation is one means by which conservationists may help populations adapt to threats. A learned behavior may protect an individual from a threat, and the behavior can be transmitted horizontally (within generations) and vertically (between generations), rapidly conferring population-level protection. Although possible in theory, it remains unclear whether such manipulations work in a conservation setting; what conditions are required for them to work; and how they might affect the evolutionary process. We examined models in which a population can adapt through both genetic and cultural mechanisms. Our work was motivated by the invasion of highly toxic cane toads (Rhinella marina) across northern Australia and the resultant declines of endangered northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus), which attack and are fatally poisoned by the toxic toads. We examined whether a novel management strategy in which wild quolls are trained to avoid toads can reduce extinction probability. We used a simulation model tailored to quoll life history. Within simulations, individuals were trained and a continuous evolving trait determined innate tendency to attack toads. We applied this model in a population viability setting. The strategy reduced extinction probability only when heritability of innate aversion was low (<20%) and when trained mothers trained >70% of their young to avoid toads. When these conditions were met, genetic adaptation was slower, but rapid cultural adaptation kept the population extant while genetic adaptation was completed. To gain insight into the evolutionary dynamics (in which we saw a transitory peak in cultural adaptation over time), we also developed a simple analytical model of evolutionary dynamics. This model showed that the strength of natural selection declined as the cultural transmission rate increased and that adaptation proceeded only when the rate of cultural transmission was below a critical value determined by the relative levels of protection conferred by genetic versus cultural mechanisms. Together, our models showed that cultural adaptation can play a powerful role in preventing extinction, but that rates of cultural transmission need to be high for this to occur.

La adaptación cultural es un medio mediante el cual los conservacionistas pueden ayudar a las poblaciones a adaptarse a las amenazas. Un comportamiento aprendido puede proteger a un individuo de las amenazas y este comportamiento puede transmitirse horizontalmente (dentro de las generaciones) y verticalmente (entre generaciones), lo que otorga rápidamente una protección a nivel poblacional. Aunque esto es posible en teoría, aún no está claro si dichas manipulaciones funcionan dentro de un escenario de conservación; cuáles son las condiciones requeridas para que funcionen las manipulaciones; y cómo pueden afectar el proceso evolutivo. Examinamos modelos en los cuales una población puede adaptarse tanto con mecanismos genéticos como culturales. Nuestro trabajo estuvo motivado por la invasión de sapos altamente tóxicos (Rhinella marina) en todo el norte de Australia y las declinaciones resultantes de cuoles norteños (Dasyurus hallucatus), los cuales atacan y mueren envenenados por los sapos tóxicos. Analizamos si una estrategia de manejo novedoso en la cual los cuoles silvestres son entrenados para evitar a los sapos puede reducir la probabilidad de extinción. Usamos un modelo de simulación diseñado alrededor de la historia de vida de los cuoles. Dentro de las simulaciones, se entrenó a cuoles individuales y una característica en continua evolución determinó la tendencia innata para atacar a los sapos. Aplicamos este modelo en un escenario de viabilidad poblacional. La estrategia redujo la probabilidad de extinción sólo cuando la heredabilidad de la aversión innata fue baja (<20%) y cuando las madres entrenadas entrenaron a más del 70% de sus crías para evitar a los sapos. Cuando ambas condiciones fueron cumplidas, la adaptación genética fue más lenta pero la adaptación cultural rápida mantuvo a la población vigente mientras se completaba la adaptación genética. Para ganar conocimiento sobre las dinámicas evolutivas (en las cuales vimos un pico transitorio en la adaptación cultural a lo largo del tiempo) también desarrollamos un modelo analítico simple de las dinámicas evolutivas. Este modelo mostró que la fuerza de la selección natural declinó conforme incrementó la tasa de transmisión cultural y que la adaptación procedió solamente cuando la tasa de transmisión cultural estuvo por debajo de un valor crítico determinado por los niveles relativos de protección otorgados por los mecanismos genéticos contra los mecanismos evolutivos. En conjunto, nuestros modelos mostraron que la adaptación cultural puede jugar un papel importante en la prevención de la extinción, pero las tasas de transmisión cultural necesitan ser altas para que esto ocurra.